Prospect Info: 2017 Draft

[theD86]

Defense or center. Center or defense. Makes no difference which they draft first. Both are areas of need.

 

[Frk It]

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

On the other hand, I bet you think Mantha is slow simply because he never puts a ton of effort into moving his feet.

But I don't even think Vilardi's skating is bad. He's not going to turn on the afterburners or anything, but he's more of an average skater than a bad one. It's unremarkable, and he keeps up with the play just fine. Not everyone has to be Larkin or AA. And given the way both of them outskate the play at times, maybe not everyone should be.

I am not sure that I get the reference to Mantha's skating in this context. Unlike Sheahan, Mantha is a great, great skater both technically and athletically and has very good acceleration, especially given his size. The engagement issues Mantha has have nothing to do with his actually skating and everything to do with actual effort. You might say the opposite with Riley.

Like you I don't worry about the mechanics of Valardi's skating as I do expect they will improve if he is serious about improving them. Unlike you, I do worry about his quickness and overall athleticism which are largely immutable, natural gifts and things that could really prevent him from playing center at the professional level.

Anyways, rationalizing away skating issues with prospects is a big mistake in my opinion.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Suzuki in the 2nd? 0 chance that happens. He's easily worthy of top 10. I personally have him 7th.

Patrick
Hischier
Vilardi
Glass
Mittlestadt
Liljegren
Suzuki

A couple of months ago he was considered an early second by a lot of people. But since his scoring has gone up and people have pulled their heads out of the sand you're right. He's rising further and further. Personally I would have him around 15.

Tier 1:1.Hischier 2.Patrick
Tier 1.5: 3.Liljegren
Tier 2: 4.Vilardi 5.Mittlestadt 6.Petterson 7.Heiskanen
Tier 3: 8.Glass 9.Tippett (mostly just because he's a winger and I don't want more wingers) 10.Necas 11.Valimaki 12.Makar.
Suzuki is in Tier 4 towards the top for me, but I'm not ready to rank the players past the top. There's just too many and it would be disingenuous as I haven't seen and read enough about everyone.
I'm no scout and the more I read and watch the more these flip around so take them with a grain of salt, but that's about how I rank the players with some consideration of the situation Detroit is in but not much. Tippett probably deserves to be around 5 but is much lower.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Like you I don't worry about the mechanics of Valardi's skating as I do expect they will improve if he is serious about improving them. Unlike you, I do worry about his quickness and overall athleticism which are largely immutable, natural gifts and things that could really prevent him from playing center at the professional level.

Anyways, rationalizing away skating issues with prospects is a big mistake in my opinion.

I think it's fair to worry about his quickness, but I'm not so sure on his general athleticism. Every time I've seen him, he's been a strong, physically aggressive kid who wins battles. Sure, he does lose some foot races at this point, and that is a wart. But no player in this draft comes without that kind of a wart, and it's all about what you can tolerate and where you can project that player. There's a chance that Vilardi might not be able to improve his skating, but I think there's just as much a chance that several other guys might not turn out. Heiskanen might not find his offense, Mittelstadt might not ever become capable enough defensively and structurally to match his skillset (especially at center), all that kind of stuff. We could go through pretty much every player past pick #2 and do that. Virtually everybody in this draft is a little flawed.

But I'm not convinced that mediocre skating is a worse defect than any of the others. Too many successful guys in the league today have markedly improved their skating with time and help. He's not ever going to be an elite skater, but I have little doubt that he could become a league average skater. And the rest of his game is far too advanced to ignore, IMO.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I am not sure that I get the reference to Mantha's skating in this context. Unlike Sheahan, Mantha is a great, great skater both technically and athletically and has very good acceleration, especially given his size. The engagement issues Mantha has have nothing to do with his actually skating and everything to do with actual effort. You might say the opposite with Riley.

This is becoming off-topic, but I'll explain. This was just a joke about how posters for the longest time thought Mantha was a poor skater because he doesn't skate hard. We had tons and tons of posts about it. I still maintain that Sheahan has the very same problem, but the DRW care far more about skating hard on the defensive end of the puck than the offensive end, and so he gets away with it.

