Speculation: 2013 - 2014 Season Roster Part 5

[Mosby]

Whenever we have Z back, I don't think Girardi would be necessary. We already have Z, DMo, Stone, Murphy on the RHD, Rundblad is still waiting for ice time. If we acquire any D this season, it needs to be a LHD; Girardi doesn't work.

Z is a big piece of our team and our record is much better when he's in the lineup. But over the past two seasons, he's been in the lineup so infrequently with his range of injury concerns. In that case, I wouldn't mind adding a player like Girardi.

From your list, I like Jagr, Callahan, Moulson, and maybe Hudler. I like Hartnell, but hate his contract. Skinner will be too costly.

Moneyballing with our roster a bit, how do you guys feel on these proposals? Combinations of picks and Portland guys like Miele/Lessio/Brown, etc. can be added to either deal.

To Phx - Dan Girardi (3.325 cap, 3.400 salary)
To NYR - Rundblad (0.785, 0.700), Klesla (2.975, 2.975)

To Phx - Matt Moulson (3.133 cap, 3.900 salary)
To Buf - 2014 Conditional* 1st, Stone (1.150, 0.800), Moss (2.100, 2.100)

A condition on the 1st could be that if Moulson re-signs with Phoenix, then Buffalo gets the 2014 1st. If he doesn't, they get Phoenix's 2014 2nd instead.

These moves would put our cap to about 62.4 and budget to 57.6.

Even if we moved out those 3 defensemen, we'd still be left 9 deep:

LHD - OEL, Yandle, Schlemko, Gormley, Summers
RHD - Z, Morris, Murphy, Girardi

...Or am I way off?

 

[rt]

With Gormley and Summers in the AHL and Schlemko as the 7th. Works for me. One of those RHD would have to play the left side, though. We'd have to add more for Girardi, though. I wouldn't want to add more. He's a rental, too.

 

[Mosby]

One other footnote on Girardi: He signed with NYR as an undrafted free agent in 2006. GMDM was the assistant GM in New York at that time, so Girardi was quite possibly his guy (like Korpikoski). That could further support the Yotes' rumored interest in Girardi.

 

[rt]

Your not going to get a top 6 forward, .5 ppg this year and pay him 1.75 mil for 2 years, and get him for a 5th round pick. That is totally unrealistic. Upshall's last major injury happened away from the rink and he takes much better care of himself these days. Doan, Verby, Hanzel, DMO, Klesla and Z, all miss plenty of time every year, at least the last few years. Do we not want any of them because they are injury prone?

Past the injury issue, which I think is a non-factor, do we want Upshall, can he help? Outside of this year, last time he was healthy and played well was for the Coyotes. Keep in mind the crappy team he is on and his solid +/- stat. Think DMO-Z-Verby. Would I rather have Skinner or ROR, yes. We don't have the budget for that type of player and they would likely want a core piece back. A trade at the dead line is going to be an Upshall type player, might as well be him, we know what we are getting...

How in the world is he a top six player? He's a 26pt a season player

Takes better care of himself "these days"? When do "these days" start?

He's already missed 14% of his team's games this season. 31% over the last seven seasons.

Also, don't try to lump him in with Doan and Vrbata in games played and points per season. It's ridiculous. Just use google and a desk top calculator.

 

[Mosby]

With Gormley and Summers in the AHL and Schlemko as the 7th.

This. It also clears a path for Gormley next season. I think Maloney's comment of "Gormley has been our best player in the AHL" was quite telling. He's going to find him a space on the left side, David Schlemko be damned. I'll make a stretch here and assume we 1. acquire Girardi and 2. re-sign him, where the Top 6 next season is:

OEL - Michalek
Yandle - Murphy
Gormley - Girardi
7/8 - Schlemko, Summers

You'd have to give Morris' money to Girardi, but it works. There are also enough vets there that if Murphy, Gormley or even OEL regress, it's still a relatively solid core.

 

[letowskie]

Z is a big piece of our team and our record is much better when he's in the lineup. But over the past two seasons, he's been in the lineup so infrequently with his range of injury concerns. In that case, I wouldn't mind adding a player like Girardi.

From your list, I like Jagr, Callahan, Moulson, and maybe Hudler. I like Hartnell, but hate his contract. Skinner will be too costly.

Moneyballing with our roster a bit, how do you guys feel on these proposals? Combinations of picks and Portland guys like Miele/Lessio/Brown, etc. can be added to either deal.

