Friedman: “The only rental who I think is getting a #1 is Kreider”

[SpezDispenser]

The problem you have with Pageau is that those 21 goals came with him playing as Ottawa's #1C. On many teams he is the #3C and would not get a lot of pp time. In that role he is more of a 12-14g 30 point player. As a pure rental that likely does not get you a first.

With 'intangibles' too though. And he's scored 19 with zibanejad and turris ahead of him. He's the most perfect forward rental out there for a playoff bound team imo.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

It isn't the hottest take. Only Duchene and Hayes attracted first round picks last season. Hall was this year's Duchene in terms of being a high scoring star forward rental, only he was traded much earlier in the season.

Last year, we saw more teams gravitate towards giving up two 2nd round picks, or a 2nd and a 3rd. Those were in deals where we'd traditionally be more likely to see a 1st moved.

(I guess I have to put the obvious disclaimer that I am not saying Hall and Duchene are equal)

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Tight cap space for many of the contenders and there simply aren't very many game breakers on the market right now. Until teams decide in or out, we simply don't know who is really going to be moved. Kreider has appeal but not sure pure rentals are going to command any over payment this year.

All it takes is one injury to a major player to change the dynamics of the marketplace.

Also, one should never underestimate the shortsightedness of NHL general managers. Remember that it was only two years ago that a supposedly experienced and proven general manager traded a second round draft choice for Plekanec, a player that even Stevie Wonder could see was a faded asset. As Brian Burke often comments: the trade deadline is where most GM's make their worst transactions. It will happen again.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

C > W generally. On deadline day, though, supply and demand takes over. There is a limited supply of centers, but the sense I get reading HF is that none of the true contenders (Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa, St. Louis) have a real need for one. The demand is at the bubble (New York, Columbus and Winnipeg stand out). However, those teams are less inclined to give up a high pick because of the risk of things going south and that turning into a mid-1st or worse.

There is limited supply of wingers as well. There is demand among the true contenders; Pittsburgh and Boston, in particular, need a winger like Kreider.

 

[Eggtimer]

I don’t think Vatanen getting 1st is that crazy to see happen .
He has played good enough to make a difference that could have a team squeezing into a WC spot .
With injuries piling up and a very close pacific race I could see Vats at max retention plus a 4th get a 1st in return

As a fan of neither the Rangers or Sens or the two players , I’d take Kreider before Pageau if costs were the same . I just feel he would be the better player for playoff hockey

 

[YakDavid]

There really aren't many teams at the moment who either would trade a first (could be pushing for playoffs and risky to trade if they miss) or have rentals available. Looking at the market I think depth players will be what teams are looking for. Top end talent isn't really abundant or available.

 

[Eggtimer]

There really aren't many teams at the moment who either would trade a first (could be pushing for playoffs and risky to trade if they miss) or have rentals available. Looking at the market I think depth players will be what teams are looking for. Top end talent isn't really abundant or available.

That’s true the part about a lot of teams being in the bubble and too risky giving up a first . That would limit it to teams like Boston Wash Tampa Pitt that are as close to slam dunk playoff teams that might go the rental route while teams on the bubble look for a long term trade / hockey trade with the slight chance of gambling on a rental if they somehow got the feeling they had a good chance to resign the player as a UFA

 

[5cotland]

Pageau has been a way better playoff player than Kreider and his production currently isnt far off he has more goals, while playing a more important postion is better defensively and he is younger. I dont see how Kreider holds more value.

See, when you think HFB cant get crazier, stuff like this gets posted.

Even when Kreider has played double the amount of play off games, scored nearly double the amount of play off goals and has more than double the amount of play off points, you still put up a commendable arguement.

