2012-13 Qualitative +/- Ratings

[tarheelhockey]

Game 36 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
4/4/2013
5-0 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 0:28 Purcell (Carle)
-1 Bowman - While this one was close to being another error on Ellis, there were enough defensive gaffes here to exacerbate the soft rebound. First and foremost was this performance by Bowman -- overplaying the center lane, then getting beaten along the boards, then turning the puck over right up the middle of the ice.
-1 Dwyer - Makes much the same mistake as Bowman, overplaying the strong side to the point of being way out of position on the turnover.
-1 Harrison - If he gets a body or even a stick on the net-crashing Purcell, the rebound might not come back to bite the Canes.

2nd 15:55 Pyatt (Killorn, Brewer)
-1 Nash - Beaten cleanly on the d-zone faceoff, then fails to tie up Pyatt's stick on the tip-in.

2nd 19:17 Aulie (Stamkos, St. Louis)
Goaltender Error - Ellis - Traffic or not, an NHL goalie has to stop 50-foot floaters.

3rd 2:24 St. Louis (Pouliot, Carle)
-1 Corvo - Characteristically trying to play the game reactively instead of thinking about what he's doing.
-1 Harrison - Characteristically overthinking the situation instead of just making the obvious play.
^ This is a defensive pairing made in hell.

3rd 7:30 Pouliot (Stamkos, St. Louis)
-1 Gleason - Another embarrassing effort in a night full of them. Gets torched on a simple 2-on-2 crossover, then takes out his own goalie and flops around trying to recover.
-1 Eric Staal - Again, embarrassing. He gets absolutely outmuscled in the corner by St. Louis of all people.
-1 Skinner - And that's why you don't turn your back on the puck in the defensive zone. Jeebus.

Totals
Error - Ellis
-1 Bowman
-1 Corvo
-1 Dwyer
-1 Gleason
-1 Nash
-1 Skinner
-1 Eric Staal
-2 Harrison

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 37 vs New York Rangers
4/6/2013
4-1 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

3rd 9:27 Dalpe (Skinner, Eric Staal)
+1 Skinner - Nicely done at both ends of the ice, causing the turnover and then converting the opportunity.
+1 Eric Staal - It's a subtle thing, but how smart was it for him to pull up at the high half-boards instead of rushing the net? He really opened up the low passing lanes by making the defenseman pull up short.
+1 Dalpe - Solid finish.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 2:31 Callahan (Nash, Stepan)
Goaltender Error - Ellis - That's just a ridiculous thing for an emergency backup goaltender to attempt, let alone how badly he botched it.

Totals
+1 Dalpe
+1 Skinner
+1 Eric Staal
Error - Ellis

 

[Joe McGrath]

Game 37 vs New York Rangers
4/6/2013
4-1 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

3rd 9:27 Dalpe (Skinner, Eric Staal)
+1 Skinner - Nicely done at both ends of the ice, causing the turnover and then converting the opportunity.
+1 Eric Staal - It's a subtle thing, but how smart was it for him to pull up at the high half-boards instead of rushing the net? He really opened up the low passing lanes by making the defenseman pull up short.
+1 Dalpe - Solid finish.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 2:31 Callahan (Nash, Stepan)
Goaltender Error - Peters - That's just a ridiculous thing for an emergency backup goaltender to attempt, let alone how badly he botched it.

Totals
+1 Dalpe
+1 Skinner
+1 Eric Staal
Error - Peters

The goalie error was Ellis. I know this because I was there and I watched Muller not pull him right then and there and I couldn't decide which of the two of them was dumber. I'd love to talk about the first goal with 3 guys behind the net on the PK with 1 Ranger but that's not really why this thread exists.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

While Ellis is partially to blame for that goal, the first two goals against were just a complete lack of communication for the people on the ice.

Everyone chased after the puck on the PK, leaving Stephan (I believe) all alone in front. Someone's got to say "I've got it" and push a defender back in front of the net.

