Post-Game Talk: 1st place hockey

[phaedrusDH]

So it’s happened twice? Hall will want north of 8m, quite the gamble and unrealistic given cap space.

Justin Williams. i'm sure there are lots of examples of meeting expectations on retreads. hell, i'd argue that was even true of Smyth.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Justin Williams. i'm sure there are lots of examples of meeting expectations on retreads. hell, i'd argue that was even true of Smyth.

heh, I was just thinking of JW. Carolina fans were chanting his name by the end of the night and culminating in his shootout winner goal. Besides which NHL is an entertainment product and Carolina fans haven't had too much to cheer for since 2006. Nostalgia is real. Its supported, its why people essentially go to Rolling Stones or Elton John or The Who concerts forever.

In the NHL however multiple return to success at the same place instances are rarer because a lot of the hockey world is probably made up of a healthy dose of obstinance and not ever admitting you were wrong. For instance the Oilers even going back to Hall is something I think that the prior bunch wouldn't do. They'd already concluded on the player.

The NHL brethren just rarely believe in even trying second helpings. Theres usually some chasing of newer visions.

Smyth is a good example though. But the org seemed pretty reluctant to do it. For sure Smyth was derided a fair bit on his return here. By fans and the org.

 

[CornKicker]

I'm actually glad we get a 2 weeks off from hockey
gives us fans a bit of a mental break too

but the opposite happens here and by day 11 there will be a 20 page back and forth about something semi related to the oilers that morphs into ridiculousness.

and im here for it cause its hilarious.

 

[oobga]

Would have been nice if they stuck an extra game in before this break. March has 16 games in 30 days. Gonna be a heck of a grind towards the finish line this season. Fortunately 10/16 of those are at home, and the away's are in two 3 game trips (both trips are 3 games in 4 days).

 

[nabob]

but the opposite happens here and by day 11 there will be a 20 page back and forth about something semi related to the oilers that morphs into ridiculousness.

and im here for it cause its hilarious.

My bet is a random Finnish newspaper will reprint a 6 month old quote from Puljujarvi and half the board will lose their shit over it.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

My bet is a random Finnish newspaper will reprint a 6 month old quote from Puljujarvi and half the board will lose their **** over it.

You missed that an Edmonton reporter will Google translate the 6 month old Finnish story and then some rando Edmonton blogger misinterprets the Edmonton newspaper Google translate story in a retweet resulting in an eventual HFOil meltdown which somehow morphs into whether or not Taylor Hall will play for the Oilers at a 4 year 6 mill per deal.

 

[iCanada]

Hall is getting raked over the goals for goaltending effects he's got basically nothing to do with.

Not sure how you can blame Hall for Blackwood's save percentage moving from 0.880 to 0.905. Nor can you blame Hall for Darcy Kempers injury. Both teams swung 2% in save percentage; it is borderline impossible for one guy to have that kind of effect on on-ice sv% while averaging 17 minutes a night. For that to be true he'd need to have an on-ice sv% over 7% lower than the teams mean on-ice save percentage, which is clearly just not reality.

I also question all of the advanced stats from certain articles showing Hall has bad scoring chances stats or even Corsi; based on both Natural Stat trick and Corsica he's 6th in CF% on the Yotes while having the highest xGF% on the team, while having the lowest PDO on the team (0.98) that is several standard deviations below his ten year career average of ~1.01.

The other huge factor in NJD's "resurgence" is just that not only are the younger players on the team playing better, but absolutely all pressure on the team was removed once Hall was traded. They sucked with their best player, then they lost him; no one reasonably expected them to not suck. They were at a point where no performance would be worse than expected and you had a group of guys realizing that they might be having their last chance of proving they can play at this level. Those are the conditions that had the Oilers seeing a 50 point pace out of guys like Ryan Potulny...

