Speculation: 2017 NHL Draft Thread.

cptjeff

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I think we have Staal's replacement in house already in Nic Roy. Ras doesn't have the offense to replace Staal IMO as long as we continue to think of Staal as a top-6 guy...I think Rasmussen ends up a ~30ppy strictly bottom-6 guy in the NHL. He's purely a PP and trash-goal scorer even in juniors and that does not project well to the NHL.

I'm still not sold on Roy even making the NHL. Today's game is about skating, skating, skating, and his skating is better, but still quite weak. Maybe he indeed makes it, but right now I'm getting a very "Boychuck is going to be a star" vibe from this board's obsession with him.
 

GoldiFox

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I'm still not sold on Roy even making the NHL. Today's game is about skating, skating, skating, and his skating is better, but still quite weak. Maybe he indeed makes it, but right now I'm getting a very "Boychuck is going to be a star" vibe from this board's obsession with him.

Bill Peters has said multiple times that he think Roy is one of their best prospects and he will challenge for a spot next year. He talks about him more than Gauthier.

Roy is pretty much the polar opposite of Boychuk as far as having a game built for the NHL rather than Boychuk's dipsy-doodling around 17 year olds.
 

bleedgreen

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He's still a pretty mediocre skater. He's an interesting prospect for sure. Great hands and vision but if he can't get where needs to be in time, he won't play that kind of role. In today's game the fourth liners can skate, they just don't score. I'm not convinced he can play that role. I think he'll have to produce to be a full time guy. Gauthier is one that can make it if he can't score, he has better speed down the wing and could be a grinder if he had to. Roy has the more natural offensive gifts of the two.
 

cptjeff

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Of all the skills it takes to be a hockey player, skating is the one that would seem to be most easily fixed with hard work.

Uh, no. It's pretty strong muscle memory. If you have bad mechanics, and Roy does, it's very hard to unlearn the old mechanics and learn new ones when you've been gradually building towards the same stride for 15 years. We're not talking about a few tweaks from a powerskating coach. Yeah, you can add strength relatively easily, but putting more force into a bad stride does not make it a good stride.

Think about walking. If you were asked to radically change the way you walked tomorrow, you'd be able to do it consciously. But the instant you started trying to walk while thinking about something else, you'd lapse back into your old style of walking. That's what Roy is going to have to do to get his skating up to NHL par. Completely relearn how to walk. And it has to be automatic when under stress, when thinking about plays, when thinking about systems, when thinking about his defensive angles, when spotting a pass, when shooting.

Bill Peters may be optimistic about his chances of doing it. I'm not. Maybe Peters thinks that he's canny enough to play a high IQ game without having great speed or mobility a la Cory Stillman, but I have a hard time seeing that kind of player being successful in today's game.
 

MinJaBen

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I'm still not sold on Roy even making the NHL. Today's game is about skating, skating, skating, and his skating is better, but still quite weak. Maybe he indeed makes it, but right now I'm getting a very "Boychuck is going to be a star" vibe from this board's obsession with him.

He's still a pretty mediocre skater. He's an interesting prospect for sure. Great hands and vision but if he can't get where needs to be in time, he won't play that kind of role. In today's game the fourth liners can skate, they just don't score. I'm not convinced he can play that role. I think he'll have to produce to be a full time guy. Gauthier is one that can make it if he can't score, he has better speed down the wing and could be a grinder if he had to. Roy has the more natural offensive gifts of the two.

Uh, no. It's pretty strong muscle memory. If you have bad mechanics, and Roy does, it's very hard to unlearn the old mechanics and learn new ones when you've been gradually building towards the same stride for 15 years. We're not talking about a few tweaks from a powerskating coach. Yeah, you can add strength relatively easily, but putting more force into a bad stride does not make it a good stride.

Think about walking. If you were asked to radically change the way you walked tomorrow, you'd be able to do it consciously. But the instant you started trying to walk while thinking about something else, you'd lapse back into your old style of walking. That's what Roy is going to have to do to get his skating up to NHL par. Completely relearn how to walk. And it has to be automatic when under stress, when thinking about plays, when thinking about systems, when thinking about his defensive angles, when spotting a pass, when shooting.