To Phx - Dan Girardi (3.325 cap, 3.400 salary)
To NYR - Rundblad (0.785, 0.700), Klesla (2.975, 2.975)

To Phx - Matt Moulson (3.133 cap, 3.900 salary)
To Buf - 2014 Conditional* 1st, Stone (1.150, 0.800), Moss (2.100, 2.100)

A condition on the 1st could be that if Moulson re-signs with Phoenix, then Buffalo gets the 2014 1st. If he doesn't, they get Phoenix's 2014 2nd instead.

These moves would put our cap to about 62.4 and budget to 57.6.

Even if we moved out those 3 defensemen, we'd still be left 9 deep:

LHD - OEL, Yandle, Schlemko, Gormley, Summers
RHD - Z, Morris, Murphy, Girardi

...Or am I way off?

I can see this happen if either Z or DMo is in the process of being moved (possibly Stone, although Girardi replacing stone would be a pretty big overkill). If we are giving up anything like Rundblad for him, then I'd like to think that we are resigning him, so we would not be resigning DMo at least.

The scenario you outlined makes some sense. A right side of Girardi, Z (maybe out), DMo, Murphy would be one of the best RHD in the league. It would make our D even more formidable than previous years (which was no slouch); but doesn't really solve our scoring and puck possession depth. I think an acquisition of a wing is pretty much a must if we are serious about this year.

But it's still problematic because we cannot resign both Girardi and Moulson, and certainly wouldn't be able to ink DMo if that's the case. It's still not good asset management. I think it would be better managed, if we acquire one player that we can resign with considerable cost of assets (a winger is definitely higher priority); and another rental at much lower cost (probably not someone the ilk of Girardi). I also have doubt that Rundblad + a salary dump is going to be able to out-bid a lot of other teams at the top of the standings bidding for him (a lot of them will offer 1st + good prospect, I'm sure; guys like TBL, Kings, Avs, etc).

I say that if we can acquire him cheaply, then great; but I don't anticipate that to be the case this year. But we should not make that acquisition at the expense of being able to solidify our wings, which is by far our greatest weakness, or at the expense of spending considerable assets to acquire unsignable players come this summer.

 

[cobra427]

How in the world is he a top six player? He's a 26pt a season player

Takes better care of himself "these days"? When do "these days" start?

He's already missed 14% of his team's games this season. 31% over the last seven seasons.

Also, don't try to lump him in with Doan and Vrbata in games played and points per season. It's ridiculous. Just use google and a desk top calculator.

Use your calculator for this year, it's not a 26 point pace...70+ games is fine with me, you need something other then the injury argument, plenty of missed games for coyote players, see last post..FYI he plays as much PK as Hanzel and PP as Bods, just saying...Besides all of that, you should watch him play this year, I think you might like what you see, rather then looking at stats alone. I think we just disagree, but we will see what DM decides, he knows best...

 

[Mosby]

But it's still problematic because we cannot resign both Girardi and Moulson, and certainly wouldn't be able to ink DMo if that's the case.

Good point. With the changes I had proposed above (moving Stone, Klesla, Rundblad, and Moss), we'd have about $48M under contract for next season. Assuming a $60M budget, that leaves $12M to re-sign Vrbata, Moulson, and Girardi/Morris.

Four other spots - Biz, Szwarz, Summers, and Greiss - are either UFAs or RFAs and will require new contracts. We can assume virtually the same deals for each, with a bit of bump to Greiss ($750k to $900k-$1M).

That leaves roughly $9M to sign the initial 3. Considering his play so far this season, we can probably get Vrby in at the low 4s, but you're right, then things get tight for another big salary winger and big salary D.

 

[ck26]

Four other spots - Biz, Szwarz, Summers, and Greiss - are either UFAs or RFAs and will require new contracts. We can assume virtually the same deals for each, with a bit of bump to Greiss ($750k to $900k-$1M).

I apologize for coming into this thread and sniping for the third time today, but "a bit of a bump to Greiss" probably isn't going to keep him. The "Phoenix goalies are system goalies" thing echoes on inside the walls of hf, but nobody who has watched us this year can possibly think Greiss is a product of our stout defense. I think he's a starter or a 50-50 platoon guy next year and right now I'd give it about a 1/5 chance of being in Glendale.

