NCAA: 2015-16 Playoff/New Year's Six Watch

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

Initial Rankings (Group of Five team bolded)

1 Clemson 8-0 â€”
2 LSU 7-0 â€”
3 Ohio State 8-0 â€”
4 Alabama 7-1 â€”
5 Notre Dame 7-1 â€”
6 Baylor 7-0 â€”
7 Michigan State 8-0 â€”
8 TCU 8-0 â€”
9 Iowa 8-0 â€”
10 Florida 7-1 â€”
11 Stanford 7-1 â€”
12 Utah 7-1 â€”
13 Memphis 8-0 â€”
14 Oklahoma State 8-0 â€”
15 Oklahoma 7-1 â€”
16 Florida State 7-1 â€”
17 Michigan 6-2 â€”
18 Ole Miss 7-2 â€”
19 Texas A&M 6-2 â€”
20 Mississippi State 6-2 â€”
21 Northwestern 6-2 â€”
22 Temple 7-1 â€”
23 UCLA 6-2 â€”
24 Toledo 7-0 â€”
25 Houston 8-0 â€”

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

2nd release (Group of Five bolded)

1 Clemson 9-0 â€”
2 Alabama 8-1 2
3 Ohio State 9-0 â€”
4 Notre Dame 8-1 1
5 Iowa 9-0 4
6 Baylor 8-0 â€”
7 Stanford 8-1 4
8 Oklahoma State 9-0 6
9 LSU 7-1 -7
10 Utah 8-1 2
11 Florida 8-1 -1
12 Oklahoma 8-1 3
13 Michigan State 8-1 -6
14 Michigan 7-2 3
15 TCU 8-1 -7
16 Florida State 7-2 â€”
17 Mississippi State 7-2 3
18 Northwestern 7-2 3
19 UCLA 7-2 4
20 Navy 7-1 â€”
21 Memphis 8-1 -8
22 Temple 8-1 â€”
23 North Carolina 8-1 â€”
24 Houston 9-0 1
25 Wisconsin 8-2 â€”

Dropped from rankings: Ole Miss 18, Texas A&M 19, Toledo 24

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

3rd release (Group of Five bolded)

1 Clemson 10-0 â€”
2 Alabama 9-1 â€”
3 Ohio State 10-0 â€”
4 Notre Dame 9-1 â€”
5 Iowa 10-0 â€”
6 Oklahoma State 10-0 2
7 Oklahoma 9-1 5
8 Florida 9-1 3
9 Michigan State 9-1 4
10 Baylor 8-1 -4
11 Stanford 8-2 -4
12 Michigan 8-2 2
13 Utah 8-2 -3
14 Florida State 8-2 2
15 LSU 7-2 -6
16 Navy 8-1 4
17 North Carolina 9-1 6
18 TCU 9-1 -3
19 Houston 10-0 5
20 Northwestern 8-2 -2
21 Memphis 8-2 â€”
22 Ole Miss 7-3 â€”
23 Oregon 7-3 â€”
24 USC 7-3 â€”
25 Wisconsin 8-2 â€”

Dropped from rankings: Mississippi State 17, UCLA 19, Temple 22

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

Here are the remaining schedules for the teams that still have a chance at either the College Football Playoff or a New Year's Six Bowl. I only included teams with a more than zero chance of winning their conference or teams that have three losses or less from a power conference. If I didn't list your favorite team, I think they have a zero percent chance of making the playoff or a big bowl game.