Bill Peters may be optimistic about his chances of doing it. I'm not. Maybe Peters thinks that he's canny enough to play a high IQ game without having great speed or mobility a la Cory Stillman, but I have a hard time seeing that kind of player being successful in today's game.

These guys get it.
 

bleedgreen

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To me it's more than mechanics. I'm a big guy, I get how hard it is to be graceful on skates. Technique it all you like, can't make a ballerina out of a moose. It's about refining what you do have and finding a way to make the plays. I'm not betting against the guy, I'm just saying he's gotta carve a niche.
 

Vagrant

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I'm pretty bullish on players who can't skate as being severely limited in their impact, but I don't see that concern with Nicolas Roy. The visual of him skating isn't pretty, but he gets where he needs to be. One of the deceptive things about observing a guy at the WJC for example is that at lower levels, quick skaters tend to do better simply for being quick and a lot of those guys end up on those teams. The level of skating for Team Canada for example is going to be through the roof, because you're bringing in the most productive players from the CHL for a short tournament and it's littered with guys who are 6' and under. One shift you watch Jost, Barzal, Speers, Dube, etc. fly around out there like speed skaters and then over the boards comes Gauthier and Roy and the difference is incredibly easy to see. Plus, big kids just look a whole lot slower anyways but their stride lengths can be deceptive. I didn't get the same feeling watching Roy that I got with watching Rask in the same tournament years ago. Rask simply wasn't getting where he needed to be. Roy and Gauthier will never be burners, but they shouldn't have to be.
 

NotOpie

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My limited research the past couple weeks has me pretty high on the forwards in the Canes range. I like Pettersson, Suzuki, Tolvanen, and Vesalainen in that order. Suzuki has the IQ that the Canes seem to love. Tolvanen, as a pure upside scoring RW with a solid build, is headed to the NCAA which the Canes seem to be fond of. Vesalainen had everything the Canes need right now with potential to be a Nic Roy pick on steroids. I'd be pretty excited if the Canes' staff picked him as it's a vote of confidence on a very high-upside forward. Liljegren would follow similar logic for me. With the Canes hit rate on D-men I'd be excited to see what they could do with Liljegren's development.

For a while Tolvanen seemed a perfect Canes pick...he checked all the needs. But if you're worried about skating, then he's got a long way to go. His stride is apparently horrendous. And he's not a big guy. But he is a Finn...

Vesalainen could easily be a Canes type of player. The kid has got stupid skill and is a very good skater for somebody his size. The rap on him is that when he moved up to play with men, he didn't perform nearly as well. This is something that isn't all that rare, especially given that many youngsters prove to be deferential to the older players. His stock rose again given his dominating performance at the WJCs.

Petersson scares me as his body type has been characterized multiple times as one that won't support a lot of weight gain. Even if he was able to muster 10 or 15 pounds he'd still be considered "slight".

Suzuki seems like another type of Canes pick, although I don't get the characterizations as small - he's 5'11" and almost 185 lbs. That's the same size that Skinner and Crosby were coming into the league. He's super smart and as his coach has said, "...makes everybody around him a better player". We like those types.

Last season taught me not to fall in love with certain prospects, because we don't know who RF wants, if he's even going to use the pick, and we're only going to get 1 of them. Would rather read up on our player after we pick him.

How do you build up the appropriate amount of hype so that the invariable disappointing selection is the life crushing event it is supposed to be?

^^^ this guy gets it also

....said the president of the "no fun club".

To me it's more than mechanics. I'm a big guy, I get how hard it is to be graceful on skates. Technique it all you like, can't make a ballerina out of a moose. It's about refining what you do have and finding a way to make the plays. I'm not betting against the guy, I'm just saying he's gotta carve a niche.

