Proposal: 1OA pick to Ottawa

[Adam da bomb]

In my offer, Tkachuk replaces 3rd overall in a sense. Plus I'm overpaying to a degree where it upsets the entire fanbase apparently. lol

Instead of 3rd, it's Tkachuk +
5th
Brannstrom
L.Brown

For the jets it would have to be Norris instead of brown. Nm the deal would be awful for the Jets we don’t need tkachuk we are set for wingers. We would that 3rd as we need our future 1c.

 

[Habs Halifax]

For the jets it would have to be Norris instead of brown.

No way Lafreniere is worth Tkachuk, 5th OA, Brannstrom and Norris. I don't think the 1st gets traded and you would be a fool to think the Sens offer that much of their futures.

- In terms of value, Tkachuk and 5th OA is a solid offer.

- In term of pry away value? Who's going to do this for Lafreniere? He's like another Hughes or Dahlin, not another McDavid or Crosby. And I like Lafreniere a lot!

 

[Adam da bomb]

No way Lafreniere is worth Tkachuk, 5th OA, Brannstrom and Norris. I don't think the 1st gets traded and you would be a fool to think the Sens offer that much of their futures.

- In terms of value, Tkachuk and 5th OA is a solid offer.

- In term of pry away value? Who's going to do this for Lafreniere? He's like another Hughes or Dahlin, not another McDavid or Crosby.

Jets don’t need tkachuk is all. Wingers we have laine, Ehlers, Connor, wheeler. But decent offer. I’m not accepting Norriss over stutzle or Byfield. So if I’m giving up 10a I want 3oa and brannstrom and a second.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Jets don’t need tkachuk is all. Wingers we have laine, Ehlers, Connor, wheeler. But decent offer. I’m not accepting Norriss over stutzle or Byfield. So if I’m giving up 10a I want 3oa and brannstrom and a second.

3rd OA, Brannstrom, and a 2nd is fair in value. But man... this talk of a team trading that pick. Doubt it... even for the Jets. Keep Lafreniere and trade Ehlers for the D

 

[slimbob8]

3rd OA, Brannstrom, and a 2nd is fair in value. But man... this talk of a team trading that pick. Doubt it... even for the Jets. Keep Lafreniere and trade Ehlers for the D

3rd overall, Brannstrom and a 2nd is most definitely not enough for a team to trade away Laf. Go back and look at the 1st overall picks since 2004 and then look at the 3rd overall picks. In most cases the difference in value between the players taken at 1 and 3 is not even close to covered by adding a prospect of Brannstrom's level and a 2nd round pick. That's even before you factor in the marketing value adding a superstar like this adds to your team which in itself is worth a lot.

For the most part, the only exceptions where this pattern isn't followed is in years where we already knew the 1st overall pick wasn't as strong heading into the draft (RNH, Ekblad, Hischier, etc.) so it's not just a hindsight game. This isn't one of those years; Laf has the hype of a Matthews, Stamkos level player pre-draft.

 

[TML1967]

No way Lafreniere is worth Tkachuk, 5th OA, Brannstrom and Norris. I don't think the 1st gets traded and you would be a fool to think the Sens offer that much of their futures.

- In terms of value, Tkachuk and 5th OA is a solid offer.

- In term of pry away value? Who's going to do this for Lafreniere? He's like another Hughes or Dahlin, not another McDavid or Crosby. And I like Lafreniere a lot!

If im the Leafs, im tempted by Tkachuk +5th, and i push back for 5th+Tka+2nd or 3rd+tka.

 

[Habs Halifax]

3rd overall, Brannstrom and a 2nd is most definitely not enough for a team to trade away Laf. Go back and look at the 1st overall picks since 2004 and then look at the 3rd overall picks. In most cases the difference in value between the players taken at 1 and 3 is not even close to covered by adding a prospect of Brannstrom's level and a 2nd round pick. That's even before you factor in the marketing value adding a superstar like this adds to your team which in itself is worth a lot.

For the most part, the only exceptions where this pattern isn't followed is in years where we already knew the 1st overall pick wasn't as strong heading into the draft (RNH, Ekblad, Hischier, etc.) so it's not just a hindsight game. This isn't one of those years; Laf has the hype of a Matthews, Stamkos level player pre-draft.

