Prospect Info: 17-18 Blues Top Prospect #2

[Splatter]

I think its just one vocal enthusiastic fan on these boards that is the main fuel for the hype train. At least until he makes it through a couple cuts at camp and starts to get positive reviews, then we can untrack this mother.

Well, I'm the one Blues fan voter in this poll and it's certainly not me leading any hype train. I've barely said a peep about Kostin. There's no set criteria for voting here. I think he has the greatest upside/potential/ceiling of any Blues prospect, and that's why I voted for him. I don't think that's unreasonable. I get why people are shy to vote for him because he's mostly an unknown commodity in North America, while guys like Barbie and Dunn have proven more given the opportunity. That's fine. Do with your vote what you will.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I've got Barbashev here. But I'd be lying it it wasn't basically a toss up between him and Walman.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Well, I'm the one Blues fan voter in this poll and it's certainly not me leading any hype train. I've barely said a peep about Kostin. There's no set criteria for voting here. I think he has the greatest upside/potential/ceiling of any Blues prospect, and that's why I voted for him. I don't think that's unreasonable. I get why people are shy to vote for him because he's mostly an unknown commodity in North America, while guys like Barbie and Dunn have proven more given the opportunity. That's fine. Do with your vote what you will.

I don't have any problem imagining that Kostin has the highest upside of any of our prospects, in fact I think that's very possible. But he has to adjust to NA ice, he has to learn a new language, he has to recover from a major injury and playing all of 14 games last season. Going into an uncertain AHL situation isn't going to help him. So, all of those things in mind, I'm going to value the development/experience factor a little more heavily towards the top of the list: I'm going for guys who check both boxes up here. High upside, good performances so far, and improvement over time (so, 3 boxes ).

I also think pretty highly of Thompson, so I'll probably end up ranking him ahead of Kostin too. But they really aren't separated by much imo. The grouping we had in camp of Kostin, Thompson, Walman, and Kyrou seemed pretty intuitively correct to me in terms of that top tier of prospects, once you add in Dunn, Husso, Sanford and Barbashev. So, that top group is ~7-8 deep at this point. Then tier 2 has guys like Blais, Thomas, Schmaltz, Toropchenko, Mikkola, Stevens, Musil and Fitzpatrick. Tier 3 is Krag, Opilka, Kaspick, Noel, Poganski, Bleackley, MacEachern, etc.

In general, that tiering system makes more sense to me than the pure ranking system. Or the Dangle Pyramid.

 

[execwrite]

I don't have any problem imagining that Kostin has the highest upside of any of our prospects, in fact I think that's very possible. But he has to adjust to NA ice, he has to learn a new language, he has to recover from a major injury and playing all of 14 games last season. Going into an uncertain AHL situation isn't going to help him. So, all of those things in mind, I'm going to value the development/experience factor a little more heavily towards the top of the list: I'm going for guys who check both boxes up here. High upside, good performances so far, and improvement over time (so, 3 boxes ).

I also think pretty highly of Thompson, so I'll probably end up ranking him ahead of Kostin too. But they really aren't separated by much imo. The grouping we had in camp of Kostin, Thompson, Walman, and Kyrou seemed pretty intuitively correct to me in terms of that top tier of prospects, once you add in Dunn, Husso, Sanford and Barbashev. So, that top group is ~7-8 deep at this point. Then tier 2 has guys like Blais, Thomas, Schmaltz, Toropchenko, Mikkola, Stevens, Musil and Fitzpatrick. Tier 3 is Krag, Opilka, Kaspick, Noel, Poganski, Bleackley, MacEachern, etc.

In general, that tiering system makes more sense to me than the pure ranking system. Or the Dangle Pyramid.

Yup, your groups look just right. Speaks well of the organization's depth.

