Pre-Game Talk: 2013-2014 Training Camp/Preseason Discussion Thread Part 2

[eco's bones]

It is a tricky situation, I agree.

The only way I see out of it is to deal Girardi and Callahan (also on the verge of a big overpayment) to separate teams and get younger, cheaper players beck for the equivalent roles.

I had a series of trades in mind in the other thread that basically came down to Callahan and Girardi for Gallagher, Fayne, and Pysyk (Callahan to Buffalo, not NJ!). But both MTL and BUF fans seem disinterested.

Though going by some Devils fans Fayne could be had for a 2nd, which any team should jump all over. If we could get Fayne for just picks we could trade Girardi for picks/futures.

But that is never going to happen.

Much rather keep Girardi than get Fayne and/or Pysyk.

As for Callahan--I think the Rangers will go to great lengths to keep their captain.

Both these guys are proven warriors.

 

[Blue Blooded]

OK, that's what I thought, and I disagree to a certain extent. I do agree with you that Stralman's puck-moving ability is very good, but it's nowhere near the level of Karlsson/Letang. Those elite guys avoid a lot of the wear and tear that's normally associated with big blueline minutes because they turn the puck around quickly and spend a lot of time in the other end of the rink.

I don't, however, disagree that a 1b pairing with Stralman on it would be a bad thing.

Staal-Girardi also seem to have more synergy than McD-Girardi. It wasn't included in my earlier analysis as it only focused on the main pairing each season (McD-G 2011-13, Staal-G 2010-11), but in the ~100 adjusted 5v5 minutes Staal-Girardi were together in 2012-13 they had better possession numbers than either one of them had separately and they outscored the opposition 3-0 (exactly, not a ratio).

McDonagh and Strålman as earlier stated seems to have bring the best out of each other, so that should also be encouraged.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

This isn't baseball. Corsi stats are irrelevant imo.

Corsi is a fine statistic if used correctly, in correlation with watching a player and other stats. I've found that, for the most part, Corsi is in line my opinion of a player more often than not.

No, Corsi is not an end all be all stat, and people who use it as such tarnish the credibility of it. Posters like Blue Blooded, however, know how to use that stat the way it should be used.

Should also mention that it seems NHL management figures are starting to use advanced statistics to assist with player evaluation. AV reportedly likes to use advanced statistics.

 

[Tawnos]

Corsi is a fine statistic if used correctly, in correlation with watching a player and other stats. I've found that, for the most part, Corsi is in line my opinion of a player more often than not.

No, Corsi is not an end all be all stat, and people who use it as such tarnish the credibility of it. Posters like Blue Blooded, however, know how to use that stat the way it should be used.

Should also mention that it seems NHL management figures are starting to use advanced statistics to assist with player evaluation. AV reportedly likes to use advanced statistics.

This is true. I just happen to think that Girardi is one of those players where Corsi, and other advanced stats, don't line up with what my eyes are telling me. People need to remember that these stats are correlative, not causative (not technical statistician terms, but you get the idea).

 

[Doctyl]

This is true. I just happen to think that Girardi is one of those players where Corsi, and other advanced stats, don't line up with what my eyes are telling me. People need to remember that these stats are correlative, not causative (not technical statistician terms, but you get the idea).

my eyes have told me that if G isnt paired with an elite dman he is crap

 

[Boom Boom Geoffrion*]

Over a large enough sample, these things even out. One time your partner is nicked up, another one of the opponents are. These are obviously big factors in the particular moment, and we like to think they have as big effect on the whole. But that is just not how it is.

Re. Hitting and winning. There was a study made this summer in lieu of Leafs management talking about what they were considering important factors for winning which were pretty much the opposite views from the hockey analytics community. A Leaf fan took it upon himself to examine which statistics actually correlated with winning. The chosen data set was the past six seasons as most modern stats have only been counted as far back as that.

Road hits (to avoid biased counters) had a correlation with P% of 1.5% and with W% of 0.3%.

Compare that to say 5v5 Close CF% which had a correlation of 58.4% to P% and 55.1% to W%. Just to show the difference in magnitude. 5v5 CF% is also repeatable, which means that a team can sustain it over several seasons.

For example 5v5 GF% is most closely correlated with winning, which is hardly surprising, but it isn't nearly as repeatable as 5v5 CF%. This meaning that GF% is likely a lot more based on random chance than CF%.

