2012-13 Qualitative +/- Ratings

[geehaad]

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 08:50 Cody Hodgson (Jordan Leopold, Thomas Vanek)
-1 Gleason - In his defense, he was the victim of an uncalled pick; but he got caught scrambling off the boards and then lost his man in front, which as a whole is not a passable effort.

Wondering: do you ever ask yourself "what should they have done instead?" when you render judgment? What would you have Gleason do differently? Why not give Faulk a minus for driving his man into Gleason, thus picking him off the play?

2nd 10:39 Jason Pominville (Christian Ehrhoff, Alexander Sulzer)
-1 Dwyer - Not sure what he was doing there, if he lost an edge or disastrously mis-evaluated that pass, but it looked goofy and gave Ehrhoff the opportunity to make a world-class pass.

Dwyer was clearly attempting to block Sulzer's shot. You're scaring me...do you really not recognize this as a shot-block attempt? And what else would you have Dwyer do there...allow Sulzer to tee it up?

3rd 06:06 Jason Pominville (Thomas Vanek, Robyn Regehr)
-1 Faulk - The old adage "don't get caught standing still" applies. Faulk did a lot of watching after the puck was turned over.
-1 Dwyer - His reckless rush up the sideboards, to the exact spot where Staal was already going, caused him to overshoot the puck and opened up a lot of empty ice for the Sabres to work with.

You ding one guy for moving after the puck (to the area that he is responsible for, no less) and in the same breath ding a guy for *not* moving somewhere. Again, what would you have Faulk and Dwyer do differently...skate out into the slot area? Skate backwards? Do a triple salchow?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Wondering: do you ever ask yourself "what should they have done instead?" when you render judgment? What would you have Gleason do differently? Why not give Faulk a minus for driving his man into Gleason, thus picking him off the play?

Giving Faulk a minus there is an interesting thought, hadn't really considered it.

I realize it was a tough play for Gleason, and said so in the previous post. If it had ONLY been about getting picked off the play, I wouldn't have marked it against him. But the key to the entire sequence is his taking a bad angle on Hodgson, which is what I meant by referring to his defensive effort on that play "as a whole".

Gleason plays down the boards rather than staying inside of his man:

Causing Hodgson to come out of the corner with a step on Gleason. That is what causes Skinner to abandon his assignment and cover the slot:

To answer the "what should he have done?" question, Gleason could have recognized that he wouldn't be the first guy to the loose puck and stayed inside of Hodgson. That would have kept the sequence under control rather than getting everyone into scramble-mode. To see an example of this, look at 1:46 of the same video -- Hodgson and Gleason go through the same routine, but Gleason plays inside and the puck happens to go the other way.

Dwyer was clearly attempting to block Sulzer's shot. You're scaring me...do you really not recognize this as a shot-block attempt? And what else would you have Dwyer do there...allow Sulzer to tee it up?

You're right, the replay begins with Sulzer in mid-windup and my eye was on Dwyer at that instant. This is why I really don't like using video with abbreviated replay, but it was the only thing available for this game when I posted it.

As for whether Dwyer should allow Sulzer to take that shot... that's a tough question. Allow the guy with 4 career goals to take an unscreened shot from the point, or make him pass to the offensive specialist who is now able to walk it down into the faceoff circle with nobody challenging him? I don't necessarily blame Dwyer for going down, but it probably wasn't the strictly correct move to take himself out of the play there. I realize that's being really picky toward Dwyer.

Taking all of that into consideration, I'm inclined to switch the minus to Skinner, who should have been the guy to cover Sulzer. I see he starts flapping his arms at the ref after the goal is scored, so maybe there was more to the story... this is another time where the NHL's abbreviated highlights really suck to work with.

You ding one guy for moving after the puck (to the area that he is responsible for, no less) and in the same breath ding a guy for *not* moving somewhere. Again, what would you have Faulk and Dwyer do differently...skate out into the slot area? Skate backwards? Do a triple salchow?

I don't see this one as being particularly controversial.

- Faulk was literally standing still and watching the play, covering uncontested ice, long enough for the Sabres to begin that passing attack. He then decides to try and cross the slot to cover Vanek, who isn't even close to being within his reach, rather than covering his own side and locking down on his assignment. He was entirely responsible for Vanek having that passing lane in the first place. It was a tricky play, sure, but it wasn't beyond his ability to recognize and react correctly.