Top 25
#1 Clemson (1): Wake Forest, at South Carolina
#2 Alabama (2): Charleston Southern, at Auburn, Florida (SEC Championship Game)
#3 Ohio State (3): Michigan State, at Michigan
#4 Notre Dame (18): Boston College, at Stanford
#5 Iowa (4): Purdue, at Nebraska
#6 Oklahoma State (17): Baylor, Oklahoma
#7 Oklahoma (17): TCU, at Oklahoma State
#8 Florida (5): Florida Atlantic, Florida State
#9 Michigan State (3): at Ohio State, Penn State
#10 Baylor (17): at Oklahoma State, at TCU, Texas
#11 Stanford (6): Cal, Notre Dame
#12 Michigan (3): at Penn State, Ohio State
#13 Utah (7): UCLA, Colorado
#14 Florida State (19): Chattanooga, at Florida
#15 LSU (19): at Mississippi, Texas A&M
#16 Navy (8): at Tulsa, at Houston, Army
#17 North Carolina (9): at Virginia Tech, at NC State
#18 TCU (17): at Oklahoma, Baylor
#19 Houston (8): at Connecticut, Navy
#20 Northwestern (19): at Wisconsin, Illinois
#21 Memphis (19): at Temple, SMU
#22 Mississippi (19): LSU, at Mississippi State
#23 Oregon (6): Southern Cal, Oregon State
#24 Southern Cal (7): at Oregon, UCLA
#25 Wisconsin (4): Northwestern, at Minnesota

Unranked power conference teams that still have an outside chance at making a New Year's Six Bowl
NR Pittsburgh (9): Louisville, Miami (FL)
NR Penn State (19): Michigan, at Michigan State
NR Washington State (19): Colorado, at Washington
NR UCLA (7): at Utah, at Southern Cal
NR Georgia (19): Georgia Southern, at Georgia Tech
NR Texas A&M (19): at Vanderbilt, at LSU
NR Mississippi State (19): at Arkansas, Mississippi

Unranked teams that could be the "Group of Five" representative
NR Temple (10): Memphis, Connecticut
NR South Florida (10): Cincinnati, at Central Florida
NR Cincinnati (10): at South Florida, at East Carolina
NR Connecticut (10): Houston, at Temple
NR Western Kentucky (11): at Florida International, Marshall
NR Marshall (11): Florida International, at Western Kentucky
NR Louisiana Tech (12): at UTEP, Southern Mississippi
NR Southern Mississippi (12): Old Dominion, at Louisiana Tech
NR Bowling Green (13): at Ball State
NR Toledo (14): Western Michigan
NR Northern Illinois (14): Ohio
NR Air Force (15): at Boise State, at New Mexico
NR Boise State (15): Air Force, at San Jose State
NR New Mexico (15): Colorado State, Air Force
NR San Diego State (16): at UNLV, Nevada
NR Nevada (16): at Utah State, at San Diego State
NR Arkansas State: at New Mexico State, Texas State
NR Appalachian State: Louisiana-Lafayette, at South Alabama
NR Georgia Southern: South Alabama, Georgia State

Not sure where they go
NR BYU (18): Fresno State, at Utah State

(1) Clinched ACC Atlantic... will play North Carolina or Pittsburgh
(2) Clinched SEC West... will play Florida
(3) Will play Iowa or Wisconsin if they win their division
(4) Will play Ohio State, Michigan State or Michigan if they win their division
(5) Clinched SEC East... will play Alabama
(6) Will play UCLA, Southern Cal or Utah if they win their division
(7) Will play Stanford or Oregon if they win their division
(8) Will play Temple or South Florida if they win their division
(9) Will play Clemson if they win their division
(10) Will play Houston or Navy if they win their division
(11) Will play Louisiana Tech or Southern Mississippi if they win their division
(12) Will play Western Kentucky or Marshall if they win their division
(13) Clinched MAC East... will play Toledo or Northern Illinois
(14) Will play Bowling Green if they win their division
(15) Will play San Diego State or Nevada if they win their division
(16) Will play Air Force, Boise State or New Mexico if they win their division
(17) No conference championship game
(18) Join a conference!
(19) Impossible to make conference championship game

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

All times are Eastern Time.

hockeykicker · Nov 20, 2015

The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, which will pit two at large teams, will precede the semifinal games at noon ET on New Yearâ€™s Eve.

On New Yearâ€™s Day, the Fiesta Bowl begins at 1 pm ET with another at large vs. at large matchup.

Next is the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual at 5 pm ET. Since the Rose Bowl is not hosting a playoff semifinal this season, it will feature their traditional matchup of Big Ten vs. Pac-12.

The Allstate Sugar Bowl closes out New Yearâ€™s Day with an 8:30 pm ET start time. The game will feature teams from the Big 12 and the SEC.

just for which bowls are which

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

I'm not 100% sure how this selection process works... (I understood the BCS selection process, though). I edited post #5. Thanks, hockeykicker.

If I were a betting man (which I am not), I would be willing to bet that a Big Ten team gets at least one team into the playoff, whether it's Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, or hell, Michigan. What if they get a second team into the playoff somehow? Is the Rose Bowl forced to take the third-best Big Ten team (even if they aren't deserving, but they will be... I'm just coming up with a "what if" scenario)? I know for sure the Pac-12 won't be getting a team into the playoff unless Stanford runs the table against Cal, Notre Dame, and ideally for them, Utah, and chaos happens elsewhere around the country.

Carolinas Identity* · Nov 20, 2015

rangerssharks414 said:
I'm not 100% sure how this selection process works... (I understood the BCS selection process, though). I edited post #5. Thanks, hockeykicker.

If I were a betting man (which I am not), I would be willing to bet that a Big Ten team gets at least one team into the playoff, whether it's Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, or hell, Michigan. What if they get a second team into the playoff somehow? Is the Rose Bowl forced to take the third-best Big Ten team (even if they aren't deserving, but they will be... I'm just coming up with a "what if" scenario)? I know for sure the Pac-12 won't be getting a team into the playoff unless Stanford runs the table against Cal, Notre Dame, and ideally for them, Utah, and chaos happens elsewhere around the country.

I am not 100% sure, but I think they would take the next highest ranked team. I know the Rose Bowl Took TCU the year Oregon played Auburn in the Final. TCU was ranked 3rd in 2011.

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

Another question: should extreme chaos happen, what happens to BYU if they are ahead of the AAC Champ, MAC Champ, Sun Belt Champ, C-USA Champ and MWC Champ? Do they get the "Group of Five" spot?

Carolinas Identity* · Nov 20, 2015

rangerssharks414 said:
Another question: should extreme chaos happen, what happens to BYU if they are ahead of the AAC Champ, MAC Champ, Sun Belt Champ, C-USA Champ and MWC Champ? Do they get the "Group of Five" spot?

They are not a Group of Five School, so I would guess not. I would suppose it's another "tough beans" scenario like what happened to Baylor and TCU last year.

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

Carolinas Identity said:
They are not a Group of Five School, so I would guess not. I would suppose it's another "tough beans" scenario like what happened to Baylor and TCU last year.

Okay, thanks. That sucks for them.

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

UConn in a New Year's Six bowl? It has a non-zero chance of happening!

I had A LOT of free time today, so I decided to play out all of the remaining scenarios for the Group of Five bid and see... what would happen if a major nightmare scenario happened for the bowl committee? Here's what I found:

American East
TEM (8-4): L vs. MEM, L vs. UCONN
UCONN (8-5): W vs. HOU, W at TEM, W at HOU
CINCY (6-6): W at USF, L at ECU
USF (6-6): L vs. CINCY, L at UCF
ECU (6-6): W vs. CINCY
UCF (1-11): W vs. USF

American West
MEM (10-2): W at TEM, W vs. SMU
TLSA (5-7): L vs. NAVY, L at TULN
TULN (5-7): W at SMU, W vs. TLSA
SMU (1-11): L vs. TULN, L at MEM
HOU (11-2): L at UCONN, W vs NAVY, L vs. UCONN
NAVY (10-2): W at TLSA, L at HOU, W vs. ARMY

UConn's non-conference opponents
NOVA (7-4): W at JMU
MIZZ (7-5): W vs. TENN, W at ARK
BYU (9-3): W. vs FRES, W at USU
ARMY (3-9): W vs. RUT, L vs. NAVY

Non-American teams still alive for the Group of Five bid
WKU (9-4): L at FIU, W vs. MRSH, L vs. LATECH
MRSH (9-3): L at WKU
LATECH (9-4): L at UTEP, W vs. SOMISS, W vs. WKU*
SOMISS (7-5): L vs. ODU, L at LATECH
BGSU (9-4): L at BALL, W vs. TOL*
TOL (9-3): L vs. WMICH, L vs. BGSU
NIU (8-4): L vs. OHIO
AFA (8-5): W at BOISE, L at NMEX, L vs. SDSU
BOISE (7-5): L vs. AFA, L at SJSU
NMEX (7-5): L vs. CSU, W vs. AFA
SDSU (8-5): L at UNLV, L vs. NEV, W vs. AFA*
NEV (7-5): L at USU, W at SDSU
ARKST (7-5): L at NMST, L vs. TXST*
APPST (8-4): L vs. ULL, L at USA
GASO (7-5): L at UGA, L vs. USA, L vs. GAST

If every single one of these games play out like I said they would (and there's a zero percent chance of this happening because this is complete chaos):

Your Group of Five nominees would be: (with their record in parenthesis)
UCONN (8-5)
LATECH (9-4)
BGSU (9-4)
SDSU (8-5)
ARKST (7-5)

UConn would have two wins over Houston in this scenario. Would they be the choice if these were the five options? I made sure all of their opponents had the best possible finish to the season, and I made sure that the other conference champs were as worse as possible.

In order for them to even make the American championship game, they need to win both of their remaining regular season games, Temple needs to lose both of theirs, South Florida has to lose both of theirs, and East Carolina has to beat Cincinnati.

So, in short, UConn is still mathematically alive for the Group of Five bid with two games left in the regular season. They are currently 5-5. Yes, UConn football. That is nuts!

Again, this is NOT going to happen. I had no idea that UConn was even mathematically alive for the Group of Five berth until I looked it up this morning. UConn football is usually god awful (yes, I know they "made" a BCS bowl back in 2010 or something... and got killed by Oklahoma), so I thought this was pretty funny.

hockeykicker · Nov 20, 2015

you could almost say that next friday game of navy and houston will decide the group of five at large team

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

hockeykicker said:
you could almost say that next friday game of navy and houston will decide the group of five at large team

The Group of Five team has to be a conference champ, though. If they lose their conference championship game, too bad.

But yeah, most likely, the winner of that game will make a New Year's Six bowl.

member 51464 · Nov 20, 2015

The Group of Five team has to be a conference champ, yet that has never been a requirement to make the BCS or now the playoff? That is such ********. I think too much can hinge on how a late season game goes. I think, if anything, the requirement should be something like a team can only make the playoffs if:

A) It wins its conference division
B) Is tied for most wins/fewest losses in a division with no conference championship (so last year the committee could still consider both TCU and Baylor)

C) Make up some ******** that covers independents

rangerssharks414 · Nov 20, 2015

invictus said:
The Group of Five team has to be a conference champ, yet that has never been a requirement to make the BCS or now the playoff? That is such ********. I think too much can hinge on how a late season game goes. I think, if anything, the requirement should be something like a team can only make the playoffs if:

A) It wins its conference division
B) Is tied for most wins/fewest losses in a division with no conference championship (so last year the committee could still consider both TCU and Baylor)

C) Make up some ******** that covers independents

I agree that the Group of Five team should be the best one. If the playoff is picking the four "best" teams regardless of status, then why can't the best non-power team be picked?

And, the only requirement for a non-power team for the BCS regarding a conference champion was the auto-bid if they were in the top 12, or the top 16 and ahead of a power conference champ. But technically, a non-power runner up could have gotten an at-large to a BCS bowl as long as they were in the top 14.