Not to mention, saying the devil's are 8-5-1 without Hall is kind of disengenious. They are 4-5-1 in their last ten and have lost three straight. They went on a short heater, but that included a few legendary goaltending performances and a number of opponents just kind of lying down for a trap game; they beat the Caps, Bruins and Lightning playing the second game of a back to back between several major divisional games, and then they also had an extremely weak schedule including the sens twice, the rags twice, and Hawks before they started to heat up. Not to mention, in that 8-5-1 stretch the devil's still have a -9 goal differential (which is actually nearly identical to their goal differential on a per game basis with Hall). Meanwhile the yotes in this stretch are 7-7-2 and only -2 in goal differential, being 5-3-2 in their last 10.... With their starting goaltender injured the whole time and having several goaltending stinkers in that frame of time.

These Hall posts saying he's sewered the yotes and the devil's are better without him are nothing but stats bent to prove a narrative.

I think for me the reality is that Hall is simply not worth Draisaitl money.
He will get that (or maybe more) somewhere...I just hope to hell it isnt with this team.

Hall is worth Draisaitl money. Draisaitl is worth McDavid money.

Can we afford to pay Hall Drai money? Probably not. But that's not really the same point.

 

[Oil Dood]

Hall is getting raked over the goals for goaltending effects he's got basically nothing to do with.

Not sure how you can blame Hall for Blackwood's save percentage moving from 0.880 to 0.905. Nor can you blame Hall for Darcy Kempers injury. Both teams swung 2% in save percentage; it is borderline impossible for one guy to have that kind of effect on on-ice sv% while averaging 17 minutes a night. For that to be true he'd need to have an on-ice sv% over 7% lower than the teams mean on-ice save percentage, which is clearly just not reality.

I also question all of the advanced stats from certain articles showing Hall has bad scoring chances stats or even Corsi; based on both Natural Stat trick and Corsica he's 6th in CF% on the Yotes while having the highest xGF% on the team, while having the lowest PDO on the team (0.98) that is several standard deviations below his ten year career average of ~1.01.

The other huge factor in NJD's "resurgence" is just that not only are the younger players on the team playing better, but absolutely all pressure on the team was removed once Hall was traded. They sucked with their best player, then they lost him; no one reasonably expected them to not suck. They were at a point where no performance would be worse than expected and you had a group of guys realizing that they might be having their last chance of proving they can play at this level. Those are the conditions that had the Oilers seeing a 50 point pace out of guys like Ryan Potulny...

Not to mention, saying the devil's are 8-5-1 without Hall is kind of disengenious. They are 4-5-1 in their last ten and have lost three straight. They went on a short heater, but that included a few legendary goaltending performances and a number of opponents just kind of lying down for a trap game; they beat the Caps, Bruins and Lightning playing the second game of a back to back between several major divisional games, and then they also had an extremely weak schedule including the sens twice, the rags twice, and Hawks before they started to heat up. Not to mention, in that 8-5-1 stretch the devil's still have a -9 goal differential (which is actually nearly identical to their goal differential on a per game basis with Hall). Meanwhile the yotes in this stretch are 7-7-2 and only -2 in goal differential, being 5-3-2 in their last 10.... With their starting goaltender injured the whole time and having several goaltending stinkers in that frame of time.

These Hall posts saying he's sewered the yotes and the devil's are better without him are nothing but stats bent to prove a narrative.



Hall is worth Draisaitl money. Draisaitl is worth McDavid money.

Can we afford to pay Hall Drai money? Probably not. But that's not really the same point.

Hall is an excellent player, the Hart trophy is not given out by mistake. Can we afford him? Probably not. Do I wish we had him? Absolutly.

 

[CornKicker]

You missed that an Edmonton reporter will Google translate the 6 month old Finnish story and then some rando Edmonton blogger misinterprets the Edmonton newspaper Google translate story in a retweet resulting in an eventual HFOil meltdown which somehow morphs into whether or not Taylor Hall will play for the Oilers at a 4 year 6 mill per deal.

hahaha nothing will surprise me, i remember the thread calculating flight costs to get certain minor league players to a destination by a certain time and how dumb the oilers were for "spending" 10-15k more than they would have needed to if made up scenario 2 happened.