- Dwyer simply overshot the puck, and did a crap-tastic job of reacting to the events in front of him. Drifting back into the general area of the puck isn't good enough, not when the puck ends up being passed right in front of you on the way to a wide open shot. Simply having his stick on the ice would have been sufficient to disrupt that pass.




I agree that Dwyer wasn't at fault for the second goal, as he was covering an absent Skinner (edit: the game summary and master sheet have been updated to make this change). I believe Gleason earned his minus on the first goal, but I hadn't even thought about giving Faulk one for pushing his man into Gleason from behind. Anyone else want to chime in? Should Gleason be given a margin-of-error point here?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Anyone have thoughts on giving Faulk a minus on that first goal?

I'm going to go ahead and give Gleason a margin-of-error point since the minus is debatable.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Anyone have thoughts on giving Faulk a minus on that first goal?

I'm going to go ahead and give Gleason a margin-of-error point since the minus is debatable.

Honestly I still think Dwyer deserves a minus for trying to cover Skinners mistake by opening up a much bigger problem but I'm not exactly an authority on defensive positioning.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 5 vs Boston Bruins
1/28/2013
5-3 loss



ES GOALS FOR

1st 14:50 McBain (Eric Staal, Semin)
+1 Tlusty - It's subtle, but Tlusty's lead rush opened up the lanes that made this play possible. He also did a nice job screening Boychuk away from the slot for McBain. His board work began the rush in the defensive zone. Just a good overall supporting shift.
+1 Semin - On one of the few clean rushes anybody got in this game, Semin makes a nice soft lateral pass that's so enticing it actually pulls Chara out of position and sets up the final passing lane.
+1 Eric Staal - Great playmaking instincts to run the impromptu give-and-go with McBain.
+1 McBain - The deflection is excellent unto itself, but that soft backhand pass to Staal and cut to the net was brilliant hockey sense.

2nd 17:55 Skinner (Jordan Staal)
+1 Skinner - This one doesn't need too much explanation.
+1 Jordan Staal - Took the puck right off Thornton's stick in the neutral zone and led Skinner into a rush. Great two-way play.

2nd 18:45 Eric Staal (Semin)
+1 Semin - Not unlike Jordan on the previous play, Semin makes a clean takeaway off Kelly and lays a flat pass for Staal.
+1 Eric Staal - Didn't miss.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 15:52 Horton (Chara, Boychuk)
-1 Jordan Staal - Holy.
-1 Gleason - ****.

3rd 18:10 Krejci (Hamilton, Horton)
-1 Gleason - He had a chance to at least tie up the puck in the corner before all hell broke loose, but got outmuscled by Lucic and turned the puck over cleanly.
-1 Jokinen - Had a chance at that puck in the corner, again before things turned sour. Spent the rest of the shift a step behind the play, and in particular he lost Horton right in front of the net.
-1 Harrison - Granted, he was in a tough spot here. But gloving the puck directly to an opponent in front of the net is really not advisable.
-1 Skinner - That goal doesn't happen if Skinner simply stays in his assigned area and keeps his head on a swivel. Why is he following Horton behind the net? What is he expecting to happen back there? He should've been right on top of the puck as it came to Hamilton.

I'm torn on whether LaRose did anything minus-worthy there. I'm willing to give him a pass considering he actually did disrupt the play at one point, stayed with his assignment and really didn't get out of position other than to try and help his teammates during the scramble. He could've possibly left his position to make what would have been an outstanding check on the Hamilton pass, but that would have been the exceptional play rather than the expected.

Totals
+2 Eric Staal
+2 Semin
+1 McBain
+1 Tlusty
-1 Harrison
-1 Jokinen
-2 Gleason

 

[tarheelhockey]

Honestly I still think Dwyer deserves a minus for trying to cover Skinners mistake by opening up a much bigger problem but I'm not exactly an authority on defensive positioning.

I think you're right that he technically made the wrong play there, but it's hard to fault him for it given how completely open Sulzer was. Not sure it's minus-worthy but I can give him a margin of error point so we remember it.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I said it before in one of the GDTs, but Skinner's positioning defensively this season has been atrocious.

And I followed that up by saying if he keeps scoring the way he has been, I'll overlook it. And he has...so I will.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I said it before in one of the GDTs, but Skinner's positioning defensively this season has been atrocious.

And I followed that up by saying if he keeps scoring the way he has been, I'll overlook it. And he has...so I will.