 

[STL fan in MN]

The Blues have 10 prospects that I value fairly similarly (Dunn, Walman, Barbs, Kostin, Husso, Thomas, Thompson, Kyrou, Sanford and Schmaltz). Some have higher potential but others have higher likelihoods of reaching their potential and/or are safer bets for one reason or another. Musil, Mikkola, Blais and Stevens are solid too.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I can understand the sentiment that Thomas should be ranked higher than Kostin as he was taken 11 picks sooner just a week and a half ago but I can also see the point in some simply valuing Kostin more than Thomas. And yeah, Tarasenko was taken after Schwartz, Edmundson and Jaskin were taken after Rattie and Parayko was taken 2 rounds after Schmaltz. But it's only been a week and a half. Not much should change in a week and a half, right? Do we have any new info since June 26th? Actually, yes. We do. In that time, Kostin has gotten out of his KHL contract, signed an NHL contract and looked good in drills. It's not a ton but if all 31 teams could've gotten to put him through drills pre-draft like he just went through and they all knew he would absolutely get out of his KHL deal and sign an NHL deal right away, I think it's certainly conceivable that he likely would've gone a little higher. Just in the last week and a half, I'd say some of the risk surrounding Kostin has decreased.

That said, I really like Thomas too. He's a "safer" bet. Kostin is more exciting but that doesn't automatically mean he'll be the better player...but as of today, I personally value Kostin a bit more than Thomas.

 

[Splatter]

The Blues have 10 prospects that I value fairly similarly (Dunn, Walman, Barbs, Kostin, Husso, Thomas, Thompson, Kyrou, Sanford and Schmaltz). Some have higher potential but others have higher likelihoods of reaching their potential and/or are safer bets for one reason or another. Musil, Mikkola, Blais and Stevens are solid too.

The top ten seems set. The order is just questionable.

 

[Stealth JD]

Motion to make Walman #3 and move on to poll number four? Seems Barby, Dunn and Walman have accounted for about 90%+ of the total votes thus far. I can't see Thomas, Thompson, Husso or Kostin getting enough of a ground-swell to suddenly overtake Walman in the three-spot.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Motion to make Walman #3 and move on to poll number four? Seems Barby, Dunn and Walman have accounted for about 90%+ of the total votes thus far. I can't see Thomas, Thompson, Husso or Kostin getting enough of a ground-swell to suddenly overtake Walman in the three-spot.

Seconded

 

[2 Minute Minor]

Kind of denies Walman his thread of glory (and any developing discussion). Some of the people that didn't vote Walman, who might vote Walman #3 could give their views. I think that's what we'd miss....and I don't really see the rush here.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

Motion to make Walman #3 and move on to poll number four? Seems Barby, Dunn and Walman have accounted for about 90%+ of the total votes thus far. I can't see Thomas, Thompson, Husso or Kostin getting enough of a ground-swell to suddenly overtake Walman in the three-spot.

What if all 43 people that have voted Barbeshev for #2 have Kostin for #3?

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues have 10 prospects that I value fairly similarly (Dunn, Walman, Barbs, Kostin, Husso, Thomas, Thompson, Kyrou, Sanford and Schmaltz). Some have higher potential but others have higher likelihoods of reaching their potential and/or are safer bets for one reason or another. Musil, Mikkola, Blais and Stevens are solid too.

That's the best group of prospects I can ever remember the Blues having at one time. And add them to Tarasenko, Schwartz, Petro, Edmunson, Parayko, Schenn, Fabbri and Allen and Im very excited about the future.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I think I and I alone am this "hype train". It's just my opinion, man. It's fun to make these prediction after reading/watching so much. He's not the forward version of Parayko, but I remember being on the hype train for him very early on. I think as Blues fans in general we are slightly too cautious with tempering our enthusiasm over a player. I try to be objective, and objectively I see that Kostin could be in the NHL as early as this year - and I would be shocked if he wasn't next year.

 

[thedustman]

Wait, how did barbashev not win #1?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Because he's actually not that impressive - he's just over-hyped because he was the only (good) center prospect we had. I suppose if you're voting on NHL readiness he could be #1. But if that's really the critieria, then we should probably remove players that have played more than 20 games from the running.

 

[BlueDream]

Well let's cut the hypoerbole. I certainly would not say Barbashev is "not that impressive" or "overhyped". He produced pretty well offensively, played a physical game, and gave a lot of effort in the defensive zone as well. He clearly looks like he can be a well-rounded middle 6 center. Hopefully he can become a 2nd line guy. He has solid potential.

