Speculation: 2017-18 Roster Discussion - Part 5

[HoseEmDown]

It's actually pretty comforting that all our major bases are still covered at that point. It's really secondary/depth players we're gonna need, and those are easier to acquire.

That's as long as nobody falls off badly. The defense is still a huge question and we would be relying on a bunch of 30 year olds for offense.

 

[Sky04]

Well... if we wanted to load up, it would give us this year and next year to REALLY load up.

Huge salary relief for us, because dropping Callahan and having McDonagh at 2.5m is just stupid good, but why would the Rangers do it, Serg's great but they could probably field a better offer. Taking on Callahan is a negative for a seller and retaining on McD as well? lol.

 

[DFC]

I'm gonna pose a serious question to those who are concerned with giving up too much.

If the goal is to just remain a contender then why should we ever.... EVER Cooper over the next few years? We'll make the playoffs! But what if we don't win? We just say awww shucks maybe next year we've got prospects?

Teams who don't maximize their potential for the best possible roster seldom win it all

Have the teams who've won it all lately been the ones making a huge splash at the deadline? Because it feels like most of those "all in" teams get eliminated early.

Seems like the teams who win cups make shrewd deals when they arise, but aren't really loading up on deadline day.

Who was the last big "all in" type TDL acquisition that actually helped his team win a cup? I mean on the level of McDonagh. The guy who comes to mind is Marian Gaborik with the Kings. Seems like every year whoever loads up most becomes instant favorites, only to fall well short.

 

[These Are The Days]

Have the teams who've won it all lately been the ones making a huge splash at the deadline? Because it feels like most of those "all in" teams get eliminated early.

Seems like the teams who win cups make shrewd deals when they arise, but aren't really loading up on deadline day.

Who was the last big "all in" type TDL acquisition that actually helped his team win a cup? I mean on the level of McDonagh. The guy who comes to mind is Marian Gaborik with the Kings. Seems like every year whoever loads up most becomes instant favorites, only to fall well short.

That depends. The "all in teams" don't always win but it helps their chances. Off the top of my head

Pens dealt for Hossa and got to the SCF -and I cannot argue they'd have made it that far without him
NYR dealt for Nash and sustained incredible success through his tenure
Lightning dealt for Sydor and won in 2004 -I cannot argue we'd have won it without him
You mentioned Gaborik to LA -I cannot argue they'd have won without him
The Oilers traded for Pronger and although he wasn't a TDL player they made the SCF - No way they make it that far without him
The Penguins traded for Kessel and he CERTAINLY helped them win 2 Cups

I'm not trying to say we "need" to make a move but to be perfectly blunt I put our odds as follows

Round 1 vs wild card or Toronto 75% confident we win
Round 2 vs Boston - I'm about 50% confident we win
Round 3 vs Metro winner- I'm about 40% confident we win if it's a pain in the ass team like New Jersey or if it's Pittsburgh. I'm confident in 50/50 if we play the Caps
Round 4 vs West winner - 65% sure we win it all because we've historically matched up very well against the West and depending on who we face it could be over in 5 and I really do think we can catch a lucky break this year unless it's Nashville or Winnipeg

It's not that I don't think we can win. It's that I'm not even sure we're making it out of the East.

Going all in helps the odds and if we don't win it this year it's fine. We don't have to panic. It just means we come back next year with a huge chip on our shoulder and WITH an improved defense.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Huge salary relief for us, because dropping Callahan and having McDonagh at 2.5m is just stupid good, but why would the Rangers do it, Serg's great but they could probably field a better offer. Taking on Callahan is a negative for a seller and retaining on McD as well? lol.

Because in a rebuild the cap dump means nothing to them. The covitted asset of the future is the score. If they can get an asset they might not have been able to without taking a salary dump it might be worth it.

 

[The Gongshow]

Yeah I'd rather not wait till our core players are in their 30's and hope our prospects pan out when we have a team thats capable of winning right now.