 

[CornKicker]

Would have been nice if they stuck an extra game in before this break. March has 16 games in 30 days. Gonna be a heck of a grind towards the finish line this season. Fortunately 10/16 of those are at home, and the away's are in two 3 game trips (both trips are 3 games in 4 days).

and we get to play the ducks and kings and sharks and those teams are bums so thats also good.

 

[guymez]

Hall is worth Draisaitl money. Draisaitl is worth McDavid money.

Can we afford to pay Hall Drai money? Probably not. But that's not really the same point.

Thats fair.
That said I wouldnt pay him Draisaitl money even if the team could afford it.

 

[oobga]

and we get to play the ducks and kings and sharks and those teams are bums so thats also good.

Because the Oilers always take advantage of weak competition?

I really hope this team gets in the zone down the stretch. I didn't think they would back in 2017, and they surprised me. I guess it's different looking at the "easy" games in Nov/Dec than when the season is almost over and you're in a dog fight for a playoff spot. Much easier to relax near the start of the season when there is such a long road left.

 

[oobga]

Man, Kevin Lowe needs to not be allowed to write his own bio on the Oilers site

KEVIN LOWE

Alternate Governor

Kevin Lowe, 60, is an Alternate Governor of Oilers Entertainment Group (OEG). Previously, Lowe served as the Oilers President of Hockey Operations for seven seasons and prior to that he spent eight seasons as the Oilers General Manager.
A new era in Oilers' history was ushered in when Lowe was named to the position of General Manager on June 9, 2000. With the announcement, the first-ever draft pick in Oilers' history replaced Glen Sather, who held the position since June of 1979. Lowe's appointment came a year after he was named Head Coach of the Oilers on June 18, 1999. Over those years the team's payroll was annually near the bottom of the league however the team was a league leader in dollars spent for points earned in standings including many playoff appearances. As GM, he became one of only 40 general managers in the history of the NHL to get his team to the Stanley Cup finals in 2006, losing in game seven to the Carolina Hurricanes.

It took the popular Lowe only three seasons from his retirement from the game as a player to make his way to the position of General Manager. After a brilliant playing career in the National Hockey League with the Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers, Lowe announced his retirement from the game on July 30, 1998 and joined the coaching ranks as he served as an assistant coach with Ron Low's Edmonton staff in 1998-99.

I remember Lavoie's recalling one of first things Lowe told him when they met last summer. "As a Canadiens fan, Lavoie later becomes even more impressed when he finds out Lowe is one of six players in NHL history to win at least six Stanley Cups without having won one with Montreal."

Lowe's job honestly appears to be finding ways to play with numbers to come up with new impressive ways to talk about his accomplishments.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Implants.

It's nice and balanced.

It's not like the first half of the year when our lines were waaay too Top Heavy:

 

[iCanada]

Man, Kevin Lowe needs to not be allowed to write his own bio on the Oilers site




I remember Lavoie's recalling one of first things Lowe told him when they met last summer. "As a Canadiens fan, Lavoie later becomes even more impressed when he finds out Lowe is one of six players in NHL history to win at least six Stanley Cups without having won one with Montreal."

Lowe's job honestly appears to be finding ways to play with numbers to come up with new impressive ways to talk about his accomplishments.

Yikes, that is embarrassing.

Imagine being such a has been all you can do is brag about past glory. I almost feel bad for him.

Almost.

 

[oobga]

It's nice and balanced.

It's not like the first half of the year when our lines were waaay too Top Heavy:

 

[Stoneman89]

Hall is getting raked over the goals for goaltending effects he's got basically nothing to do with.

Not sure how you can blame Hall for Blackwood's save percentage moving from 0.880 to 0.905. Nor can you blame Hall for Darcy Kempers injury. Both teams swung 2% in save percentage; it is borderline impossible for one guy to have that kind of effect on on-ice sv% while averaging 17 minutes a night. For that to be true he'd need to have an on-ice sv% over 7% lower than the teams mean on-ice save percentage, which is clearly just not reality.

I also question all of the advanced stats from certain articles showing Hall has bad scoring chances stats or even Corsi; based on both Natural Stat trick and Corsica he's 6th in CF% on the Yotes while having the highest xGF% on the team, while having the lowest PDO on the team (0.98) that is several standard deviations below his ten year career average of ~1.01.

