Line Combos: 15/16 forward lines

[Mortimer Snerd]

We have 40.5m signed for 2016-2017. How does it go to 76m?
14.5 for Ladd and Buff and 2.5 for Lowry, 4.5 for Scheif and 6 for Trouba still leaves us at 68m.

2016/2017
Low High
Ladd $6,000,000 $6,750,000
Little $4,700,000 $4,700,000
Wheeler $5,600,000 $5,600,000
Perreault $3,000,000 $3,000,000
Scheifele $3,000,000 $5,500,000
Stafford $4,350,000 $4,350,000
Lowry $1,800,000 $2,500,000
Thorburm $1,200,000 $1,200,000
Burmistrov $1,550,000 $1,550,000
Ehlers $1,394,167 $1,394,167
Copp $925,000 $925,000
Armia $1,500,000 $1,800,000
Petan $863,333 $863,333
Peluso $675,000 $675,000
14 Forwards

Enstrom $5,750,000 $5,750,000
Myers $5,500,000 $5,500,000
Chiarot $850,000 $850,000
Byfuglien $6,500,000 $7,500,000
Stuart $2,625,000 $2,625,000
Trouba $3,500,000 $6,000,000
Postma $887,500 $887,500
Morrissey $1,394,167 $1,394,167
8 Defense


Pavelec $3,900,000 $3,900,000
Hutchinson $900,000 $1,500,000
2 Goalies
23 Players
$68,364,167 $76,714,167

Sorry its hard to read. I don't know how to insert a table here. A lot of the numbers are precisely fixed by existing contracts. Bonus commitments are included. The 2 numbers for each player are a low and a high estimate.

Edit: I just realized I have 24 players listed. Put Peluso on waivers.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just can't see this organization wanting to walk a tight rope of just staying under the cap for years to come. Not their style at all.

We've got a bunch of prospects that should be coming up & demanding decent paychecks as their ELCs expire. Given that, I can see us giving Ladd 5-6 more years because as he declines he should remain useful in some capacity.

Buff is often a liability already -- giving him an Extra 4 is a big gamble already far from 5-6. If they do, just hope its for <6 mil, and a front heavy contract with few limits to trade him down the road should they need the cap room.

TBH I struggle a bit with taking this long view with the Buff contract issue. We argue here a bit about just what his NET worth to the team is, the good offense, defensive liability side vs the good offense and good defense side. That illegal curve 'value of Buff' thread from a couple of days ago left out a few things I thought but it was really a pretty good sales pitch for Buff. I expect the truth is somewhere in between the 2 sides of the argument. That makes Buff an outstanding player. When building a team he is the type you should strive for so I lean towards keeping him. Then I look at how much we have tied up in a lopsided top 4 D and swing back to moving him. If we switch a RHD to the left side does it help? Some but it doesn't change the cap situation. Is Buff a key piece in our building process or is he a luxury we can't afford? Is he a great player but not worth his contract?

If we eliminate one of our bigger salaries it might avoid the cap crunch altogether or it might only postpone it a couple of years. It gets pretty hard trying to project too far in advance. My best guess is that by eliminating one now we are much more able to manage it longer term. Larger contracts expire as young players are reaching the larger contract stage. Assuming we succeed at becoming a contender we will have to trade a player we would rather keep from time to time. I'm seeing Buff as the first of those.

I really don't envy Chevy this decision. The arguments are pretty strong on both sides.

 

[KingBogo]

2016/2017
Low High
Ladd $6,000,000 $6,750,000
Little $4,700,000 $4,700,000
Wheeler $5,600,000 $5,600,000
Perreault $3,000,000 $3,000,000
Scheifele $3,000,000 $5,500,000
Stafford $4,350,000 $4,350,000
Lowry $1,800,000 $2,500,000
Thorburm $1,200,000 $1,200,000
Burmistrov $1,550,000 $1,550,000
Ehlers $1,394,167 $1,394,167
Copp $925,000 $925,000
Armia $1,500,000 $1,800,000
Petan $863,333 $863,333
Peluso $675,000 $675,000
14 Forwards

