The day after a game, its a lot easier to take a deep breath and look at things. There seems to be a lot of panic in this last little stretch. And while things need to improve, we aren't at the sky is falling hottake level yet.
First thing I look at is before this 5-game stretch, the Leafs went
12-4 from the start of November to the Buffalo game. What does 12-4 and a
123 point pace tell me? Awesome, but unsustainable. This was coupled with Marner, Tavares and Matthews being on unsustainable scoring paces, while Freddy (.934) and Sparks (.925) were also on unsustainable paces.
What happens when you are on unsustainable paces? Unfortunately, you have to come back down to earth, and that will usually include a bit of a doodoo stretch.
After the last 5 games, some paces:
109 points
Marner 82-20-87-107
Tavares 82-50-34-84
Matthews 68-57-39-96 (are you f***ing kidding me?)
Rielly 82-25-62-87
Trying to look at the positives and negatives of this stretch
Pros:
- 4/10 points won't kill you. A win and some extra points were nice
- 2 of the 5 games were played extremely well (Carolina, Tampa)
- More of a response to being pushed around
Cons:
- Goaltending (Detroit, Boston, I guess Tampa)
- The big boys have been somewhat ineffective
- Powerplay
- Penalty Kill
- Disrespecting their opponent (Detroit, depleted Boston, Florida)
- Poor defensive coverage on a lot of plays/goals
- Tenacity
While that is a big and critical list, I'm not letting a small poor streak or slump tell me the sky is falling. From the cons list, here is what I'm not worried about yet and some things I am (the prolonged obvious).
- Goaltending (Detroit, Boston, I guess Tampa) | too few games to worry
- The big boys have been somewhat ineffective | too few games to worry
- Powerplay | the personnel is too good for this to continue
- Penalty Kill | the personnel isn't good enough, this could continue
- Disrespecting their opponent (Detroit, depleted Boston, Florida) | This shouldn't be a concern, but it is. This may take a lot of maturity to get over
- Poor defensive coverage on a lot of plays/goals | personnel isn't good enough, this will continue
- Tenacity | We don't need grit or face punchers, we need energy and willingness
In the end, our offence, goaltending and overall record shouldn't be a concern. Yet. If this continues over the next 4-6 games to end the calendar year, yes, I will be concerned (especially considering our opponents). But the Freddy blows, Matthews has no shoulder, our pp is awful takes are premature. Things are just normalizing, pacing is reverting to their norms.
On the other hand, the right side of our defence (timed with Dermott in a very rough patch) is the main concern. This needs an upgrade, or we won't go where we need to if its not dealt with. And a couple more tenacious middle-6 wingers would be nice.
