2014 OHL Priority Selection Prospects
- Thread starter Daneurism
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As Sean mentioned, I think you're putting a lot of stock into a very small sample size of games.
I'd be shocked if you found one OHL team who had Tonge ahead of Paquette on their draft board.
As for Dunn, he's certainly laboured through the recent weeks but he's probably done enough where he'll still be a first round pick or very early second rounder. He's got the tools so hopefully a good summer of off-ice development will put him in a position to be successful with a clean slate in the OHL next year.
Smallish players do play and contribute in the OHL, but usually in their 2nd or 3rd years. Not too many Domis or Fabbris.
Rumblings out there have the 3 US Kids going 1,2, 3- Chychrun (dual), Jones, Brown, and then followed by possibly Mcleod and Mascherin.
Rumblings out there have the 3 US Kids going 1,2, 3- Chychrun (dual), Jones, Brown, and then followed by possibly Mcleod and Mascherin.
No way Belleville would select an american in the 1st. But taking Chychrun #1 would be a no brainer.
Chewer, I would agree that US kids might go 1,2,3 and a few more might creep into the first round. Keenan Suthers a Sun County kid that has played the last few years in Detroit, what is his status? I heard he might go the college route.
Those other 2 guys are no brainers. Brown and Jones should be rated #2 and #3. Size and skill in this draft is very rare. Those 2 guys have it.
Wouldn't Brown also have dual? And I heard he was leaning towards the US national program so it might be pretty risky taking him top 3.
Brown is dual. If selected #3. They will know the player and agent are on board before making this move. It would not be a risk if taken that high. If Brown signed with the USNTDP before the draft, no one would touch him in the Top 10.
SeanLafortune
@SeanLafortune
Thats a fairly old school thought process.
Im not sure that team success at the Minor Midget loop will have much baring on the Draft. Looking back to the 96's, Dal Colle lost in the semi-finals, Corneil was out in the first round, both where top 10 picks. Last year, Garrett McFadden didn't get a sniff of the OMHA's, Mitchell Vande Sompel and Ethan Szypula lost to Kitchener in their first playoff series, and they where first round picks. We all know Marner didn't get an OHL Cup invite, he seems to be doing fine in London. Point being, there is alot of documented history to suggest that players on average teams (or teams that under perform as was the case with last year's London Knights team) still will get looks because of their play over the year. Vande Sompel has been outstanding in Oshawa this year, but was average in the playoffs. Its not as if Oshawa was worried about it, they knew what they where getting with him. The draft is a crap shoot to begin with, you can't over think things and get cute.
Talent will prevail over team success at this level. You scout players, not teams.
And for the record, Anthony Salintri will be a top 15 pick.
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I'm curious to see how the recently amended NCAA rules with respect to contacting prospective players will have on the OHL and players committing to NCAA programs.
When talking about those types of players in this years draft, Chase Campbell is brought up. Not very tall but a very strong sturdy build. Has anyone noticed how Campbell shoots the puck ? One of the best wrist shots in the draft.
How many players got drafted out of Oakville last year Sean? Then look at last year's Grey Bruce team, and they only got one drafted. Where you play does matter on draft day.
SeanLafortune
@SeanLafortune
I thought we where debating winning playoff series and its effect on draft stock?
Oakville had that many players drafted because they are quality players. They recruited players from all over North America. Grey Bruce, outside of Van Ooteghem, didn't really have anyone else outside of McFadden that was really draft worth IMO, that's coming from someone who saw them play 20 plus times. In the second half of the draft, perhaps teams will lean towards players who have been in a winning situation, but that's when draft picks are lottery tickets at best. Some teams use them to pick US players, some take friends, some take high potential guys, there is no one answer to that.
I've had that conversation with parents over the years about 'teams' and geography, but I haven't had it with many scouts. I haven't heard a guy say 'we can't take him, he doesn't play for the Marlies', or 'he didn't win a playoff round, we can't take him'. If they was the case, they guys that I mentioned previously like Vande Sompel wouldn't have gone where they went.
You can feel differently, but we will have to agree to disagree.
As far as Salintiri goes, once he's healthy, should finish the year in Leamington's top 9 forward core.
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Mr. Lafortune
I have been monitoring your posts for the last few years and must say I am impress with not only your knowledge of the local minor hockey scene put also the positive spin you try and place on almost every posting and player evaluation. All your postings are normally positive; but when criticism is given it is still done in a positive and constructive manner. Even your famous encounter (twitter) with Mr. T at the beginning of the year when you were evaluating the Sudbury Wolves young core was handled in a professional and conciliatory manner.
Looking forward to more of your posts and hopefully some of the folks that feel a need to use this site -and other social media venues- to attack and/or embarrassed teenagers in pursuit of their dream will learn from you!
"Talent will prevail over team success at this level. You scout players, not teams. "
Couldn't agree more. If you're good, they will find you. Simple as that. It's the sole job of a scout.
Couldn't agree more. If you're good, they will find you. Simple as that. It's the sole job of a scout.