 

[HoseEmDown]

That depends. The "all in teams" don't always win but it helps their chances. Off the top of my head

Pens dealt for Hossa and got to the SCF -and I cannot argue they'd have made it that far without him
NYR dealt for Nash and sustained incredible success through his tenure
Lightning dealt for Sydor and won in 2004 -I cannot argue we'd have won it without him
You mentioned Gaborik to LA -I cannot argue they'd have won without him
The Oilers traded for Pronger and although he wasn't a TDL player they made the SCF - No way they make it that far without him
The Penguins traded for Kessel and he CERTAINLY helped them win 2 Cups

I'm not trying to say we "need" to make a move but to be perfectly blunt I put our odds as follows

Round 1 vs wild card or Toronto 75% confident we win
Round 2 vs Boston - I'm about 50% confident we win
Round 3 vs Metro winner- I'm about 40% confident we win if it's a pain in the ass team like New Jersey or if it's Pittsburgh. I'm confident in 50/50 if we play the Caps
Round 4 vs West winner - 65% sure we win it all because we've historically matched up very well against the West and depending on who we face it could be over in 5 and I really do think we can catch a lucky break this year unless it's Nashville or Winnipeg

It's not that I don't think we can win. It's that I'm not even sure we're making it out of the East.

Going all in helps the odds and if we don't win it this year it's fine. We don't have to panic. It just means we come back next year with a huge chip on our shoulder and WITH an improved defense.

None of those moves were really all in one's though. Nobody was trading a huge chunk of their future in any deal. The Hossa and Nash deal included a 1st, I don't think anybody would have any issues with us trading our 1st. The top prospects were Esposito and Erixon who were both trending towards busts. The players involved were Namestnikov level. So a 1st + Namestnikov + Erne type of a deal if you want to compare to what it would look like from us. No top prospects, no multiple high picks, no high end yoing roster players. I'm all for moving certain pieces but there's an extent to what I'd give up.

 

[Sky04]

Have the teams who've won it all lately been the ones making a huge splash at the deadline? Because it feels like most of those "all in" teams get eliminated early.

Seems like the teams who win cups make shrewd deals when they arise, but aren't really loading up on deadline day.

Who was the last big "all in" type TDL acquisition that actually helped his team win a cup? I mean on the level of McDonagh. The guy who comes to mind is Marian Gaborik with the Kings. Seems like every year whoever loads up most becomes instant favorites, only to fall well short.

Except McDonagh isn't a rental, we'd have him all of next season and chance at retention. Not only do we get someone who's 3 years younger and does Stralman's job but better but it also doesn't force us to resign Stralman at 32 years old at his leverage out of desperation. Seems like everyone focused on the "risks" while the reward is not only a cup but a foreseeable top-4 of Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev and Stralman (that's what? only rivaled by Nashville?) allowing kids to eat easy minutes instead depending on them like some are planning. Foote, Masin, Cerenek, Hajek won't be any better than current Dotchin, KK, Sergachev defensively when they come up either, that's even if they make it and we'd run into the same problems this year - depending on inexperienced kids to bail us out cause we're too cheap.

I don't think Sergachev or Point is on the table nor should they be but don't think losing Foote or Howden or both would detriment us in any major way.

Done with stopgaps - they've proven time and time again to just break before expiry, we already know we need defensive help, getting a rental like J.Johnson just means we'd have to go through the same thing over again next year or dip into overpriced free agents.

 

[The Macho King]

Except McDonagh isn't a rental, we'd have him all of next season and chance at retention. Not only do we get someone who's 3 years younger and does Stralman's job but better but it also doesn't force us to resign Stralman at 32 years old at his leverage out of desperation. Seems like everyone focused on the "risks" while the reward is not only a cup for a foreseeable top-4 of Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev and Stralman (that's what? only rivaled by Nashville?) allowing kids to eat easy minutes instead depending on them like some are planning. Foote, Masin, Cerenek, Hajek won't be any better than current Dotchin, KK, Sergachev defensively when they come up either, that's even if they make it and we'd run into the same problems this year - depending on inexperienced kids to bail us out cause we're too cheap.

I don't think Sergachev or Point is on the table nor should they be but don't think losing Foote or Howden or both would detriment us in any major way.

Agree with all of this. Also - there is no guarantee guys like Howden or Foote ever make the team. Neither have shown they are "can't miss" prospects, and even then, at C we have guys like Stephens and Cirelli who are comparable to Howden, and Cernak probably has a shorter path to the NHL than Foote as of now. We're talking about guys who *may* make the team in two years and be significant contributors in 3-4 years at the earliest (while still having to outplay other guys in the system).

