Prospect Info: 2016 Draft/ Lottery/ Prospect Discussion Thread (Lottery April 30th)

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'll update standings for now with Jets getting that point. We aren't getting any favours anywhere else tonight.

I'll probably update the results of the Oilers/Flames games in the morning, but we'll see.

 

[nexttothemoon]

It's really odd that literally every other NHL team has played 75 or 76 games (well except for the Isles with 74)... and then there's the Oilers with 79 games played.

Schedule maker must have been drunk.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Just updated the tank standings. Montreal has been eliminated. We can no finish no higher than 7th last, and have secured our 8th consecutive top 10 pick :/

It is highly unlikely that we don't finish in the bottom 3, although those 3 games are QUITE winnable!

 

[Soundwave]

It's really odd that literally every other NHL team has played 75 or 76 games (well except for the Isles with 74)... and then there's the Oilers with 79 games played.

Schedule maker must have been drunk.

The Oilers also started the season after most teams to boot. It's a BS schedule, probably cost us the chance to watch Connor a few extra times.

 

[Tyrolean]

Just updated the tank standings. Montreal has been eliminated. We can no finish no higher than 7th last, and have secured our 8th consecutive top 10 pick :/

It is highly unlikely that we don't finish in the bottom 3, although those 3 games are QUITE winnable!

But you're talking about the Oilers where anything can happen and it's usually to the negative. Nothing is guaranteed with this team.

 

[snipes]

The more I study Laine, the more I hope we almost land on #2. His shot is absolutely unreal, his one timers are deadly. He's also 6'4 and not afraid to lay the body, he could be perfect in the Pacific.

 

[Tyrolean]

The more I study Laine, the more I hope we almost land on #2. His shot is absolutely unreal, his one timers are deadly. He's also 6'4 and not afraid to lay the body, he could be perfect in the Pacific.

Too bad they changed the Loto rules else if you are dead last we are guaranteed 2nd overall. Hope it kills the tankers like the Leafs.

 

[snipes]

Too bad they changed the Loto rules else if you are dead last we are guaranteed 2nd overall. Hope it kills the tankers like the Leafs.

Yup. Hopefully the hockey gods punish teams that intentionally tank (I say this knowing full well it's random probabilities).

 

[McFlyingV]

The more I study Laine, the more I hope we almost land on #2. His shot is absolutely unreal, his one timers are deadly. He's also 6'4 and not afraid to lay the body, he could be perfect in the Pacific.

I've kind of been hoping the same, but also would obviously take Matthews still at #1 or trade the pick.

 

[Frank the Tank]

So what is the consensus for beyond the top-3 should the lottery not go the Oilers way. From reading this thread and with their being a clear top-3 in the draft I assume should they land at each draft position the Oilers pick:

1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujärvi
4. ???

Would the Oilers prefer Tkachuk at 4 because of the agitator/nasty style he plays or Dubois because of his size and two-way play (I assume Nylander is the not the type of player the Oilers need)? Or do they trade down a few spots and grab a defenseman like Juolevi, Sergachyov, or Chychrun (although they all shoot left)?

 

[Frank the Tank]

It's really odd that literally every other NHL team has played 75 or 76 games (well except for the Isles with 74)... and then there's the Oilers with 79 games played.

Schedule maker must have been drunk.

Yes, I imagine McLellan is thinking why the hell do I get all this practice time now when 1/3 of these guys won't be here playing our system beyond the next 3 games.

 

[Fourier]

So what is the consensus for beyond the top-3 should the lottery not go the Oilers way. From reading this thread and with their being a clear top-3 in the draft I assume should they land at each draft position the Oilers pick:

1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujärvi
4. ???

Would the Oilers prefer Tkachuk at 4 because of the agitator/nasty style he plays or Dubois because of his size and two-way play (I assume Nylander is the not the type of player the Oilers need)? Or do they trade down a few spots and grab a defenseman like Juolevi, Sergachyov, or Chychrun (although they all shoot left)?

Tkachuk is basically Hall's size. People talk about comparisons with his dad but his da was 30lbs heavier. Dubois is much bigger, also plays a physical game and is I think a better skater but don't quote me on that since I have only seen Dubois a couple of times. Having seen a fair bit of Tkachuk at #4 I'd take Dubois. In fact, I would have Tkachuk behind the defensemen.

I less of a sense about Juolevi than the others which is kind of strange because of how many times I have seen him play, but Sergachev and Chychrun are both big, great skaters with excellent two way games. This is probably because when I watch London their forwards kind of dominate the game. Where as when I watch the other two they are typically the main focus.

All three of these guys are relatively young in the draft class with Sergachev being born in late June. So it would not surprise me at all to see him come into the combine at 6'3" -6'4" and 215-220lbs.

 

[Aceboogie]

The D arent inspiring too much confidence in this draft. They are good, but no Jones/Ekblads here. More Larssons/Murrays

Dubios is really growing on me the more I watch him. Big PWF, goes into dirty areas. However more imporantly he plays all 3 positions and plays a 2-way game. He seems like an incredibly versatile player that you can play wherever and whenever

However is he another Poliout? or is he a Benn?

Verastily, IQ and ability to play with size and speed are key for me. He appears to have those 3 in spades. A guy you can slot in on top line RW for a stretch then put in 2c if need be.

Only reservation for me is the fact hes from the Q. High Q picks never seem to live up to the hype. If he was in OHL and putting up these points id have him 3rd overall

 

[Canovin]

"chop woods and carry water"

DuBois fits that description

 

[HeavyHitter99]

The more I study Laine, the more I hope we almost land on #2. His shot is absolutely unreal, his one timers are deadly. He's also 6'4 and not afraid to lay the body, he could be perfect in the Pacific.

Hey as long as he doesn't threaten to kill anymore coaches and keeps his attitude in check I'm all for it

 

[HeavyHitter99]

The D arent inspiring too much confidence in this draft. They are good, but no Jones/Ekblads here. More Larssons/Murrays

Dubios is really growing on me the more I watch him. Big PWF, goes into dirty areas. However more imporantly he plays all 3 positions and plays a 2-way game. He seems like an incredibly versatile player that you can play wherever and whenever

However is he another Poliout? or is he a Benn?

Verastily, IQ and ability to play with size and speed are key for me. He appears to have those 3 in spades. A guy you can slot in on top line RW for a stretch then put in 2c if need be.

Only reservation for me is the fact hes from the Q. High Q picks never seem to live up to the hype. If he was in OHL and putting up these points id have him 3rd overall

Pouliot never dominated the way Dubois does. Also of all the Q players taken in the top 10 in the last oh I dunno 10 years, which ones didn't turn out? Maybe Drouin but he was on a stacked team and Jame Shephard but that was 10 years ago.

 

[Aceboogie]

Pouliot never dominated the way Dubois does. Also of all the Q players taken in the top 10 in the last oh I dunno 9 years, which ones didn't turn out? Maybe Drouin but he was on a stacked team.

Not "didnt turn out" just dissappoint

Mackinnon is good but 3 years in is right out pace statistically with RNH. For a guy as hyped as Mackinnon was thats kind of dissappointing

Huberdeau for a 3rd overall is only now just starting to do something. Not really overly impressive

grigernko wasnt top 10, but was concensus top 10 pre draft before falling. Hasnt turned out yet

None have really exceeded expectations like a LD or Ekblad or Monahan or RR etc have. Seems like other leagues pump out quality guys and some exceed hype. Q seems to produce good talent, but none really exceed expectation

 

[Aceboogie]

But the Q thing is a minor quirk for me

Another thing in PLD favour is almost a year younger than Matthews. He also has a year less of experience than Tckachuk. He is extremely young in this draft.

Something to watch out for

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Not "didnt turn out" just dissappoint

Mackinnon is good but 3 years in is right out pace statistically with RNH. For a guy as hyped as Mackinnon was thats kind of dissappointing

Huberdeau for a 3rd overall is only now just starting to do something. Not really overly impressive

grigernko wasnt top 10, but was concensus top 10 pre draft before falling. Hasnt turned out yet

None have really exceeded expectations like a LD or Ekblad or Monahan or RR etc have. Seems like other leagues pump out quality guys and some exceed hype. Q seems to produce good talent, but none really exceed expectation

Ok well if Mackinnon is doing as well as Nuge then that's not a shot against the Q or him as a player considering both went 1st and are from different leagues. Mac did play on an incredibly stacked team though. Still an excellent player with lots of potential.

Huberdeau would have likely put up 60 points if he didn't miss time and he had around 55 last year, you can't ask more of a player taken 3rd overall especially with the league scoring as low as it is.

Grigorenko fell for a reason as there were many question marks with his work ethic.

LD had an amazing streak but doesn't look like he can back it up, he's definitely not better than MacKinnon for example. Ekblad hasn't exceeded any expectations, he was granted exceptional status at 15 so he's doing what he should be doing. Monahan is as good as hoped. He was extremely hyped before he even played in the Q.

A lower percentage of Q players go top 10 but the ones that do tend to be 60 point players in the NHL. I guarentee a higher percentage of top 10 Q players turn out then from other leagues players taken top 10

 

[Aceboogie]

Ok well if Mackinnon is doing as well as Nuge then that's not a shot against the Q or him as a player considering both went 1st and are from different leagues. Mac did play on an incredibly stacked team though. Still an excellent player with lots of potential.

Huberdeau would have likely put up 60 points if he didn't miss time and he had around 55 last year, you can't ask more of a player taken 3rd overall especially with the league scoring as low as it is.

Grigorenko fell for a reason as there were many question marks with his work ethic.

LD had an amazing streak but doesn't look like he can back it up, he's definitely not better than MacKinnon for example. Ekblad hasn't exceeded any expectations, he was granted exceptional status at 15 so he's doing what he should be doing. Monahan is as good as hoped.

A lower percentage of Q players go top 10 but the ones that do tend to be 60 point players in the NHL. I guarentee a higher percentage of top 10 Q players turn out then from other leagues players taken top 10

RNH is typically considered one of the weaker 1st overalls, Mackinnon pre draft was on Tavares level, if not a bit higher. He was basically on Eichels level. I would say for him to only be on pace with RNH is a let down

Ekblad ill disagree big time with you. There was major criticisms of Ekblad and he wasnt even unanimous #1 on HF. I remember talk he could slide to 4 and people questioning upside. Right now he looks like one of best #1 picks in a long time. For me personally hes blown my expectations away. Maybe you had him higher, but myself and I think alot of people didnt see this coming

My point was just that you cant really find many top10-15 Q picks that lived up to the hype, much less exceeded expectations. They dont produce busts or anything. But something to watch out for is maybe the league amplifies skilled players

Not a major knock on PLD, he could easily buck the trend. But its a small thing to note

 

[Soundwave]

I'd be ok with the pick being Dubois or Chychrun.

 

[Frank the Tank]

Tkachuk is basically Hall's size. People talk about comparisons with his dad but his da was 30lbs heavier. Dubois is much bigger, also plays a physical game and is I think a better skater but don't quote me on that since I have only seen Dubois a couple of times. Having seen a fair bit of Tkachuk at #4 I'd take Dubois. In fact, I would have Tkachuk behind the defensemen.

I less of a sense about Juolevi than the others which is kind of strange because of how many times I have seen him play, but Sergachev and Chychrun are both big, great skaters with excellent two way games. This is probably because when I watch London their forwards kind of dominate the game. Where as when I watch the other two they are typically the main focus.

All three of these guys are relatively young in the draft class with Sergachev being born in late June. So it would not surprise me at all to see him come into the combine at 6'3" -6'4" and 215-220lbs.

Thanks. I haven't followed the top prospects closely this season as I was obviously too optimistic about the changes with McDavid/McLellan/Chiarelli on board.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

RNH is typically considered one of the weaker 1st overalls, Mackinnon pre draft was on Tavares level, if not a bit higher. He was basically on Eichels level. I would say for him to only be on pace with RNH is a let down

Ekblad ill disagree big time with you. There was major criticisms of Ekblad and he wasnt even unanimous #1 on HF. I remember talk he could slide to 4 and people questioning upside. Right now he looks like one of best #1 picks in a long time. For me personally hes blown my expectations away. Maybe you had him higher, but myself and I think alot of people didnt see this coming

My point was just that you cant really find many top10-15 Q picks that lived up to the hype, much less exceeded expectations. They dont produce busts or anything. But something to watch out for is maybe the league amplifies skilled players

Not a major knock on PLD, he could easily buck the trend. But its a small thing to note

Yes Mackinnon hasn't lived up to his hype yet, I agree with that. Right now he is a 60 point player. Hasn't lived up to the hype but he's only played 2.5 seasons.

I scouted Ekblad since he was 13 years old, everyone involved in the scouting community knew this kid would be a #1. People started questioning because of how long he was in the OHL. He got too much exposure and people began to nitpick his game and question his upside. Kid turned out like planned.

My point that I feel you are missing is that every Q player taken in the top 10 for the past 10 seasons has turned into at least a 60 point player. Sorry 2 players didn't but they weren't the top ranked/draft Q players and Drouin still could. Players like Huberdeau, Mac and Drouin played on incredibly dominant and stacked teams, this could have overhyped them and inflated their numbers. Dubois doesn't play on a world beating team and can dominate at both ends of the ice. His team was middle of the pack iirc.

If there is a trend in Q players it is that the highest ranked, top 10 drafted Q player is likely to be a 60 point player in the NHL. If anyone expects more from Dubois then they are off the mark.


I just feel your fear of Q players is a little extreme that's all.

 

[Lacaar]

I'd be ok with the pick being Dubois or Chychrun.

Me too.

I don't need fancy puck skills. I need character, work ethic, and a willingness to go to the hard areas of the game to win puck battles.

If some skill is sacrificed to meet those criteria than so be it.

That's the vibe I get from Dubois.

Chycrun sounds like a mature, smart player that's getting over analyzed. I remember Ekblad was getting this way too.

I thought Ekblad may have been excelling in Junior because he was just bigger then them all. But when I watched him play in the WJC i saw a player that was smatter then them all. I haven't seen Chycrun play but if he's of similar ilk then that's enticing.

Basically a defenceman with skill and size that uses them as an asset. Not a crutch. In their junior careers.

 

[Zaddy]

Eh, MacKinnon is 20 years old, bit early to call him a letdown. He came in and had a fantastic rookie season being extremely young (was 15 days away from being drafted the following year). After that he had a sophomore slump as most guys do. Didn't help Stastny walked either as MacK, him and Landeskog had terrific chemistry. Overall Avs have just been a bad team so I don't know how you can draw any real conclusions on MacK yet. 21 goals and 52 points this year in 72 games isn't exactly bad either, even though I expect him to outproduce that in the coming years.

Huberdeau is 22 and has just put up 2 straight good seasons and he wasn't even that hyped, it was just a weak draft year. He, too, have played on a bad team and I think it was expected that he would have some difficulty translating his game to the NHL game, but I'd say he's right on track. In fact I'd say he has positively surprised me because I really didn't have that high expectations on him but he's having a pretty good season this year.

Ehlers is technically still a junior but have had a respectable rookie campaign and should only get better. Drouin obviously isn't where most people thought he'd be at this point but it's certainly not due to lack of talent. Rather it's due to a bad attitude and, well, the fact that Tampa is pretty stacked up front. It's been really hard for him to get quality minutes. Still, he's 21 years old and he's got plenty of time to prove himself to be a very productive forward in the NHL.

So really, you can't say the Q is weak or that you don't trust players drafted from the Q based off of any of these players.