But hey, dont let true stats and performances take that away trying to convince yourself that Pageau is better than Kreider.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

That’s true the part about a lot of teams being in the bubble and too risky giving up a first . That would limit it to teams like Boston Wash Tampa Pitt that are as close to slam dunk playoff teams that might go the rental route while teams on the bubble look for a long term trade / hockey trade with the slight chance of gambling on a rental if they somehow got the feeling they had a good chance to resign the player as a UFA

If we see a 1st from outside that contender group, I think it will be the Dallas special. Make it conditional on a Conference Finals appearance and the acquiring team is not only guaranteeing some level of success, but also limiting the draft slot to no better than 28OA. Over the years, the Stars traded Jagr and Eaves for and acquired Russell and Zuccarello with a 1st with that protection.

 

[HabsQC]

Knowledge of what?

Knowledge of understanding the game and how the market works and what the 'in the knows' expect the return to be?

The 'in the knows' expect a 4th rounder as the price with some teams maybe going to a 3rd rounder if there hands are forced.

0 knowledge of how other teams value Kovalchuk at this point and how many of them will try to outbid each other.

Do I need to remember you that Paul Gaustad once was dealt for a 1st.

No way he's getting traded for a 4th. Last rumours was "at least a 2nd", see thread

 

[HabsQC]

There is a 0% chance that Kovi gets a 1st and there is probably a 10% chance for a 2nd however, the 2nd is irrelevant because that was not what they were talking about.

Is there a source for those numbers outside of your head?

Like I said, zero knowledge, it's just what you think.

 

[5cotland]

0 knowledge of how other teams value Kovalchuk at this point and how many of them will try to outbid each other.

Do I need to remember you that Paul Gaustad once was dealt for a 1st.

No way he's getting traded for a 4th. Last rumours was "at least a 2nd", see thread

The fact you are talking about a trade that happened 8 years ago is irrelevant.

There was never any rumours of a team offering a 2nd for him. That is what Montreal are asking for him if they are not in playoff contention.

 

[Saltcreek]

Is there a source for those numbers outside of your head?

Like I said, zero knowledge, it's just what you think.

You keep saying zero knowledge but I do not think you know what that means. No one is going to give up a 1st in a deep draft for an ageing Kovi who has been a disappointment for the majority of the last 2 years. His recent play in Montreal is not going to boost his value that much and to be blunt, Kovi is not really that good. A 3rd will be about right for him.

 

[Section32]

Front Office Staff, from GM to scouts, want to have deep playoff runs. It makes keeping their job easier to justify.

These guys work in a weird business with extreme turnover, but clearly not all organizations are in the same boat...For example, Tampa rarely appears desperate in deadline deals.

However, I would bet that 24-26 GMs out of the 31 are more interested in this year than what is probably a late pick player, 3-4 years away from making his NHL debut.

 

[Kaner9]

If your not a top 5 team in the league what the f*** are you doing giving 1st for kreider? Lord no

 

[BLONG7]

Rarely anymore does a team give up their 1st rounder...............this is not real big news, even crash Kreider is just worth a late 1st.

 

[Scintillating10]

Pageau may fetch a first too. He's good playoff guy. But teams in generally seem to be more reluctant to move their first pick. It is good draft too. Maybe also a factor this deadline.

 

[Disgraced Cosmonaut]

Options for NYR on Kreider:
1) Sign him to a team-friendly deal- He's not the perfect player, but has his moments and would be hard to replace in the short term. There has to be a number at which he's too good not to keep. If I'm his agent, and I know he really wants to stay, I come up with a low enough AAV and make the deal buy out proof for 8 years. Basically, open market 6 year money stretched out over 8 years, but structured so that you can't not pay the man. Andrew Ladd got one of those.
2) Trade him for a 1st and another piece- Probably only the top 5 teams consider this move opposite the NYR. Boston and Pitt make the most sense at a first rounder price (as far as who is likely to want him and also be OK squandering the 25+ first round slot). This would be a great return for losing a few months of a late 20's player heading into FA, once you determine he's not accepting 85 - 90 cents on the dollar to stay in NY.
3) Trade him for a 2nd that's a conditional 1st if the team acquiring him does X or Y- Now you can get more teams involved because the risk is mitigated enough.
Maybe in each of these latter two options there's a winger prospect you can bring in along with the pick who can help you in the short and perhaps long term. Not a goal scoring winger, necessarily, but someone who needs a look in the NHL. Look at Carter Verhaeghe for an example of the type of plus you'd add to a pick to close a deal.
4) Two 2nds. That's still a decent haul if you've decided you're going to part ways with him. Not a great haul, but certainly a 2nd in the next two drafts would be a nice luxury for a team that won't be making the playoffs.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

Personally I think Pageau returns a first round pick.