Likewise, Corvo gave no warning to Ellis that any Ranger was coming his way. It's extremely difficult (close to impossible) to turn your head in goalie gear to see behind you. So Corvo had to warn Ellis ("Pressure!") he had Nash behind him. He didn't.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 38 @ Boston Bruins
4/8/2013
6-1 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

3rd 10:03 Dwyer (Bellemore, Tlusty)
+1 Tlusty - This goal happens because Tlusty effectively removes 3 Bruins from the play while winning the puck to his teammate.
+1 Dwyer - Nice job in front of the net.
+1 Bellemore - This is a weak-ish plus, but it would have been easy for him to turn the puck over there. Getting it on net was the right play.

3rd 10:48 Bowman (Nash, Jordan Staal)
+1 Sanguinetti - He bailed Bowman out of a stupid defensive-zone pass, winning the puck ahead to start the rush.
+1 Nash - He's not the strongest guy, but he managed to take 3 Bruins to the net and create a favorable break.
+1 Bowman - Nice to see that kind of determination to score an ugly goal.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 3:51 Peverly (Seidenberg, Ference)
-1 Harrison - Pinched during a line change, which is always a bad idea, and in doing so he put both Bellemore and LaRose in a really awkward alignment for handling the rush.
-1 LaRose - Losing sight of the puck is one thing, but you can't afford to have a guy standing in front of the net and not tracking his man.

1st 7:58 Marchard (Campbell, Jagr)
-1 Gleason - Chasing the puck behind the net, undisciplined mistake.
-1 Brent - I'd say he had tunnel vision on the puck as well, except that he looked right at Marchand and still decided to turn his back and leave him undefended.

1st 17:20 Marchand (Jagr, Seidenberg)
-1 Gleason - That's the classic Gleason "fall down for no reason while the guy next to you scores" move. Also, that's an awfully easy wraparound on the side of the net he was supposed to have been covering.

2nd 3:57 Ference (Seidenberg, Campbell)
-1 Eric Staal - This little float-job behind the net left huge holes in the upper zone coverage, ultimately creating an unnecessarily easy shot for Seidenberg.
-1 McBain - Flat-out outmuscled in front of the net.

2nd 10:29 Caron (Peverley, Thornton)
I'm willing to forgive the group on this one. Everybody was in perfect position and the odd bounce off Harrison and Ellis created chaos. Jordan had a body on Caron but would have had to take a penalty to prevent the shot, and Ellis had little choice but to pitch forward.

3rd 16:56 Horton (Hamilton, Lucic)
-1 Bergeron - What the hell?
-1 Dwyer - He simply has to know better than to double-team a guy on the boards in that situation. If he simply lets Harrison take the puck carrier, he's in position to stop the passing sequence on the other side.
-1 Tlusty - Granted, that's a tough situation because he's being asked to replace a defenseman on the play. But still... use your common sense, Fats. Don't leave a guy standing all alone in front of the net so you can double-team a shot blocking opportunity from outside the circle.

Totals
+1 Bellemore
+1 Bowman
+1 Nash
+1 Sanguinetti
-1 Bergeron
-1 Brent
-1 Harrison
-1 LaRose
-1 McBain
-1 Eric Staal
-2 Gleason

 

[tarheelhockey]

Changed that goalie error to Ellis.

I agree that Corvo should have communicated pressure to Ellis, but who's to say he didn't?

 

[Joe McGrath]

While Ellis is partially to blame for that goal, the first two goals against were just a complete lack of communication for the people on the ice.

Everyone chased after the puck on the PK, leaving Stephan (I believe) all alone in front. Someone's got to say "I've got it" and push a defender back in front of the net.

Likewise, Corvo gave no warning to Ellis that any Ranger was coming his way. It's extremely difficult (close to impossible) to turn your head in goalie gear to see behind you. So Corvo had to warn Ellis ("Pressure!") he had Nash behind him. He didn't.

I haven't seen the video since that night but I got the impression Ellis knew full well what was coming but the puck didn't reach the trapezoid until Nash was right there.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Obviously, I'm not on the ice, so I can't say for sure, but from where I was sitting, Ellis looked completely unaware of who was behind him. And Corvo made no indication that Nash was there. The arena was pretty quiet at the time (since the Rangers had scored moments earlier) and I didn't hear any shouting on the ice.

