You're not wrong, but that's what has the best chance of happening. Geertsen still probably has some NHL potential as a lower end defender, but good chance it won't be with us.
I feel like he always had a 3rd pairing ceiling. He was always in ridiculous shape for training camp so his tires got pumped a little too full at times. He's definitely a project that is likely to get passed over if other guys are having success faster than him.
I'd imagine EJ, Zads, Barrie, Lindy, Bigras, Mironov (when he signs) are all firmly ahead of him and Meloche will be sooner than later. He has plenty of time to work on things behind them if the org and he stick it out. I'd put Siemens ahead of him too but who knows what's going on there between him and the Avs.