2005 Draft Discussion

[Jaded-Fan]

Finally, some definitive word on the draft:

The draft

The cancellation of the season does not necessarily mean there won't be a draft in June. There is time to get a new CBA in place before then, which would allow the draft to go on as planned. However, there is little motivation to get a deal done by then, so the draft is unlikely to happen on schedule. Agents are gauging the legality of having their draft-eligible players declared unrestricted free agents if there isn't a draft. So, phenom Sidney Crosby, for example, could end up going to the highest bidder instead of the team with the top pick.


No matter the result of that legal wrangling, a draft must be held before the next NHL season begins. The NHL's Bill Daly has said the order of the draft would be decided in a 30-team lottery weighted on the results of the 2003-04 season.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nhl/story/3410810

As a ps, this does guarentee that my Pens have the best chance at Crosby, now all that is to be determined is how good that chance is. Anywhere close to the standard 48.5% chance or far lower? I would have to guess that it would have to be at least 25% chance or better and I can not imagine Tampa Bay for instance being given better than a token chance. But the final statement on the draft above opens a lot to speculation.



I am guessing that a few details have been left out of the above, and that they will not allow a team to rise or fall more than say 10 spaces as that would make sense. If not I am not especially happy. No matter the wieghting there is no way that having the bottom five teams potentially fall to 30 is anywhere near reflective of playing out a season. None of those teams would likely rise above bottom 10 status. And top five, six or seven teams? Ending up worst or anywhere near even middle of the pack? That is a joke. I have to believe that they will tier how far you can fall at least.

Click to read more...

 

[pei fan]

The wording of that I think is very open-ended,enough so that it could meanthe draft will be conducted as usual or there could be changes but I don't think
they will be dramatic changes.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

At least we have something definitive pei fan, finally, from the league on this issue. More details would be nice, but this at least ends the speculation to a degree. It eliminates the 'equal lottery chance' speculation and also ends the idea of weighting it over several seasons. So though it leaves lots of questions it does answer some key questions as well.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

It is nice to have something that points to a method for this draft. Thank the lord they're not opting for that silly everyone-gets-the-same-chance idea.

 

[TVanek26*]

It is nice to have something that points to a method for this draft. Thank the lord they're not opting for that silly everyone-gets-the-same-chance idea.

Ah yes,because we all know that the same 5 teams that suck year in and year out should always get the top picks right?

 

[Rocket#9]

How about they just put 465 names in a barrel.

30 Pittsburgh
29 Chicago
28 Washington
1 Tampa Bay etc

465 being 30! (dont know the english word for the (!) math formula)

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Ah yes,because we all know that the same 5 teams that suck year in and year out should always get the top picks right?

. . . you have your opinion on this issue, others such as him and I have the opposite opinion. It no longer matters, to one degree or another the league seems to share our opinion not yours. So silly to keep and now we should move on to discussing the details of what they have come up with.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Ah yes,because we all know that the same 5 teams that suck year in and year out should always get the top picks right?

Right.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

Ah yes,because we all know that the same 5 teams that suck year in and year out should always get the top picks right?

Yes, as long as the team I like is one of those five.

I'll change my opinion to the completely illogical concept of giving the best talent to the best teams when my team joins those teams.

 

[Alter Haudegen]

It is nice to have something that points to a method for this draft. Thank the lord they're not opting for that silly everyone-gets-the-same-chance idea.

No, because we might get the equally silly you-play-one-******-season-and-get-two-first-overall-picks (Washington) idea.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

No, because we might get the equally silly you-play-one-******-season-and-get-two-first-overall-picks (Washington) idea.

Even if they used exactly the same weighting as last draft, Washington would have (if I am remembering correctly, and I am sure that I am) less than a 15% chance of striking gold twice. In fact, if all 30 teams have a chance as has been said Washington will be guarenteed to have even less of a chance this time, those extra percentages have to come from somewhere. True, Washington will have a chance, albeit a small one, of getting Crosby, but let us keep some perspective here.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

No, because we might get the equally silly you-play-one-******-season-and-get-two-first-overall-picks (Washington) idea.

You're right, I forgot that Washington had a one-in-30 shot at winning the Cup if there was a season.

When there was a sliver of hope for the season, someone posed the question, "Who will win the Cup?" How come no one was plugging Washington, Columbus or Chicago for that? Answer me that, then defend the everyone-is-equal idea.
In fact, that thread started with someone pushing Pittsburgh as a potential Cup winner. You know what happened? Posters ripped the idea up and down.

In the spirt of full disclosure, I've long lobbied on these boards for using a sample of several seasons to rank teams, not merely the 03-04 season.

Besides, there still are unanswered questions. If the lottery will determine all 30 slots, then the Detroits, Tampas, Torontos of the world still will have a shot at landing in the top 10. They just won't have an equal shot.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

You're right, I forgot that Washington had a one-in-30 shot at winning the Cup if there was a season.

In the spirt of full disclosure, I've long lobbied on these boards for using a sample of several seasons to rank teams, not merely the 03-04 season.