I can only speak from my viewings of him at camp, Traverse City, and the WJCs. He was dramatically better this past Summer than the one before....now granted he was starting from an extremely low bar. But he was better in the videos that I watched of him this season in the Q and better still in the WJCs. The thing Roy seems to do well is identify where he needs to be, almost in an anticipatory manner and get to his spots effectively. I'm not expert on mechanics but his first Summer camp he had trouble making simple turns. By the end of camp he was already more able to make tighter moves. I think that the Rask comparison is very appropriate, given how Victor improved each and every year. He's never going to be speedy, but he's smart and understands angles and positioning. Roy's hands are better than 90% of the guys in our system right now. He may never be a 1st liner, but he does have middle 6 potential if he continues to advance his skating.
 

MinJaBen

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Suzuki seems like another type of Canes pick, although I don't get the characterizations as small - he's 5'11" and almost 185 lbs. That's the same size that Skinner and Crosby were coming into the league. He's super smart and as his coach has said, "...makes everybody around him a better player". We like those types.

I think Suzuki is one of several guys that could/should be in our range that fit that smart, skilled, hard working "Aho-ish" mold that I would love to get and I think fits Ron Francis's ideal. The others I would be perfectly happy to have at #12 would be Pettersson (I think he is least likely to fall to #12), Necas (probably the fastest of the bunch), and Andersson (probably the highest floor of the bunch).
 

NotOpie

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I think Suzuki is one of several guys that could/should be in our range that fit that smart, skilled, hard working "Aho-ish" mold that I would love to get and I think fits Ron Francis's ideal. The others I would be perfectly happy to have at #12 would be Pettersson (I think he is least likely to fall to #12), Necas (probably the fastest of the bunch), and Andersson (probably the highest floor of the bunch).

Lias Andersson is a guy I wouldn't be sad to get, but I'd probably be disappointed. While he's almost universally projected as a middle 6 NHLer, he also has a bit of a skating issue. He's the "sure thing" kind of pick. In a draft like this and where we are in our progression, if we don't trade the #12, I would hope we would swing for the fences with a boom or bust type of pick (even if that's not Ronnie's style). Heck I'd even consider trading down a few notches, pick up another asset (especially if we've moved a couple of picks prior to the draft).

Other guys you don't hear a lot about but who have lower floors and higher ceilings are Jason Robertson, Maxime Comtois, and Isaac Ratcliffe. Maybe a bit more of a bust factor, but their top end could be very high.
 

Hulkacaniac

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I know we never ever draft Russians, but what do you guys think about Klim Kostin? Super boom or bust I'd like go for as high upside as possible with our first.
 
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Moosetache

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I have been so incredibly high on Gauthier, am I missing something? 6'3 and 230 and can skate (I thought) with a great shot. What happened to the love on him?
 

MinJaBen

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I have been so incredibly high on Gauthier, am I missing something? 6'3 and 230 and can skate (I thought) with a great shot. What happened to the love on him?

He has all the tools, but he seems not yet ready to put it all together yet upstairs.
 

MinJaBen

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I know we never ever draft Russians, but what do you guys think about Klim Kostin? Super boom or bust I'd like go for as high upside as possible with our first.

He is a top five talent (in this draft), but an injury and some questions about him ever coming over to NA make him a bigger risk for some teams.
 

cptjeff

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He has all the tools, but he seems not yet ready to put it all together yet upstairs.

Given his size and strength, how much upstairs do you really need? Just tell him to skate to the net when he gets the puck and run over anyone in his way. Interference isn't a penalty anymore, so why not? :laugh:

But that wouldn't be Canes hockey now, would it?
 

GoldiFox

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Given his size and strength, how much upstairs do you really need? Just tell him to skate to the net when he gets the puck and run over anyone in his way. Interference isn't a penalty anymore, so why not? :laugh:

But that wouldn't be Canes hockey now, would it?

Find it odd you would say you don't see Nic Roy making it and then say Gauthier could make it with size and net presence alone. Nic Roy is huge and exceptional in front of the net. Far better than Gauthier. From what I have seen Gauthier is more likely to try and beat a guy outside with speed than run him over.
 