I just voted for Dunn 1st because I think he's our best prospect, I think he is going to be a top-pairing defenseman that plays with an edge, is a great skater who will provide offense, and be solid defensively as well. Basically the complete package which is one of the most valuable players you can get. And Walman is pretty similar.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Barbashev is definitely well-rounded. I just don't see the promise that others do. I think he will be a good 3C, but thinking he'll be better than a passable 2C is pushing it, imo. I don't see the offensive game that would make him good enough for a top 6 role. And unless he becomes excellent defensively, I wouldn't be surprised to see him max-out as a Berglund-ish center that is better offensively while being only somewhat noticeably worse defensively. Barbs just doesn't have the speed, shot, or vision to be a good top 6er in the modern NHL. By the time Barabashev is acclimated, I think the game that we want to play in the top 6 (and that the rest of the NHL is going to play) will have passed him up.

As with Kostin, I'm trying to be objective here. I just don't see the tools that translate to being a solid 2C in 2019. Whereas with Kostin I think he has all the ability, but just needs to find his niche as a scorer in order for him to stick at the NHL level soon, and then progress from there. Barbs just has far less room to grow, and his tools don't lend to growing in the directions that he would need to take the big step to being a solid top 6 player.

Just my opinion, but if someone wants an answer as to why Barb isn't getting lots of love for our top 3 prospects, I figured I would oblige. Even if other people don't view him like I do, I think his body of work and skill level (plus shiny new toy syndrome) all are solid reasons why he isn't receiving as much love.

 

[Evocable Manager]

Barbashev doesn't have the speed? He's one of the fastest skaters on the team and is faster than numerous established top 6 forwards.

Barbashev is very well balanced. I agree he won't be a top flight center, but a strong 2C certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Speed? Maybe in NHL '17. I don't remember ever saying to myself, "hey, this guy can move". He might be able to keep up with Tarasenko better than Lehtera, and maybe even Stastny (more due to playstyle, imo), but I never came away with an impression of speed. I think he has decent acceleration, and his skating in general isn't really problematic, but I wouldn't call him dynamic in any sense. Without a great shot, vision, or set of wheels, I don't think he can make it to being a good/decent 2C.

There might be slower NHL top-6 forwards than Barbs, but they usually have a great shot, vision, or at the very least elite defensive play. I don't forsee Barbashev checking any of those boxes. The game is only going to get faster in the future, and even current top-6 defensive talent will not be enough, imo. I suppose it's just a difference of opinion about the future of the NHL as much as it is about Barb's skill-set.

 

[Majorityof1]

Barbashev is definitely well-rounded. I just don't see the promise that others do. I think he will be a good 3C, but thinking he'll be better than a passable 2C is pushing it, imo. I don't see the offensive game that would make him good enough for a top 6 role. And unless he becomes excellent defensively, I wouldn't be surprised to see him max-out as a Berglund-ish center that is better offensively while being only somewhat noticeably worse defensively. Barbs just doesn't have the speed, shot, or vision to be a good top 6er in the modern NHL. By the time Barabashev is acclimated, I think the game that we want to play in the top 6 (and that the rest of the NHL is going to play) will have passed him up.

As with Kostin, I'm trying to be objective here. I just don't see the tools that translate to being a solid 2C in 2019. Whereas with Kostin I think he has all the ability, but just needs to find his niche as a scorer in order for him to stick at the NHL level soon, and then progress from there. Barbs just has far less room to grow, and his tools don't lend to growing in the directions that he would need to take the big step to being a solid top 6 player.

Just my opinion, but if someone wants an answer as to why Barb isn't getting lots of love for our top 3 prospects, I figured I would oblige. Even if other people don't view him like I do, I think his body of work and skill level (plus shiny new toy syndrome) all are solid reasons why he isn't receiving as much love.

I am sorry. I can't take this kind of analysis seriously when you are named after Lehtera and thought he would be a stud. He doesn't have the speed or shot to be top 6 but Lehtera did? Maybe if he made more drop passes for turnovers, we could call that vision.

 

[Blues0307]

I think I and I alone am this "hype train". It's just my opinion, man. It's fun to make these prediction after reading/watching so much. He's not the forward version of Parayko, but I remember being on the hype train for him very early on. I think as Blues fans in general we are slightly too cautious with tempering our enthusiasm over a player. I try to be objective, and objectively I see that Kostin could be in the NHL as early as this year - and I would be shocked if he wasn't next year.

Agree with this. Even when it came to high-end talent like Tarasenko, most were only willing to call him a future top 6. People are very cautious to say any of our prospects are legit 1st line forwards or 1st pairing D-man.