What do you guys think the end game is of having our prospect depth? There are only 18 skater spots on the team. We have a lot of guys jockeying for position. The best way to use our depth is to fill in holes at this point. And the crazy thing is, trading Foote and Howden doesn't even "gut" our system - we still have guys that could end up being good contributors in the system.

 

[Sky04]

I'll add that I doubt Yzerman trades for McD or Karlsson or whatever big name without the strong intention of resigning, this isn't about a do or die one year as presumed. If they resign that solves the D-problem for nearly half a decade - which is a huge "reward".

 

[The Gongshow]

Agree with all of this. Also - there is no guarantee guys like Howden or Foote ever make the team. Neither have shown they are "can't miss" prospects, and even then, at C we have guys like Stephens and Cirelli who are comparable to Howden, and Cernak probably has a shorter path to the NHL than Foote as of now. We're talking about guys who *may* make the team in two years and be significant contributors in 3-4 years at the earliest (while still having to outplay other guys in the system).

What do you guys think the end game is of having our prospect depth? There are only 18 skater spots on the team. We have a lot of guys jockeying for position. The best way to use our depth is to fill in holes at this point. And the crazy thing is, trading Foote and Howden doesn't even "gut" our system - we still have guys that could end up being good contributors in the system.

Agreed, people are relying to heavily on our guys who can make the team better 4-6 years from now? While we'd be paying our top guys now big money when they're on their downslide.

Theres also a good chance we can resign McD after its all said and done, so it might not be a rental but even if it is its still 1.4 years of better defence. Not many teams would be able to match our core of 77,6,27,98.

Because they aren't the issue, its upgrading Sustr, Dotchin, Coburn THATS what we need done. McD is that upgrade and then some.

 

[Todd1a]

See safe is life for yzerman Steve Yzerman’s Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline strategy primer

 

[The Macho King]

See safe is life for yzerman Steve Yzerman’s Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline strategy primer

That line of thinking completely ignores the Coburn trade. If we grab McD we will probably recoup some assets by dealing either Coburn or Koekkoek as well.

 

[Todd1a]

That line of thinking completely ignores the Coburn trade. If we grab McD we will probably recoup some assets by dealing either Coburn or Koekkoek as well.

He said he would not have traded for coburn with out getting the picks for Connolly

 

[HoseEmDown]

When Sergachev starts playing the right side I'd believe McDonagh might be on the way. He's played the left the whole year and they don't seem to want to move him to the right even for Dotchin or Sustr. Bringing in a left D just pushes Sergachev to the 3rd pairing and if you plan on resigning McDonagh what's the goal for him? I'm all for upgrading the defense and moving certain futures but it needs to make sense. McDonagh when we have capable defenders and a 4th in Koekkoek doesn't. I'd look at Tanev, not the biggest fan but fits more a need as a RD, or Faulk, struggling this year but would add another offensive element. There's options out there especially if we are willing to spend.

 

[The Macho King]

He said he would not have traded for coburn with out getting the picks for Connolly

Okay? He'll get picks for KK/Coburn to offset the loss. Also we gave up a 1st and a young roster player - 2 2nds doesn't offset that.

 

[JAY7791]

I was watching Sergachev on Instagram live a few months ago and he said he prefers RD over left, for what thats worth. Obviously the NHL is different but say we got McDonagh, Serg would probably be open to moving over to RD, coaching staff another thing.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Okay? He'll get picks for KK/Coburn to offset the loss. Also we gave up a 1st and a young roster player - 2 2nds doesn't offset that.

We had an extra 1st that year from the St. Louis trade. And you can probably package two 2nd's to get a late 1st.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I don't give a frog's fat ass what side he plays, if we got McD that would give us TWO awesome anchors for our top 4 pairings. Enviable by most teams in the league.

 

[The Gongshow]

When Sergachev starts playing the right side I'd believe McDonagh might be on the way. He's played the left the whole year and they don't seem to want to move him to the right even for Dotchin or Sustr. Bringing in a left D just pushes Sergachev to the 3rd pairing and if you plan on resigning McDonagh what's the goal for him? I'm all for upgrading the defense and moving certain futures but it needs to make sense. McDonagh when we have capable defenders and a 4th in Koekkoek doesn't. I'd look at Tanev, not the biggest fan but fits more a need as a RD, or Faulk, struggling this year but would add another offensive element. There's options out there especially if we are willing to spend.

