GDT: 10/17/2019 Game 7: Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames (9pm EST)

[Rzombo4 prez]

Trades, free agents, good coaching. You can not build a team by saying "Well lets lose every game and get a high pick" and saying Blashill doesn't have talent so it's ok to be this bad. We've missed the playoffs for 3 years straight, going on 4 this year. How long is a "rebuild"? 10 years?

Can you imagine sucking the whole year and picking a guy that is so horrible in his second training camp (Zadina) that you wonder how why we even drafted him? It's frustrating as hell being a Wings fan right now. Getting blown out sucks and we are on year 4 of the "rebuild". It's hard to swallow another throw away year with no progress.

Trade who? Our junk? You think other teams don't know that half of our roster is junk? The only players we have with any trade value are the ones we cannot afford to trade. Free agents? What good, self-respecting free agent is going to want to sign in Detroit while the team is garbage? Spare us the "but the suburbs are great" BS. No one elite is signing up for the move to Detroit while the team is bad. Get real.

Time and time again, truly elite NHL talent is found at the very, very top of the first round. You should not be surprised that Wings fans want to be in a position to draft as close to first as possible. Your obsession with Zadina tells me that you have a lot to learn about the NHL draft and the typical developmental path from juniors to the NHL. I hate to be a pisser, but 6th overall isn't really that high of a draft pick if your expectation is an elite NHL player who transitions to the NHL quickly.

You could put Scotty Bowman behind the bench and this team still wouldn't be sniffing the playoffs. Show me a good team and I will show you good players.

I didn't realize places were still serving the "rebuild on the fly" Koolaid.

 

[RedMenace]

Damn, y'all some negative, defeatist people.

The Wings can still go... hold on...

... umm...

78-4?

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

We can't keep on being this bad year after year and thinking it's ok and we'll get a high pick and be contenders. Look at Zadina, what a big disappointment he has been so far. You'd think someone that wants the make the big club would put in a better effort than he did this preseason. Now I'm wondering why he slipped to Holland, teams probably seen something in his attitude or work ethic to say let Kenny Boy take him.

People need to stop thinking that the silver bullet is a bunch of high draft picks. Look at Edmonton. It doesn't work that easy. They've become a cesspool with a losing culture and we are getting to that point here. I'm going to wait and see how the next couple of months play out but if we continue to be this bad, Blashill needs to go.

I never understand this line of reasoning. Yes, let's look at Edmonton. A franchise that has been subject to completely inept management for years now. Like historically bad.

So because one of the worst run franchises post lockout (I'd call them the worst run, but the Senators exist) that means it doesn't work at all?

No one is saying it's a silver bullet. But it is at least a bullet. The Wings roster is terrible. They need to acquire assets any way they can. High draft picks are a great way if you're lucky enough to get one. Because let's be honest, a team this bad will have a hard time attracting top free agent talent. You're going to get players like Green and Vanek who are decent but also like having their summers off (and taking shifts off). Or guys later in their career looking for term and maximizing their salary like Nielsen and Flip.

I honestly have no opinion on Blashill staying or going. I think he went to the line blender way too early but he's not the biggest problem. And he'll likely run out his contract or get fired if and when the team gets some talent and still isn't performing.

 

[avssuc]

Holland's refusal to do a proper rebuild probably cost this team...

His refusal to give up on the playoff streak also delayed our rebuild by about 5 years.

I find it unlikely that he was the one that refused to start rebuilding. Even though I feel a bit gross for defending Holland here, I feel like it's pretty easy to forget the context of those years.

And yes, he made some mistakes after he started the rebuild, but I don't think we can fault him for starting late. All of us (assuming Dave Dombrowski doesn't vist this site) have been yes men at some point in our professional careers.

 

[NickH8]

Since this has turned into a thread about the rebuild in general I'll ask people to do this. Go to the Wikipedia page for the drafts in this decsde, and see how steep the drop off is after the top 3/4. Plenty of Brett Connolys and Sma Bennetts. I think the hard truth is we're not getting out of this until we get an elite talent through a top 3 pick or getting extremely lucky. Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen, and Seider are important pieces, but not THE answer. We need another Larkin.

 

[avssuc]

On that 1st goal of the game DeKeyser looked pathetic. For someone with that sort of reach, you can't let your man get an uncontested deflection. All DeKeyser has to do to stop that is move dudes stick a half inch. Even though he's a feeble weakling, he could, and should, have managed.