 

[Frk It]

 

[newfy]

Makar is risky but anywhere after 4 or 5 I would be happy with him. Same with Middlestadt. Both are just really skilled and could turn out to be really good

 

[Marky9er]

Makar is risky but anywhere after 4 or 5 I would be happy with him. Same with Middlestadt. Both are just really skilled and could turn out to be really good

I have a feeling Mittelstadt could be a steal. It's his draft year but he kind of did his own thing going back to HS to be with the boys. He's obviously got the toolbox, it's just a matter of time until he goes to work full time. Just have the feeling if he were playing for the London Knights he'd be a top profile guy right with Patrick and Hischier.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I have a feeling Mittelstadt could be a steal. It's his draft year but he kind of did his own thing going back to HS to be with the boys. He's obviously got the toolbox, it's just a matter of time until he goes to work full time. Just have the feeling if he were playing for the London Knights he'd be a top profile guy right with Patrick and Hischier.

He's certainly doing very well in the USHL. He's still putting up a ton of points at a higher level of competition, so I think that might help his stock.

It's kind of a shame Makar can't go play a couple of games in a higher league somewhere. It would probably do the same for him.

 

[Frk It]

I have a feeling Mittelstadt could be a steal. It's his draft year but he kind of did his own thing going back to HS to be with the boys. He's obviously got the toolbox, it's just a matter of time until he goes to work full time. Just have the feeling if he were playing for the London Knights he'd be a top profile guy right with Patrick and Hischier.

Been feeling this way for awhile. He's the guy I'm hoping for most, assuming we don't get #1 or #2. I think he's passed Liljegren for me.

 

[Marky9er]

Been feeling this way for awhile. He's the guy I'm hoping for most, assuming we don't get #1 or #2. I think he's passed Liljegren for me.

Obviously I am a very casual observer, and he's one of the hardest prospects for me to get a look at...but all in all he seems to have less risk/questions than others. I haven't really thought about him vs Liljegren, I'm just nervous both would be off the board. I'd feel better if Dallas and Vancouver pick up some W's.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

I'm warming up to picking Mittelstadt if Detroit doesn't get top 2.

I'm not sold, but he is very talented.

Liljegren would be on the same level for me.

Would be fine with either.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I think it's fair to worry about his quickness, but I'm not so sure on his general athleticism. Every time I've seen him, he's been a strong, physically aggressive kid who wins battles. Sure, he does lose some foot races at this point, and that is a wart. But no player in this draft comes without that kind of a wart, and it's all about what you can tolerate and where you can project that player. There's a chance that Vilardi might not be able to improve his skating, but I think there's just as much a chance that several other guys might not turn out. Heiskanen might not find his offense, Mittelstadt might not ever become capable enough defensively and structurally to match his skillset (especially at center), all that kind of stuff. We could go through pretty much every player past pick #2 and do that. Virtually everybody in this draft is a little flawed.

But I'm not convinced that mediocre skating is a worse defect than any of the others. Too many successful guys in the league today have markedly improved their skating with time and help. He's not ever going to be an elite skater, but I have little doubt that he could become a league average skater. And the rest of his game is far too advanced to ignore, IMO.

My concerns about Vilardi are more of a statement about this draft class than probably anything. I find myself thinking...here we are with a chance to draft in the top 5 and I am worrying about the same sorts of warts I am worried about when we pick in the bottom third of the first round. I do agree that everyone beyond the top two have their share or warts; at least more so than most classes based upon where people are expected to get picked.

My ho humness of Vilardi also probably stems from the fact that I don't expect him to play center as a professional (solely based on skating). He will clearly make the NHL with his size, skill and IQ, but I am all but certain it will be on the wing. Sadly, I feel the same way about the surrounding company (Pettersson, Necas and Mittelstadt) to varying degrees for different reasons. Beyond the top two I think Glass is the most pure center of the bunch.

If we take him, I hope to eat a lot of crow.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

My concerns about Vilardi are more of a statement about this draft class than probably anything. I find myself thinking...here we are with a chance to draft in the top 5 and I am worrying about the same sorts of warts I am worried about when we pick in the bottom third of the first round. I do agree that everyone beyond the top two have their share or warts; at least more so than most classes based upon where people are expected to get picked.

My ho humness of Vilardi also probably stems from the fact that I don't expect him to play center as a professional (solely based on skating). He will clearly make the NHL with his size, skill and IQ, but I am all but certain it will be on the wing. Sadly, I feel the same way about the surrounding company (Pettersson, Necas and Mittelstadt) to varying degrees for different reasons. Beyond the top two I think Glass is the most pure center of the bunch.

If we take him, I hope to eat a lot of crow.

Opinions not unfounded.

I don't like Vilardi's skating. Mittelstadt might end up a winger, but a damn talented one. Necas as well.

 

[Frk It]

Saw a mock of us taking Rasmussen, and Button has Poehling ranked #9. Hoping we don't go for either of those guys.