- Edmonton's goalie situation is laughable and Dubnyk and Brzy are UFA.
- Florida is high on the kid Markstrom, but Tim Thomas is done and both he and Clemmenson are UFA.
- Nabokov is old and broken down in NYI, and Poulin isn't their long-term answer.
- Pavelec has a few more years in Winnipeg, but he's been far from lights-out for them.
- Calgary's goalie situation isn't awful but both Ramo and Barra are worse than Greiss.
- Miller may move from Buffalo, which fills someone else's hole and creates one.

And I'm probably forgetting a couple. GMDM worked some magic getting him for less than LaBarbara this year, but I'd be floored if it happened again with Greiss next year.

 

[Mosby]

If Greiss finishes the season with 20 or fewer games played (his current pace), I'm hopefully he remains somewhat of an unknown commodity. Are teams going to bank high on a goalie who hasn't had the starter workload before?

However, a quick scan of this summer's free agent goalies shows a very uninspiring list - Greiss is somewhere in the top 10, and probably in a group of three or four goalies in terms of price tag and ability (such as Khudobin, Peters, Scrivens, etc.)

Some good news - Greiss gets the start tomorrow vs. Calgary.

 

[Kaibur]

I apologize for coming into this thread and sniping for the third time today, but "a bit of a bump to Greiss" probably isn't going to keep him. The "Phoenix goalies are system goalies" thing echoes on inside the walls of hf, but nobody who has watched us this year can possibly think Greiss is a product of our stout defense. I think he's a starter or a 50-50 platoon guy next year and right now I'd give it about a 1/5 chance of being in Glendale.

- Edmonton's goalie situation is laughable and Dubnyk and Brzy are UFA.
- Florida is high on the kid Markstrom, but Tim Thomas is done and both he and Clemmenson are UFA.
- Nabokov is old and broken down in NYI, and Poulin isn't their long-term answer.
- Pavelec has a few more years in Winnipeg, but he's been far from lights-out for them.
- Calgary's goalie situation isn't awful but both Ramo and Barra are worse than Greiss.
- Miller may move from Buffalo, which fills someone else's hole and creates one.

And I'm probably forgetting a couple. GMDM worked some magic getting him for less than LaBarbara this year, but I'd be floored if it happened again with Greiss next year.

Carolina looks like they have three goalies and Khudobin & Peters are UFA.

Halak & Elliot are both UFA. Do you think St. Louis will sign both for big money?

Ben Scrivens or Martin Jones as backup in LA? Scrivens is UFA.

Florida fans seem content to go with (a fully ready) Tim Thomas as a platoon partner for Markstrom.

Bryz hasn't been terrible on a terrible team. I could see the Isles replacing Nabokov with Bryz, or something like that.

Al Montoya's been very good for Winnipeg this year. He's UFA and might be looking to finally land a starting role.

Is Hiller done in Anaheim? Where will Ryan Miller land?

There are so many goalies on the open market next year and so few starting spots. Maybe Greiss has a really good agent. But I think he'll be hard pressed to land a starting job easily next season.

 

[Mosby]

More speculation from 4th Period. A pretty good gauge for what we'd have to give up for Girardi:

http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/ana140107.html

Ducks, Rangers talking Girardi deal

Rangers GM Glen Sather has not yet decided if he plans on moving Girardi, who is in the final year of his contract and can become an unrestricted free agent July 1.

If Girardi is moved, the Rangers want a young defenseman and a young forward as part of a package in return.

It's unclear who the Ducks are willing to part with, but it's believed the Rangers would be looking at least for defenseman Sami Vatanen with one of forwards Kyle Palmieri, Patrick Maroon and Rickard Rakell, drafted 30th overall in 2011.

So our comparable is Rundblad and one of the Portland forwards.

 

[cobra427]

More speculation from 4th Period. A pretty good gauge for what we'd have to give up for Girardi:

http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/ana140107.html



So our comparable is Rundblad and one of the Portland forwards.

If the Ducks make it to the finals, good trade for them. If they don't, way too much to give up. Is Girardi really that big of a difference maker? I doubt it. This rarely works for the acquiring team....Dm would never pay that for a rental...

 

[ck26]

Carolina looks like they have three goalies and Khudobin & Peters are UFA.
Halak & Elliot are both UFA. Do you think St. Louis will sign both for big money?
Ben Scrivens or Martin Jones as backup in LA? Scrivens is UFA.
Florida fans seem content to go with (a fully ready) Tim Thomas as a platoon partner for Markstrom.
Bryz hasn't been terrible on a terrible team. I could see the Isles replacing Nabokov with Bryz, or something like that.
Al Montoya's been very good for Winnipeg this year. He's UFA and might be looking to finally land a starting role.
Is Hiller done in Anaheim? Where will Ryan Miller land?
There are so many goalies on the open market next year and so few starting spots. Maybe Greiss has a really good agent. But I think he'll be hard pressed to land a starting job easily next season.