Enstrom $5,750,000 $5,750,000
Myers $5,500,000 $5,500,000
Chiarot $850,000 $850,000
Byfuglien $6,500,000 $7,500,000
Stuart $2,625,000 $2,625,000
Trouba $3,500,000 $6,000,000
Postma $887,500 $887,500
Morrissey $1,394,167 $1,394,167
8 Defense


Pavelec $3,900,000 $3,900,000
Hutchinson $900,000 $1,500,000
2 Goalies
23 Players
$68,364,167 $76,714,167

Sorry its hard to read. I don't know how to insert a table here. A lot of the numbers are precisely fixed by existing contracts. Bonus commitments are included. The 2 numbers for each player are a low and a high estimate.

Edit: I just realized I have 24 players listed. Put Peluso on waivers.

Nice breakdown Mort. My guess is we end up right in the middle somewhere.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nice breakdown Mort. My guess is we end up right in the middle somewhere.

My guess too. A little above middle actually, ~73-74 mil. The cap is an unknown right now. I even heard someone talk about it going down. Lets say 72.5-73 as a working number. That's tight.

 

[buggs]

My guess too. A little above middle actually, ~73-74 mil. The cap is an unknown right now. I even heard someone talk about it going down. Lets say 72.5-73 as a working number. That's tight.

It is feasible that it goes down. Canadian dollar will drive the cap for the short term. I expect expansion might give it some boost if Vegas and Quebec come into the league but I wouldn't think much.

Until the Saudis stop messing with the price of oil, the Canadian dollar is going to be lower than the league would like. The federal election may or may not help much. Just too much league revenue dependent on Canadian team revenues and the Canadian television contract and all that is Canuckbucks.

 

[KingBogo]

It is feasible that it goes down. Canadian dollar will drive the cap for the short term. I expect expansion might give it some boost if Vegas and Quebec come into the league but I wouldn't think much.

Until the Saudis stop messing with the price of oil, the Canadian dollar is going to be lower than the league would like. The federal election may or may not help much. Just too much league revenue dependent on Canadian team revenues and the Canadian television contract and all that is Canuckbucks.

That will be a few years off. My understanding is the actual expansion fees aren't considered HRR so they won't impact the cap in the short term.

 

[buggs]

That will be a few years off. My understanding is the actual expansion fees aren't considered HRR so they won't impact the cap in the short term.

Yeah, I didn't know if they'd matter or not, so I'll happily defer to the notion they don't count.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It is feasible that it goes down. Canadian dollar will drive the cap for the short term. I expect expansion might give it some boost if Vegas and Quebec come into the league but I wouldn't think much.

Until the Saudis stop messing with the price of oil, the Canadian dollar is going to be lower than the league would like. The federal election may or may not help much. Just too much league revenue dependent on Canadian team revenues and the Canadian television contract and all that is Canuckbucks.

Is the Canadian TV contract in $C or $ US?

 

[Board Bard]

Is the Canadian TV contract in $C or $ US?

Someone on 1290 (a guest IIRC) said a while ago that it's C$.

 

[voyageur]

2016/2017
Low High
Ladd $6,000,000 $6,750,000
Little $4,700,000 $4,700,000
Wheeler $5,600,000 $5,600,000
Perreault $3,000,000 $3,000,000
Scheifele $3,000,000 $5,500,000
Stafford $4,350,000 $4,350,000
Lowry $1,800,000 $2,500,000
Thorburm $1,200,000 $1,200,000
Burmistrov $1,550,000 $1,550,000
Ehlers $1,394,167 $1,394,167
Copp $925,000 $925,000
Armia $1,500,000 $1,800,000
Petan $863,333 $863,333
Peluso $675,000 $675,000
14 Forwards

Enstrom $5,750,000 $5,750,000
Myers $5,500,000 $5,500,000
Chiarot $850,000 $850,000
Byfuglien $6,500,000 $7,500,000
Stuart $2,625,000 $2,625,000
Trouba $3,500,000 $6,000,000
Postma $887,500 $887,500
Morrissey $1,394,167 $1,394,167
8 Defense


Pavelec $3,900,000 $3,900,000
Hutchinson $900,000 $1,500,000
2 Goalies
23 Players
$68,364,167 $76,714,167

Sorry its hard to read. I don't know how to insert a table here. A lot of the numbers are precisely fixed by existing contracts. Bonus commitments are included. The 2 numbers for each player are a low and a high estimate.