Lafreniere does not have more hype vs Hughes or Dahlin IMO. Lafreniere to me is somewhere between Huberdeau and Ovi type of winger

 

[slimbob8]

Lafreniere does not have more hype vs Hughes or Dahlin IMO. Lafreniere to me is somewhere between Huberdeau and Ovi type of winger

Dahlin I agree had more hype; the guy was the most hyped d-man in ages. Laf definitely has more hype than Hughes though. And more than any of Ekblad, Hischier, RNH. Most years it's pretty obvious who's going 1st overall, but that doesn't stop the media from trying to create some drama around it and saying there's still a chance somebody else goes 1st. There's a reason there's been zero chatter like that this year though; it's because Laf is that good.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Dahlin I agree had more hype; the guy was the most hyped d-man in ages. Laf definitely has more hype than Hughes though. And more than any of Ekblad, Hischier, RNH. Most years it's pretty obvious who's going 1st overall, but that doesn't stop the media from trying to create some drama around it and saying there's still a chance somebody else goes 1st. There's a reason there's been zero chatter like that this year though; it's because Laf is that good.

Hughes was hyped pretty high bud. Lafreniere has a slight edge vs Hughes cause he dominated the WJC at 18 while Hughes did not.

 

[TML1967]

Lafreniere does not have more hype vs Hughes or Dahlin IMO. Lafreniere to me is somewhere between Huberdeau and Ovi type of winger

Wanted to take a look at the two guys you listed to see what that might look like, if he was the midpoint of the two.

Huberdeau, 27 y.o, 66 point average over his career, 84P average over last 3 seasons.

Ovi - 34 y.o, 91 point average over his career. 49.96 goal average over his career. Possibly the best goal scorer of all time.

If he is the midpoint of those two, thats 78.5 points or .957 ppg.
Or, top 80 all time in ppg.
Just above Neely, Kovalchuk, Tavares, Federov.

I assume you didnt mean hes exactly the mid point between the two, but the midpoint would make him a 1st ballot hall of fame guy in most books.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Wanted to take a look at the two guys you listed to see what that might look like, if he was the midpoint of the two.

Huberdeau, 27 y.o, 66 point average over his career, 84P average over last 3 seasons.

Ovi - 34 y.o, 91 point average over his career. 49.96 goal average over his career. Possibly the best goal scorer of all time.

If he is the midpoint of those two, thats 78.5 points or .957 ppg.
Or, top 80 all time in ppg.
Just above Neely, Kovalchuk, Tavares, Federov.

I assume you didnt mean hes exactly the mid point between the two, but the midpoint would make him a 1st ballot hall of fame guy in most books.

Could be closer to Huberdeau or closer to Ovi. It's a decent gap and more of a safe range prediction. Ovi dominated right away and Huberdeau did not. It's also possible Lafreniere needs a season or two before he is who we think he is.

Guess work. I like Lafreniere a lot but no way am I going to say he is the next great one for sure. 3rd OA, Brannstrom, and a 2nd is decent value but likely does not type the "pry-away value" for a team to consider it. Nobody would want to look like fools for trading Lafreniere and he becomes a star.

 

[slimbob8]

Hughes was hyped pretty high bud. Lafreniere has a slight edge vs Hughes cause he dominated the WJC at 18 while Hughes did not.

I'm not saying he wasn't hyped; of course he was. All 1st overall picks have a ton of hype around them. But I wouldn't say Hughes had anymore hype than your average top pick. Even if you just compare his USHL numbers in the same league to the guy that went 1st overall 3 years earlier (Matthews), they come up short. Same point totals, much fewer goals and that was comparing a draft year to a draft-1 year so I don't think there's an argument to be made he was hyped to that level.

You mention Hughes not dominating the WJC like that's not a massive factor in evaluating prospects. Players rise and drop significantly based on that tournament alone. Scouts put a ton of stock into that because it's the best measuring tool they have to compare best-on-best level of play as opposed to the leagues these guys play in where they're used to being far and away the best player on the ice most nights. Plus, Laf made team Canada as a 16 year old. Nobody does that. Two players (McDavid and Crosby) have made that team at that age in the last 19 years. He's obviously not at their level, but that in itself should show what sort of hype this guy has.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not saying he wasn't hyped; of course he was. All 1st overall picks have a ton of hype around them. But I wouldn't say Hughes had anymore hype than your average top pick. Even if you just compare his USHL numbers in the same league to the guy that went 1st overall 3 years earlier (Matthews), they come up short. Same point totals, much fewer goals and that was comparing a draft year to a draft-1 year so I don't think there's an argument to be made he was hyped to that level.