Sean, I do have to give you credit that you are very familiar with junior hockey and the players that are in play at this years draft, and I do think we are on the same page with the later rounds in the draft.
He is undeniably the best prospect this year, with fantastic offensive ability. He should be first overall pick.
However, he will have difficulty at the next level in his own zone, as he has deficiencies in respect to positional play. Even at the recent Prospects Game, they had to play Thom with him, as Thom may be regarded as one of the top 3 stay at home dmen in the 98 group. Later in the game, he played a lot with Mete, and Team White's lead went from 5-1 to 5-5. LOL.
OMG67
Registered User
- Sep 1, 2013
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Generally speaking, you are correct. However, there are a few caveats to that.
I think certain players may get advanced or set back because of team success and their involvement in it. The scouts do get to see those players in more higher pressure situations during playdowns for championships....especially when the team is supposed to perform at a higher level and they didn't get it done. In those cases, you need to look at reasons and how and if that player contributed to that failure. That can have an influence on diminished draft positioning, even if it means a drop from top 10 to bottom 10 of the first round.
Conversely, certain players that do have stellar finishes don't get the draft respect they deserve. Look at Monahan. He was drafted rather low considering his dominant performance at the OHL Cup. Heck, I think Gustavsen was the only other skater drafted from that Mississauga team. In that case, team success was meaningless from the perspective of the OHL draft. I think Gustavsen was a mid round pick too (7th?).
At some point, certain aspects of playoff team performance needs to come into play when evaluating players. It is not just about talent. It is also about compete and team play. Anyone can have a good or bad weekend and I agree that their stock should not fall or rise based on one single weekend tournament. However, when the playoffs come and you start seeing players falter or rise to the occasion over that period, I think that should play a factor in questioning whether a player rises or falls on the draft sheets.
That being said, in general, the team's talent level should not dictate the player evaluations. Weaker teams that have one or two players of high OHL calibre should be given the same weight as stronger teams loaded with top end OHL talent from an evaluation standpoint. Performance based on expectations SHOULD play a factor.
When a player like Monahan carries his team through a highly competitive OHL Cup and ends up 16th overall, it speaks volumes about mistakes made falling in love with players too early in the process though.
There were a number of good players in Monahan's draft year, Galcheyuk,Gaunce,Laughton,Koekoek etc. who were picked before him. You also have to remember AAA lit it up at the OHL Cup and the 67's thought they stole him in the 3rd or 4th round he hasn't done much in Ottawa.
SeanLafortune
@SeanLafortune
Appreciate the kind words. I still get laugh's from people over the 'infamous' (my word) twitter discussion. I'm a big believer that 15 and 16 year old players shouldn't have to read alot of negativity on message boards or social media. Its not that hard to craft feedback in a way that keeps things honest yet respectful. Im happy to provide honest, credible feedback on any player, but there are some delivery methods that work, and others that don't.
Its all about perspective and expectations. As an example, If a player on Windsor doesn't play in the OHL Cup, it certainly doesn't hurt Salintiri. There are also way to many examples of players who had poor to average OHL Cups that didn't see their stock affected at all (and moved forward to strong OHL careers), because we already knew what they where.
To quote a friend of mine who is the Head Scout of a team, 'The main reason why I go to the OHL Cup is to make sure that players haven't fallen off a cliff'
You have to be careful with those situations thou. For every Monahan, there's an Abou Assaly. For every Cousins, there's a Broek, and for every Berisha, there is a Perklin. That tournament can make you look like a star, and even Ottawa didn't expect that Monahan would become the player he became. They pick top 8th, they go with someone else at the time. You can't over react when a player plays well over 3-4 days, odds are its not the norm. You'll miss some players, sure, but you'll be safer in the long term with less misses.
Hey Sean, do scouts (you included) look at player statistics often? I know you can't make a decision based on stats but how much of a factor do teams see it as?
Watched OVT vs Jr67's Tuesday night. Finished in a 4-4 tie. Felhaber was electric. Really showed some high end speed and finish. So dangerous one on one. If he's left uncovered for a split second he can make you pay. He seems to be playing faster and with a lot more confidence. He's really elevated his play recently. He's really solidified a first round selection and is now making a play for top 10 status. IMO
Bitten was all over the ice and doing his usual thing, but wasn't able to convert. He never quit skating and distributed the puck effectively. Had some opportunities but his line only converted once. He competes so hard in all 3 zones.
Egan was a force on the back end for OVT. His agility and speed are his best assets. His first pass is on the tape and he can jump up into the play because he has the speed to get back if need be. Love his game.
Carter looked great for 67's. Really had jump in is game and scored a couple of goals. Soft hands and great vision.
Reynolds looked fast and physical. Really hard to control down low and for a big kid, moved quite well. Showed some serious compete. He seems to be picking his game up recently. Showed some finish as well.
Collins looked fast out there. He could have engaged more physically, but he can sure fly. He projects to the next level IMO
It makes sense if Felhaber is the 3rd Ontario forward to be drafted. U can make the case for other's, but u can make a case for Felhaber as well in my opinion. He could go top 5.
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