 

[Winger98]

Since this has turned into a thread about the rebuild in general I'll ask people to do this. Go to the Wikipedia page for the drafts in this decsde, and see how steep the drop off is after the top 3/4. Plenty of Brett Connolys and Sma Bennetts. I think the hard truth is we're not getting out of this until we get an elite talent through a top 3 pick or getting extremely lucky. Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen, and Seider are important pieces, but not THE answer. We need another Larkin.

There's actually a massive drop off from the top pick to the second, and then a similar drop off from the second to third if you go by ppg. It's difficult getting that elite guy, the sort of guy who is routinely top10 in scoring without not just a top3 pick, but a top 2. This isn't to say it never happens, just that if you're playing the odds in any single draft, you're looking for a bit of luck by the time you get to the third pick if you're looking for that truly elite piece.

With how the draft has become such a crapshoot, I'm wondering if we're going to see more cup winners popping up who don't have those elite pieces, or who lucked into them further down the draft.

 

[MBH]

Since this has turned into a thread about the rebuild in general I'll ask people to do this. Go to the Wikipedia page for the drafts in this decsde, and see how steep the drop off is after the top 3/4. Plenty of Brett Connolys and Sma Bennetts. I think the hard truth is we're not getting out of this until we get an elite talent through a top 3 pick or getting extremely lucky. Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen, and Seider are important pieces, but not THE answer. We need another Larkin.

To be honest, we need better than Larkin. We need an all-world, hall-of-fame talent.
Maybe the Blues are one of those rare teams without a hall of famer. But in Pietrangelo and Tarasenko, they're pretty close.

The Red Wings era continue after the Stars, Devils and Avs crashed because Datsyuk and Zetterberg were hall of famers.

 

[MBH]

There's actually a massive drop off from the top pick to the second, and then a similar drop off from the second to third if you go by ppg. It's difficult getting that elite guy, the sort of guy who is routinely top10 in scoring without not just a top3 pick, but a top 2. This isn't to say it never happens, just that if you're playing the odds in any single draft, you're looking for a bit of luck by the time you get to the third pick if you're looking for that truly elite piece.

With how the draft has become such a crapshoot, I'm wondering if we're going to see more cup winners popping up who don't have those elite pieces, or who lucked into them further down the draft.

I don't think the draft is such a crapshoot. In fact, I think there's some evidence that NHL teams are really improving their odds at the draft table.

Here are the NHL's 6-10 picks in various 5 year segments
96 - Devereaux, Rasmussen, Aitken, Salei, L Ward. Only Salei was worth it.
97 - D Tkaczuk, Mara, Samsonov, Boyntn, B Ference
Samsonov Realistically, Only Samsonov was the kind of guy worth it. Maybe Mara.
98- Fata, Malholtra, M Bell. M Rupp, Antrpov. I'm not sure you'd classify any of these guys as successful picks, even if there are a couple decent players.
99 - Finley, Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Mezei. Barf.
---------------
So from 96 to 00 -- Samsonov, Salei... and who?
---------------

00 - Hartnell, Lars Jonsson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakupov. Hartnell was a very good pick.
01 - Koivu, Komisarek, Leclaire, Ruutu, Blackburn. Maybe 2 or 3 guys here. Koivu is automatic. Ruutu never lived up to expectations, but was still solid. Komi had a decent career.
02 - Upshall, Lupul, PM Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom. Hmmm. Not sure i'd choose any of these guys. Only Lupul is maybe a core guy.
03 - Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, Kotsitysn. Now we're talking. You've got 2-4 guys guys here.
04-Montoya, Olesz, Picard, Smid, Valabik. Zero.
-----------------
So Koivu, Suter, Hartnell and Phaneuf are definites. Coburn, Upshall, Lupal, Michalek and Ruutu are close.
definite improvement.
--------
05 - Brule, Skille, Setoguchi, Lee, Bourdon - Gong show
06- Brassard, Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard, Frolik. - I don't think any of these guys rise to the level of core player. Maybe Brassard/Okposo, briefly.
07- Gagner, Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby. Vorcek and Couture make it. Gagner falls a bit short, IMO
08-Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Hodgson. Maybe Josh Bailey?
09- OEL, Kadri, Glenni, Cowen, Paajarvi. EOL and Kadri.
-----
So OEL, Voracek, Couture, Kadri. Maybe Bailey, Brassard, Gagner and Okposo are close.
----
10 - Connolly, Skinner, Burmistrov, Granlund and McIlrath. Skinner and Granlund.
11- Zibanjed, Scheifele, Couterier, Hamilton, Brodin. 5 for 5?
12 - Lindholm, Dumba, Ouiliot, Trouba, Koekko. Lindholm, Dumba and Trouba.
13- Monahan, Nurse, Risto, Horvat, Nichuskin. Monahan and Horvat for sure. I'd say Nurse and Risto are there too.
14-Virtanen, Fleury, Nyland, Ehlers, Ritchie. Kind of early, but I'd say Nylander and Ehlers are making their case.
----
Skinner, Granlund, Zinbanjed, Schiefele, Couterier, Hamilton, Brodin, Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba, Monahan, Hurse, Ristolainen, Nylander and Ehlers.
----
NHL teams are getting better at drafting franchise core pieces in that 6-10 range.
They're not grabbing franchise guys there very often. But those guys aren't easy to find away from 1 or 2.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don't think the draft is such a crapshoot. In fact, I think there's some evidence that NHL teams are really improving their odds at the draft table.