Edit: I just realized I have 24 players listed. Put Peluso on waivers.

Interesting synopsis, and I think it captures the difficulty Chevy faces. Should he make long term investments (4 year plus contracts) for Trouba and Scheif or choose the bridge contract route, with a smaller payout, but which leads to a greater contract value, conceivably, as the players hit their prime, down the road, and the realistic possibility of a holdout (Trouba would be a concern for me)?

Taking Pavs off the books, should Helleybuck emerge this year is some relief. I think Enstrom could be moved (for a cheaper version of himself, given that he is paid currently at a scale of someone who should be a leader of the PP and a top PK minute muncher, but is neither), if we want to keep Buff long term, especially if his health is an ongoing concern, and Morrissey develops rapidly.

 

[Whileee]

I think this tidbit might fit here....

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Corsi For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 54.3% (4th in NHL)
Period 2: 53.9% (5th)
Period 3: 52.1% (13th)

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Goals For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 65.0% (1st in NHL)
Period 2: 52.9% (8th)
Period 3: 45.3% (23rd)

Maurice has focused a lot on conditioning, but it certainly looks like the Jets tend to fade as the games go on, particularly in the 3rd period. I think it gives the strong suggestion that the Jets need to strengthen the 4th line and use it more during the games. Conditioning is important, but the Jets need better depth too if they want to sustain their heavy and aggressive style through 60 minutes and 82 games.

 

[NBjet]

I think this tidbit might fit here....

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Corsi For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 54.3% (4th in NHL)
Period 2: 53.9% (5th)
Period 3: 52.1% (13th)

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Goals For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 65.0% (1st in NHL)
Period 2: 52.9% (8th)
Period 3: 45.3% (23rd)

Maurice has focused a lot on conditioning, but it certainly looks like the Jets tend to fade as the games go on, particularly in the 3rd period. I think it gives the strong suggestion that the Jets need to strengthen the 4th line and use it more during the games. Conditioning is important, but the Jets need better depth too if they want to sustain their heavy and aggressive style through 60 minutes and 82 games.

That is interesting. We do indeed need a effective 4th line to get to the next level and I think we will finally have the pieces to do just that...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting synopsis, and I think it captures the difficulty Chevy faces. Should he make long term investments (4 year plus contracts) for Trouba and Scheif or choose the bridge contract route, with a smaller payout, but which leads to a greater contract value, conceivably, as the players hit their prime, down the road, and the realistic possibility of a holdout (Trouba would be a concern for me)?

Taking Pavs off the books, should Helleybuck emerge this year is some relief. I think Enstrom could be moved (for a cheaper version of himself, given that he is paid currently at a scale of someone who should be a leader of the PP and a top PK minute muncher, but is neither), if we want to keep Buff long term, especially if his health is an ongoing concern, and Morrissey develops rapidly.

I sometimes forget that moving Buff's salary is not the only option. It is the most obvious one but there are more. Chevy chose Staff for 2 years over Frolik for 4+. If he wants to keep Buff and decides to sign Scheif and Trouba long term he may move Stafford earlier. I still don't see any way to move Enstrom even ignoring his NMC unless we somehow acquire a replacement. I suppose that if Buff (or Trouba) moves to the left we could have him as our 1LD. I don't think Myers is a candidate to move. He relies on his reach and his long stick a lot. You don't want to limit his effectiveness by putting his stick on the wrong side.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think this tidbit might fit here....

