Prospect Info: 17-18 Blues Top Prospect #2

[Majorityof1]

While I agree with that assessment, I do have to ask what do you mean that Allen wasn't adjusting to NA ice. He's Canadian, QMJHL uses NA size ice.

Exactly, he was NOT having to make adjustments like Husso does. Husso has the added challenge of needing to adjust his all his angles and spot marks in addition to playing against increased competition. Allen only had to worry about the increase in competition. So Husso was facing a major adjustment, playing in his first AHL playoffs, didn't even have a full year of consistent practice with the goalie shuffling and a year younger. Allen was the de facto starter all year, played his entire career on NA ice, and was a year more mature, yet he still struggled in his first AHL playoffs.

So I meant Allen didn't need to adjust because he was already adjusted whereas Husso has the added challenge. I didn't word that very clearly.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I give Walman a slight edge due to slightly higher potential than Barbashev and being more NHL ready than Husso.

 

[tfriede2]

Toss-up between Barbashev and Walman, but went Walman.

 

[yogintheaveragebears]

I feel like, from year to year, we as fans put different emphasize at the beginning of the year. Last year we traded Ells and were uncertain of our goalie situation so our number one prospect in a goalie. Jake has reassured us as fans the crease is his so we no longer have an obsession with our very good goalie prospect. Same goes for this year very unsure of our ld and c positions so were putting more stock into those prospects. But this is not to say they are not deserving as high rated prospects as they very much are.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Including Goalies I could see the argument that Husso is anywhere from our #3 best guy to all the way to #7. It's hard to get excited about goalies, and European ones have a lot to adjust to and are hard to watch until they move over. I think Husso deserves more love and I would give him it if I was able to watch him dominate in Europe more. Seeing him in the AHL has me picking others over him based on readiness. I still think he's our next backup by at least the beginning of the '19-'20 season due to management wanting him to get more starts in the AHL while still being ready by the season previous.

Walman is ready, or at least close to it, and I know more about our other guys. I think after voting Klim as #3 I'll have a really hard time picking between Husso and the rest at 4

 

[Majorityof1]

This is not just directed at Lehterasenkshow, but anyone really. And maybe its too early to discuss, as I don't want to sway a future vote. But seeing how few people listen to me, I'll go ahead because I am curious. I see a few people considering and even voting for Klim Kostin already. How can you rank Klim above Thomas, when our team just picked Thomas ahead of Kostin?

Do you disagree with our decision at 20, given we didn't know if Klim would still be on the board at 27, much less trading 27 not knowing if he'd be there at 31. I don't like arguments that appeal to authority, but it our amateur scouts have a pretty good track record. I trust Bill Armstrong when it comes to picks. Even if he isn't perfect, he is pretty good. So if they took Thomas, I am inclined to think he's the better prospect, even if my own eye test says differently (which it doesn't).

I am just curious how those rating Kostin higher than Thomas justify it. To me, some of the hype Kostin is getting is ridiculous and really seemingly without justification. He is a great prospect, and I am intrigued by his combination of size, speed and skill. But he has a lot to put together before I consider him a sure-fire superstar.

 

[rumrokh]

This is not just directed at Lehterasenkshow, but anyone really. And maybe its too early to discuss, as I don't want to sway a future vote. But seeing how few people listen to me, I'll go ahead because I am curious. I see a few people considering and even voting for Klim Kostin already. How can you rank Klim above Thomas, when our team just picked Thomas ahead of Kostin?

Do you disagree with our decision at 20, given we didn't know if Klim would still be on the board at 27, much less trading 27 not knowing if he'd be there at 31. I don't like arguments that appeal to authority, but it our amateur scouts have a pretty good track record. I trust Bill Armstrong when it comes to picks. Even if he isn't perfect, he is pretty good. So if they took Thomas, I am inclined to think he's the better prospect, even if my own eye test says differently (which it doesn't).

I am just curious how those rating Kostin higher than Thomas justify it. To me, some of the hype Kostin is getting is ridiculous and really seemingly without justification. He is a great prospect, and I am intrigued by his combination of size, speed and skill. But he has a lot to put together before I consider him a sure-fire superstar.

I don't rate Kostin above Thomas, but you could easily look at this as a Schwartz-Tarasenko situation. Draft position could be relative to perceived availability rather than player quality. I think it's pretty simplistic it say welp, 20 and 31, that must be analogous to what the scouts think. The Blues, themselves, could have them ranked as identical prospects and simply default to the center.

I'm also interested in some justification for such choices, but regardless of the rationale you hear, there are a lot of reasonable possibilities.

 

[Majorityof1]

I don't rate Kostin above Thomas, but you could easily look at this as a Schwartz-Tarasenko situation. Draft position could be relative to perceived availability rather than player quality. I think it's pretty simplistic it say welp, 20 and 31, that must be analogous to what the scouts think. The Blues, themselves, could have them ranked as identical prospects and simply default to the center.

I'm also interested in some justification for such choices, but regardless of the rationale you hear, there are a lot of reasonable possibilities.