Here are the NHL's 6-10 picks in various 5 year segments
96 - Devereaux, Rasmussen, Aitken, Salei, L Ward. Only Salei was worth it.
97 - D Tkaczuk, Mara, Samsonov, Boyntn, B Ference
Samsonov Realistically, Only Samsonov was the kind of guy worth it. Maybe Mara.
98- Fata, Malholtra, M Bell. M Rupp, Antrpov. I'm not sure you'd classify any of these guys as successful picks, even if there are a couple decent players.
99 - Finley, Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Mezei. Barf.
---------------
So from 96 to 00 -- Samsonov, Salei... and who?
---------------

00 - Hartnell, Lars Jonsson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakupov. Hartnell was a very good pick.
01 - Koivu, Komisarek, Leclaire, Ruutu, Blackburn. Maybe 2 or 3 guys here. Koivu is automatic. Ruutu never lived up to expectations, but was still solid. Komi had a decent career.
02 - Upshall, Lupul, PM Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom. Hmmm. Not sure i'd choose any of these guys. Only Lupul is maybe a core guy.
03 - Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, Kotsitysn. Now we're talking. You've got 2-4 guys guys here.
04-Montoya, Olesz, Picard, Smid, Valabik. Zero.
-----------------
So Koivu, Suter, Hartnell and Phaneuf are definites. Coburn, Upshall, Lupal, Michalek and Ruutu are close.
definite improvement.
--------
05 - Brule, Skille, Setoguchi, Lee, Bourdon - Gong show
06- Brassard, Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard, Frolik. - I don't think any of these guys rise to the level of core player. Maybe Brassard/Okposo, briefly.
07- Gagner, Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby. Vorcek and Couture make it. Gagner falls a bit short, IMO
08-Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Hodgson. Maybe Josh Bailey?
09- OEL, Kadri, Glenni, Cowen, Paajarvi. EOL and Kadri.
-----
So OEL, Voracek, Couture, Kadri. Maybe Bailey, Brassard, Gagner and Okposo are close.
----
10 - Connolly, Skinner, Burmistrov, Granlund and McIlrath. Skinner and Granlund.
11- Zibanjed, Scheifele, Couterier, Hamilton, Brodin. 5 for 5?
12 - Lindholm, Dumba, Ouiliot, Trouba, Koekko. Lindholm, Dumba and Trouba.
13- Monahan, Nurse, Risto, Horvat, Nichuskin. Monahan and Horvat for sure. I'd say Nurse and Risto are there too.
14-Virtanen, Fleury, Nyland, Ehlers, Ritchie. Kind of early, but I'd say Nylander and Ehlers are making their case.
----
Skinner, Granlund, Zinbanjed, Schiefele, Couterier, Hamilton, Brodin, Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba, Monahan, Hurse, Ristolainen, Nylander and Ehlers.
----
NHL teams are getting better at drafting franchise core pieces in that 6-10 range.
They're not grabbing franchise guys there very often. But those guys aren't easy to find away from 1 or 2.

I think the uptick in advanced stats over the last decade has been a huge factor. Better tools at GM/Scouts disposal etc. Also an influx of younger personnel vs. the retiring of eyeball-test old school guys who use(d) less stats to discern a prospects worth.

 

[NickH8]

I don't think the draft is such a crapshoot. In fact, I think there's some evidence that NHL teams are really improving their odds at the draft table.

