Post-Game Talk: “The Oilers are winning this now” - @gordonhught - @Cloned

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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If Campbell was at his career average of .913% sv% the Oilers would have given up 14 less goals than they have. Given that only 4 of their loses were really more than one goal excluding empty net goals the team would probably have 3 more wins. 14-7 would look a lot better than 11-10.
 

Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Nov 8, 2007
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I feel like the Oilers defense was horrendous and they luckily spent most of the 3rd in the offensive zone. This is based on speculation after watching the game.
We outplayed them every period at even strength and generated both more shots and higher quality shots. It was just goalie gap+special teams that put the Rangers up 3-0. Now of course that is by design b/c New York has one of the best goalies in the world and Edmonton has one of the worst, but the skaters were ragdolling the Rangers' skaters at even strength.
If Campbell was at his career average of .913% sv% the Oilers would have given up 14 less goals than they have. Given that only 4 of their loses were really more than one goal excluding empty net goals the team would probably have 3 more wins. 14-7 would look a lot better than 11-10.
It was always extremely unlikely for Campbell to put up even close to his career average save percentage with this build of the Oilers. The Leafs defense wasn't great last year but the type of shots they give up/type of system they play tends to help Campbell b/c they don't give up a lot of high danger. Our team gives up a ton of high danger due to McDrai/Hyman/Nurse playstyle and players like Bouchard/Barrie just being weak defensively in general.
 

Spawn

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Feb 20, 2006
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If Campbell was at his career average of .913% sv% the Oilers would have given up 14 less goals than they have. Given that only 4 of their loses were really more than one goal excluding empty net goals the team would probably have 3 more wins. 14-7 would look a lot better than 11-10.
Campbell has been so bad this year that his career sv% has already dropped from a .916 to a 913. 12 games lol
 

Shaquille Oatmeal

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If Campbell was at his career average of .913% sv% the Oilers would have given up 14 less goals than they have. Given that only 4 of their loses were really more than one goal excluding empty net goals the team would probably have 3 more wins. 14-7 would look a lot better than 11-10.
14-7 would place them comfortably 2nd in the division.

Campbell has been so bad this year that his career sv% has already dropped from a .916 to a 913. 12 games lol
That's a huge drop in 12 games spanning his career. Yikes
 
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Fourier

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We outplayed them every period at even strength and generated both more shots and higher quality shots. It was just goalie gap+special teams that put the Rangers up 3-0. Now of course that is by design b/c New York has one of the best goalies in the world and Edmonton has one of the worst, but the skaters were ragdolling the Rangers' skaters at even strength.

It was always extremely unlikely for Campbell to put up even close to his career average save percentage with this build of the Oilers. The Leafs defense wasn't great last year but the type of shots they give up/type of system they play tends to help Campbell b/c they don't give up a lot of high danger. Our team gives up a ton of high danger due to McDrai/Hyman/Nurse playstyle and players like Bouchard/Barrie just being weak defensively in general.
As someone who reluctantly watches more Leaf hockey than I care to admit, I was not so sure that your comparison with the Oilers and the Leafs was accurate. They have a habit of hanging goalies out to dry a lot as well. Natural Stats Trick seems to agree with me on the HDCA side 5 vs 5. The Leafs gave up 28 fewer HDCA vs the Oilers last year. Over the last three years the difference has been on average only about 16 more per season on the Oiler side.

This year in 519 5 vs 5 minutes Campbell has faced 65 HD shots against. That's 7.51/60. Of the goalies that played 300+ minutes 31 goalies have faced more per minute played. In his two years in Toronto he faced 7.21/60 Thats one more HD shot every 3-4 games. Last year the rate was 7.58/60 which is slightly higher.

The big difference has been on the pk. The Oilers pk has been a disaster this year. Cambell has face about 20/60 which is a killer. Last year his SV% on the pk vs HD shoots was .829. This year it is .682 vs Skinner's .813.
 
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KarmaPolice

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Oct 5, 2007
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Didn't watch the game, but saw the highlites. Glad Bouchard and Holloway finally found the back of the net. Hopefully this result not only gets them going, but the entire team. McLeod also looked good from the highlites I saw. This team is so much more dangerous when he can help get the 3rd line producing.
 

TKB21

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Oct 27, 2013
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Do you think the refs will make that call every game? I was shocked they actually made the right call on that interference. He has to stop more pucks. Under .890 for a $5 millions goalie is absolutely trash.