Besides, there still are unanswered questions. If the lottery will determine all 30 slots, then the Detroits, Tampas, Torontos of the world still will have a shot at landing in the top 10. They just won't have an equal shot.

Will they? It seemed to say that (weighted lottery with all 30 teams) but could mean that all teams have a chance to move anywhere between 1 and 30 . . . or not. Those are the intriguing detials left out for now. They could easily have a floor and ceiling for moving down or up and still fall within the words 'weighted lottery with all 30 teams.' We just do not know.

 

[SwOOsh*]

Well here's to hoping that if the Capitals don't win the lottery either the Pens or Hawks do so that the Caps atleast pick 3rd.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

Will they? It seemed to say that (weighted lottery with all 30 teams) but could mean that all teams have a chance to move anywhere between 1 and 30 . . . or not. Those are the intriguing detials left out for now. They could easily have a floor and ceiling for moving down or up and still fall within the words 'weighted lottery with all 30 teams.' We just do not know.

Agreed. There still seems to be somethings to clarify.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Two things about this piece concern me:

1) Kara Yorio - she's not good.

2) What she wrote is "Bill Daly has said..." She's not quoting him from an interview she did ("Bill Daly told me..."). She's simply regurgitating that he said something to this effect. So, when and in what context did he say this? That, to me, would have been the story, not this blurb from her column. Has it been reported?


In no way does this change my opinion that teams that suck should get the top draft picks.

 

[Roger's Pancreas*]

The black hawks most definately deserve the opportunity before anyone else. If a season was played Ovechkin would have ruined the chance for Washington to have that opportunity.

 

[NYRangers]

I would be stunned if this weren't partially rigged to get Crosby to one of the big cities -- NYC, CHI, or LA.

Its not fair at all, but I honestly would be surprised if he doesn't end up in one of those places. I don't see any of the high end guys of the union or NHL like Gary have any reason not to do this.

I dunno, maybe I am taking it a little far. But as I said, if they put Crosby in like Washington (where they already have AO) or like Carolina (no offense guys, just not a huge hockey area) I would be shocked. I don't think they'd let it happen.

 

[EroCaps]

BEST...NEWS...TODAY

 

[Alter Haudegen]

You're right, I forgot that Washington had a one-in-30 shot at winning the Cup if there was a season.

When there was a sliver of hope for the season, someone posed the question, "Who will win the Cup?" How come no one was plugging Washington, Columbus or Chicago for that? Answer me that, then defend the everyone-is-equal idea.

Yes, and I am pretty sure that all you experts were plugging Calgary at the beginning of last season.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

I really don't care for the Rangers, but Crosby to New York could be great for the NHL in terms of marketing, as much as I hate to say that.

 

[EroCaps]

Well here's to hoping that if the Capitals don't win the lottery either the Pens or Hawks do so that the Caps atleast pick 3rd.

I will go on record now as saying I can't imagine a worse scenario for Caps fans than Crosby in Pittsburgh. Anywhere else, literally. I had my share of Mario and Jagr.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

Two things about this piece concern me:

1) Kara Yorio - she's not good.

2) What she wrote is "Bill Daly has said..." She's not quoting him from an interview she did ("Bill Daly told me..."). She's simply regurgitating that he said something to this effect. So, when and in what context did he say this? That, to me, would have been the story, not this blurb from her column. Has it been reported?

Completly agree. Without an actual quote from Daly, this is pure speculation.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

If I were to guess what they will do, I would guess the following.

Last draft it had the 14 teams not making the playoffs involved by having balls in the lottery, didn't it? But no team could move up more than five slots. The team with the worst record had something like a 25% chance but it was augmented by the fact that if a team from 6 - 14 'won' then the team with the worst record got the first pick. So the Pens in effect had a 48.5% chance, their 25% and the teams below 5's chance.

I would guess that they would not augment the chance of the Pens, Pittsburgh would have a 25% chance, not virtual 50/50 chance. The teams from 15 - 30 would get lesser amounts and I would guess as well that there would be a floor and ceiling on movement, except for number 1. I would guess that floor and ceiling would be far broader than the five place in the past, maybe ten places but no more. This would be a fair system I think.

 

[Drake1588]

This is likely the way that the draft will play out when they do get around to holding it (or some slight variation on the same), but Yorio's reporting is often suspect. I'm skeptical that this is definitive at all just yet. She purports to be passing on Bill Daly's statements as to how the NHL will hold the draft... as though this were established some time ago. Yorio would not be the only source reporting on the format set to determine where Sidney Crosby is going to end up. The media would be going coocoo for cocoa puffs over news like that, and there's not a peep out of anyone except a notoriously squirrelly Sporting News columnist, uttered in a brief aside.

Bill Daly has said this? Really? Show me the quotes, and better yet, I'd like to hear the audio clip. For hockey journalists twiddling their thumbs right now, this is big news and it would be getting ink if it's true... and Yorio never scoops anyone.

This report and the thread strike me as a tad premature -- and as a Caps fan I say that as someone hoping it's what occurs. We still don't really know what they're going to do. I would not call this the, 'definitive word on the draft.' I think we're still in the rumors period.