2016 Draft Thread VII (Day 2, Saturday)

[Curufinwe]

I can't see how you but Hart above kids that have proven it at some level.

I mean I could probably make a damn good case that Sandstrom is our #1 prospect, he's played in a way more difficult league than all of the kids, doing it at a younger age and was arguably more successful at it.

The AHL is a difficult league to play in for a goalie, particularly if you're on the recent Phantoms teams.

Stolie not only played in plenty of back to backs, he played three games in three nights on more than one occassion.

 

[Hiesenberg]

The AHL is a difficult league to play in for a goalie, particularly if you're on the recent Phantoms teams.

Stolie not only played in plenty of back to backs, he played three games in three nights on more than one occassion.

22 year old in the AHL vs an 18 year old in the SEL. I'm giving the nod to Sandstrom, but that's just me.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

22 year old in the AHL vs an 18 year old in the SEL. I'm giving the nod to Sandstrom, but that's just me.

Hard to tell unless you are watching a lot of these games, which I know that everyone on here but me watches every LV and SEL game. The SEL seems to over inflate goalies stats so it is hard to get a handle on which of the goalies will translate to the NHL and which won't, because going off their stat lines it would seem they will all succeed. Not saying Sandstrom is going to fail, just that I think it is hard to give him an edge unless he was really truly dominating, which does not appear to be the case.

 

[Curufinwe]

21 year old who played 47 games with a .916% SV% versus 18 year old with 26 games at .904.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I said I could make a case. I attempted at making one. Its still my opinion. Time will tell.

 

[Hiesenberg]

21 year old who played 47 games with a .916% SV% versus 18 year old with 26 games at .904.

I like Stolarz. I hope he's awesome, but I like how you cleverly didn't put his atrocious GAA. I know he's not to blame. I'm just busting balls.

 

[Curufinwe]

Only idiots judge a goalie by their GAA instead of their SV%. I wouldn't use GAA to judge any goalie in any league.

I like how you tried to make Stolarz seem four years older than Sansdtrom when these are their birthdays:

ANTHONY STOLARZ USA
BIRTHYEAR 1994-01-20

FELIX SANDSTRÖM Sweden
BIRTHYEAR 1997-01-12

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Goalies are so hard to figure out.

Pedigree-wise, you could argue for Hart -- WHL goaltender of the year at age 17.

On the other hand, Sandstrom did what not many goalies at 18 have ever done in Sweden's top league.

And Stolarz, though drafted as a complete project, is the oldest of the three and made the AHL all-star game.

Then you've got Lyon, who dominated his last two seasons at Yale and is the oldest of the bunch.

Beats me. It's a grab bag at the moment with arguments for each. You'll know a lot more after this season.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Only idiots judge a goalie by their GAA instead of their SV%. I wouldn't use GAA to judge any goalie in any league.

I like how you tried to make Stolarz seem four years older than Sansdtrom when these are their birthdays:

ANTHONY STOLARZ USA
BIRTHYEAR 1994-01-20

FELIX SANDSTRÖM Sweden
BIRTHYEAR 1997-01-12

Didn't somebody say he was 22? I assumed Sandstrom was 18.

Relax. I still like Sandstrom a little more. Just something about him that I liked. And I think ignoring a GAA completely might be a little dangerous, if its like 3.50, there MAY be a problem.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Weird coincidence.

Stolarz 15th in the AHL in SV%
Sandstrom 16th in the SHL in SV%

Stolarz 20th in the AHL in GAA
Sandstrom 17th in the SHL in GAA

I mean they aren't spot for spot, but they are oddly close in their rankings.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I will say there's something about Stolarz where I've never quite trusted him. Can't really put my finger on it. But he sure has size and athleticism and speaks intelligently. And I know he was drafted on raw physical potential alone and he has been improving.

I'll be curious to see the battle between Stolarz and Lyon this season and who shakes out on top with the Phantoms.

If I had to bet on one of the four goalies right now, I'd bet on Hart or Sandstrom, but like I said it really is a grab bag and goalies are notoriously tough to judge.

 

[IvanProvorov]

Wasn't a fan of the goalie pick. If we need a goalie at some point seems you can just trade a 2nd rounder for them.
Lots of good players left when he was picked too. Oh well. I'm sure he'll be a good player one day.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I don't even think you can say goalies are really that cheap anymore. Jones, Lehner, & Andersen all cost a late first rounder these last two years. Even Elliott cost a second rounder+ for one year of his service before he's a UFA.

 

[Striiker]

You can get one for a second, but it's not going to be a top quality one. We got lucky that Mason worked out when we got him cheap. Shouldn't expect that to happen again.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

#tomek2020

 

[Stizzle]

Stolarz and Lyon are both ahead of him. They had strong years at a higher level.

I have to agree with what some of the others said. Sandstrom is definitely ahead of Lyon for me. Hart is as well.

Edit: As an aside, can we finally seperate the goalies from the skaters when we do the voting poll? It just makes sense to me.

 

[Appleyard]

Hard to tell unless you are watching a lot of these games, which I know that everyone on here but me watches every LV and SEL game. The SEL seems to over inflate goalies stats so it is hard to get a handle on which of the goalies will translate to the NHL and which won't, because going off their stat lines it would seem they will all succeed. Not saying Sandstrom is going to fail, just that I think it is hard to give him an edge unless he was really truly dominating, which does not appear to be the case.