Joe McGrath

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Find it odd you would say you don't see Nic Roy making it and then say Gauthier could make it with size and net presence alone. Nic Roy is huge and exceptional in front of the net. Far better than Gauthier. From what I have seen Gauthier is more likely to try and beat a guy outside with speed than run him over.

Roy's future is at center though. He'd essentially need to beat out Wallmark for 4C to make the team which I don't think is likely. Gauthier could use a year in the AHL IMO but he could make the team as a natural wing/net front presence. Roy doing the same would stunt his development more.
 

NotOpie

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Roy's future is at center though. He'd essentially need to beat out Wallmark for 4C to make the team which I don't think is likely. Gauthier could use a year in the AHL IMO but he could make the team as a natural wing/net front presence. Roy doing the same would stunt his development more.

Both Gauthier and Roy could use a year in the AHL.

There are going to be some interesting choices to be made in Charlotte for next season.
 

GoldiFox

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Roy's future is at center though. He'd essentially need to beat out Wallmark for 4C to make the team which I don't think is likely. Gauthier could use a year in the AHL IMO but he could make the team as a natural wing/net front presence. Roy doing the same would stunt his development more.

I'd really prefer that the Canes keep a revolving door on the 4th line and cycle Charlotte players in-and-out. It worked really well at the end of last season. Those guys provide and jump and hunger that is refreshing as they fight for a spot.
 

Vagrant

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I know we never ever draft Russians, but what do you guys think about Klim Kostin? Super boom or bust I'd like go for as high upside as possible with our first.

Unfortunately, with his reticence to come to North America he's exceedingly unlikely to be a consideration for Carolina or any other team that actually needs the help sooner than later. Very similar to Kuznetsov's situation. While the Capitals did eventually get him to come over, they spent several years hand wringing over him. The biggest issue with Russian players is the limitations of the ELC. I know it's a very pro-player stance, but the structure of entry level contracts in the NHL are the least lucrative in pro sports. When players will have to take pay cuts to come to play in the NHL and have to play under the same contract for 3 years regardless of what their performance dictates, it can be an attractive option to stay in Russia and take merit pay. People can get very anti-Russian over that due to feeling the NHL has an entitlement to the world's best players, but sometimes the situation at home is too good to come play out those 3 years right away. I don't think Carolina is interested in playing that game. He'll go to a team that doesn't need the immediate help and can afford to wait an indefinite amount of time for his decision.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Both Gauthier and Roy could use a year in the AHL.

There are going to be some interesting choices to be made in Charlotte for next season.

I've thought it was pretty much a given that they'd be in the AHL next year, unless by chance they absolutely blow the doors off at camp. I'll be a bit surprised if either one of them, especially Roy, is in the NHL full time next year.
 

Hulkacaniac

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Unfortunately, with his reticence to come to North America he's exceedingly unlikely to be a consideration for Carolina or any other team that actually needs the help sooner than later. Very similar to Kuznetsov's situation. While the Capitals did eventually get him to come over, they spent several years hand wringing over him. The biggest issue with Russian players is the limitations of the ELC. I know it's a very pro-player stance, but the structure of entry level contracts in the NHL are the least lucrative in pro sports. When players will have to take pay cuts to come to play in the NHL and have to play under the same contract for 3 years regardless of what their performance dictates, it can be an attractive option to stay in Russia and take merit pay. People can get very anti-Russian over that due to feeling the NHL has an entitlement to the world's best players, but sometimes the situation at home is too good to come play out those 3 years right away. I don't think Carolina is interested in playing that game. He'll go to a team that doesn't need the immediate help and can afford to wait an indefinite amount of time for his decision.

I don't know if it changes anything, but I think I saw a quote from the combine where Kostin said he would be coming to NA next season. Just seems like him and Vesalainen are kind of similar big skilled wingers that had disappointing seasons but still a lot of potential. I don't know what will happen I just feel like we'll miss out on the high upside centers like Suzuki, pettersson, and necas.
 
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