 

[tarheelhockey]

So, I kinda let this project slip away when I ran into a bunch of time-consuming stuff in my personal life (job, home, etc). Gonna get back in the saddle and finish it now that we're in the dog days of summer and there's not much else happening anyway.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 39 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
4/9/2013
5-3 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

1st 15:33 Sanguinetti (E. Staal)
+1 Sanguinetti - Good example of taking some mustard off a shot to make it more dangerous.
+1 Eric Staal - Nice clean faceoff win right to his target.
+1 Tlusty - Once again doing the small things that lead to goals, he first put a body on Bennett to give Sangs a chance to shoot, then backed into the slot to put a screen on the goalie.

3rd 2:00 Nash (Ruutu, LaRose)
+1 Nash - Shaky defense by the Pens, but he deserves credit for going to the right spot.
+1 Ruutu - Fantastic puck pursuit that turned a faceoff loss into a scoring opportunity. This is the Ruutu that makes the Canes a better team.
+1 LaRose - Check out that little move behind the net on Sutter!


ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 5:38 Bortuzzo (Dupuis, Adams)
-1 Semin - He couldn't have made it much easier for Bortuzzo to tap that one in. A simple stick-lift would have killed the chance.
-1 Skinner - I don't know if he had tired legs or what, but he lost a puck race to Craig Adams, made a weak swipe and then coasted completely out of the play, and then got caught flat-footed in the corner. Ugly shift.

1st 13:49 Morrow (Jokinen, Dupuis)
-1 Faulk - This must have been a frustrating shift for him, watching his teammates tool around in the defensive zone and then getting embarrassed by Morrow.
-1 Gleason - There was really not a need to pursue the puck all the way to the point, with 2 forwards already up there. If he's going to do that, he has to be 100% sure of making the play.
-1 Nash - A large part of the problem on this shift was Nash trying to play up the ice like a winger, instead of covering his lane conservatively like a center. That turnover dies at the blue line if he isn't trying to make something out of nothing offensively.

3rd 9:49 Bennett (Adams, Iginla)
-1 Sanguinetti - This guy just does not have a sense for how to defend against a rush. He put McBain in a no-win situation here.

3rd 10:02 Malkin (Iginla)
-1 Semin - Sloppy play on both sides of the puck, first with the unnecessary turnover and then with an ill-advised poke check at the blue line.
-1 Faulk - If your choice is to step out on Beau Bennett or tie up Evgeni Malkin...

Totals
+1 LaRose
+1 Ruutu
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Gleason
-1 Skinner
-2 Faulk
-2 Semin

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 40 @ Washington Capitals
4/11/2013
3-1 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 10:46 Green (Beagle, Wolski)
-1 Skinner - Green is one of the few defensemen who can make that play reliably, but that's no excuse for playing him so sloppily.

Totals
-1 Skinner

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 41 vs Boston Bruins
4/13/2013
4-2 Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 14:04 Tlusty (Eric Staal, Gleason)
+1 Gleason - It's a deceptively simple play, but Gleason passed up the opportunity for a screened shot and make a perfectly timed pass around the boards to Staal instead. Really a nice decision and well executed pass.
+1 Eric Staal - The chemistry he has with Tlusty really is remarkable. Almost a perfect no-look pass on the backhand.
+1 Tlusty - Doing his usual thing, just being in the right place and doing the right thing.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 6:07 Lucic (Bartkowski, Jagr)
-1 Faulk - Simply got overwhelmed in front of the net by a bigger player.

2nd 17:57 Seguin (Ference)
-1 Semin - Ugh, that turnover.

Totals
+1 Gleason
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Faulk
-1 Semin

 

[tarheelhockey]

Here are the total rankings with 7 games remaining:

This is the master list of total +/- ratings.

