Every junior player has to adjust their game when they jump to the pro level- even Provorov. I think that goes without saying. Should we discredit Mitch Marner's junior highlights and production since he won't be able to dangle through defenders at the rate he does in the OHL? Of course not. How about Gostisbehere? NHL defenders were still falling for that head fake game after game. Or how about the spin-o-rama? 'He won't be able to do that in the NHL!' Well he did. I also remember people saying McDavid would struggle because all he did was score around the crease in junior and he wouldn't be able to get there much in the NHL. He did. These are transferable skills.
Obviously every player has to adjust, but if you break down how and why Provorov and Sanheim are successful at the junior level, you reach drastically different reasons for both.
Again, my concern is with the fact that Sanheim's offensive success is largely derived from his ability to exploit poor gaps and slow decision making of junior opponents-- ie, things that are distinctly available at the junior level but not the pros. When a speedy 6'4 defender with hands like Sanheim's comes barreling down on a 17 year old WHL defender, Sanheim's going to make him look silly more often than not. Junior players don't know how to defend against a player with that skill set, and you can see it in those clips or any time you watch a Hitmen game.
Provorov's offensive success doesn't come from any particular exploitation of junior level weaknesses in his opponents. Yeah, he reads the game at an exceptional level, but so does Sanheim. Instead, Provorov's success comes from a relatively simple and efficient place. His assists come from savvy breakout passes and simple looks in the offensive zone. His goals come from quick shovel shots from the point. In other words, these are plays that are available frequently in the NHL.
Regarding Gostisbehere, I mean, the things he did in the NHL really aren't all that similar to those clips of Sanheim. The spin-o-rama isn't exactly a new invention... like I said, Sanheim's got a truly unique skill set. Gostisbehere is fantastic, but he isn't a player that the NHL hasn't seen before. Sanheim is a different beast entirely. I mean, to be honest, this is just as much an argument
for Sanheim as it is against him. My point isn't that Sanheim is anything less than awesome... just that his skill set is truly unique, and no one can be sure how it will adapt. Whereas with players like Provorov and Gostisbehere, I think it was a lot easier to project.
Ultimately, our difference is that you have little doubt that Sanheim's skill set will translate. I'm just less certain. Totally respect where you're coming from-- you've obviously seen more of Sanheim than anyone.
My concern with Provorov is he gets checked one-on-one at the junior level. It's easy to say Sanheim, won't be able to do the things he did in the WHL in the NHL, but what about a player that can't get by defenders at the junior level? What's going to happen at the highest level of hockey? That's not to say he can't still be a great player, but I prefer a guy that can create his own offense. He doesn't have to rely on others to get him the puck in high percentage areas.
And I hope that doesn't come off as a slight to Provorov. I think he's great and I've said since the beginning of the year we have the 2 best defenseman in the CHL. I have no issue with people thinking he's the best prospect. He has an impressive resume and he's as safe as they come. We are lucky to have both guys.
But Provorov doesn't try to beat defenders or lug the puck from end to end or play keep away in the offensive zone. Like I said above, he makes simple, efficient plays and reads. I've said before, where Sanheim is an offensive "generator"... Provorov is more of an offensive "facilitator", so I definitely agree that Provorov's offense will be much more dependent on his teammates. Remember, I'm not arguing that Provorov will be better offensively-- only that his skills are easier to project. His ability to make those simple and efficient plays isn't going to go anywhere when he jumps from juniors to pros. Sanheim's ability to lug the puck, beat defenders, and play keep away is a little more questionable.