As for the vote, I went with Thomas. I see higher upside than most do. A lot of people have been characterizing him as a high-floor, low-ceiling type player, but as he adds strength, I think he can improve his skating enough to become a low-end 1C to high-end 2C. His vision, agility, and hockey sense will be his strengths. If he is able to develop his wrist shot and improve his speed, he'll be a difficult player to play against.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I am sorry. I can't take this kind of analysis seriously when you are named after Lehtera and thought he would be a stud. He doesn't have the speed or shot to be top 6 but Lehtera did? Maybe if he made more drop passes for turnovers, we could call that vision.

You're right. I was wrong about Lehtera and now Barbashev will be a for-sure 2C. I can see we are both equally skilled at analysis.

In my defense, Lehtera showed decent hands, great vision, an under-rated if unspectacular defensive game, and ostensibly used to be faster. He was also first acquired when the NHL was slower than it will be in 2019, and that's when I think Barb will be a 100% full-timer. Lehtera also had previous experience with Tarasenko, and I named myself (I believe) before Lahtera's first NHL season even began, so I was right for 30 games when most were expecting less. I also gave up on Lehtera before the end of October this year, and had given up on him being the solution for Tarasenko as soon as last off-season.

But I don't want to be in the business of keeping score - otherwise I'd just start my own thread or bring up other's past mistakes without actually addressing the point.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Agree with this. Even when it came to high-end talent like Tarasenko, most were only willing to call him a future top 6. People are very cautious to say any of our prospects are legit 1st line forwards or 1st pairing D-man.

As for the vote, I went with Thomas. I see higher upside than most do. A lot of people have been characterizing him as a high-floor, low-ceiling type player, but as he adds strength, I think he can improve his skating enough to become a low-end 1C to high-end 2C. His vision, agility, and hockey sense will be his strengths. If he is able to develop his wrist shot and improve his speed, he'll be a difficult player to play against.

I haven't seen enough of Thomas to know if he can become a very good 2C/capable 1C (better than Stastny offensively and worse defensively is my first reaction to him), but I keep becoming more intrigued the more I watch/read. I definitely like his skill-set now more than Barbs when it comes to being a dynamic center, but I need to watch more before I can feel confident in a bolder prediction

 

[BlueDream]

I don't know man, it's really hard to take you seriously. IMO you are really biased with your Kostin love, that you are saying some things about Barbashev that are questionable to say the least.

He's absolutely a good skater. He's not Paajarvi-fast but he's got fine speed. He's nowhere near slow like Berglund.

He was on pace for about 30 points in a full 82-game season as a 21-year old. I am not sure how his offensive game "isn't there." It's coming along just fine. You're just writing him off as saying he doesn't have this, he doesn't have that. This is a little ridiculous. How many 21-year olds are elite defensively? The answer is none. Give him some time to learn.

And I do think you are lashing out at him because other people aren't as high on Kostin as you are. It's the only thing that makes sense to me. You're pumping his tires like crazy when he hasn't proven anything.

 

[Majorityof1]

You're right. I was wrong about Lehtera and now Barbashev will be a for-sure 2C. I can see we are both equally skilled at analysis.

In my defense, Lehtera showed decent hands, great vision, an under-rated if unspectacular defensive game, and ostensibly used to be faster. He was also first acquired when the NHL was slower than it will be in 2019, and that's when I think Barb will be a 100% full-timer. Lehtera also had previous experience with Tarasenko, and I named myself (I believe) before Lahtera's first NHL season even began, so I was right for 30 games when most were expecting less. I also gave up on Lehtera before the end of October this year, and had given up on him being the solution for Tarasenko as soon as last off-season.

But I don't want to be in the business of keeping score - otherwise I'd just start my own thread or bring up other's past mistakes without actually addressing the point.

I never said Barbashev will be a for sure 2C, just that he has the skill set. Lehtera did not. He entered the league when it was slower? Lol. Was there a speed revolution in the past 3 years? Teams are putting more of a premium on speed but slow in 2014 and slow in 2019 are the same thing, as its mostly the same players still playing.

And how can I address the point when you say he's slow. They don't list blue line to blue line times for all the players to compare them. I think Barbashev has above average speed, but I can't prove that. So instead I point out that you are very poor at judging center talent. And the hypocricy of saying Barbashev doesn't have the speed to be a top 6, but continuing to believe that Lehtera did until October of this past year.