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Drayson Bowman | 6 | 2 | +4 | -
Zach Boychuk | - | - | 0 | -
Tim Brent | 2 | 2 | 0 | -
Zac Dalpe | 2 | - | +2 | -
Patrick Dwyer | 14 | 5 | +9 | +1
Dan Ellis | 1 | x | +1 | -
Adam Hall | - | 2 | -2 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 4 | 5 | -1 | -
Chad LaRose | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Riley Nash | 11 | 7 | +4 | -
Andreas Nodl | 1 | - | +1 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 2 | - | +2 | -
Alex Semin | 22 | 4 | +18 | -
Jeff Skinner | 14 | 9 | +5 | -
Eric Staal | 30 | 10 | +20 | -
Jordan Staal | 13 | 6 | +7 | -
Jiri Tlusty | 23 | 1 | +22 | -
Tim Wallace | 2 | 1 | +1 | -

Defensemen | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin of Error
Brett Bellemore | 2 | - | +2 | -
Marc-Andre Bergeron | - | 1 | -1 | -
Joe Corvo | 6 | 7 | -1 | +1
Justin Faulk | 5 | 11 | -6 | -
Tim Gleason | 7 | 10 | -3 | -1, +1
Jay Harrison | 8 | 10 | -2 | -
Michal Jordan | - | 2 | -2 | -
Jamie McBain | 5 | 7 | -2 | -
Ryan Murphy | - | 1 | -1 | -
Joni Pitkanen | 4 | 7 | -3 | -
Bobby Sanguinetti | 5 | 15 | -10 | -

Goaltender Errors

Player | Errors
Cam Ward | 6
Dan Ellis | 5

Noteworthy that Semin only had 1 minus in the first 38 games of the season, then had 3 minuses in the following 3 games.

 

[Lucky Lindy]

Noteworthy that Semin only had 1 minus in the first 38 games of the season, then had 3 minuses in the following 3 games.

Lazy russian, cancer.

 

[What the Faulk]

Doesn't that correspond to about when he started missing time with injury?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Doesn't that correspond to about when he started missing time with injury?

Yes it does. Two of those minuses have to do with uncharacteristic turnovers while trying to pass in the neutral zone. I'm guessing it had to do with his wrist(?) injury.

 

[rocky7]

by this time there was a noticable change. as much as they all, and Muller tried to keep spirits, etc. up, you could see it was over. that jump and speed and intensity and smiles - all gone. injury and lost cause i guess. no fun anymore and just wanted it to be over.

they know whatever injuries there are i suppose but i don't like to see guys playing through injuries if they don't have to.

all and all it was a good season really. it revealed strengths and weaknesses pretty plainly. how they all respond is what's important now.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

So, I kinda let this project slip away when I ran into a bunch of time-consuming stuff in my personal life (job, home, etc). anyway.

Unacceptable

 

[tarheelhockey]

Unacceptable

I know, this is almost as bad as the time I finished with 674 goals.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 42 @ Ottawa Senators
4/16/2013
3-2 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd Faulk (Eric Staal)
+1 Faulk - Great tenacious effort all throughout his shift, he deserved a goal here.
+1 Eric Staal - Did a good job using his size and strength to create chaos and get the defense chasing the puck.
+1 Ruutu - The third element in the cycle, he kept the slot busy and the goalie distracted.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 17:22 Zibanejad (Conacher, Gonchar)
-1 Corvo - Characteristically overplaying the neutral zone, making it far too easy for Conacher to get entry with speed. Not to mention that it would have been easy for him to put a body on Conacher behind the net and shut the play down.
-1 Jordan Staal - It's one thing to miss that poke check in the neutral zone, but unacceptable to coast behind Wiercioch while he glides 80 feet right down the slot on a rush. Staal's laziness on this play put Ruutu in a position to have to cover his man at the last second, which is how Zibanejad ended up wide-open. It's not shown in the recap above, but you can see it clearly here.

2nd 6:00 Michalek (Wiercioch, Gonchar)
This was a world-class toe drag and shot by Michalek. I'm not inclined to give Peters an error on this, and I don't see a defender doing anything particularly wrong. Just a goal that can be chalked up to skill.

