2005 Draft Discussion

[Jag68Sid87]

The fact you think the 'Hawks might have been a playoff team this season is exactly why a 30-team lottery is necessary. We simply cannot measure things like:


- How much of an impact Ovechkin would have had on the Caps in 2004-05, or if he would have even been in Washington.

- Whether the Chicago injury situation was the main reason for their collapse in 2003-04.

- Whether or not Pittsburgh's late-season surge in 2003-04 was a fluke, or a sign of better things to come right away.

- Whether Carolina's 2002 Cup run was a total aberration, or if there was a chance they could reclaim that magic in 2004-05.

- Jagr's impact with the Rangers for a full season, especially with Nylander by his side. Plus, what would the Rangers' roster have looked like in 2004-05? Complete rebuilding plan, or a few more veterans mixed in. We simply don't know.

And that's why it's too difficult to assume anything with regards to the perceived 5 worst teams of 2004-05.

 

[Injektilo]

Are you nuts?---IF he landed in Chicago,he would be THE SAVIOUR! Heaven knows,they need one---1961 and still waiting...its almost RedSoxian in its tragedy...but since the Redsox finally won last season,ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE--though we long-suffering Chicago fans somehow suspect the hockey gods will once again dash our hopes,and the Nextky will land elsewhere...

My point was, it takes time to build up into a legend, to the point where you can draw a huge crowd on one name alone. Gretzky had that in LA because he was already an established star, but even then he was more than just a star, people who didn't care about hockey knew the name because he'd had 10 years to establish himself. I really doubt many people in the US have heard the name Sidney Crosby before, and certainly no one who doesn't care about hockey does. Bringing him in won't lead to an instant savior. Simply putting an 18 year old kid down in a city isn't gonna save the team, he needs time to show off his skills. And what if he follows the jason spezza mold and needs a few years to develop his skills? What if he gets traded to a different team after three or four years? Players get moved around alot, they very rarely spend their whole careers with one or even two teams anymore.


I just don't think an 18 year old kid is going to be an instant savior. Not in todays game. I don't think anyone will really dominate the way 66 or 99 did.

 

[SPORTSMANIAC]

I agree with the last poster that no one in the USA outside of big hockey fans and around the northeast mostly in part of the Lewiston Maineiacs and maybe North Dakota cuz they held the U-20's have heard of Sidney Crosby. I tried to e-mail PTI many times a talk show on ESPN about him because they read e-mails on the air and they have never responded to my e-mails or shown them on the air. When you know ESPN doesn't care the sports world doesn't care. ESPN and NHL should of promote Crosby and shown some of his games in the USA and they had a golden oppuritunity to show the U-20 Gold Medal game but didn't. I can't see why ESPN can go into a high school gym and show Lebron James but can't go into a good size arena and show Crosby. People knew about Lebron when he came into the NBA because he was on national tv. It would be the same for Crosby if they showed him.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

You can't expect people like Kornheiser and Wilbon to know who Crosby is, or even care. They couldn't even pronounce Rimouski if you were to spot them the "mouski". There's a HUGE difference between a prodigy playing high-school basketball in Ohio, and a prodigy playing junior hockey in small-town Quebec. I mean, people don't even talk about Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, et al but they're supposed to know everything about Sidney Crosby?

Not too many people knew much about Steve Nash, either...but over time he's become a household name in the States. The same will be true for Crosby, but for full impact the NHL will have to become less of a joke than it already is down South.

 

[NYR469]

You can't expect people like Kornheiser and Wilbon to know who Crosby is, or even care. They couldn't even pronounce Rimouski if you were to spot them the "mouski". There's a HUGE difference between a prodigy playing high-school basketball in Ohio, and a prodigy playing junior hockey in small-town Quebec. I mean, people don't even talk about Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, et al but they're supposed to know everything about Sidney Crosby?

Not too many people knew much about Steve Nash, either...but over time he's become a household name in the States. The same will be true for Crosby, but for full impact the NHL will have to become less of a joke than it already is down South.

the fact that people don't know those names is an example of why the nhl does such a piss poor job marketing the game and there stars. and the attitude of 'well no one cares anyone so why should we bother' is exactly why no one cares...

the league could easily promote crosby and ovechkin and iginla, etc and make them known...maybe not to the same level as a lebron james because there are more basketball fans but there are enough hockey fans to do it...gretzky & lemieux became household names so that proves that nhlers can become household names in the us if given the opportunity.