That's pretty much where I am with him as well. It's hard to argue with a guy who's scoring a goal per game. But I think his 0 in this project is pretty telling about his overall game. Basically he's been a neutral charge at even strength, but chipped in a couple of PP goals to help the team.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 6 vs Ottawa Senators
2/1/2013
1-0 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 15:45 Eric Staal (Semin, Corvo)
+1 Eric Staal - A little lucky on the deflection; but that's why you go to the dirty areas.
+1 Tlusty - He's doing an underrated job with these screens. That goal probably doesn't happen if Tlusty doesn't force Ottawa's defense back and open a lane for Staal.
+1 Semin - Simple, smart playmaking.

ES GOALS AGAINST

none

Totals
+1 Semin
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty

 

[Joe McGrath]

Game 6 vs Ottawa Senators
2/1/2013
1-0 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 15:45 Eric Staal (Semin, Corvo)
+1 Eric Staal - A little lucky on the deflection; but that's why you go to the dirty areas.
+1 Tlusty - He's doing an underrated job with these screens. That goal probably doesn't happen if Tlusty doesn't force Ottawa's defense back and open a lane for Staal.
+1 Semin - Simple, smart playmaking.

ES GOALS AGAINST

none

Totals
+1 Semin
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty

If it were me, I would give Corvo a + as well. He makes a good breakout pass off the boards going away from the direction he was moving to spring Semin.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If it were me, I would give Corvo a + as well. He makes a good breakout pass off the boards going away from the direction he was moving to spring Semin.

I dunno, I felt like Semin made something out of nothing on that play. Corvo's pass was pretty much a blind chop that actually bounced over Eric's stick, then just rolled past a stick-less Sen into the neutral zone... should have been a turnover... and even then, Semin was literally 1-on-5 for a brief second after entry. To me, that was rightfully a dead play until Semin started deking around the entire Sens team.

Can we get a third opinion on this one?

 

[Joe McGrath]

I dunno, I felt like Semin made something out of nothing on that play. Corvo's pass was pretty much a blind chop that actually bounced over Eric's stick, then just rolled past a stick-less Sen into the neutral zone... should have been a turnover... and even then, Semin was literally 1-on-5 for a brief second after entry. To me, that was rightfully a dead play until Semin started deking around the entire Sens team.

Can we get a third opinion on this one?

I suppose a line has to be drawn somewhere since we could probably go back 2 minutes on some plays to find a meaningful play.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I suppose a line has to be drawn somewhere since we could probably go back 2 minutes on some plays to find a meaningful play.

Personally, going back to last year's project, this is how I draw the line:

Start with the goal, and backtrack to the point where the defense has all its ducks in a row to prevent a scoring chance. From that point forward, spot the elements which caused a defensive failure.

To my eye, Corvo didn't really spring Semin into an offensive opportunity or beat the defense in any material way. Semin's move through traffic turned a non-threatening situation into a scoring opportunity.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Personally, going back to last year's project, this is how I draw the line:

Start with the goal, and backtrack to the point where the defense has all its ducks in a row to prevent a scoring chance. From that point forward, spot the elements which caused a defensive failure.

To my eye, Corvo didn't really spring Semin into an offensive opportunity or beat the defense in any material way. Semin's move through traffic turned a non-threatening situation into a scoring opportunity.

If that's the criteria, then yeah I agree with your assessment. Makes perfect sense.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If that's the criteria, then yeah I agree with your assessment. Makes perfect sense.

Hold me to it, though it's tough to be consistent across a whole season of weird bounces and lucky blind passes.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 7 @ Philadelphia Flyers
2/2/2013
5-3 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

1st 8:47 Pitkanen (Eric Staal)
+1 Semin - It's a subtle move, but Semin actually creates the turnover for Staal by faking a move to the corner. Coburn is so focused on Semin that he completely leaves the puck, and Staal, wide open for a scoring chance.
+1 Eric Staal - Nice move and pass.
+1 Pitkanen - Nice finnish... zing

1st 15:58 Eric Staal (Tlusty)
+1 Tlusty - Forces Gervais into an absolutely horrible pass.
+1 Eric Staal - Nice finish... no zing

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 14:27 Coburn (Voracek, Brayden Schenn)
-1 Sanguinetti - Bad pinch. He wasn't anywhere near winning the race to that puck, and Dalpe played it straight to the spot where Sangs should have been.
-1 Jordan Staal - When Braydon Coburn outskates you the length of the ice and puts in a rebound at the top of the crease, it's time to consider moving your feet a little instead of coasting.

I remember during the GDT that there was some talk about Harrison being at fault here, but I don't see it. His job was to cut off the slot, which he did. "Passing" off the goalie's pads is the correct offensive play in that situation, and almost impossible for either the goalie or defenseman to stop when there are 3 opponents on the doorstep.