You mention Hughes not dominating the WJC like that's not a massive factor in evaluating prospects. Players rise and drop significantly based on that tournament alone. Scouts put a ton of stock into that because it's the best measuring tool they have to compare best-on-best level of play as opposed to the leagues these guys play in where they're used to being far and away the best player on the ice most nights. Plus, Laf made team Canada as a 16 year old. Nobody does that. Two players (McDavid and Crosby) have made that team at that age in the last 19 years. He's obviously not at their level, but that in itself should show what sort of hype this guy has.

Both the U18's and U20's WJC... Scouts do use those tournaments. Some fans say it's minor, some say it's major. I think it's a solid indicator and with the U18's canceled this past year, scouts are saying this draft is wide open from 15-50 ish.

I don't see any team trading that #1 OA pick. Who wants to look like fools if Lafreniere turns into a star?

If the pick is traded, value is hard to nail down and "pry away value" kicks in

 

[slimbob8]

Both the U18's and U20's WJC... Scouts do use those tournaments. Some fans say it's minor, some say it's major. I think it's a solid indicator and with the U18's canceled this past year, scouts are saying this draft is wide open from 15-50 ish.

I don't see any team trading that #1 OA pick. Who wants to look like fools if Lafreniere turns into a star?

If the pick is traded, value is hard to nail down and "pry away value" kicks in

Agreed. Fair value is one thing, but a player like this gets fans excited and puts seats in the stands even when wins are few and far between.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Agreed. Fair value is one thing, but a player like this gets fans excited and puts seats in the stands even when wins are few and far between.

We see it the same. Fair value is not the same as Pry away value. Nobody going to trade that #1OA for fair value cause what is fair? Some think Lafreniere is the next star on wing and some think he might take a while like Dahlin and Hughes after seeing their draft +1.

Nobody trading that pick. Some fans can say their team is all they want but their GM won't. If you do, the pry away value has to give you a piece like Tkachuk and the 5th OA and maybe more. But still, if you were the GM, you can't help but wonder what Lafreniere becomes and you might look like a fool if Tkachuk is a 60 pts power forward winger and the 5th busts.

 

[slimbob8]

We see it the same. Fair value is not the same as Pry away value. Nobody going to trade that #1OA for fair value cause what is fair? Some think Lafreniere is the next star on wing and some think he might take a while like Dahlin and Hughes after seeing their draft +1.

Nobody trading that pick. Some fans can say their team is all they want but their GM won't. If you do, the pry away value has to give you a piece like Tkachuk and the 5th OA and maybe more. But still, if you were the GM, you can't help but wonder what Lafreniere becomes and you might look like a fool if Tkachuk is a 60 pts power forward winger and the 5th busts.

Yep. The majority of the time the team picking 1st overall is a rebuilding team so what they're looking for is a building block to put in place and build their franchise around. IMO that's much more important than fair value so there's zero incentive to make the trade for lesser pieces.

I used to think that the only chance for a 1st overall pick to get traded is if a team that's already good wins the lottery since they're in win-now mode and might not want to wait until this player hits his prime. But most contending teams have minimal cap space available and we're learning over the last few years how valuable cap space is. Having a superstar player come in on an entry level deal is very valuable to a team in win-now mode so they have no incentive to move that pick either.

 

[treple13]

Flames do 1st overall and a small add for Brady and #5 (I don't expect Ottawa to do it though)

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

As a Flames fan if we luck out and get 1OV I would be very open to trading the pick. I’m not as high on Laf as most other people and I really like Stutzle. As others have said it would take 3&5 to do it. Of course I’d be open to something involving Tkachuk as well.

 

[Huffer]

As previously mentioned by others, the 1st overall just doesn't get moved very often. It would likely take a lot to get it. You're not getting that pick for players making large salaries in this environment, when the player picked at 1 is going to provide solid value on an ELC.

