GDT: 2013 Caps Trade Deadline Thread II (Forsberg for Erat & Latta)

[g00n]

All fanbases simultaneously overvalue their players/prospects while also taking them for granted.

The local team and local media work together to scratch each others' backs to some extent. The teams sell hope and promise of great things, and the media reports that. In exchange for a generally favorable impression in the reporting (without being obvious propaganda) the media is allowed degrees of access. We hear more about our own prospects in this "the future is bright" context than we hear about other teams and their prospects, so we get the impression that our saviours are on the way. But fans of other teams are getting the same general impressions about their own prospects. We all have a stake in the outcome, so we buy in. And when our current players do well, it just feeds our homerism.

When the player screws up, he's suddenly the worst player in the league and even a pee wee or mite can do better. Years of watching mostly the home team has desensetized the fan to the skill of the player, and made the mistakes stand out. We are also watching for little clues regarding what to expect and how to process success and failure, so we evaluate under a microscope. But we don't have the same level of exposure or scrutiny when it comes to other teams so our players seem worse.

That's not to say every player is great and every prospect is mediocre. There are distinctions. But in general, fans are fickle, half-informed homers who probably don't even realize it. Yours truly included.

 

[442]

All fanbases simultaneously overvalue their players/prospects while also taking them for granted.

The local team and local media work together to scratch each others' backs to some extent. The teams sell hope and promise of great things, and the media reports that. In exchange for a generally favorable impression in the reporting (without being obvious propaganda) the media is allowed degrees of access. We hear more about our own prospects in this "the future is bright" context than we hear about other teams and their prospects, so we get the impression that our saviours are on the way. But fans of other teams are getting the same general impressions about their own prospects. We all have a stake in the outcome, so we buy in. And when our current players do well, it just feeds our homerism.

When the player screws up, he's suddenly the worst player in the league and even a pee wee or mite can do better. Years of watching mostly the home team has desensetized the fan to the skill of the player, and made the mistakes stand out. We are also watching for little clues regarding what to expect and how to process success and failure, so we evaluate under a microscope. But we don't have the same level of exposure or scrutiny when it comes to other teams so our players seem worse.

That's not to say every player is great and every prospect is mediocre. There are distinctions. But in general, fans are fickle, half-informed homers who probably don't even realize it. Yours truly included.

Great post. Difficult to maintain perspective and think in a non-reactionary manner.

 

[twominute]

I'm a New York Mets fan and there's one similarity I've seen between both the Caps and Mets fan bases, is an over inflation of the value of our prospects. Can you say Lastings Milledge.

i prefer to call him lasting smelledge

 

[Robert Theodorson]

McPhee never wanted to Forsberg.

MANY scouts and GM's thought that his foot speed will never get better and were very worried with him.

God. Maybe there is a reason behind it?

People are mad because Erat could have been had for much less.

Erat is on the wrong side of 30 and wanted out of Nashville, his value was not worth an organization's top prospect (I am not counting Evgeni "Screw the NHL" Kuznetsov).

Much better players were had for less.

 

[NoMoreChoking]

People are mad because Erat could have been had for much less.

Erat is on the wrong side of 30 and wanted out of Nashville, his value was not worth an organization's top prospect (I am not counting Evgeni "Screw the NHL" Kuznetsov).

Much better players were had for less.

Do people forget that we didn't just get Erat? We got a 21 year #3C that plays what many of us on here wanted for so long?

 

[caps4cup]

People are mad because Erat could have been had for much less.

Erat is on the wrong side of 30 and wanted out of Nashville, his value was not worth an organization's top prospect (I am not counting Evgeni "Screw the NHL" Kuznetsov).

Much better players were had for less.

The only better player was Pominville.

Erat is probably a better player than Iggy and Gaborik, or at least more valuable considering his much better contract, 2 way play, and similar production

 

[atomic]

McPhee never wanted to Forsberg.

MANY scouts and GM's thought that his foot speed will never get better and were very worried with him.

God. Maybe there is a reason behind it?

Well then why did the Caps draft him with the 11th pick in the draft? If you never wanted someone pick another player.

 

[DCRedhawk21]

Well then why did the Caps draft him with the 11th pick in the draft? If you never wanted someone pick another player.

I remember watching the draft when they were up for the 11th pick and waiting a couple of minutes for GMGM to discuss the pick with his scouts. Not entirely unheard of during the first round, but in the context of GMGMs quotes after the draft and what's happened since, it does make you wonder just how high they ever really were on him (FWIW I think GMGM wanted Faksa).