 

[jkutswings]

Saw a mock of us taking Rasmussen, and Button has Poehling ranked #9. Hoping we don't go for either of those guys.

My tiers (including both skill and need) are something like:

Patrick/Hischier

Vilardi/Liljgren/Middlestadt

Tippet/Necas/Glass/Makar/Heiskenen/Suzuki

Rasmussen/Tolvanen/Petterson/Valimaki/Andersson/Foote

Everybody else


So if Detroit ends up with one of my top 5 guys, I'll have no complaints.

 

[Frk It]

RD 1: Mittelstadt
RD 2: Timmins
RD 3: Heponiemi
RD 3: Morrand
RD 3: Farrance
RD 3: Rasanen

I'd also strongly consider packaging picks together to trade up for another 1st, and get Suzuki or Valimaki with that pick.

 

[theD86]

There's always a surprise/shock every year in the draft. I hope the Wings get a kid who can step in and contribute sooner than later. As I said before Defense or center. Center or defense in round 1.

In round 3 I hope they go all defense and build from the back out.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

RD 1: Mittelstadt
RD 2: Timmins
RD 3: Heponiemi
RD 3: Morrand
RD 3: Farrance
RD 3: Rasanen

I'd also strongly consider packaging picks together to trade up for another 1st, and get Suzuki or Valimaki with that pick.

Mittelstadt, Timmins and Heponiemi would be a great haul for this draft, but I think we may need a late first rounder to get Timmins.

 

[Frk It]

Mittelstadt, Timmins and Heponiemi would be a great haul for this draft, but I think we may need a late first rounder to get Timmins.

Yeahhh, I could see Timmins moving into RD 1 territory, and Heponiemi into RD 2 territory. To be honest. So this list was somewhat "ideal". But I could also see Heponiemi falling despite his production because of his size.

Not sure what the knock is on Timmins, to be honest. Production is there. Size is sufficient. Haven't heard of any issues with his skating.

Timmins and Valimaki have great production, over 6'0", and not ranked top 10 in a weak draft class... tbh, it doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[Marky9er]

My tiers (including both skill and need) are something like:

Patrick/Hischier

Vilardi/Liljgren/Middlestadt

Tippet/Necas/Glass/Makar/Heiskenen/Suzuki

Rasmussen/Tolvanen/Petterson/Valimaki/Andersson/Foote

Everybody else


So if Detroit ends up with one of my top 5 guys, I'll have no complaints.

This is basically exactly how I feel about the draft. I think Tippett deserves to be in the second group, considering the discussion about which centers will be centers or ultimately wingers. I think Tippett could easily become a Pacioretty 30+ a year type of player. Potential 40 goal guy is nothing to shake a stick at, but these tiers show my wants as well.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Yeahhh, I could see Timmins moving into RD 1 territory, and Heponiemi into RD 2 territory. To be honest. So this list was somewhat "ideal". But I could also see Heponiemi falling despite his production because of his size.

Not sure what the knock is on Timmins, to be honest. Production is there. Size is sufficient. Haven't heard of any issues with his skating.

Timmins and Valimaki have great production, over 6'0", and not ranked top 10 in a weak draft class... tbh, it doesn't make any sense to me.

Productive but not dynamic maybe...which is how I see Valimaki too

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Timmins and Valimaki have great production, over 6'0", and not ranked top 10 in a weak draft class... tbh, it doesn't make any sense to me.

Especially with how strong a predictor points per game is for NHL defensemen. I don't really get it. I mean, I understand Valimaki has been inconsistent, and has some work to do on his overall game, but he should have significant offensive upside. There's nobody on that team who's carrying him, and there's a decent argument that Rasmussen gets more out of Valimaki's presence than the other way around.

He's still one of my top guys. Like the minute Vilardi is off the board, I'm looking to Liljegren, Valimaki, and maybe Heiskanen. Probably in that order, but I'm not 100%.

 

[jkutswings]

This is basically exactly how I feel about the draft. I think Tippett deserves to be in the second group, considering the discussion about which centers will be centers or ultimately wingers. I think Tippett could easily become a Pacioretty 30+ a year type of player. Potential 40 goal guy is nothing to shake a stick at, but these tiers show my wants as well.

Oh I don't disagree that Tippet is right up there in terms of talent. I just think that this roster is so bereft of creativity on offense, that unless the guy somehow shatters expectations and tracks to become the next Ovechkin, there will be nobody here to help him drive the bus, and his potential will largely go to waste...at least until Detroit gets another good offensive center or two.