I'd like to compare every single players Corsi ratings one day, just for fun. I'm curious to see where the elite, great, good, average, and terrible players rank. The results will probably shock the hell out of us and provide the forum with LOL's for a long time.

my eyes have told me that if G isnt paired with an elite dman he is crap

You're eyes are deceiving you.

Cruel, cruel eyes. Can't trust 'em.

 

[NY Lito]

my eyes have told me that if G isnt paired with an elite dman he is crap

I don't think he's crap, but he certainly isn't the shutdown "elite" defenseman that so many people have him marked down as.

I've been saying this for years: we should look to move Girardi while his value/reputation is so high. I love the crap out of him but he won't be worth his next contract, whether we give it to him or especially if he hits UFA. Trade him now for a PMD.

 

[16 To Stanley*]

Corsi is a fine statistic if used correctly, in correlation with watching a player and other stats. I've found that, for the most part, Corsi is in line my opinion of a player more often than not.

No, Corsi is not an end all be all stat, and people who use it as such tarnish the credibility of it. Posters like Blue Blooded, however, know how to use that stat the way it should be used.

Should also mention that it seems NHL management figures are starting to use advanced statistics to assist with player evaluation. AV reportedly likes to use advanced statistics.

You can't rely on Corsi like you can for "indivdiaul" sports like baseball. Many players are products of their environement.

Girardi's "corsi" may be better than a higher end d-man, because he is always playing with someone who is a true top pairing guy (Staal or McD).

For example, if you take a look at the 2011-2012 season for Corsi stats, and you go to, what i would say is a rather important one, in shooting % while a player is on ice, you'll see, the leader is Stamkos. Makes sense, right, the guy scored 60 plus goals that year.

Then you see the other leaders up there, Zubrus, Purcell, etc. Why are those guys there. A person relying on Corsi thinks the "logical" way, well Purcell must have been either A) drawing a lot of attention to himself, therefore opening up ice for others, B) making great passes C) scoring a lot of goals himself or D) all of the above.

Fact is, the only reason guys like Purcell and Zubrus are on there, is because Kovalchuk and Stamkos/St. Louis are potting goals left and right.

Nearly every single Corsi stat can be alluded (outside of the top tier guys) to their surroundings.

Generally, a third line player on Florida, isn't going to match up to a third line player on say, Boston.

Corsi is much more effective when looked at with individual performences (ala baseball, tennis, etc).

Using it in hockey is extremely short-sighted.

 

[Tawnos]

my eyes have told me that if G isnt paired with an elite dman he is crap

Based on a handful of games with Del Zotto this year. And don't say other times, because there aren't any. Unless you include when he was paired with Tyutin, but he looked great back then.

Your eyes deceive you and/or you have a very short memory. Either that, or you aren't very good at understanding what you're seeing.

I don't know of a single voice within the game, whether I respect them or not, who believes Girardi isn't a top shutdown defenseman. These are the professionals, and their opinion happens to agree with mine. Only other Rangers fans seem to not understand what we have in Girardi. I'll keep believing what in what I see and what the experts say.

 

[RangerBoy]

Ryan Callahan and Carl Hagelin, both rehabbing from postseason shoulder surgery, are participating in all drills, though neither has been cleared for contact.

“They’ve looked good and are coming along nicely,†Vigneault said during a conference call Friday afternoon. “At some point in the next while, I figure somebody will come up to me and tell me they’re ready for contact, but their overall rehab is what everybody predicted.â€

Neither is expected to be in the lineup when the Rangers open the regular season in Phoenix on Oct. 3. Callahan is believed to be a couple of weeks ahead of Hagelin in the rehab process, and as such might be able to join the lineup two or three weeks into the season. Chances are Hagelin will be placed on Long Term Injury, thus rendering him ineligible to play for at least the first 10 games.

“Ryan I think is a little ahead of Carl as far as shooting the puck,†Vigneault said. “Carl is more of a controlled motion and is not as committed to his shot right now as Ryan may be.â€

Long-term IR is 10 games and 24 days.