I hate it that Notre Dame gets these special rules set for them, yet the other two independents have to abide by different, more difficult to accomplish rules. Sure, Army football hasn't been relevant for a couple of decades now, and BYU just became an independent a few years ago. But come on... join a damn conference.

They never will though since they have that lucrative tv deal with NBC here in the states, they have special rules just for them, and I'm pretty sure they get a share of money from the ACC even though they aren't even in the conference.

Regarding the Big 12 and not having a conference championship game, I believe the Sun Belt is the only other conference that doesn't have a conference championship game. I think the Big 12 should go after BYU and Memphis to bring them back up to 12.

Carolinas Identity* · Nov 21, 2015

rangerssharks414 said:
I agree that the Group of Five team should be the best one. If the playoff is picking the four "best" teams regardless of status, then why can't the best non-power team be picked?

And, the only requirement for a non-power team for the BCS regarding a conference champion was the auto-bid if they were in the top 12, or the top 16 and ahead of a power conference champ. But technically, a non-power runner up could have gotten an at-large to a BCS bowl as long as they were in the top 14.

I hate it that Notre Dame gets these special rules set for them, yet the other two independents have to abide by different, more difficult to accomplish rules. Sure, Army football hasn't been relevant for a couple of decades now, and BYU just became an independent a few years ago. But come on... join a damn conference.

They never will though since they have that lucrative tv deal with NBC here in the states, they have special rules just for them, and I'm pretty sure they get a share of money from the ACC even though they aren't even in the conference.

Regarding the Big 12 and not having a conference championship game, I believe the Sun Belt is the only other conference that doesn't have a conference championship game. I think the Big 12 should go after BYU and Memphis to bring them back up to 12.

People will hate me for saying this because I bring it up a lot (homer fan gon homer), but there was some talk last year after the Big XII fiasco, of Bob Bowlsby calling ECU, BYU, BSU & Memphis and taking the first two teams that said yes.

/me hides from whatever Gene is about to throw at me :laugh:

GKJ · Nov 21, 2015

I forget what the rule is on the Group of 5. Is it simply the best non-Power 5 school, or do they have to be so high in the rankings?

rangerssharks414 · Nov 21, 2015

GKJ said:
I forget what the rule is on the Group of 5. Is it simply the best non-Power 5 school, or do they have to be so high in the rankings?

Highest ranked non-power conference champ

GKJ · Nov 21, 2015

rangerssharks414 said:
Highest ranked non-power conference champ

Should be interesting. Temple laid a whoopin' on Memphis which I'm hoping gets them back into the Top 25. If they win the American they will be regardless. Houston and Navy in an eliminator next week.

hockeykicker · Nov 21, 2015

GKJ said:
Should be interesting. Temple laid a whoopin' on Memphis which I'm hoping gets them back into the Top 25. If they win the American they will be regardless. Houston and Navy in an eliminator next week.

That Houston Navy game will be fun. But Houston is having all sorts of trouble with UConn right now and who knows how Navy will do tonight vs tulsa

Carolinas Identity* · Nov 22, 2015

What's the Over//Under in the Navy//Houston game? like 120? :laugh:

rangerssharks414 · Nov 24, 2015

What does everyone's top 4 look like?

Mine is (in order): Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Michigan State.

Iowa and Notre Dame would be my next two.

Iowa hasn't really beaten anyone outside of Northwestern. Notre Dame struggled with Boston College last week, and their only notable wins are against Navy and Temple.

I expect it to be (in order): Clemson, Alabama, Iowa, Notre Dame, but we'll see.

Big Poppa Puck · Nov 24, 2015

1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. Iowa
4. Michigan St.

5. Oklahoma
6. Notre Dame

Carolinas Identity* · Nov 24, 2015

My top 3 in order is Clemson, Alabama, Iowa. Four will depend. OU and ND don't have Title games to play, but I would take either of them over any of the other B1G Schools.

ND is ahead atm, but I think OU is a vastly superior team, so I will put them at four for now.

NCAA: 2015-16 Playoff/New Year's Six Watch

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