Depends on the player, IMO. It's always a convergence of talent, timing, coaching and most importantly determination. Those are things that are constant no matter where you come from.
Sam Calabrese is 3 years older than Fogarty.
His BCHL season was not disappointing at all.
Your acting like he was put into this world of offensive opportunities his first year at ND, when in fact, if you watched his team, you'd see his role. When Lucia was out early he was playing Wing and scored a few points, had a two point game vs N Michigan. Then Lucia came back into the lineup 9 games into the season and Fogarty was put back at Center on the teams 4th line with another Freshman in DiPauli and Soph euro import Schneider. And at the end of the year they gained chemistry and were one of the teams best lines even strength.
His BCHL season was certainly disappointing. In fact, you're the first person I know to be seriously happy with it. If anything, the only thing debatable is what degree of disappointment the season actually was. He was very, very streaky in the BCHL (both points-wise and play-wise). Lucia had a better season than him and, funnily enough, has been the better college player as well. And, frankly, I'm not all that high on Lucia as a pro prospect either.
I also love how you ever-so-condescendingly assume I didn't watch him play at ND. I certainly did. A number of times. And, unfortunately, I came away very unimpressed. He does not have the same upside I saw in him when he was in high school (where I saw him play as well).
And Sam Calabrese is ****ing terrible and far from an offensive d-man. Hence my point of how laughable it is that he doubled Fogarty's output and you not being a bit alarmed by that.
I don't get how you can possibly claim that he has not been very underwhelming so far as a prospect and still see top-six upside in him. You are obviously looking at the kid with some seriously rosey glasses.
If anyone on here was going to pimp the kid, it'd be me. I was super, super high on him when we drafted him. Probably the highest of anyone on here since I was familiar with his HS background. He looks more and more like one of my misses, however. I will be the first one to eat crow if he turns it around. I sincerely hope he does. Unlike some around here, I'd rather be wrong than right in a case like this.