Valid about STL; skipped over them entirely and didn't realize both were UFA.

Thomas will be 40 this summer, so good luck to FLA with that. Injured 40 year old + unproven 23 year old often doesn't end well.

I'll believe that an NHL team will give the starting reins to Bryz in the summer only when it happens (and even then I'll have to rub my eyes a few times, put down my beer, get up from the computer, go for a walk and then come back later to see if it's still true hahaha). Of course, you're talking about the Islanders, so all bets are off hahaha.

A Greiss/Montoya platoon was discussed here last summer (before GMDM gave Smith his money) and I liked the idea then; I'd like it this summer if I were a GM in EDM or NYI. Add Scrivens to that list too: wouldn't be surprised to see a GM sign any of the three to be a starter/platoon/backup guy.

BUF doesn't have a lights-out backup (Enroth?), so there should be a job there when Miller moves, right? Is ANA so sold on Andersen that Hiller is sure to leave?

Maybe the reason Tipp is playing so little of Greiss is that the less he plays, the less attractive he'll be next summer and the more likely I'll be totally wrong about him ...

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

I like the current roster but everybody needs to do a little bit more so that we concede less goals.

So for me: Every player on the roster doing a bit more > trading for one player like Girardi (a good player don't get me wrong) at this point.

For Moulson, it is a bit different; I like the player and I believe that he could impact the season SHOULD we are still in contention to make the playoffs in a couple of weeks time.

But right now, no trades for me; lets see what the return of Doan brings in the work ethics of this squad first.

 

[letowskie]

If the Ducks make it to the finals, good trade for them. If they don't, way too much to give up. Is Girardi really that big of a difference maker? I doubt it. This rarely works for the acquiring team....Dm would never pay that for a rental...

Right;

Rentals should only be done generally when you are one of the following (I don't think our situation fits any of the following):

• one or two players away from becoming a cup-favorite
• have a very good chance of retaining that player, knowing that player is a good long term fit in terms of playing style and salary demands
• have so much futures assets that you would not mind moving some of them for short term help

And they should always be done for positions of players that are most in need for the team. A team like ours should be extra careful in offering cost-controlled assets for short-term relief; we cannot afford to just trade a Gormley or Rundblad for someone that may or may not help us. If we were to deal someone that has good potential and that can contribute in the next few years before they reach UFA years (mostly cost controlled young players), we better be darned sure that the returned player is EXACTLY what we need.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Just an FYI for everyone that it looks like Lessio has 'turned' the corner for the Pirates. He's now the 2nd leading scorer behind Miele and here's his stats by 10 game stretches.

Games Points
1-10 6pts
11-20 3pts
21-27 9pts

so 9pts in his last 7 games with 6 goals and 3 assists

It's nice to see a prospect start performing well given how we've got a bunch of pluggers who will never make the show ala Martinook, Hextall, Werek, etc...

 

[rt]

Boyd Gordon (30% off), Mitch Moroz, Kale Kessy, and 3rd

For

Jeff Halpern, David Moss, David Rundblad, and a 2nd

Eight asset trades happen all of the time, right? Haha

 

[ck26]

Boyd Gordon (30% off), Mitch Moroz, Kale Kessy, and 3rd

For

Jeff Halpern, David Moss, David Rundblad, and a 2nd

If we hadn't drafted Kale Kessy, would you know who he is? What does he do that Bissonnette doesn't do? Bissonnette doesn't play, why would Kessy?

Discount Gordon for Moss and Halpern is cool.

Mitch Moroz is interesting, but he's an underwhelming return for Kyle Turris.

 

[rt]

If we hadn't drafted Kale Kessy, would you know who he is? What does he do that Bissonnette doesn't do? Bissonnette doesn't play, why would Kessy?

Discount Gordon for Moss and Halpern is cool.

Mitch Moroz is interesting, but he's an underwhelming return for Kyle Turris.

If we hadn't drafted Kessy I wouldn't have bothered to watch him in juniors. If I hadn't have bothered to watch him in juniors, I wouldn't have fallen in love with what a mongoloid, psychopath, cave man bad ass son of a ***** he is. It's great. He's great.