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Corsi For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 54.3% (4th in NHL)
Period 2: 53.9% (5th)
Period 3: 52.1% (13th)

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Goals For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 65.0% (1st in NHL)
Period 2: 52.9% (8th)
Period 3: 45.3% (23rd)

Maurice has focused a lot on conditioning, but it certainly looks like the Jets tend to fade as the games go on, particularly in the 3rd period. I think it gives the strong suggestion that the Jets need to strengthen the 4th line and use it more during the games. Conditioning is important, but the Jets need better depth too if they want to sustain their heavy and aggressive style through 60 minutes and 82 games.

Very interesting Whileee. Then add in how we lost 4 straight playoff games, 3 of them we lead to open the 3rd. It is telling.

I think it is also an argument in favour of signing Stempniak. He could make a huge difference to our 4th line. When there are injuries we might leave him there and call up a rookie from the Moose to play on the 3rd line or have the option to move him up.

I'm all in favour of bringing in our prospects but there will be plenty of opportunity with injuries. I think signing Stempniak (or Tlusty, or Boyes) would be prudent.

 

[Whileee]

Very interesting Whileee. Then add in how we lost 4 straight playoff games, 3 of them we lead to open the 3rd. It is telling.

I think it is also an argument in favour of signing Stempniak. He could make a huge difference to our 4th line. When there are injuries we might leave him there and call up a rookie from the Moose to play on the 3rd line or have the option to move him up.

I'm all in favour of bringing in our prospects but there will be plenty of opportunity with injuries. I think signing Stempniak (or Tlusty, or Boyes) would be prudent.

You could add Glencross to the list, too. I think it's fine for the Jets to look at their young prospects before going with a vet, but time will tell. The Jets need to see what they've got in players like Armia and Copp, and I expect that there will be opportunities to add a vet or two if they find that they aren't ready to make a contribution on the 4th line.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I think this tidbit might fit here....

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Corsi For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 54.3% (4th in NHL)
Period 2: 53.9% (5th)
Period 3: 52.1% (13th)

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Goals For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 65.0% (1st in NHL)
Period 2: 52.9% (8th)
Period 3: 45.3% (23rd)

Maurice has focused a lot on conditioning, but it certainly looks like the Jets tend to fade as the games go on, particularly in the 3rd period. I think it gives the strong suggestion that the Jets need to strengthen the 4th line and use it more during the games. Conditioning is important, but the Jets need better depth too if they want to sustain their heavy and aggressive style through 60 minutes and 82 games.

Fascinating stats and it explains a lot! What a team we would be with a better than average 4th line that could play 10 minutes a night. I'm all for Stempniak coming back, even at the expense of a little playing time for our younger guys. They'll have an opportunity when injuries arise.

 

[KingBogo]

Fascinating stats and it explains a lot! What a team we would be with a better than average 4th line that could play 10 minutes a night. I'm all for Stempniak coming back, even at the expense of a little playing time for our younger guys. They'll have an opportunity when injuries arise.

Except it may very will be the fact we lacked production from our 4th line that the organization is looking at an influx of youth most with high offensive ceilings. Ehlers and Petan in particular have the potential to produce much more offensively even early in their careers. And Armia was drafted 16th overall as a scoring winger. I think all we need to do is look around the league and see the value of high end young talent injected into the lineup.

Not that these guys will necessarily be on the 4th line but it allows you to balance out the lineup enabling you to put more skill on your 4th line.

 

[10Ducky10]

What about

Ladd Little Wheeler ~20 minutes
Perrault Scheifele Armia ~18 minutes
Petan Lowry Stafford ~13 minutes
Copp Burmi Thorburn ~9 minutes

 

[KingBogo]

What about

Ladd Little Wheeler ~20 minutes
Perrault Scheifele Armia ~18 minutes
Petan Lowry Stafford ~13 minutes
Copp Burmi Thorburn ~9 minutes

Not bad, but I'd drop Armia to the 4th instead of Copp and insert Ehlers onto the 2nd.

 

[knorthern knight]

I think this tidbit might fit here....