 

[SPORTSMANIAC]

I agree NYR469 that there are more b-ball fans than hockey fans in the USA. What I was trying to get to in my earlier post was is the NHL does terrible marketing. I wander if Gerry Bettman has ever heard of Sidney Crosby. If he has we would be watching the NHL because he would see Sidney as the no. 1 pick and promote him. Since he as no clue who Sidney Crosby is he not making the run at a new CBA. That is why I was so excited with news last weekend that they were about to un-cancel because I thought Bettman saw how important the draft would be. With Crosby, Bourret, and the other great players that are in the draft this why I wanted the new CBA because of this draft.

 

[Injektilo]

You can't expect people like Kornheiser and Wilbon to know who Crosby is, or even care. They couldn't even pronounce Rimouski if you were to spot them the "mouski". There's a HUGE difference between a prodigy playing high-school basketball in Ohio, and a prodigy playing junior hockey in small-town Quebec. I mean, people don't even talk about Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, et al but they're supposed to know everything about Sidney Crosby?

Not too many people knew much about Steve Nash, either...but over time he's become a household name in the States. The same will be true for Crosby, but for full impact the NHL will have to become less of a joke than it already is down South.

That's exactly my point, if Crosby goes somewhere like Atlanta or Florida, 99.9% of the population will have never heard of him so any marketing campaign built around Crosby will be quite ineffective. The current hype around him in the hockey world means nothing outside of the hockey world. Compare it to the hype around Lebron James before he was drafted, EVERYONE knew who he was and that he was gonna be a star. That kind of hype only exists around Crosby in Canada really. Any franchise expecting to see an immediate boost from the drafting of Crosby is probably going to be dissapointed, it'll take a couple years for him to establish himself as a bonafide star (Unless he does pull a Gretzky and goes out and wins the scoring race in his first year... hands up everyone who thinks that will happen...).
All this debate over which city he'd be best suited in is kinda silly IMO, because the only places that he'd make an immediate impact are the really hockey crazed markets that already know who he is, and those aren't the ones that will need the help when this lockout is over.

To throw my .02 into this though, I'd say the team that could probably use him the most then is Chicago, then Buffalo or Pittsburgh. As for Canadian cities, probably Edmonton or maybe Montreal.


Even though I'm an Oilers fan, I think I'd like to see him play in Montreal (not that I'd complain if he went to edmonton), though I think the pressure on him there would be maybe a little too intense.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I think we all agree, but we're just expressing it differently. I know Crosby won't be well known right away in places such a Atlanta or Nashville, etc...but Gretzky was a complete unknown in the U.S. outside of Indianapolis and a few hockey-mad areas back in 1979 as well.

And for the record, and I know I'm going to get a LOT of flak for this, I think Crosby stands a chance to win the scoring title in his first NHL campaign--albeit slim. The club that chooses him will determine the extent of his shot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. Depends on what kind of NHL we're playing under, as well. Are we opening up the game and will the results show up right away? Or would Crosby merely need to put up 90-99 points to win it. If he's playing 35 minutes a night on a bad team, it could happen. If he's drafted by the Wild, then it will not.

But I wouldn't say it's impossible.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

And for the record, and I know I'm going to get a LOT of flak for this, I think Crosby stands a chance to win the scoring title in his first NHL campaign--albeit slim. The club that chooses him will determine the extent of his shot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. Depends on what kind of NHL we're playing under, as well. Are we opening up the game and will the results show up right away? Or would Crosby merely need to put up 90-99 points to win it. If he's playing 35 minutes a night on a bad team, it could happen. If he's drafted by the Wild, then it will not.

But I wouldn't say it's impossible.

35 minutes a night ????

Only 12 forwards in the NHL played more than 21 minutes a night last year, and only 7 of those played more than 70 games.

Only one forward played more than 23 minutes a night: Ilya Kovalchuk (23:41).

Not a single rookie forward played 19 minutes a game last year, and only two average better than 17 minutes, and they were both 24+ years of age (Malone & McLean).