The other huge factor in NJD's "resurgence" is just that not only are the younger players on the team playing better, but absolutely all pressure on the team was removed once Hall was traded. They sucked with their best player, then they lost him; no one reasonably expected them to not suck. They were at a point where no performance would be worse than expected and you had a group of guys realizing that they might be having their last chance of proving they can play at this level. Those are the conditions that had the Oilers seeing a 50 point pace out of guys like Ryan Potulny...

Not to mention, saying the devil's are 8-5-1 without Hall is kind of disengenious. They are 4-5-1 in their last ten and have lost three straight. They went on a short heater, but that included a few legendary goaltending performances and a number of opponents just kind of lying down for a trap game; they beat the Caps, Bruins and Lightning playing the second game of a back to back between several major divisional games, and then they also had an extremely weak schedule including the sens twice, the rags twice, and Hawks before they started to heat up. Not to mention, in that 8-5-1 stretch the devil's still have a -9 goal differential (which is actually nearly identical to their goal differential on a per game basis with Hall). Meanwhile the yotes in this stretch are 7-7-2 and only -2 in goal differential, being 5-3-2 in their last 10.... With their starting goaltender injured the whole time and having several goaltending stinkers in that frame of time.

These Hall posts saying he's sewered the yotes and the devil's are better without him are nothing but stats bent to prove a narrative.



Hall is worth Draisaitl money. Draisaitl is worth McDavid money.

Can we afford to pay Hall Drai money? Probably not. But that's not really the same point.

And neither of those statements are even close to being true.

My own point through all this, is that if Hall is willing to sign here for a lower amount than is rumoured and for less term, I am definitely interested. Anything more than 5 years and 8 million is beyond where I would go. Not that I think they would be able to do it anyhow, without moving some needed depth the other way, but I doubt it happens.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Lowe used to have a title that went something like Manager in charge of accruing top picks. (not verbatim I wish I could remember the exact title or screenshotted it.) It was basically like the org coming right out with it and saying he was in charge of the tank, while the org was claiming they weren't tanking.

 

[Drivesaitl]

And neither of those statements are even close to being true.

My own point through all this, is that if Hall is willing to sign here for a lower amount than is rumoured and for less term, I am definitely interested. Anything more than 5 years and 8 million is beyond where I would go. Not that I think they would be able to do it anyhow, without moving some needed depth the other way, but I doubt it happens.

Well, depends what worth standard one uses. if Eberle and Nuge were worth 6M longterm Hall is clearly worth much more than that, as well as Draisaitl who is one of the better bargains going. Weren't we paying useless sods like Sekera 5.5M?

Some team is going to pay Hall around 8M I figure, and maybe even 9, not because he will necessarily be worth it but because he's a name, a marquee player still. To wit the Yotes are doing a lot of promotion around Hall already and really he's the top profile player they've ever had with apology to Doan or OEL. In non traditional hockey markets paying a name like Hall probably makes sense.

Yotes will try to keep him but no way Hall signs there if the Yotes miss playoffs. Probably won't even if they make it.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

LIKE!
(Got slapped - no like button. Feel like I'm finally accepted on HF!)

Welcome to the club.

To those who are concerned I get my like button back Feb 11. It will be a grand occasion. Everyone is getting a like.

 

[Austerlitz]

Hall is an excellent player, the Hart trophy is not given out by mistake. Can we afford him? Probably not. Do I wish we had him? Absolutly.

That Hart looked silly at the time and won't age well.

 

[RegDunlop]

Welcome to the club.

To those who are concerned I get my like button back Feb 11. It will be a grand occasion. Everyone is getting a like.

Ha!
It is quite funny some of the things you can and can't do!
My fault tho - have never read the rules!

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Ha!
It is quite funny some of the things you can and can't do!
My fault tho - have never read the rules!

You and me both brotha.

 

[RegDunlop]

You and me both brotha.

View attachment 310953

Like!

 

[Oil Dood]

That Hart looked silly at the time and won't age well.

He earned it that year, he was that good for NJ.