Here are the NHL's 6-10 picks in various 5 year segments
96 - Devereaux, Rasmussen, Aitken, Salei, L Ward. Only Salei was worth it.
97 - D Tkaczuk, Mara, Samsonov, Boyntn, B Ference
Samsonov Realistically, Only Samsonov was the kind of guy worth it. Maybe Mara.
98- Fata, Malholtra, M Bell. M Rupp, Antrpov. I'm not sure you'd classify any of these guys as successful picks, even if there are a couple decent players.
99 - Finley, Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Mezei. Barf.
---------------
So from 96 to 00 -- Samsonov, Salei... and who?
---------------

00 - Hartnell, Lars Jonsson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakupov. Hartnell was a very good pick.
01 - Koivu, Komisarek, Leclaire, Ruutu, Blackburn. Maybe 2 or 3 guys here. Koivu is automatic. Ruutu never lived up to expectations, but was still solid. Komi had a decent career.
02 - Upshall, Lupul, PM Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom. Hmmm. Not sure i'd choose any of these guys. Only Lupul is maybe a core guy.
03 - Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, Kotsitysn. Now we're talking. You've got 2-4 guys guys here.
04-Montoya, Olesz, Picard, Smid, Valabik. Zero.
-----------------
So Koivu, Suter, Hartnell and Phaneuf are definites. Coburn, Upshall, Lupal, Michalek and Ruutu are close.
definite improvement.
--------
05 - Brule, Skille, Setoguchi, Lee, Bourdon - Gong show
06- Brassard, Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard, Frolik. - I don't think any of these guys rise to the level of core player. Maybe Brassard/Okposo, briefly.
07- Gagner, Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby. Vorcek and Couture make it. Gagner falls a bit short, IMO
08-Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Hodgson. Maybe Josh Bailey?
09- OEL, Kadri, Glenni, Cowen, Paajarvi. EOL and Kadri.
-----
So OEL, Voracek, Couture, Kadri. Maybe Bailey, Brassard, Gagner and Okposo are close.
----
10 - Connolly, Skinner, Burmistrov, Granlund and McIlrath. Skinner and Granlund.
11- Zibanjed, Scheifele, Couterier, Hamilton, Brodin. 5 for 5?
12 - Lindholm, Dumba, Ouiliot, Trouba, Koekko. Lindholm, Dumba and Trouba.
13- Monahan, Nurse, Risto, Horvat, Nichuskin. Monahan and Horvat for sure. I'd say Nurse and Risto are there too.
14-Virtanen, Fleury, Nyland, Ehlers, Ritchie. Kind of early, but I'd say Nylander and Ehlers are making their case.
----
Skinner, Granlund, Zinbanjed, Schiefele, Couterier, Hamilton, Brodin, Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba, Monahan, Hurse, Ristolainen, Nylander and Ehlers.
----
NHL teams are getting better at drafting franchise core pieces in that 6-10 range.
They're not grabbing franchise guys there very often. But those guys aren't easy to find away from 1 or 2.

Yeah for sure. My problem is the lofty expectations people put on these guys. From 2010 to 2014 you've got guys like Schiefele, Couterier, and Nylander, but there's still guys like Granlund, Ehlers, Brodin, and Nurse. Very good players, but not the all stars people hype their top 10 prospects as. People were comparing Zadina to Pastrnak when it's more likely he's more like Tatar. Seider's comparable will most likely be Carlo instead of Parayko, Veleno will probably be more like Granlund than Larkin, etc. If we don't luck into an elite talent we better find the absolute perfect fit of a coach for the players we do have, I just hope people understand that and don't set themselves up for disappointment.

 

[MBH]

I think the uptick in advanced stats over the last decade has been a huge factor. Better tools at GM/Scouts disposal etc. Also an influx of younger personnel vs. the retiring of eyeball-test old school guys who use(d) less stats to discern a prospects worth.

More biometrics, too.
More data less old-boy network

 

[Bondurant]

Yeah for sure. My problem is the lofty expectations people put on these guys. From 2010 to 2014 you've got guys like Schiefele, Couterier, and Nylander, but there's still guys like Granlund, Ehlers, Brodin, and Nurse. Very good players, but not the all stars people hype their top 10 prospects as. People were comparing Zadina to Pastrnak when it's more likely he's more like Tatar. Seider's comparable will most likely be Carlo instead of Parayko, Veleno will probably be more like Granlund than Larkin, etc. If we don't luck into an elite talent we better find the absolute perfect fit of a coach for the players we do have, I just hope people understand that and don't set themselves up for disappointment.

Hype always comes with a top 10 pick. Most fans will know the odds of this guy being elite is less than said guy being good, average or a bust. I'll settle for Zadina and Seider being good players. I think, however, when all is said and done and we're looking back at the 2018 NHL Draft we'd like a redo to select Quinn Hughes.

 

[NickH8]

Hype always comes with a top 10 pick. Most fans will know the odds of this guy being elite is less than said guy being good, average or a bust. I'll settle for Zadina and Seider being good players. I think, however, when all is said and done and we're looking back at the 2018 NHL Draft we'd like a redo to select Quinn Hughes.

Oh yeah. I'm feeling the envy towards Canucks fans. It was the right pick at the time though.