AV is moving Boyle to the wing to get a look at him there

http://nypost.com/2013/09/20/rangers-callahan-hagelin-making-progress-after-surgeries/

 

[Leetch3]

depending on what stepan signs for (if he ever does) it might make sense to just put cally and hags both on LTIR. both were projected to return early nov and we play 12 games in oct. so if they are forced to 10 games whats the worst case scenario really? cally is ready and has to sit 1 extra game? its not like he's gonna be ready at game 5.

and then you aren't forced to waive someone that you might not want to waive until they return.

of course i'm sure they are hoping for both to return at the home opener

 

[Brooklyn Ranger]

Statistics are useful, but can't explain the way a combination can be more than the sum its parts. People on this board talk all the time about a great defensive pairing: Leetch and Beukeboom. Can statistics explain the chemistry they had when they played together? I don't think so, but as someone who watched almost every single game they played together (many in person), I can tell you one thing--it worked.

We've all seen it--some players work well together, even though on paper it makes no sense. There are too many variables in a game with the kind of speed involved.

Girardi is a complimentary player--statistically he may not appear to be a "shutdown" or all-star defenseman, but the reality is that he is steady and can play 25 minutes a night over a whole season against the best players in the game. Plus, he's a right handed shot. He's not the star on defense, but he's the glue that solidifies it. Ultimately he's replaceable, but it may not be as easy as it looks statistically to find his sucessor.

 

[BBKers]

More from Brooks

Vigneault seems inclined to keep Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh together on defense as the club’s shutdown pair while Marc Staal skates with Michael Del Zotto and John Moore combines with Anton Stralman.
“I like to have a shutdown pair and I like to have a pair that can play with our top line for offensive zone faceoffs,†Vigneault said. “I like the way Michael steps into the attack, and playing with Marc Staal, who is such a good two-way player.â€

Music to my ears. No more "we don't practice offense".

 

[Captain Monglobster]

Hockey players are flesh and blood not 1's and 0's.

 

[Machinehead]

Ryan McDonagh and Derick Brassard are guys that just make me wanna watch the Rangers to see what happens next. We didn't have guys like this in the early 2000's when we were really awful. It's nice.

I mean we still stink, but I have a few players I can latch onto now. I suppose just one more positive summer thought for you all before the season starts and I go full sociopath.

 

[Kwayry]

This would be a disaster.

Strålman is the epitome of the undervalued defenceman - i.e. a defenceman that you get the most value per paid dollar for. He is a PMD that doesn't put up big points.

Chicago's D is stacked with this type of guys. Hjalmarsson, Oduya, Rozsival.

Players with a lot of hits and blocks are on the other hand overvalued. Teams have to pay more for these guys despite the fact that hits and blocks doesn't contribute to winning games. Chicago already let go of Bolland as he is paid too much for his contributions. They should also consider trading Seabrook.

These guys aren't useless, but since they are overvalued around the league the best way to use them is to exploit the market inefficiency and trade them for undervalued assets. That way you make a net gain in value.

I don't think you have any idea of what you are talking about.

The kind of hockey you like to watch is the european style hockey more on the softer side.
In the NHL, players who have the heart and guts to throw their body in front of 100 MPH pucks, who play the body and can shutdown the competition top players are highly valued because they have a valuable skillset, not because of a "market inefficiency".

Let me see, who should I believe, some bloggers who probably have never played the game or my eyes, NHL GM's and people who have been around hockey all their lives. Hummm, that's a tough choice

What I won't respect is some kids who don't know the game pretend they do and insult players who put their bodies on the line each and every game and call them useless.

What I'm saying is that if they can handle the wear and tear of 1st pairing minutes (one concern regarding Strålman), it shouldn't be a big factor.

What I'm saying is that considering how well Strålman handled his minutes last year, and how extremely successful the McDonagh-Strålman pairing was (outscoring the opposition 19-5 5v5, dominating possession). I think he should be on a 1A pairing with McDonagh to the 1B pairing of Staal-Girardi.

I'm just saying that while there isn't a lot of evidence that he could handle 1st pairing minutes (since he barely has played in the role), there isn't any evidence that he couldn't.

Stralman has struggled throughout his career, he played sheltered minutes under Torts' tough love and finally did well, now he can take over first pairing minutes? Jumping the gun, are't you kid?
I am pretty confident that Stralman as a top pairing D is a disaster waiting to happen.

