Interesting consideration. I have the top 3 as Ghost, Laughton, and Morin. I think Ghost has the highest star potential, lowest floor (if his offense fails to translate). Laughton has the lowest ceiling, highest floor. Morin is in the middle on both because of his size, pedigree and skating for a big man, while still being raw and slightly immature. Sanhiem comes in right behind based on a very limited track record.
Been touting him for a while now, so I figure I'll ride the Gostisbehere train until I look stupid or like a genius. I fully believe he will be a major offensive threat (think 60+ point defenseman).
Wow. This is tough. As tough as I can remember. I could make a case for Morin, Gostisbehere, and Sanheim. I don't even consider Laughton as our #1 guy as strange as that may seem. Some may take that as a dis, but I rank guys according to how likely I would be to trade them. I just think the upside of all 3 defenseman outweigh what Laughton may be. Homerism aside, I think all 3 could be #1 defensemen. Not exactly a probability for any of them, but certainly a possibility. I think there is a very good chance we will finally get our number 1 guy among this crop. The hard part for me is deciding who has the best chance.
Morin- On pure ceiling, he is #1 no doubt. He checks just about every box. His pure gifts are some of the best in all of junior hockey. He has the potential to dominate in all 3 zones. Whether he becomes a #1 will depend on how much he produces offensively. I was pretty optimistic about his offensive game going back to before he was even selected and I'm still optimistic, but he has to keep progressing.
Gostisbehere- he will have to produce offensively at not just a good level, but at an elite level to be considered a #1. I don't think he will be a liability defensively because he's too good of a skater, but I don't think his size will ever allow him to dominate like Morin could. His intangibles are off the charts though and that moves him up a few notches in my book.
Sanheim- This kid is just scratching the surface of his potential. He's a happy medium between Morin and Gostisbehere. Big frame. Great skater. Really smart. Really good puck skills. As he fills out, he's going to be scary. The only thing left to see is how his play carries over this season. I expect big things from him this year, but development wise he's behind the other two for obvious reasons. While Morin has the highest upside, I think Sanheim has a better probability of reaching his. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he is #1 on this list come next season. Really excited about his future.
I still think Hagg will surprise us Flyers fans...he has Timonen's vision and can log the minutes on the ice but with more size. I watched him closely at the Worlds and he is very mobile and not scared to use his body.
Haha, how do you even remember that? If Akeson is on the list I wouldn't put him ahead of Laughton. Also I'm not as big on Akeson as I was on MAB (and I really wasn't even that big on MAB...I don't really remember what my MAB-related posts were about last season...likely something to do with the fact that if not for injuries he'd be an NHL regular probably?).
Been touting him for a while now, so I figure I'll ride the Gostisbehere train until I look stupid or like a genius. I fully believe he will be a major offensive threat (think 60+ point defenseman).
I put Morin #1. He's still something of a project but that upside is just too much to ignore.
Otoh, I'm probably a bit more skeptical regarding Ghost than most here. I seriously wonder how well his offensive game will translate to the NHL. Granted I've only seen him in the WJC (not that impressive), the NCAA championship game (very impressive but he won't be able to do that in the NHL) and a couple games with the Phantoms at the end of the year. I want to see more of him in the AHL, playing against men, before I'm convinced that he will be more than a PP specialist type guy. I do think potentially he could turn out to be a Brian Rafalski type player, which would be great. But I need to see more of him against tougher competition than he faced in the NCAA.
For me Gostisbehere has unquestionable offensive tools for the NHL level. I kind of think you're being unfair saying he can't replicate that NCAA Championship performance in the NHL, you can take any prospect playing outside the NHL and make a similar argument (for example Brayden Schenn's 2011 WJC). It doesn't mean I think he's going to be the next Brian Leetch, but I think it's an unfair argument to take a game he dominated and try to twist it by saying "well yeah but he's not going to do that in the NHL".