 

[Master Lok]

Isn't all this discussion moot if there is no CBA by draft day?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Isn't all this discussion moot if there is no CBA by draft day?

The draft would occur soon after the signing of a new CBA, if that signing is beyond June. The speculation is for whenever the draft is held, whether ontime in June, in Ocotober, December, or in 2010. Whenever the new CBA is signed there will be a draft, so speculation is perfectly appropriate regarding what that draft will look like.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

35 minutes a night ????

Only 12 forwards in the NHL played more than 21 minutes a night last year, and only 7 of those played more than 70 games.

Only one forward played more than 23 minutes a night: Ilya Kovalchuk (23:41).

Not a single rookie forward played 19 minutes a game last year, and only two average better than 17 minutes, and they were both 24+ years of age (Malone & McLean).

John,
thanks for the math help. I really wanted to say "25 minutes a night" and for some reason I wound up saying 35 minutes. See, we've been away from hockey for so long, watching NBA games, that we've even forgotten about things like ice time! Sorry about that and thanks for the correction.

 

[B Boarding]

The draft 2005

Who will have the first pick? How do they make the rankning's of the teams this year? And is it already done?

 

[X0ssbar]

Another take on how the draft may play out:

"There did, however, seem to be general support for a system whereby a few lotteries are held -- perhaps six.

The bottom five teams in the 2003-04 standings would draw to establish the order of the first five selections. Then the teams that finished sixth-last through 10th-last would have another lottery to determine their order of selection and so on.

But while the general idea seemed feasible, there was no agreement on the specifics. There is a school of thought which says that since the Capitals already grabbed Ovechkin, they should be allowed to draft no higher than sixth this time."

Link

 

[WVP]

Yeah, it's already done.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Another take on how the draft may play out:

"There did, however, seem to be general support for a system whereby a few lotteries are held -- perhaps six.

The bottom five teams in the 2003-04 standings would draw to establish the order of the first five selections. Then the teams that finished sixth-last through 10th-last would have another lottery to determine their order of selection and so on.

But while the general idea seemed feasible, there was no agreement on the specifics. There is a school of thought which says that since the Capitals already grabbed Ovechkin, they should be allowed to draft no higher than sixth this time."

Link

Very cool link. As it has info from the BOG meeting, if the sources are feeding this to Strachan accurately, then it gives a pretty good indication of where things may go. I do like the idea of tiered drafting, that allows some movement which reflects somewhat the lost season, and yet will not turn standings on their head which is totally without logic.

 

[EroCaps]

I like the idea of tiered drafting, but the "school of thought" that has the Caps picking 6th is almost hostile towards Washington. There's no way to measure what success a team would have had this year, and there's no way to measure what impact Ovechkin or any #1 pick could have had for us. The Pens and Thrasher weren't subject to that rule, why should the Caps be.

If the latter suggestion goes down to get the Rangers into the lottery I'll be severely pissed. **** the Rangers. Aren't they more responsible for inflated salaries and this lockout more than any team?

IMO, tiered lotteries are the perfect solution.

 

[Captain Conservative]

Another take on how the draft may play out:

"There did, however, seem to be general support for a system whereby a few lotteries are held -- perhaps six.

The bottom five teams in the 2003-04 standings would draw to establish the order of the first five selections. Then the teams that finished sixth-last through 10th-last would have another lottery to determine their order of selection and so on.

But while the general idea seemed feasible, there was no agreement on the specifics. There is a school of thought which says that since the Capitals already grabbed Ovechkin, they should be allowed to draft no higher than sixth this time."

Link

I'd be so pissed if that happened. Luckily, theres no chance in hell it will.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I'd be so pissed if that happened. Luckily, theres no chance in hell it will.

I think that it is unlikely as well. Though I wonder if they do choose that six tier system whether it will be a straight shot for all five teams in each tier (20% chance at the top of the tier for each) or if it will be weighted by 2003-4 finish. ie, numbers 1, 6, 11, 16, 21, and 26 will have a stronger chance than the numbers below them in each tier?

 

[octopi]

Theres no way to make the draft completly fair, but I say:

1.Teams that have made it to the Cup finals in the last four years cannot have a chance at first pick. Also teams that have made the conference finals at least twice in last 5 years.