This is what Torts said about Stralman:

I like him because he has stepped up when we’ve kicked him

Funny line, but guess what? Torts is not around anymore to kick him, so let's see how he handles the lack of kicking.
By the way, which advanced stat shows how much kicking it took for Stralman to step up?
He is good at what he is; a bottom pairing Dman who can play top 4 in a pinch.
The only place where there is no evidence that he cannot handle top pairing minutes is your imagination.

It is a tricky situation, I agree.

The only way I see out of it is to deal Girardi and Callahan (also on the verge of a big overpayment) to separate teams and get younger, cheaper players beck for the equivalent roles.

I had a series of trades in mind in the other thread that basically came down to Callahan and Girardi for Gallagher, Fayne, and Pysyk (Callahan to Buffalo, not NJ!). But both MTL and BUF fans seem disinterested.

Though going by some Devils fans Fayne could be had for a 2nd, which any team should jump all over. If we could get Fayne for just picks we could trade Girardi for picks/futures.

But that is never going to happen.

So it's not only Girardi that you have problems against, it's Callahan too. Interesting you don't seem to like their physical style. On the other hand, you like Stralman, Fayne, Pysyk and Gardiner, not as physical. To each his own, but don't come here and insult players who play with heart, you don't seem to appreciate or even know what that means.
Since there is no advanced stat that measures how big a heart or cojones are, I am pretty sure you consider them useless.

 

[Raspewtin]

a little OT but I would trade Girardi for Phaneuf without even blinking.

 

[Pizza]

a little OT but I would trade Girardi for Phaneuf without even blinking.

Why specifically? Just curious.

 

[Faxius]

...


What I won't respect is some kids who don't know the game pretend they do and insult players who put their bodies on the line each and every game and call them useless.

...

He ain't completely wrong though, and you are putting words in his mouth. He specifically said IN that exact quote that these types of players AREN'T useless.

 

[RangerBoy]

What's wrong with making Callahan and Girardi perform for their contracts? Keep the pressure on them.

 

[Kakko]

Alright, our boys are out west, and I need some help. I have no idea who the three of the left are.

 

[eco's bones]

Statistics are useful, but can't explain the way a combination can be more than the sum its parts. People on this board talk all the time about a great defensive pairing: Leetch and Beukeboom. Can statistics explain the chemistry they had when they played together? I don't think so, but as someone who watched almost every single game they played together (many in person), I can tell you one thing--it worked.

We've all seen it--some players work well together, even though on paper it makes no sense. There are too many variables in a game with the kind of speed involved.

Girardi is a complimentary player--statistically he may not appear to be a "shutdown" or all-star defenseman, but the reality is that he is steady and can play 25 minutes a night over a whole season against the best players in the game. Plus, he's a right handed shot. He's not the star on defense, but he's the glue that solidifies it. Ultimately he's replaceable, but it may not be as easy as it looks statistically to find his sucessor.

Great post.

 

[cd211]

Alright, our boys are out west, and I need some help. I have no idea who the three of the left are.

stuy is next to biron(his left) then brad richards, then the last guy on the left who the hell knows

 

[silverfish]

Alright, our boys are out west, and I need some help. I have no idea who the three of the left are.

Hank looks absolutely ****ing hilarious in this picture. It's like he didn't even jump, he's just floating there



EDIT - Pretty obvious what AV's plan is for this team when fully healthy/signed...

Kreider - Richards - Nash
Hagelin - Stepan - Callahan
Pouliot - Brassard - Zuccarello
Dorsett - Moore - Boyle
Asham/Haley

McD - G
Staal - DZ
Moore - Stralman
AJ/Syrvet/Bickel

Hank
Marty

If Richards can put up 50 points this season, this is a team that can go deep.

EDIT 2 - I forgot Pyatt existed...

 

[Fitzy]

Our left wing side is obviously the weakest, but it's all about finding the right chemistry with those three guys (Kreider, Hagelin, Pouliot)

Pouliot is off to a nice run with Brassard and Zucc, even though that line is a horror show defensively. Hagelin worked well with Stepan and Nash last year.

But if we get the right chemistry, it's a very nice 3 line attack. If our LW's disappoint... we may have to move Zuccarello to the left side and go to a more 2 line attack.

One thing I still don't like is our assortment on the power play. Having Girardi and Staal out there... no one is worried about them doing anything creative with the puck. They're basically just a dummy conduit to move the puck to one side or the other. I'd like to see Moore, Stralman, Del Zotto as d-men PP, and no one else. The team can make due with that.