 

[Carlzner]

I remember watching the draft when they were up for the 11th pick and waiting a couple of minutes for GMGM to discuss the pick with his scouts. Not entirely unheard of during the first round, but in the context of GMGMs quotes after the draft and what's happened since, it does make you wonder just how high they ever really were on him (FWIW I think GMGM wanted Faksa).

So now we are trusting GMGM's judgement on Prospects? We're okay with the trade because of his judgement?

Well, he wanted Faksa, and Faksa had a pretty bad year in the OHL this past season... while Forsberg had a great year in the Allsvenskan...

 

[DCRedhawk21]

So now we are trusting GMGM's judgement on Prospects? We're okay with the trade because of his judgement?

Well, he wanted Faksa, and Faksa had a pretty bad year in the OHL this past season... while Forsberg had a great year in the Allsvenskan...

Calm down... I never said I was okay with the trade... In fact pretty much every post I made at time of the trade said this is a panic move that indicates the person making it should no longer have that responsibility. In fact I hate the trade as it stands now.

I'm just trying to make sense of it. A panic move + an ownership mandate to get that playoff $ probably explains why they made A move. But I'm trying to figure out why, specifically, it was Forsberg that got moved for an underwhelming return. And I was just agreeing/adding onto the comment that wondered why they picked him if they didn't truly believe he was the BPA worthy of an 11th overall selection.

 

[Hivemind]

Predicting that 21-25 range, which seems most likely at this point, is so difficult. Hartman being a righty might make him a little less viable but he does have the heart and agitating nature to be a very entertaining player. (I don't think Rychel has that attitude about him and he may need to play with more skill to be effective.)

Love love love Hartman. My biggest concern is with his size, but supposedly his family has had late growth spurts, and both his dad and brother are several inches taller than him right now.

So now we are trusting GMGM's judgement on Prospects? We're okay with the trade because of his judgement?

Well, he wanted Faksa, and Faksa had a pretty bad year in the OHL this past season... while Forsberg had a great year in the Allsvenskan...

Where are you getting that he wanted Faksa? And he did take Forsberg ahead of Faksa, did he not?

There are plenty of gripes towards McPhee, trying to spin one of his strengths into a weakness is laughable.

 

[DCRedhawk21]

Where are you getting that he wanted Faksa? And he did take Forsberg ahead of Faksa, did he not?

There are plenty of gripes towards McPhee, trying to spin one of his strengths into a weakness is laughable.

I was the one who mentioned Faksa, and it's part speculation and I vaguely remember reading an article that the discussion right before the selection was a "Forsberg vs. Faksa" discussion. I don't really have anything other than that, which is why I said it was speculation. It's also hardly a reach given that Grigorenko went 12th overall and Faksa went 13th, and GMGM has openly admitted that Grigorenko was not on the radar. Anyways, focusing on Faksa over Forsberg completely missed the point of my original post and I regret bringing it up...

 

[g00n]

Well then why did the Caps draft him with the 11th pick in the draft? If you never wanted someone pick another player.

"Best player available" is how some teams draft. The theory is you stock up on assets whether you need them or not. Then you can trade them later, or use them if something happens to the guy ahead of them on the depth chart.

Think of it this way. If you're picking first overall and you're in dire need of a goalie, and the top 40 prospects are all skaters, are you going to go off the board and pick that 41st ranked goalie? Hell no. You pick the top guy available, either as trade bait or as a new piece you can slot in. And/or you look to make deals for a goalie, or trade down and try to get value that way.

In GMGM's case, it's possible that he took FF with no intention of every playing him as a Cap. He could've been trade-fodder all along. In which case, you STILL have to wonder why GMGM didn't at least try to trade down as his turn to pick got closer. If some team behind the Caps wanted FF badly, maybe they would've given up their first and a 2nd or 3rd to get him.

Let's say you get the other team's 1st and their 2nd for the 11th pick. Then you have 2 top 40 prospects. But which is better...those 2 prospects, or Erat and Latta? Hard to say.

 

[Langway]

A defenseman falling to them certainly seemed to be their expectation at the time. I wonder if they would have even kept said defenseman, although it would have been difficult to justify trading Jacob Trouba given his progression.

