Stoppable goals correlation with save percentages

By Bleedred · Nov 4, 2018 · Updated Nov 5, 2018
  1. Bleedred
    As per request from @Ripshot 43 before the season started, I have been reviewing every goal against in the league on every night since the season started. Early on, I made the mistake of not just making a chart with every goalie to play this year and keeping track that way. So the other night, I had to go through almost a month's worth of reviews and count them and put down every goalie in the league on a file on my computer, and count their stoppable goals and type them down. Then update them for the remainder of the season. I think this is a great opportunity to see if save percentages and poor goalie play will be congruent, at least over a full season. Absolutely they aren't necessarily on a game by game basis. I've never done this for every goalie in the league, but have been doing it for the goalies of my favorite team for years now. I remember finding in Brodeur's first decline year in save percentage, the stoppable goals went up. And they went up by a lot in his last year in the league. I think for the goals against Cory Schneider in 15-16, fewer than 20% of the goals he allowed were stoppable. Then the next year, his save percentage went down to commode and the stoppable goal count was something closer to 30%, which continued into the next year and I don't expect it to change this year. I also remember watching Darling's goals against, just because he had a historically bad season last year and almost 50% of his goals against were stoppable. It was definitely well over 40%. I wanna see if the eye test really confirms to me that the goalie is playing as poor as the save percentage indicates over a full season.

    So this is what I've found so far. This is probably gonna be long, but I'm listing every goalie that's played a minute this year and their save percentages, as well as the stoppable goals against. There's still some anomalies here, as it's very early in the season. I've found Grubauer has a low stoppable goal count for his poor save percentage, I've also found Hellebuyck has a higher stoppable goal count so far for having a just slightly below league average save percentage. Varlamov, Rinne, Halak and Brossoit all have higher save percentages and lower stoppable goal counts. While Allen, