Salary Cap: 2016-17 Roster Building XXV | Fire Sales and Bargain Bins

[ColePens]

All figures are cap numbers, not salaries.

2016-17 salary ceiling​

​

​

|

73,000,000​

​

​

Pens' projected spending |

76,114,806​

Approx. LTIR cushion |

3,750,000​

Deadline cap space |

903,231​

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Forward.................​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

2018-19​

Evgeni Malkin|

C​

|

30​

|

9,500,000​

|

9,500,000​

|

9,500,000​

Sidney Crosby|

C​

|

29​

|

8,700,000​

|

8,700,000​

|

8,700,000​

Phil Kessel|

RW​

|

29​

|

6,800,000​

|

6,800,000​

|

6,800,000​

Patric Hornqvist|

RW​

|

29​

|

4,250,000​

|

4,250,000​

|

UFA​

Carl Hagelin|

LW​

|

28​

|

4,000,000​

|

4,000,000​

|

4,000,000​

Chris Kunitz|

LW​

|

37​

|

3,850,000​

|

UFA​

Eric Fehr|

RW​

|

31​

|

2,000,000​

|

2,000,000​

|

UFA​

Nick Bonino|

C​

|

28​

|

1,900,000​

|

UFA​

Matt Cullen|

C​

|

40​

|

1,000,000​

|

UFA​

Jake Guentzel|

LW​

|

22​

|

734,167​

|

734,167​

|

734,167​

Conor Sheary|

LW​

|

24​

|

667,500​

|

RFA​

Bryan Rust|

RW​

|

24​

|

640,000​

|

640,000​

|

RFA​

Scott Wilson|

LW​

|

24​

|

625,000​

|

625,000​

|

RFA​

Tom Kuhnhackl|

LW​

|

24​

|

625,000​

|

625,000​

|

RFA​

Defense.................​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

.2018-19​

Olli Maatta|

D​

|

22​

|

4,083,333​

|

4,083,333​

|

4,083,333​

Trevor Daley|

D​

|

33​

|

3,300,000​

|

UFA​

Ian Cole|

D​

|

27​

|

2,100,000​

|

2,100,000​

|

UFA​

Justin Schultz|

D​

|

26​

|

1,400,000​

|

RFA​

Steve Oleksy|

D​

|

30​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Chad Ruhwedel|

D​

|

26​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Cameron Gaunce|

D​

|

26​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Goalie............,.......​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

.2018-19​

Marc-Andre Fleury|

G​

|

32​

|

5,750,000​

|

5,750,000​

|

5,750,000​

Matt Murray|

G​

|

22​

|

620,000​

|

3,750,000​

|

3,750,000​

|

RFA​

Injured reserve.....​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

.2018-19​

Kris Letang|

D​

|

29​

|

7,250,000​

|

7,250,000​

|

7,250,000​

Pascal Dupuis|

RW​

|

37​

|

3,750,000​

|

UFA​

Brian Dumoulin|

D​

|

25​

|

800,000​

|

RFA​

Retained salary.....​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

.2018-19​

Rob Scuderi|

D​

|

37​

|

1,125,000​

WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON PENGUINS

Forward...............​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

2018-19​

Thomas Di Pauli|

C​

|

22​

|

742,500​

|

742,500​

|

RFA​

Teddy Blueger|

C​

|

22​

|

705,000​

|

705,000​

|

RFA​

Oskar Sundqvist|

C​

|

22​

|

700,833​

|

RFA​

Dominik Simon|

C​

|

22​

|

692,500​

|

692,500​

|

RFA​

Josh Archibald|

RW​

|

24​

|

659,167​

|

RFA​

Carter Rowney|

RW​

|

27​

|

612,500​

|

612,500​

|

UFA​

Jean-Sebastien Dea|

C​

|

22​

|

585,000​

|

RFA​

Kevin Porter|

C​

|

30​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Garrett Wilson|

LW​

|

25​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Danny Kristo|

RW​

|

26​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Tom Sestito|

LW​

|

29​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Defense...............​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

2018-19​

Derrick Pouliot|

D​

|

22​

|

863,333​

|

RFA​

Ethan Prow|

D​

|

24​

|

730,000​

|

730,000​

|

RFA​

Lukas Bengtsson|

D​

|

22​

|

705,000​

|

705,000​

|

RFA​

David Warsofsky|

D​

|

26​

|

575,000​

|

UFA​

Stuart Percy|

D​

|

23​

|

575,000​

|

RFA​

Tim Erixon|

D​

|

25​

|

575,000​

|

RFA​

Goalie..................​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

2018-19​

Tristan Jarry|

G​

|

21​

|

589,167​

|

589,167​

|

RFA​

WHEELING NAILERS

Goalie..................​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

2016-17​

|

2017-18​

|

2018-19​

Sean Maguire|

G​

|

23​

|

705,000​

|

705,000​

|

RFA​

SIGNED PROSPECTS

Player​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

Current Team​

|

Contract​

Daniel Sprong|

F​

|

19​

|

Charlottetown (QMJHL)​

|

2 years, $692,500 per​

UNSIGNED PROSPECTS

Player​

​

​

|

Pos.​

|

Age​

|

Current Team (League)​

Niclas Almari|

D​

|

18​

|HPK (Liiga)

Anthony Angello|

F​

|

20​

|Cornell (ECAC)

Dane Birks|

D​

|

21​

|Michigan Tech (WCHA)

Kasper Bjorkqvist|

F​

|

19​

|Providence (HEA)

Blaine Byron|

F​

|

21​

|Maine (HEA)

Filip Gustavsson|

G​

|

18​

|Luleå HF (SHL)

Connor Hall|

D​

|

18​

|Kitchener (OHL)

Ryan Jones|

D​

|

20​

|Nebraska-Omaha (NCHC)

Troy Josephs|

F​

|

22​

|Clarkson (ECAC)

Sam Lafferty|

F​

|

21​

|Brown (ECAC)

Joe Masonius|

D​

|

19​

|Connecticut (HEA)

Nikita Pavlychev|

F​

|

19​

|Penn State (B1G)

Alexander Pechurskiy|

G​

|

26​

|Amur Khabarovsk (KHL)

Jeff Taylor|

D​

|

22​

|Union (ECAC)

Frederik Tiffels|

F​

|

21​

|Western Michigan (NCHC)

Dominik Uher|

C​

|

23​

|HC Sparta Praha (ELH)

Click to read more...

 

[Shady Machine]

Looking at some of the left wingers getting 4m a year, Sheary's production could recede a fair amount and still fit into the general ball park.

It could, but I also expect it to.

In my view, you need to decide if Sheary is Crosby's LW'er or not. If you know he's Crosby's LW'er and you want to commit to that, then sure, sign him to a 4 year deal. If you are on the fence, push for a 2 year prove it deal at around 3MM (at least within that framework).

Sheary will likely get minimal PP time and he doesn't PK, so you are looking at a pure ES player. He needs to produce at 45ES points to be worth 4MM a year. So far, he's blowing that out of the water, but let's see how he finishes the year before deciding.

 

[KIRK]

I don't think so. When I added up his career earnings earlier this year, I pegged it around the 10m mark. Looking closer, that looks to be closer to 8.95-9.5m. Even with an impressive rookie campaign, it's unlikely he hit any of his schedule B bonuses (the 2m bonus). Which means that he would have been limited to schedule A bonuses (850k at most) over those 2 ELC years. He might have hit that in his rookie campaign, however some of that would have been offset by the lockout (and it's possible due to how performance bonuses are worded that he didn't hit any of them due to only playing 48 NHL games).

I said this summer (and I still stand by it) that his previous earnings were enough to allow him to be really choosy in July 2016. Going forward (and after the Edmonton situation) I don't think he'll "chase the money" in the sense that he'll want to max out asap. But neither do I think he'll leave a significant amount on the table to stay in Pittsburgh. He likely did that (to an extent) last summer - and is being rewarded for that. At some point in the near future he'll want to be rewarded for what he's done here.

For sure. At the same time, he's a RFA who has found his salvation in Pittsburgh. He's 26. I think he'll leave some money on the table and do a 2-3 year deal, then figure he'll get his big cash in on the subsequent deal. Not unlike Niskanen, I think, in terms of the deals . . .

 

[Peat]

It could, but I also expect it to.

In my view, you need to decide if Sheary is Crosby's LW'er or not. If you know he's Crosby's LW'er and you want to commit to that, then sure, sign him to a 4 year deal. If you are on the fence, push for a 2 year prove it deal at around 3MM (at least within that framework).

Sheary will likely get minimal PP time and he doesn't PK, so you are looking at a pure ES player. He needs to produce at 45ES points to be worth 4MM a year. So far, he's blowing that out of the water, but let's see how he finishes the year before deciding.

Werd.

I'm pretty high on Sheary. I think he meshes with Crosby to a scary degree and think he's also showed a decent ability to kickstart things by himself when away from Sid this season. For me, the biggest question is how he handles the fatigue of a full season. If he's still trucking at the end of it, I think I gamble on him being a long term fit with Sheary.

Said the guy who thought HBK would be a good unit this season...

 

[Riptide]

I wouldn't give him a 1 year deal. I would explore a 2 or 3 year deal before a long term extension.

Agreed. If he signs a 1 year deal and repeats what he did/is doing this year, he'll get a huge pay increase. I'd much rather sign the best 3-4 year deal I can (even if it's in the mid 3s) and risk having an expensive-ish middle 6 creative forward with the reward of having a cheap winger who can put up 50+ points while not seeing #1PP time.

He's currently on pace for 66.9pts. He won't hit that because he missed some games (and that's assuming he keeps up his current production). But if he comes close to that, and does something similar next season while on a one year contract, he's going to get 5m+ in July 2018. I'd much rather run the risk of having him at 3.5/4m with term as a middle six winger for a few years then have to pay him if he puts up back to back 55+ point seasons without seeing any significant PP time.

Edit.

Sheary will likely get minimal PP time and he doesn't PK, so you are looking at a pure ES player. He needs to produce at 45ES points to be worth 4MM a year. So far, he's blowing that out of the water, but let's see how he finishes the year before deciding.

In the last 5 years, only 85 forwards have had 45+ ES points seasons. Scanning the list, almost all are making 5m+. My point being I think we need to adjust our thinking a little here with regards to what a 40pt+ ES player is worth.

 

[Riptide]

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/1866-schultz-justin

Here is Schultz's contract history. He had the 2 year ELC (925k plus bonuses), signed a 1 year deal at $3.675 million and then signed a 1 year deal at $3.9 million (his qualifying offer of his 2nd contract). He got the $3.675 million deal after putting up 27 points in 48 games in his rookie season and 33 points in 74 games in his sophomore season. It could have also been the qualifying offer of his ELC if he finished with the equivalent of a $3.5 million cap hit from his ELC and bonuses.

His QO in the summer of 2015 wouldn't have included any bonuses that he may have received. That's something that's strictly related to one's actual salary from the previous season. And he wouldn't have hit any of those 2m bonuses for his rookie seasons. Which means at max (assuming he maxed out his schedule A performance bonuses), he earned 850k in bonuses, or 1.7m in 2 years over his ~1.4m in salary from his 2 year ELC. The lockout would have cost him ~400k or so. Which means his actual compensation would have looked something like this:

2012/13 - ELC, 925k (-~400k due to games played), 850k in bonuses (assuming he maxed them out).
2013/14 - ELC, 925k, 850k in bonuses
2014/15 - 3.675m
2015/16 - 3.9m
2016/17 - 1.4m
ELC bonuses (maxed out): 1.7m

Total (without bonuses): 10.42m
Total (with bonuses): 12.12m

 

[KIRK]

Agreed. If he signs a 1 year deal and repeats what he did/is doing this year, he'll get a huge pay increase. I'd much rather sign the best 3-4 year deal I can (even if it's in the mid 3s) and risk having an expensive-ish middle 6 creative forward with the reward of having a cheap winger who can put up 50+ points while not seeing #1PP time.

He's currently on pace for 66.9pts. He won't hit that because he missed some games (and that's assuming he keeps up his current production). But if he comes close to that, and does something similar next season while on a one year contract, he's going to get 5m+ in July 2018. I'd much rather run the risk of having him at 3.5/4m with term as a middle six winger for a few years then have to pay him if he puts up back to back 55+ point seasons without seeing any significant PP time.

I suspect that to sign a deal in the mid 3's, Schultz will want the contract to expire before he turns 30. At that number, he'd sign for 2 years, maybe 3. 4 years? A deal that expires after he's turned 30? I think you're paying over 4M for that.

 

[Riptide]

I suspect that to sign a deal in the mid 3's, Schultz will want the contract to expire before he turns 30. At that number, he'd sign for 2 years, maybe 3. 4 years? A deal that expires after he's turned 30? I think you're paying over 4M for that.

Schultz or Sheary? That post you quoted was referencing Sheary.

 

[KIRK]

Schultz or Sheary? That post you quoted was referencing Sheary.

Oh ****, sorry, I thought it was referencing Schultz.

As for Sheary, a 2 year deal means he's a UFA when he expires. I'd shoot for a third year, maybe a fourth, if I'm going into the mid 3's.

 

[Gallatin]

Maybe our forwards are playing better, though it wasn't that long ago we lost four in a row and gave up a lot of goals so I'm thinking this is hearsay.

Frankly, and I have never been one to pump up a newcomer from the minors so early, but to me part of the reason is that Ruhwedel is honestly not much worse than some of the guys on the permanent roster, namely Dumo and Maatta. I'm not exactly saying that he's a 3/4 defender, but he's never looked bad that I can recall, can pass the puck, and looks very comfortable doing things like pinching down the offensive boards and such. What I am saying though is it's going to eventually be high time to consider that he can play in this league at a decent level, and again I never say that about guys that have played so few games.

It's not hearsay, it's using your eyes and knowledge. The perceived improvement of our D the last 3 games is night and day from the previous 3 games.

What changed? Well Geno took responsibility for the team's failures and started playing defense like his life depended on it. Most of the team is following his example.

And Ruhwedel does look like a legit 6/7 so far, but that's only part of the answer.

Murray making key early saves, and giving a chance for his team to get rolling is another.

But it all means little unless the forwards return to their Cup game of last season. That Mos Def is happening.

 

[Riptide]

Oh ****, sorry, I thought it was referencing Schultz.

As for Sheary, a 2 year deal means he's a UFA when he expires. I'd shoot for a third year, maybe a fourth, if I'm going into the mid 3's.

Yeah, I think we're in agreement with Sheary. Get the most term we can while keeping his cap hit reasonable. The 3x3.3m contracts that TBs triplet line signed would be nice.

I don't think many agree with me as to what Schultz will get. I think we'll have a hard time signing him to a 4m contract. And if we do, it won't be with any term. I think the demand/market for a top 4, RH OFD is a lot more than what some think we'll get him signed for. Him being an RFA doesn't really change that.

I guess we'll see how that plays out this spring/summer.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think most of us agree he will want to stay here for a reasonable price. The question is what's reasonable?

I'd say anything between 4-5MM per would be a very good value for the Pens vs what Schultz could command on open market. The tricky thing with him is whether other GMs see his resurrection as a Pens' specific scenario or not. If not, he's getting Nisky level offers.

I agree. If he keeps playing at something like this level, 4.5 mil per for 3-4 years would be a solid deal, IMO.

I'd be choked if we resurrected Schultz and he left this summer. He brings so much to our offense and our PP.

I think this is an understated part. Up to this point in his career, Schultz has earned over $16 million already in 5 seasons in the NHL. Niskanen earned less than $10 million in his first 7 years in the NHL. He's made a good amount of money already, I don't think he'd turn down staying in Pittsburgh over half a million or so per season. If he wants $5.25 million per season on a 4 year deal and Pittsburgh is only offering $4.5, do you really think he'd take his business elsewhere? I can't see it.

Yeah, the "previous earnings" angle is a big one too.

Along with the Niskanen comparison, wasn't there a rumor that Niskanen wanted to extend with Pittsburgh at like $4 million per season before Shero got fired? He got paid in free agency, but I always thought the Penguins just decided to not re-sign him.

Possible, but I don't remember.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah, I didn't really think he would make Letang expendable, but I wanted a little input. Although, he is a couple years younger, and it's possible he could improve his overall game. Even though the personnel has changed, our staff seems to be rather adept at that sort of thing.

I would love to have Letang...who is healthier than Letang. Shattenkirk alone wouldn't make me give up Letang. If we some how got Shatty and Alzner...and traded Maatta for Trouba...and kept Schultz, I could see sending Letang out for significant assets coming back.

Dumo-Shatty
Alzner-Schultz
Cole-Trouba



Okay, waking up now.

Maatta is not untouchable.

No he is not. Right now though, the only thing I'd consider is a 1:1 for another dman that fit better ala Maatta for Trouba. Want to see more Jake, Sheary, and even Sprong and Sundy before I say Maatta out for wing or center help.

Yeah, I think we're in agreement with Sheary. Get the most term we can while keeping his cap hit reasonable. The 3x3.3m contracts that TBs triplet line signed would be nice.

I don't think many agree with me as to what Schultz will get. I think we'll have a hard time signing him to a 4m contract. And if we do, it won't be with any term. I think the demand/market for a top 4, RH OFD is a lot more than what some think we'll get him signed for. Him being an RFA doesn't really change that.

I guess we'll see how that plays out this spring/summer.

I think those three are good comparisons. Wish it was closer to 2.5mil or so but he could easily point to Palat and want that. Or even Killorn who got a 2yr/$2.25mil per deal before signing the big one.

 

[Riptide]

Zack Smith just signed a 4x3.25m extension. That should give one an idea as to what Bonino (or a similar player) will cost.

 

[Shady Machine]

In the last 5 years, only 85 forwards have had 45+ ES points seasons. Scanning the list, almost all are making 5m+. My point being I think we need to adjust our thinking a little here with regards to what a 40pt+ ES player is worth.

I don't disagree with you, but this Pens team is winning with cheap contributors throughout the line up. I'm not buying any of these guys long term unless I'm sold one of them is the real deal.

The Pens took a chance on Sheary and he has delivered. I think both sides can give a little on the next contract and then see what happens.

Market value for a guy consistently putting up 40+ ES points is likely over 5MM, but that doesn't mean Sheary is worth 5MM to the Pens.

 

[Riptide]

Possible, but I don't remember.

The rumor was he wanted 4x4m in Sept/Nov (it was pretty early in the season). However that didn't happen, and he went on to have a great season, and signed with WSH for 7x5.75m.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The Allen for Fleury idea intrigues me, I gotta say.

If we could do something like Allen and Agostino for Fleury, I might bite. But I'm still intrigued with our old prospect, so that might be skewing my take a little haha.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The rumor was he wanted 4x4m in Sept/Nov (it was pretty early in the season). However that didn't happen, and he went on to have a great season, and signed with WSH for 7x5.75m.

That makes sense.

 

[Riptide]

I don't disagree with you, but this Pens team is winning with cheap contributors throughout the line up. I'm not buying any of these guys long term unless I'm sold one of them is the real deal.

The Pens took a chance on Sheary and he has delivered. I think both sides can give a little on the next contract and then see what happens.

Market value for a guy consistently putting up 40+ ES points is likely over 5MM, but that doesn't mean Sheary is worth 5MM to the Pens.

Then you get less term. I don't want to give up that term. Lets say we sign him to a 4x3.75m contract. Or even a 4x4m (or 5x4m) contract.

Reward: A fast, young skilled 55+ point winger who can create a little offense and doesn't need PP time to produce.
Risk: A fast young skilled 30-40 point winger who can create a little offense and doesn't need PP time to produce.

While the risk is that he might be a little overpriced in a middle 6 role, I think his value would still be enough that as a 25/30+ ES point winger on the 3rd line that him at 3.75m or 4m wouldn't be an issue. Perhaps a tad expensive, but not something that we couldn't manage. Especially when the reward is we're potentially getting a 55+ point winger who produces mostly at ES.

 

[ColePens]

The seller aspect at the deadline will ****ing suck. Every team in the East is 5 points or less out from that last playoff spot. I don't see how these GMs are going to sell without trying to sneak in to the dance.

The last couple deadlines have blown. This one most likely will, too. Only 2 teams are basically officially done. Zona/Col.

 

[KIRK]

It's not hearsay, it's using your eyes and knowledge. The perceived improvement of our D the last 3 games is night and day from the previous 3 games.

What changed? Well Geno took responsibility for the team's failures and started playing defense like his life depended on it. Most of the team is following his example.

And Ruhwedel does look like a legit 6/7 so far, but that's only part of the answer.

Murray making key early saves, and giving a chance for his team to get rolling is another.

But it all means little unless the forwards return to their Cup game of last season. That Mos Def is happening.

Fact Check: True.

That Sully regularly sent him out for defensive zone draws was VERY telling.

The seller aspect at the deadline will ****ing suck. Every team in the East is 5 points or less out from that last playoff spot. I don't see how these GMs are going to sell without trying to sneak in to the dance.

The last couple deadlines have blown. This one most likely will, too. Only 2 teams are basically officially done. Zona/Col.

This may help with the Fleury cause, as discussed elsewhere.

If JR is big game hunting for a winger for Sid, then that's something separate from the traditional deadline market.

Only thing I see him looking to add from that market is a defenseman on an expiring contract who can step in. Still think Seidenberg is the name to watch once the Isles go into sell mode. Great cap hit. Having a solid season for a defensively ugly NYI team. Knees fairly gone but can play our style. Played before for JR.

 

[ColePens]

Fact Check: True.

That Sully regularly sent him out for defensive zone draws was VERY telling.



This may help with the Fleury cause, as discussed elsewhere.

If JR is big game hunting for a winger for Sid, then that's something separate from the traditional deadline market.

Only thing I see him looking to add from that market is a defenseman on an expiring contract who can step in. Still think Seidenberg is the name to watch once the Isles go into sell mode. Great cap hit. Having a solid season for a defensively ugly NYI team. Knees fairly gone but can play our style. Played before for JR.

Do not want Seidenberg. Doesn't bring anything that we made so successful last year in the postseason. He used to play a block shot type game and anymore is pretty bad. But as a #7.. meh. It is what it is.

 

[Peat]

I don't disagree with you, but this Pens team is winning with cheap contributors throughout the line up. I'm not buying any of these guys long term unless I'm sold one of them is the real deal.

The Pens took a chance on Sheary and he has delivered. I think both sides can give a little on the next contract and then see what happens.

Market value for a guy consistently putting up 40+ ES points is likely over 5MM, but that doesn't mean Sheary is worth 5MM to the Pens.

If Sheary can keep on putting up 40-50 ES points for 4m, he is 'cheap'. Wait too long for proof and you miss the opportunity to have that long term. I'm not convinced that our pipeline of young potential top 6 talent is sufficiently strong that we'll be able to replace him from within just like that, which means we'll probably be shelling out for a replacement anyway.

Its a gamble either way but, current form continuing, I'd be willing to pay a fair bit to get him on a 4 year contract.

 

[Gallatin]

Agreed. Which is as it should be seeing as how you are one of the people I learned how to see the game from.

 

[JTG]

Sheary is getting himself a life-changing paycheck this offseason. I have no doubts about that.