If their plan all along was to end up dealing the picks/drafted players from the Varlamov trade then the worst decision IMO was reaching for Tom Wilson instead of the higher upside pick there in Teravainen.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Why did ted make a blog post days before the deadline praising Forseberg if he knew GMGM was shopping him. Just doesnt add up to me. If the scouts were down on him why blog about him being a key part of future?

 

[g00n]

Why did ted make a blog post days before the deadline praising Forseberg if he knew GMGM was shopping him. Just doesnt add up to me. If the scouts were down on him why blog about him being a key part of future?

To raise his trade value. Duh?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

To raise his trade value. Duh?

for Erat? makes me think Ted wasnt pushing the trade and was desperate move for GM to save his job.

 

[msrulo]

A defenseman falling to them certainly seemed to be their expectation at the time. I wonder if they would have even kept said defenseman, although it would have been difficult to justify trading Jacob Trouba given his progression.

If their plan all along was to end up dealing the picks/drafted players from the Varlamov trade then the worst decision IMO was reaching for Tom Wilson instead of the higher upside pick there in Teravainen.

Cody Ceci was also available

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Why did ted make a blog post days before the deadline praising Forseberg if he knew GMGM was shopping him. Just doesnt add up to me. If the scouts were down on him why blog about him being a key part of future?

You don't piss in your own well.

On another note this is why I don't see Orlov getting traded. You're critical of your players when you want to improve their game and you see they have a future with the team.

When players are being pumped up by their management nearing the TDL, that's marketing 101.

 

[Langway]

Cody Ceci was also available

More specifically I mean Lindholm, Pouliot, Dumba or Trouba. Reinhart & Reilly were locks to be gone but there was a chance that one or more of that group could have fallen to 11 should Forsberg, Grigorenko or Teravainen have went earlier than they did. But the run on D happened and it's better Tampa Bay did take Koekkoek over Forsberg or else the available options would have been less palatable. I wonder if they wouldn't have then taken Teravainen at 11 as the upside/flip selection and kept with the Wilson luxury pick at 16.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

A defenseman falling to them certainly seemed to be their expectation at the time. I wonder if they would have even kept said defenseman, although it would have been difficult to justify trading Jacob Trouba given his progression.

If their plan all along was to end up dealing the picks/drafted players from the Varlamov trade then the worst decision IMO was reaching for Tom Wilson instead of the higher upside pick there in Teravainen.

The early run on defensemen probably through a curve at GMGM's planned approach to the draft and it also had the consequence of having Forsberg drop to where the Caps picked him.

I agree with Goon, if you don't have a high enough pick it's better to go for the BPA rather than try to fill a need with the hope the guy pans out. The BPA can be later moved for assets especially if a team is fat at the BPA position.

 

[Ajax1995]

Do people forget that we didn't just get Erat? We got a 21 year #3C that plays what many of us on here wanted for so long?

I'm not sure what to tell you if you think Latta projects to be even a mediocre 3C at the NHL level. If Latta makes it in the NHL, and that is a big if, he projects to be Kevin Kaminski type energy line player.

 

[MrGone]

I would fell better about this trade if OV flipped the switch weeks before the deadline. Then it would seem like a move to sort of go for it. Some help for OV as we ride him into the playoffs.

But seeing no one could have seen this coming the move reeks of GMGM trying to save his job. And it puts the team right back in the same spot if they don't have a real 2C next season. I would be ok with 2-3 league minimum guys fighting for there life's every night if it means we have a 2C other then Books or Mojo.

 

[RandyHolt]

I'm not sure what to tell you if you think Latta projects to be even a mediocre 3C at the NHL level. If Latta makes it in the NHL, and that is a big if, he projects to be Kevin Kaminski type energy line player.

You say if he makes it to the NHL. Bobby Mac said he is ready. I heard he was stuck on the depth chart in Nash.

Why in the world would George insist on Kevin Kaminski or not make the trade, in a deal of this magnitude, in a win now move.

George sees upside as a 3C and so fans will too.

What do you project Filips average points to be after his first 5 NHL years. Add it to the record.

Filip is your bone of contention right, not Latta.

 

[BobRouse]

I'm not sure what to tell you if you think Latta projects to be even a mediocre 3C at the NHL level. If Latta makes it in the NHL, and that is a big if, he projects to be Kevin Kaminski type energy line player.

Why Kaminski and not Steve Downie or Steve Ott?

McKenzie compared him favorably to Downie. He further said he is ready to play NOW. Do you know something Bobby Mac does not?

If so please share it.