Would that be such a bad thing for Serg to play the 3rd pair for a bit?

He'd still get his average ice time, he'd get easier matchups and still be learning the game. HE'S 19!!!! He doesn't need to play big minutes yet, thats not what he's here for. Hedman is still THE GUY.

Plus if he had 3 solid pairs does it really matter who's on the 1st or 2nd if we spread the ice time out evenly.

look at Nashville they have 4 studs and move them around a bit with the bottom 2. Subban plays on the "2nd pair" and he's producing much better than he did as a #1 in MTL. We can easily spread ice time around so someone like McD doesn't feel left out wondering why he would want to be under Hedman in Tampa

 

[Todd1a]

I don't give a frog's fat ass what side he plays, if we got McD that would give us TWO awesome anchors for our top 4 pairings. Enviable by most teams in the league.

To be fair many ranger fans did say that McD has played the right side before and he can play that side just fine

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Would that be such a bad thing for Serg to play the 3rd pair for a bit?

He'd still get his average ice time, he'd get easier matchups and still be learning the game. HE'S 19!!!! He doesn't need to play big minutes yet, thats not what he's here for. Hedman is still THE GUY.

Plus if he had 3 solid pairs does it really matter who's on the 1st or 2nd if we spread the ice time out evenly.

look at Nashville they have 4 studs and move them around a bit with the bottom 2. Subban plays on the "2nd pair" and he's producing much better than he did as a #1 in MTL. We can easily spread ice time around so someone like McD doesn't feel left out wondering why he would want to be under Hedman in Tampa

I think he knows his place behind Hedman. Almost all defensemen in the league take a back seat to him.

 

[The Gongshow]

I don't give a frog's fat ass what side he plays, if we got McD that would give us TWO awesome anchors for our top 4 pairings. Enviable by most teams in the league.

I think the only other team that could argue they have a better D core would be Nashville, who has the best D core in the league

 

[HoseEmDown]

Would that be such a bad thing for Serg to play the 3rd pair for a bit?

He'd still get his average ice time, he'd get easier matchups and still be learning the game. HE'S 19!!!! He doesn't need to play big minutes yet, thats not what he's here for. Hedman is still THE GUY.

Plus if he had 3 solid pairs does it really matter who's on the 1st or 2nd if we spread the ice time out evenly.

look at Nashville they have 4 studs and move them around a bit with the bottom 2. Subban plays on the "2nd pair" and he's producing much better than he did as a #1 in MTL. We can easily spread ice time around so someone like McD doesn't feel left out wondering why he would want to be under Hedman in Tampa

Yes, we keep sheltering he will never develop fully. And how long is a bit? We bring in McDonagh and resign him then it's 5 years before he gets off the 3rd pair. We keep him protected too long and he turns into Koekkoek who never becomes anything close to what we hoped.

Hedman was playing top minutes at 19, he was getting tough assignments. Look at McAvoy who was drafted a few spots after Sergachev, he's getting top minutes and thriving. If we give Sergachev some actual responsibility he may show us we don't need McDonagh. I'm all for giving our guys a chance till it's apparent we need to find someone else. I want to see Sergachev and Koekkoek playing more and not McDonagh. I think we can win with them and we don't need a LD. On the right Dotchin sucks and Sustr is ok as a 6/7, I'm all for a fix on that side.

 

[Sky04]

Yes, we keep sheltering he will never develop fully. And how long is a bit? We bring in McDonagh and resign him then it's 5 years before he gets off the 3rd pair. We keep him protected too long and he turns into Koekkoek who never becomes anything close to what we hoped.

Hedman was playing top minutes at 19, he was getting tough assignments. Look at McAvoy who was drafted a few spots after Sergachev, he's getting top minutes and thriving. If we give Sergachev some actual responsibility he may show us we don't need McDonagh. I'm all for giving our guys a chance till it's apparent we need to find someone else. I want to see Sergachev and Koekkoek playing more and not McDonagh. I think we can win with them and we don't need a LD. On the right Dotchin sucks and Sustr is ok as a 6/7, I'm all for a fix on that side.

We did, he sucked when Hedman was out.