I'm not worried about Ghost's offense at all. He's so smart and skilled, I don't think it's going to be an issue for him. His biggest issue is his size. There aren't any top pairing defensemen in the NHL built like Ghost. I'm not saying he can't be one - there are guys like Duncan Keith who really don't rely on size or physicality to defend and make up for it with skating. Ghost would be a very unique case though, if he were to become that type of player for us. ...
When was the last time that the Flyers 5th best prospect (I'm assuming it will be Hagg) has a ceiling of a top pairing defenseman? I mean seriously, he's all but a lock to be 5th in this ranking and he's already played 2 years of high level professional hockey and then when he was barely 19 he put up 4 points in the final 10 games of the Phantoms season.
Now we have
Laughton
Ceiling: 2nd liner center
Safe Prediction: 3rd line 2-way center
Morin
Ceiling: #1 defenseman
Safe prediction: #2/3 defenseman
Sanheim
Ceiling: #1 defenseman
Safe Prediction: #3 defenseman
Ghost
Ceiling: 1st pairing defenseman
Safe Prediction: #4 defenseman
Hagg
Ceiling: 1st pairing defenseman
Safe Prediction: #4 defenseman
What I mean is, the kind of game he was able to play in the NCAA- the style, the stuff that worked at that level, most of that (from what I've seen) is not going to work against NHL players. In my opinion of course. I don't think that's unfair at all. By contrast, I think Hagg's game will translate well at the NHL level.
I would rate Ghost and Hagg about equally as prospects, Ghost probably has the higher ceiling but I think Hagg has a better chance to reach his ceiling. I'm basing this only off of what I've seen of them. Which is why I say I want to see more of Ghost at the AHL level. I could be wrong of course, but I have a fairly strong sense of the kind of player Hagg will be in the NHL. I don't have that feeling for Ghost yet.
The NCAA and the NHL are actually quite similar. Both leagues are very physical and heavily reliant on team play and good defense more so than the Junior leagues. I feel Ghosts game will translate very well to the NHL level. If you watch Ghost from his sophomore season to his junior season you would notice one giant difference in his game. In his second season, Ghost did whatever he wanted. He would join rush after rush and freewheeling with puck. In his Junior year, he not really more conservative rather he was just smarter. He picked his spots much better and he improved his passing game tremendously, becoming a stretch pass machine.
If he was still sophomore Ghost I could understand the uncertainty. But Junior Ghost is a much better player and he has really evolved his game into something that will translate well at the next level.
As for Hagg, I wasn't particularly impressed with his play this year, but I wasn't disappointed either, he is making steps in the right direction. I still feel his ceiling is too low to be ahead of someone with as much potential as Ghost.
None of those are safe predictions, and I also think the ceilings of those players is a bit unrealistic. Don't get me wrong I agree with the point of your post, which is that it's nice that we have projectable defenseman in our system. However, I think we as fans are getting a bit carried away.
I see Hagg's ceiling as a Hjalmarsson type (perhaps with a bit more offense), a guy who just never really stands out and is just a very efficient 2nd pairing defenseman. Does everything well, but there isn't really any aspect of his game that is truly dominant.
Sanheim is still very raw, we hear him compared to McDonagh and get all giddy but considering the small sample size I think you're being really generous saying his safe prediction is a 2 or a 3.
Morin I'm excited to see what he does in the NHL. His mobility at that size is unreal, but again, his offensive game is still raw and like all men his size lateral movement can become an issue.
You've seen more of Ghost than I have so that's encouraging to hear. But NHL players are bigger, faster, and smarter than the NCAA. The talent gap isn't as big as it was back in the '70s and '80s, but it's still bigger than the CHL or the top European leagues. So that's where most of my skepticism comes from.
I'll be extremely happy to be convinced otherwise though.
As for Hagg, I know he had an up and down year in Sweden but I was quite impressed with him on the Phantoms (I watched all the games he played but one). I'd like to see a bit more offense from him though.