We've also got Vermette for Turris. Anyway, I was shocked we got more than a 2nd for Turris given the situation. Now it looks like we didn't get much more than a 2nd for Turris after all. I don't think Rundblad has much trade value, and I don't think he has much value to us. He may be a valuable player for an NHL team in the near future. I don't think anyone will give up much for him now though. I don't think he will be that valuable player for us. Sucks to get a mediocre return for a 3rd overall pick, but we are already there. That **** has already happened. The mediocre has already been returned.

It's okay though. We also got zilch for a fifth overall (Wheeler) and an 8th overall (Mueller). It's like a tradition. Like I said, at least Vermette doesn't suck.

 

[ck26]

I was half-kidding about Turris ... obviously you don't evaluate transactions that way, but I still don't see that appeal of trading for a goon. Some decent flashes out of Biz the last few games, and I'd always rather have a useful player who can fight than a heavyweight who can't. Big Georgs Laraque was my favorite ever because he could play a TON too, he wasn't just a primate / Mongoloid / other seemingly-racist-but-for-some-reason-acceptable term.

 

[RemoAZ]

Well if guys like Samuelsson and Domi wind up ******** the bed here and become productive players for another team, somebody needs to get fired. With Turris and Mueller there was transition in management and coaching. As for Wheeler, you'd hope somebody would have realized the kid didn't want to be here before he got drafted. But with all that behind us, there's no question as to what the system is and who we have developing the players now. If we aren't drafting guys the coach will develop and play, somebody needs to go. We can't keep nuking high offensive picks and expect to become a consistent contender.

 

[ck26]

I was half-kidding about Turris ... obviously you don't evaluate transactions that way, but I still don't see that appeal of trading for a goon. Some decent flashes out of Biz the last few games, and I'd always rather have a useful player who can fight than a heavyweight who can't. Big Georgs Laraque was my favorite ever because he could play a TON too, he wasn't just a primate / Mongoloid / other seemingly-racist-but-for-some-reason-acceptable term.

We need an agitator/protector/fighter, not just a guy that plays once every 5 games to participate in a planned fight and play 5 minutes. I want a guy that will stick up for our stars and guys that don't fight and someone that pisses the other team off all the time. I want a Carcillo when he was here. Other teams hated him and he got under their skin. He'd go with anyone and could play on a legitimate line. Not sure what's happened to him in recent years other than injuries but when he was here, he was perfect for that role.

I was half-kidding about Turris ... obviously you don't evaluate transactions that way, but I still don't see that appeal of trading for a goon. Some decent flashes out of Biz the last few games, and I'd always rather have a useful player who can fight than a heavyweight who can't. Big Georgs Laraque was my favorite ever because he could play a TON too, he wasn't just a primate / Mongoloid / other seemingly-racist-but-for-some-reason-acceptable term.

Kessy is several years away. He's also precisely the player you are talking about. He's not a heavyweight, just a particularly ferocious fighter for his weight class. He can also play pretty well. Has a strong physical game. Is upside is half way between Biz and Torres. It's doubtful he reaches that level, but that's just because he's a prospect. They rarely develop just exactly as you hope.

Somebody said in the Edmonton - Phoenix trade thread that your team isn't going to re-sign David Moss, is that true and if it is could he be traded before trade deadline? I would love to have him in Edmonton.

Somebody said in the Edmonton - Phoenix trade thread that your team isn't going to re-sign David Moss, is that true and if it is could he be traded before trade deadline? I would love to have him in Edmonton.

I doubt he'll be re-signed, especially since Boedkers moved to the right side, but who knows. He's got a partial no trade clause, I don't think he'd waive to go to Edmonton at this point.

Szwarz has done OK on the PK and Max Domi figures to grab a top 6 winger spot next year, so we're looking at Doan/Vrbata/Boedker/Domi/Korpikoski next year, removing the need / room for the luxury of a $2m grinder.

That said, whether he plans to stay or not, or whether we plan to offer again or not, if we're in the playoff picture, I don't want to move him at the deadline. Offloading assets before the playoffs sends the wrong message to the team.

Moving Klesla or even Morris (which would "force" Schlemko or Stone into the lineup) sounds much more appealing than moving Moss and "forcing" Szwarz or Chipchura into the top 9 forward spots.

This is all academic though, because there's no way EDM doesn't make it onto a guy's 7 team no-trade list hahaha

 

[RR]

Continue here:

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