Even if the Jets got it, and really don't need another winger, I could see them taking Laf if no big offer comes along. A player like that on an ELC is a huge thing.

For me to move it, I'd want #3 for sure to draft a C, an unprotected 2021 1st round pick, and a 2022 1st round pick. Possibly add a clause that in 2022 if the Jets finish higher in the standings (and draft later), the picks are swapped. If the Sens finish higher the pick goes to the Jets.

Gives the Sens a big win on draft day 2020 (1st, 5th, the Isles pick, and 4 seconds). Sens would need to use cap space (owner I know) to improve the team to make the next 2 drafts not hurt as much.

Jets would get a C in the pipeline that they need, and possibly a D in 2021 as there seem to be a lot of good D available. 2022 is a wildcard.

 

[Adam da bomb]

As previously mentioned by others, the 1st overall just doesn't get moved very often. It would likely take a lot to get it. You're not getting that pick for players making large salaries in this environment, when the player picked at 1 is going to provide solid value on an ELC.

Even if the Jets got it, and really don't need another winger, I could see them taking Laf if no big offer comes along. A player like that on an ELC is a huge thing.

For me to move it, I'd want #3 for sure to draft a C, an unprotected 2021 1st round pick, and a 2022 1st round pick. Possibly add a clause that in 2022 if the Jets finish higher in the standings (and draft later), the picks are swapped. If the Sens finish higher the pick goes to the Jets.

Gives the Sens a big win on draft day 2020 (1st, 5th, the Isles pick, and 4 seconds). Sens would need to use cap space (owner I know) to improve the team to make the next 2 drafts not hurt as much.

Jets would get a C in the pipeline that they need, and possibly a D in 2021 as there seem to be a lot of good D available. 2022 is a wildcard.

Why get a D in 2021 when Ottawa can give Branstrom? Our window is now and Brannstrom seems more ready than a 2021 D. Also at some point they aren't going to bottom out so one of those first will be late.

 

[2-4 Slashin]

Yes, even with them in the mix.

Ask yourself what the incentive is for the team moving the 1st overall pick? To acquire a mid-1st, a 2nd, and a prospect that has 2nd/3rd line upside?

Not that I’d give up the 1OA but I think he also included the 3OA Pick as well. So in addition to those you would also get a likely 1C. Personally I’d take it if they switched the Isles pick for the 5OA but I’m not sure they’re ready to play with stakes that high.

 

[dahrougem2]

Not that I’d give up the 1OA but I think he also included the 3OA Pick as well. So in addition to those you would also get a likely 1C. Personally I’d take it if they switched the Isles pick for the 5OA but I’m not sure they’re ready to play with stakes that high.

I understand that that 3rd overall pick is in play. Many have pointed out that I've omitted the 3rd overall pick - I haven't.

The trade is to be looked at as purely a pick swap - 1st for 3rd overall. So then what does the team dropping down 2 places get as incentive?

If all that's going back is a mid/late 1st, a 2nd, and "good-not-great" prospect, there really isn't any incentive for the team with the 1st overall pick to move down.

 

[Korpse]

Holy f***

 

[Huffer]

Why get a D in 2021 when Ottawa can give Branstrom? Our window is now and Brannstrom seems more ready than a 2021 D. Also at some point they aren't going to bottom out so one of those first will be late.

Because there are D in the draft I like better than Brannstrom. I think there are also other options for the now. If the team can sign Demelo, the need for a RHD for right now is reduced. The flat cap should also offer a lot of players who will have to play for cheap. I like the idea of getting another quality piece in 2021 (either a D or even another C), and then having the possibility of an extra shot at a Wright or Lambert in 2022.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Because there are D in the draft I like better than Brannstrom. I think there are also other options for the now. If the team can sign Demelo, the need for a RHD for right now is reduced. The flat cap should also offer a lot of players who will have to play for cheap. I like the idea of getting another quality piece in 2021 (either a D or even another C), and then having the possibility of an extra shot at a Wright or Lambert in 2022.

How do Lambert or Wright compare to Laf? Also with the 1st and 5th I imagine Ottawa rebounds and that 2021 is pretty late.