Agreed. There are definitely reasons for picking Kostin over Thomas, and our scouts may have even felt that way (given the # of picks between them, I'd say they preferred Thomas but who knows). I just think that the situation warrants a bit of an explanation. In this process, I am just as interested in why people pick who they do rather than who they pick. Both because its psychologically interesting to see how people think, but also to separate the wheat from the chaff. Who actually has some knowledge of the prospects and who is just regurgitating/creating hype/hate. I get some of that from just having been on the board and seeing peoples track records, but more information is always better.

 

[yogintheaveragebears]

the draft isnt always necessarily best player available but when you can get said player for example see parayko

 

[kimzey59]

This is not just directed at Lehterasenkshow, but anyone really. And maybe its too early to discuss, as I don't want to sway a future vote. But seeing how few people listen to me, I'll go ahead because I am curious. I see a few people considering and even voting for Klim Kostin already. How can you rank Klim above Thomas, when our team just picked Thomas ahead of Kostin?

Do you disagree with our decision at 20, given we didn't know if Klim would still be on the board at 27, much less trading 27 not knowing if he'd be there at 31. I don't like arguments that appeal to authority, but it our amateur scouts have a pretty good track record. I trust Bill Armstrong when it comes to picks. Even if he isn't perfect, he is pretty good. So if they took Thomas, I am inclined to think he's the better prospect, even if my own eye test says differently (which it doesn't).

I am just curious how those rating Kostin higher than Thomas justify it. To me, some of the hype Kostin is getting is ridiculous and really seemingly without justification. He is a great prospect, and I am intrigued by his combination of size, speed and skill. But he has a lot to put together before I consider him a sure-fire superstar.

I think part of it depends on how you define "better".

Thomas has a very linear projection. He doesn't have many adjustments to make in terms of Language/culture. He won't have as much difficulty adjusting to rink size/game speed. He didn't have an injury clouding his season. And he certainly doesn't have a Competing Pro League bidding for his services(that has a history of going stupid with contracts in deliberate efforts to "steal" players from the NHL). His path to the NHL is pretty much a straight line, and that makes for an extremely easy development path.

Kostin does have all of those off ice warts to deal overcome. His development path has the potential to take all kinds of twists and turns and any of those twists can derail him, hold him back or make him flame out completely.

That said, Kostin is also far more talented than Thomas. Thomas might be a slightly better skater, but Kostin is bigger, has a better shot, is a far better puck handler and has true game breaking offensive skill.

This is a perfect example of a "safe" pick" versus a "homerun" pick.
Thomas doesn't have as much upside; but he has very low bust potential.
Kostin has much higher upside; but he also has much higher bust potential.

With Kostin getting out of his KHL contract and committing to playing in NA, he's addressed a big chunk of his potential downsides. That puts the overall focus more on their upside potential; and Kostin trounces Thomas in that category.

 

[Robb_K]

I picked Walman here. He and Dunn are very close. And Barbashev is right up there, too, because he has already shown he is capable of playing at a high level in The NHL. Kostin is not too far behind, due to having all the tools, and, thus, a high upside potential. But, he is unproven at high levels.

 

[Renard]

Maybe it's just me, but does this feel like the deepest the Blues prospect pool has been since the rebuild? We just took two guys who had legitimate claims as top 20 prospects in the draft, and there is a good chance they none of them come in the top 4.

That's the way I see it. We have some exciting prospects on defense, forward and in goal. Its fun to speculate about the Blues roster in 2018-2019.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

I picked Walman here. He and Dunn are very close. And Barbashev is right up there, too, because he has already shown he is capable of playing at a high level in The NHL. Kostin is not too far behind, due to having all the tools, and, thus, a high upside potential. But, he is unproven at high levels.

That is why I went with Barbs, he has already shown he can play in the league.

 

[dave_no]

Schmaltz dropped so heavy, that he has zero votes? Dunn, Walman over him...

 

[STL fan in MN]

Sticking with Walman.

 

[medkit]

How can you rank Klim above Thomas, when our team just picked Thomas ahead of Kostin?

No way around this IMO. It would be silly if people got so contrarian that they got flipped in the voting.

I've gone Walman for this vote, and would go Barbashev for the next.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

I'm not too surprised Vince Dunn won the top spot by a lot.

I think most people have everyone grouped fairly close together. There's no Tarasenko or Pietrangelo in this group where they were top 5 ranked draft prospects, have performed well in the minors, and you just know you've got a future stud on your hands.

Dunn just seems like the best combination of being drafted high enough(2nd round), doing very well in the minors, and having a strong skill set. He also has youth on his side being just 20 years old. That makes his AHL performance look even more impressive and makes you think "well if he is THIS good at 20, how good will he be in 2-3 years when he has more strength and experience?!!"

Barbeshev is more of the safe bet. He has shown he can handle the NHL as a center. He doesn't possess a skill set that makes you think top line center, though, so you aren't going to dream as big with him.

Walman isn't far behind these guys but it is difficult for me to put him ahead of Dunn and Barbeshev. His skill set doesn't scream that he will be better like a 20 year old Pietrangelo's would. And he doesn't have the AHL/NHL success the other two have.