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Corsi For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 54.3% (4th in NHL)
Period 2: 53.9% (5th)
Period 3: 52.1% (13th)

Winnipeg Jets - 2014/2015 - Goals For % - 5v5 - Score Adjusted

Period 1: 65.0% (1st in NHL)
Period 2: 52.9% (8th)
Period 3: 45.3% (23rd)

Maurice has focused a lot on conditioning, but it certainly looks like the Jets tend to fade as the games go on, particularly in the 3rd period. I think it gives the strong suggestion that the Jets need to strengthen the 4th line and use it more during the games. Conditioning is important, but the Jets need better depth too if they want to sustain their heavy and aggressive style through 60 minutes and 82 games.

I'll get on my soapbox again. We need a 3A/3B setup, not 3rd and 4th lines. A solid 3B line might allow us to hold on to leads, and win more regular season, not to mention playoff, games. Here's my crack at things via http://nhlarmchairgm.com/ My assumptions are...

• a healthy Grant Clitsome, otherwise Postma/Byfuglien
• Thorburn+Stuart don't have any compromising photos of Maurice/Chevy
• the "new and improved" Pavelec is for real

NHLarmchairGM.com Line-Up

FORWARDS

A. Ladd ($ 4,400,000) --- B. Little ($ 4,700,000) --- D. Stafford ($ 4,350,000)
M. Perreault ($ 3,000,000) --- M. Scheifele ($ 863,333) --- B. Wheeler ($ 5,600,000)
A. Burmistrov ($ 1,550,000) --- A. Lowry ($ 828,333) --- J. Armia ($ 894,167)
N. Ehlers ($ 894,166) --- A. Copp ($ 925,000) --- B. Lemieux ($ 870,000)


DEFENCE

T. Enstrom ($ 5,750,000) --- T. Myers ($ 5,500,000)
G. Clitsome ($ 2,066,667) --- D. Byfuglien ($ 5,200,000)
B. Chiarot ($ 850,000) --- J. Trouba ($ 894,167)


GOAL

O. Pavelec ($ 3,900,000)


Extras

P. Postma ($ 887,500) --- M. Hutchinson ($ 575,000) --- M. Stuart ($ 2,625,000) --- C. Thorburn ($ 1,200,000)

---------------------------------------------------

2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Cap Used: $ 58,323,333
Buried/Retained Cap: + $ 0
Retained Other Team: - $ 0
Injured Reserve: - $ 0
Cap Space Available: $ 13,076,667

 

[10Ducky10]

Not bad, but I'd drop Armia to the 4th instead of Copp and insert Ehlers onto the 2nd.

I am one of the few that are not sure Ehlers makes the team. So, Armia gets the 2nd line time with linemates that have some experience as does Petan with Lowry and Staf and Copp with Thorbs and Burmi. This 4th line should be capable of 9-10 minutes a game no problem. Burmi gets additional time on PK.

 

[NBjet]

I doubt very much that Burmi gets relegated to the 4th line. I'd much rather see:

Petan - Copp - Armia

I think that they could handle a bunch of minutes. I just hope that Copp is decent on the dot. Petan is supposed to be one of the best faceoff men in the dub too.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I think that they could handle a bunch of minutes. I just hope that Copp is decent on the dot. Petan is supposed to be one of the best faceoff men in the dub too.

He might have been, but the NHL will be a much more difficult task for any rookie. Remember: Scheifele was one of the top faceoff guys in the OHL in his last year, and won an "OHL Coaches Vote" for his skill at the dot. In the NHL, he's still learning his way.

 

[KingBogo]

He might have been, but the NHL will be a much more difficult task for any rookie. Remember: Scheifele was one of the top faceoff guys in the OHL in his last year, and won an "OHL Coaches Vote" for his skill at the dot. In the NHL, he's still learning his way.

I was going to pipe in along these lines. Even the best junior faceoff guys get their lunch handed to them by NHL vets.

 

[NBjet]

I was going to pipe in along these lines. Even the best junior faceoff guys get their lunch handed to them by NHL vets.

Of course, it takes time to be competitive at the next level, but I suspect the the best faceoff men in the NHL were once the best faceoff men in Jr., or whatever development league they were once in...