The team acquiring him wouldn’t want him for his goal scoring abilities (which he can do) but his intangibles and his PKing abilities. It is well known around the league he is a master on the PK and being defensively sound.

In the playoffs the games are tight and it’s crucial you need to be able to defend again the PP.

On top of all this, he is a C which generally are more valuable then wingers. I think Kreiders value is slightly higher but not significantly.

 

[BlackFrancis]

Personally I think Pageau returns a first round pick.

The team acquiring him wouldn’t want him for his goal scoring abilities (which he can do) but his intangibles and his PKing abilities. It is well known around the league he is a master on the PK and being defensively sound.

In the playoffs the games are tight and it’s crucial you need to be able to defend again the PP.

On top of all this, he is a C which generally are more valuable then wingers. I think Kreiders value is slightly higher but not significantly.

Pageau is a very good player. One of those guys that is just tough to play against and would be an asset to any contending team.

That said, the last time the Sens traded Pageau, his name was Chris Kelly and he returned a second rounder.

 

[Guttersniped]

Picks vary in value. Winnipeg’s 2019 1st was more valuable than Boston’s 2020 1st. I can’t see Boston getting much just with their 2nd, the 60th pick is a borderline 3rd round pick.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

Pageau is a very good player. One of those guys that is just tough to play against and would be an asset to any contending team.

That said, the last time the Sens traded Pageau, his name was Chris Kelly and he returned a second rounder.

Ok that’s fine but I counter Pageau + a 2nd for a 1st (depending where both the 2nd and 1st sit)

 

[BlackFrancis]

Ok that’s fine but I counter Pageau + a 2nd for a 1st (depending where both the 2nd and 1st sit)

I honestly hope you guys get a first for him. I'd do your deal without hesitation if Coyle weren't so much better at 3C than he is anywhere else.

My post was more about tempering expectations and all that. Happy hunting on the 24th.

 

[mflo77]

the bruins are 10000000% gonna offer a 1st for kreider. hopefully a 2nd plus a B prospect gets it done for pageau.

 

[Jerkbait]

Options for NYR on Kreider:
1) Sign him to a team-friendly deal- He's not the perfect player, but has his moments and would be hard to replace in the short term. There has to be a number at which he's too good not to keep. If I'm his agent, and I know he really wants to stay, I come up with a low enough AAV and make the deal buy out proof for 8 years. Basically, open market 6 year money stretched out over 8 years, but structured so that you can't not pay the man. Andrew Ladd got one of those.
2) Trade him for a 1st and another piece- Probably only the top 5 teams consider this move opposite the NYR. Boston and Pitt make the most sense at a first rounder price (as far as who is likely to want him and also be OK squandering the 25+ first round slot). This would be a great return for losing a few months of a late 20's player heading into FA, once you determine he's not accepting 85 - 90 cents on the dollar to stay in NY.
3) Trade him for a 2nd that's a conditional 1st if the team acquiring him does X or Y- Now you can get more teams involved because the risk is mitigated enough.
Maybe in each of these latter two options there's a winger prospect you can bring in along with the pick who can help you in the short and perhaps long term. Not a goal scoring winger, necessarily, but someone who needs a look in the NHL. Look at Carter Verhaeghe for an example of the type of plus you'd add to a pick to close a deal.
4) Two 2nds. That's still a decent haul if you've decided you're going to part ways with him. Not a great haul, but certainly a 2nd in the next two drafts would be a nice luxury for a team that won't be making the playoffs.

There is zero chance NYR trade within their own division ( Pittsburgh) just not happening. Boston a tad more realistic but they would prefer trading to the west