2nd 0:52 Knuble (Read)
-1 Faulk - Don't think there's too much question about that one.

Totals
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Pitkanen
+1 Semin
+1 Tlusty
-1 Faulk
-1 Sanguinetti
-1 Jordan Staal

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 8 @ Toronto Maple Leafs
2/4/2013
4-1 Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 1:21 Jordan Staal (Dwyer, Skinner)
+1 Skinner - Embarrassed multiple Leafs to negate the icing
+1 Dwyer - Embarrassed multiple Leafs by winning a 1-on-4 puck battle
+1 Jordan Staal - LOL Leafs

3rd 9:58 Dwyer (Jordan Staal, Skinner)
+1 Skinner - Probably the best forecheck of his career so far. Which is to say, he put a light hit on somebody and caused a turnover.
+1 Jordan Staal - That's a deceptively difficult assist. A lot of guys turn that puck over.
+1 Dwyer - Not sure where that shot came from, but I'll take it...

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 5:44 Frattin (Kadri, Komarov)
-1 Harrison - Somewhat victimized by a bad bounce in the offensive zone, but it's still his responsibility to get that puck in deep. Especially given who he's partnered with...
-1 Sanguinetti - This guy really is scary bad at defending rushes. Opponents should pretty much know to shoot it off the goalie by now, because Sangs isn't capable of clearing a loose puck.


Totals
+2 Dwyer
+2 Skinner
+2 Jordan Staal
-1 Harrison
-1 Sanguinetti

 

[tarheelhockey]

To provide a sense of perspective about Sanguinetti's horribleness at playing defense, here are numbers from the past two years...

Name | Even strength TOI | Minuses | Overall | Minus/60 | Overall/60
Bryan Allen|1355|20|-13|0.89|-0.58
Joe Corvo|58|1|-1|1.03|-1.03
Justin Faulk|1296|24|-16|1.11|-0.74
Tim Gleason|1574|22|-11|0.84|-0.42
Jay Harrison|1376|32|-21|1.40|-0.92
Derek Joslin|417|8|-5|1.15|-0.72
Tomas Kaberle|401*|10|-8|1.50|-1.20
Jamie McBain|1359|26|-7|1.15|-0.31
Joni Pitkanen|1608|14|-3|0.52|-0.11
Bobby Sanguinetti|98|5|-4| 3.06 | -2.45
Jaroslav Spacek|468*|15|-8|1.92|-1.03

The numbers we care about are in the two right-hand columns. Minuses/60 is the rate at which the player makes identifiable defensive errors. Total/60 is his overall personal effect on the scoreboard after you factor in his offensive production. In both cases, you want to be as close to 0 as possible.

The bolded numbers are beyond bad. They're video game type numbers. The guy makes catastrophic errors at double the rate of Kaberle. He's individually worth a goal and a half to the opponent for every 60 minutes he's on the ice. That's not sustainable, either because he's going to regress to the mean, or because he's going to be in the AHL before many more minuses pile up.

On a different note, Pitkanen looks fantastic here and McBain actually looks very good too. McBain's and Faulk's numbers remind me of what a roller coaster the past two seasons have been for them. Faulk was -4 after only 3 games last season, so maybe there's hope for Sangs...


* Spacek's and Kaberle's ESTOI are estimates. Since NHL.com only shows their season totals, rather than splitting it between two teams, I took their overall and pro-rated it for the number of games played with the Hurricanes. If anyone knows where to find their Canes-only ESTOI, I'd be grateful.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 9 @ Ottawa Senators
2/7/2013
3-2 OT Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 12:59 LaRose (Bowman, Harrison)

I can't find a single replay of this goal that isn't abbreviated to the breakaway portion of the play. I'm going to give LaRose, Bowman and Harrison each a +1 in good faith, but would GREATLY appreciate if someone can point me to a full replay.

OT 2:19 Harrison (Jordan Staal, Skinner)
+1 Jordan Staal - Not just the assist, but some really nice defensive stick work that lead to the rush.
+1 Skinner - A key transition play, stealing the puck and keeping it alive across the defensive blue line.
+1 Harrison - Sometimes genius and insanity are hard to distinguish. Harrison jumped into a forward rush in overtime, leaving Skinner to cover on defense, and scored the game-winning goal. Genius or insanity?


ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 18:03 Karlsson (Silvferberg, Smith)
-1 McBain - A blooper reel of mistakes by one player.
-1 Eric Staal - It took me a few views before I noticed the wide-angle shot of Staal coasting along while FIVE other players skate past him to try and be a factor in the scoring play. If Staal skates half as hard as Semin here, he disrupts that passing play and there is no chance for McBain to allow an easy tap-in.

2nd 16:04 Alfredsson (Turris, Gonchar)

Goaltender Error - Ward

Totals
+2 Harrison
+1 Bowman
+1 LaRose
+1 Skinner
+1 Jordan Staal
-1 McBain
-1 Eric Staal

 

[Novacane]

Regarding the LaRose goal, I don't have a video link, but can describe it the best I can from the GCL vault. Zach Smith is driving wide to Cam's left and Harrison blocks his shot.

The puck is now on Cam's right and several people battle over possession of the puck. Sangs appears to force Silfverberg to pass the puck to the halfwall. In an effort to keep the puck in the zone/away from LaRose, Chris Phillips slings the puck around to the other corner.

Harrison intercepts the pass along the boards and shoots the puck from Cam's right to his left. Bowman meets the puck along the wall and passes it up to LaRose who scores.

Here's a quick diagram I made.

Order of events go:
Red ---> Green ---> Blue ---> Brown ---> Black

And I drew Bowman's position a little too low, but that's the gist of the play.


http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlg=20122013,2,147&lang=en

The clip in the link sort of gives the end of the play as the puck is traveling from Harrison to Bowman.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Brilliant

And thanks for the link, it took me a second to figure out I needed to look at the individual goal replay instead of the compilation, but that clip was perfect.

I'm comfortable with those three guys having pluses. It was pretty much a coach's chalkboard version of how to break out of the zone.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 10 @ Philadelphia Flyers
2/9/2013
4-3 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

1st 0:17 Tlusty (Corvo, Eric Staal)
+1 Eric Staal - Solid faceoff win, which sets the play in motion exactly the way it's drawn up on the chalkboard.
+1 Corvo - Well placed shot to create a rebound.
+1 Tlusty - Executed the set play to perfection.

2nd 11:17 Skinner (Jordan Staal, Pitkanen)
+1 Skinner - Skinner pretty much made this goal happen out of nothing, while everyone else stood back and watched. Damn impressive, especially that shot.

3rd 7:58 Corvo (Jokinen, Gleason)
+1 Corvo - Again, just putting a smartly timed and placed shot on the net.
+1 Brent - Screened the bejeezus out of Bryzgalov, giving him almost no chance to make the save.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 13:52 B. Schenn (Timonen, Voracek)
-1 Sanguinetti - Weak effort to bump Schenn as he skates right in front of Ward for a the deflection, which was the only way that shot could have been even remotely threatening.

2nd 1:33 Read (Knuble)
-1 Eric Staal - As turnovers go, that's about the worst one you can make.

2nd 11:32 Voracek (B. Schenn, Bryzgalov)
-1 Corvo - Not sure exactly why he got caught flat-footed here, but with proper positioning he makes that centering pass a whole lot tougher to thread.
-1 Gleason - Gotta tie up the stick on that play, that one was just way too easy for Voracek.

OT 1:47 Briere (Grossmann, B. Schenn)
-1 Sanguinetti - Good ****ing lord. Finishing checks behind the opposing team's net in OT? Really? And even then, he skates 150 feet just to coast the final 20 feet and make a little "meh" one-handed poke at the puck.
-1 Jokinen - While it's not his responsibility to be Sanguinetti's babysitter, that was still some pretty crummy drive-by defense.


Totals
+1 Brent
+1 Corvo
+1 Skinner
+1 Tlusty
-1 Gleason
-1 Jokinen
-2 Sanguinetti

 

[Joe McGrath]

I'd give Sanguinetti a minus in the Staal giveaway for flying the zone early but that's probably purely out of disdain for his ability.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'd give Sanguinetti a minus in the Staal giveaway for flying the zone early but that's probably purely out of disdain for his ability.

I agree. He was the guy responsible for the front of the net and left it before the puck was out of the zone thus allowing Read to come in all alone. Staal also deserves it for the turn-over (but Knuble? did make a nice play deflecting Staal's attempt to clear).

 

[My Special Purpose]

I'd give Sanguinetti a minus in the Staal giveaway for flying the zone early but that's probably purely out of disdain for his ability.

Can we just give Sanguinetti a minus for every even-strength goal against whether he's on the ice or not, or even playing or not, just because of the damage he's doing by being on the roster? Will save time.