2nd 12:12 Neil (Latendresse)
-1 McBain - This play was pretty much a microcosm of his season.
-1 Corvo - How does a guy get to the NHL as a defenseman and still think THAT is how you defend a 2-on-1?

Totals
+1 Faulk
+1 Ruutu
+1 Eric Staal
-1 McBain
-1 Jordan Staal
-2 Corvo

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 43 @ Winnipeg Jets
4/18/2013
4-3 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 10:38 Ruutu (Faulk, Gleason)
+1 Ruutu - It's nice to see he still has this kind of finish and line chemistry in him.
+1 Faulk - Nice little show of hockey sense on that pass.
+1 Gleason - It's a small thing, but that little pump fake and smooth pass to Faulk really set up the rest of the sequence.
+1 Jordan Staal - His power move down low took out Clitsome's stick, which is what gave Ruutu so much space in front.

2nd 12:22 Ruutu (Bergeron, Jordan Staal)
+1 Ruutu - He came awfully close to scoring twice on this sequence, and did a great job of staying in Pavelec's face.
+1 Bergeron - Pretty much doing the one thing he's paid to do, put the puck hard on net.
+1 Jordan Staal - Set up Bergeron's shot nicely and pulled Byfuglien past the top of the circle in the process.
+1 Corvo - It's hard to see on the replay, but this play was awfully close to being a turnover. He did well just to get the puck down low on the backhand, and almost created a different goal for Ruutu.

3rd 18:48 Semin (Tlusty, Jordan Staal)
edit: I'm going to make a slight rule change here and take this goal out of the equation since it was an extra-man situation. I hadn't thought about this when making the original rules, but the principle of the project is to measure 5-on-5 play. This goal wouldn't be counted for the same reason that we don't count ENG and the goals scored a second or two after the end of a PP.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 12:13 Bogosian (Little, Ladd)
Goaltender Error - Peters - An NHL goalie has to stop a little flub shot like that.

3rd 8:40 Wheeler (Little, Ladd)
-1 McBain - I don't know what was worse, his losing Wheeler on that pinch or Sangs losing Wheeler without pinching.
-1 Sanguinetti - Nothing like having a defenseman who starts off half-a-zone ahead of the forward and ends up half-a-zone behind him.

OT 1:23 Byfuglien (Ladd, Wheeler)
-1 Corvo - Having him back on a 2-on-1 is like having nobody back on a 2-on-0.
-1 Eric Staal - I guess this is the risk you run when you play 3 forwards in overtime, but it was his failed pinch that led to the goal. Besides, I have a hard time with the idea that Byfuglien is that much faster than Eric Staal that Staal should be a mile behind him and coasting during an OT rush.

Totals
+2 Jordan Staal
+2 Ruutu
+1 Bergeron
+1 Faulk
+1 Gleason
-1 McBain
-1 Sanguinetti
-1 Eric Staal

 

[rocky7]

this was a good project. you have an eye for the subtlties. hope you have the time to carry it on this season.

 

[tarheelhockey]

this was a good project. you have an eye for the subtlties. hope you have the time to carry it on this season.

Thanks. The plan is to keep it going this season. Hopefully after 3 years the longer-term numbers will start to tell a story.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Thanks. The plan is to keep it going this season. Hopefully after 3 years the longer-term numbers will start to tell a story.

The biggest story the numbers tell, to me, is that we should replace all of our defensemen with forwards.

--hank

 

[tarheelhockey]

The biggest story the numbers tell, to me, is that we should replace all of our defensemen with forwards.

--hank

Heh, half our defensemen last year WERE forwards... in their own minds anyway...

In seriousness, it goes without saying that the numbers shouldn't be used for cross-positional comparisons. A forward would have to be god-awful to have an overall minus, and a defenseman would have to be Bobby Orr to have an overall plus. The idea is to illustrate their individual impact in relation to the rest of the team. Eventually I need to work in TOI and QualComp to get a more fully-developed picture.