Kostin is the hot new prospect that has everyone dreaming big but to vote him higher than Dunn would be a huge leap of faith. Same goes for Thomas, Kyrou, and Thompson.

Overall, the Blues system is really in great shape. We lack the top 10 NHL prospect like we had in EJ, Petro, and Tank but we are loaded with a lot of guys that seem to have a great chance at becoming NHL players. This is an exciting system. Bill Armstrong and company have done a great job.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Struggled to choose between Walman and Barbie. Went with Walman because I think he has a higher ceiling, and if it came down to a trade between the two, I'd choose Barbashev first.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

This is not just directed at Lehterasenkshow, but anyone really. And maybe its too early to discuss, as I don't want to sway a future vote. But seeing how few people listen to me, I'll go ahead because I am curious. I see a few people considering and even voting for Klim Kostin already. How can you rank Klim above Thomas, when our team just picked Thomas ahead of Kostin?

Do you disagree with our decision at 20, given we didn't know if Klim would still be on the board at 27, much less trading 27 not knowing if he'd be there at 31. I don't like arguments that appeal to authority, but it our amateur scouts have a pretty good track record. I trust Bill Armstrong when it comes to picks. Even if he isn't perfect, he is pretty good. So if they took Thomas, I am inclined to think he's the better prospect, even if my own eye test says differently (which it doesn't).

I am just curious how those rating Kostin higher than Thomas justify it. To me, some of the hype Kostin is getting is ridiculous and really seemingly without justification. He is a great prospect, and I am intrigued by his combination of size, speed and skill. But he has a lot to put together before I consider him a sure-fire superstar.

This is Schwartz v. Tarasenko part 2.

IMO, we took the guy at 20 that we thought would have a better chance of actually playing for the Blues. Both could just turn out to be busts but only one player has a smaller chance of never even playing in the NHL even if he became a stud.

With Kostin and Tarasenko, there had to be SOME doubt that we could even get them over to this country. Otherwise Tarsenko goes top 5 picks and Kostin goes top 15-18 picks.

That Kostin might not come over to the NHL would also scare away teams from picking him in the 20-30 range. So we probably felt we had a better chance of landing Kostin than Thomas at 27.

There's a lot of planning that goes into the draft process. It isn't completely about taking BPA.

I do think the hype train is out of control on Kostin, though. He's in the 4-6 range for me until he plays more games. Love the potential but there's little in the way of results right now. A year from now he could be #1, though.

 

[Edgar Carrow]

This is Schwartz v. Tarasenko part 2.

IMO, we took the guy at 20 that we thought would have a better chance of actually playing for the Blues. Both could just turn out to be busts but only one player has a smaller chance of never even playing in the NHL even if he became a stud.

With Kostin and Tarasenko, there had to be SOME doubt that we could even get them over to this country. Otherwise Tarsenko goes top 5 picks and Kostin goes top 15-18 picks.

That Kostin might not come over to the NHL would also scare away teams from picking him in the 20-30 range. So we probably felt we had a better chance of landing Kostin than Thomas at 27.

There's a lot of planning that goes into the draft process. It isn't completely about taking BPA.

I do think the hype train is out of control on Kostin, though. He's in the 4-6 range for me until he plays more games. Love the potential but there's little in the way of results right now. A year from now he could be #1, though.

He has 3 votes and only one of those comes from a Blues' fan.

 

[TK 421]

Schmaltz dropped so heavy, that he has zero votes? Dunn, Walman over him...

Dunn and Walman both distinguished themselves post draft in a way that Schmaltz has yet to do. Walman nearly won a Hobey as a sophomore defenseman and Dunn was an AHL All Star as a 1st year pro. So tell me, what had Schmaltz done to deserve being ranked above them?

 

[2 Minute Minor]

He has 3 votes and only one of those comes from a Blues' fan.

I think its just one vocal enthusiastic fan on these boards that is the main fuel for the hype train. At least until he makes it through a couple cuts at camp and starts to get positive reviews, then we can untrack this mother.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

Dunn and Walman both distinguished themselves post draft in a way that Schmaltz has yet to do. Walman nearly won a Hobey as a sophomore defenseman and Dunn was an AHL All Star as a 1st year pro. So tell me, what had Schmaltz done to deserve being ranked above them?

Its a lot less about Schmaltz falling than it is those two guys shooting up, with likely higher ceilings than we had previously projected.

That prospect pool looks more exciting and robust than it has in a looong time.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

He has 3 votes and only one of those comes from a Blues' fan.

I mean the comments following the draft.

Maybe it's just one or two crazy people but I read quite a few comments that were a little of control.

I'm excited about Kostin, too, but I'm trying to remain realistic.

 

[Majorityof1]

I mean the comments following the draft.

Maybe it's just one or two crazy people but I read quite a few comments that were a little of control.

I'm excited about Kostin, too, but I'm trying to remain realistic.

Some of the comments after the draft, one particular poster being very complimentary, and a few different people listing him as an honorable mention or close second to whoever they picked (with no mention of Thomas). There is definitely an undercurrent that many fans are much more excited about Kostin than Thomas. As I said, it was probably too early to bring it up, but it was on my mind from the few mentions.