2. Teams that have had a number 1-3 pick in the last 3 years cannot have a chance at first pick

Take the remaining teams and draw from them, until you get to at least 6th pick. Then add the remaining teams in with the rest.

 

[se7en*]

Your criteria sounds interesting octopi.

So far I reasoned it out a little.

YAY:
Phoenix
Ny Rangers
Los Angeles
Minnesota
Buffalo
Edmonton
Ny Islanders
Nashville
St. Louis
Montreal
Dallas
Vancouver
Ottawa
Toronto
Boston
San Jose

NAY:
Tampa Bay
New Jersey
Detroit
Colorado
Carolina
Anaheim
Calgary
Philadelphia
Washington
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Florida
Columbus
Atlanta

Am I right?

 

[RangerBoy]

I like the idea of tiered drafting, but the "school of thought" that has the Caps picking 6th is almost hostile towards Washington. There's no way to measure what success a team would have had this year, and there's no way to measure what impact Ovechkin or any #1 pick could have had for us. The Pens and Thrasher weren't subject to that rule, why should the Caps be.

If the latter suggestion goes down to get the Rangers into the lottery I'll be severely pissed. **** the Rangers. Aren't they more responsible for inflated salaries and this lockout more than any team?

IMO, tiered lotteries are the perfect solution.

Why is the Capitals picking 6th hostile?Before the Capitals tanked the 2003-04 season by trading everyone,the Capitals had 96 points in 2000-01,85 points in 2001-02 and 92 points in 2002-03.Other teams will lesser records should be give more consideration for the lottery

The Capitals deserve their share on the blame with the lockout.Why did Ted Leonsis give Jaromir Jagr that ridiculous contract in the summer of 2001 when Jagr still had two more seasons on his contract?$11 million per.Many teams are responsible for the lockout

The Rangers won't be worst that seventh if the standings from the last 2 or 3 or 4 years are taken into account

 

[DARKSIDE]

Since there was no season, therefore no games played and with the uncertain future of teams with a new CBA, maybe they should determine the draft by ranking organization prospects. Certain fans want to go back using prior standings that will benefit the losing organizations. I say look ahead at the teams that have bright futures and are stocked, why should they get a gimme. Teams like the Devils, Detroit and the Avs will probably take a step back, while teams like Atlanta, Florida and Chicago could be heading up. This is a good opportunity to reward the teams that have shown excellence and have been drafting near the bottom for several years.

 

[hawksfan50]

Actually --the idea that the Caps should draft no higher than 6th, with NYR in the Crosby sweepstales in the top 5 tier makes sense (they just misssed out last time while the Caps hit the jackpot)....similar logic says that CHI should get an EXTRA
chance in the top 5 Crosby tier because: a) they got jobbed by the hockey gods last time in not getting either Ovechkin or Malkin and instead had to settle for Barker (who nobody would pay $75 US to see anyway)...and b) losers since 1961!!!
Clearly the Hawks DESERVE an extra chance--so it should be a top tier of PIT,CHI,CHI again,CLBS,PHX and NYR with CHI getting 2 equal chances (33.333% total chance) and the other 4 getting only 1 equal chance (16.666% each) ...of course, the hockey gods still would stick it to the Hawks again anyway...

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Since there was no season, therefore no games played and with the uncertain future of teams with a new CBA, maybe they should determine the draft by ranking organization prospects. Certain fans want to go back using prior standings that will benefit the losing organizations. I say look ahead at the teams that have bright futures and are stocked, why should they get a gimme. Teams like the Devils, Detroit and the Avs will probably take a step back, while teams like Atlanta, Florida and Chicago could be heading up. This is a good opportunity to reward the teams that have shown excellence and have been drafting near the bottom for several years.

Talk about wanting your cake and eat it too. We should just have a lottery between Detroit, Toronto, Colorado, The Sens, Tampa Bay and Philly to determine 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 in the draft because those teams fans have suffered so over the past few years. Warching some posts here of fans who have not known any degree of losing in 20 years (half the teams in that list above) making a grab for a top pick based on absolutely nothing but the most spurious of 'logic' is sickening.