Edit: Goalies get sent down to the minors at .890. He's at .875 for a huge portion of the salary cap. He sucks
This can’t be understated. No way should any goalie be playing games in the NHL if they are rocking a 4.04 GA and .875 SP after playing 10 plus games. Thats ECHL level of shit
 

K1900L

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He just looks so Canadian. One can encounter this person at any rural gas station parking lot rocking the Caterpillar boots, worn jeans, a grey hoodie and the black beanie, digging his truck out of snow.
 
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Shaquille Oatmeal

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This can’t be understated. No way should any goalie be playing games in the NHL if they are rocking a 4.04 GA and .875 SP after playing 10 plus games. Thats ECHL level of shit
Agreed. It's at a point where he and his contract are absolutely embarrassing.
 

Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Nov 8, 2007
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As someone who reluctantly watches more Leaf hockey than I care to admit, I was not so sure that your comparison with the Oilers and the Leafs was accurate. They have a habit of hanging goalies out to dry a lot as well. Natural Stats Trick seems to agree with me on the HDCA side 5 vs 5. The Leafs gave up 28 fewer HDCA vs the Oilers last year. Over the last three years the difference has been on average only about 16 more per season on the Oiler side.

This year in 519 5 vs 5 minutes Campbell has faced 65 HD shots against. That's 7.51/60. Of the goalies that played 300+ minutes 31 goalies have faced more per minute played. In his two years in Toronto he faced 7.21/60 Thats one more HD shot every 3-4 games. Last year the rate was 7.58/60 which is slightly higher.

The big difference has been on the pk. The Oilers pk has been a disaster this year. Cambell has face about 20/60 which is a killer. Last year his SV5 on the pk vs HD shoots was .829. This year it is .682 vs Skinner's .813.
The thing with penalty kill is that you WILL give up high danger chances against simply b/c you're down a guy. Removing that and just looking at 5v5 play takes away a very important and very significant sample size, and with the full sample size Toronto allowed 53 less than us.

As for comparison within the team itself. Skinner actually faces a higher HDCA/60 than Campbell with 88 in 583 mins overall vs 94 in 668 mins at all strengths and 67 in 471 mins vs 65 in 519 mins at 5v5. It's just one guy can be trusted to make those saves while the other cannot so we can play looser with Skinner and generate more chances both ways.
 
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JordanGalhanth

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Apr 21, 2012
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He just looks so Canadian. One can encounter this person at any rural gas station parking lot rocking the Caterpillar boots, worn jeans, a grey hoodie and the black beanie, digging his truck out of snow.

Don't forget that the truck has a 90's-era Tim Horton's travel mug on the dashboard that hasn't been washed in about 5 years.
 

russ99

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Jun 9, 2011
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Nice to see the Oilers win and Holloway get his first goal, but this is a bit maddening like the Florida win, papers over some deep cracks and lets everyone ignore the real problems for a few days.

I still don’t see any kind of philosophical change to address real problems, like Eakins before him, Woodcroft is gonna play this way.

The thing with penalty kill is that you WILL give up high danger chances against simply b/c you're down a guy. Removing that and just looking at 5v5 play takes away a very important and very significant sample size, and with the full sample size Toronto allowed 53 less than us.

As for comparison within the team itself. Skinner actually faces a higher HDCA/60 than Campbell with 88 in 583 mins overall vs 94 in 668 mins at all strengths and 67 in 471 mins vs 65 in 519 mins at 5v5. It's just one guy can be trusted to make those saves while the other cannot so we can play looser with Skinner and generate more chances both ways.
Removing that? IMO the PK is where our lack of team defense comes home to roost. But yeah, continue to blame the goalies for giving up goals on wide open looks.
 

Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Nov 8, 2007
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Nice to see the Oilers win and Holloway get his first goal, but this is a bit maddening like the Florida win, papers over some deep cracks and lets everyone ignore the real problems for a few days.

I still don’t see any kind of philosophical change to address real problems, like Eakins before him, Woodcroft is gonna play this way.


Removing that? IMO the PK is where our lack of team defense comes home to roost. But yeah, continue to blame the goalies for giving up goals on wide open looks.
I'm not blaming goalies I'm blaming Jack Campbell. Skinner plays behind the same defense who play even more loosely in front of him and gets the job done. Every goalie in the NHL has to deal with high danger shots on the penalty kill. Of players who've faced more than 20 high danger shots against on the penalty kill, only John Gibson and Alexandar Georgiev have a lower shorthanded HDSV%.
 

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