It is the opposite actually. The average Sv% year to year in the SHL is around ~.905-906%. There are not as many shots in general but a lot of breakaways, 2v1's & 3v2's compared to the NHL. Of course in turn that means it is harder to put up a ~.910+sv% than it is in North America.

His sv% was pretty much SHL average to end the year. Though for 3/4 of the season above it. The thing is though is the SHL is the 3rd best mens league in the world... it is very rare an 18 year old even gets a game... let alone is split starter and puts up average numbers on a pretty poor defensive team.


That being said I would rate Stolarz ahead now. He is further along in his development, less can really go wrong going forward, is a physical freak and is close to the NHL already.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

It is the opposite actually. The average Sv% year to year in the SHL is around ~.905-906%. There are not as many shots in general but a lot of breakaways, 2v1's & 3v2's compared to the NHL. Of course in turn that means it is harder to put up a ~.910+sv% than it is in North America.

His sv% was pretty much SHL average to end the year. Though for 3/4 of the season above it. The thing is though is the SHL is the 3rd best mens league in the world... it is very rare an 18 year old even gets a game... let alone is split starter and puts up average numbers on a pretty poor defensive team.


That being said I would rate Stolarz ahead now. He is further along in his development, less can really go wrong going forward, is a physical freak and is close to the NHL already.

Really? Guess I was just making that assumption for the lower offense that comes out of the SEL.

 

[McNasty]

They had 3-2nd round picks, I don't mind spending one on a goalie. When you look at the money being given out to average starters, if you can find a reliable starter and bring him through your system you can save a lot of cap space.

 

[Curufinwe]

I have to agree with what some of the others said. Sandstrom is definitely ahead of Lyon for me. Hart is as well.

Edit: As an aside, can we finally seperate the goalies from the skaters when we do the voting poll? It just makes sense to me.

You may want to start a topic/poll on whether we should do that.

Personally, I like having them together for the sake of comparison with previous years.

 

[tade]

I have to agree with what some of the others said. Sandstrom is definitely ahead of Lyon for me. Hart is as well.

Edit: As an aside, can we finally seperate the goalies from the skaters when we do the voting poll? It just makes sense to me.

Agreed. I am all for it, then we could do separate polls with goalies. We are now in position where we can do it! It's really hard to rank them amongst skaters, especially at junior level.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

They had 3-2nd round picks, I don't mind spending one on a goalie. When you look at the money being given out to average starters, if you can find a reliable starter and bring him through your system you can save a lot of cap space.

The Hart pick isn't a bad pick, we just have so many goalies now in our system. It would make a lot more sense if we take three in last year's draft and sign Lyons. They can't all play for the Flyers. We could have added a guy like Pu, Bitten, Abramov, Fox, Day, Allard, or Greenway instead of Hart and grabbed a goalie in the third (or later) round. Obviously, the brass felt that Hart was more valuable and I certainly have faith in them, but I'd be more excited to add one of those guys to the list of prospects. Goalies are too uncertain for me to get excited about at this stage of the game, again, especially since we just drafted three last year and signed Lyons.

 

[HighOFFHockey]

It is the opposite actually. The average Sv% year to year in the SHL is around ~.905-906%. There are not as many shots in general but a lot of breakaways, 2v1's & 3v2's compared to the NHL. Of course in turn that means it is harder to put up a ~.910+sv% than it is in North America.

His sv% was pretty much SHL average to end the year. Though for 3/4 of the season above it. The thing is though is the SHL is the 3rd best mens league in the world... it is very rare an 18 year old even gets a game... let alone is split starter and puts up average numbers on a pretty poor defensive team.


That being said I would rate Stolarz ahead now. He is further along in his development, less can really go wrong going forward, is a physical freak and is close to the NHL already.

Oh Appleyard, you and your logic...JK...thanks for pointing that out. Flyers drafted Hard because it's far too difficult to project goalies. This way they just increase their chances. If they all hit, then we go full LA Kings and start shipping out goalies for 1st round picks. It's a win/win really.

Odds are we Lyon will get first dibs on call ups, Stolarz second, then you wait for any of the other prospects to hit 21-22 and you start giving them a taste of the NHL. The need to add depth at goalie has been there for some time and Hextall is making up for the past 30 years in 3 years...love it.

 

[Appleyard]

Really? Guess I was just making that assumption for the lower offense that comes out of the SEL.

The SHL & NHL are almost identical in scoring rates over the last few years actually... but there are an extra two players dressed in an SHL game, and generally half the league don't really have 'proper' 1st lines, so scoring is spread around a bit more.

If we compare the stats from last year for example (SHL are rounded):

NHL: 5.34 GPG, 59.5 shots per game, .910 average sv%
SHL: 5.35 GPG, 57 shots per game, .906 average sv%

So while scoring is virtually identical there is more shooting in the NHL, which means that sv%'s are higher in general.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You'll find out sooner than later what Lyon is about given he's 24. So I really don't factor him in when discussing the other goalies. Madsen & Tomek are likely going to finish out their full college careers (so two years for Madsen & three years for Tomek). Hart has two years of juniors left. Fedotov is kind of a mystery, he'll probably get some KHL games in this year finally. The Flyers hold his rights for the foreseeable future so there's no rush there. Sandstrom's likely the only one who could be playing pro soon in the AHL.

Washington had Varlamov, Neuvirth, & Holtby in their system all at once. Varlamov was traded for a first & a second rounders. Neuvirth was traded along with Klesla (cap dump) for Halak & a third rounder. Hopefully we get to that point with our guys.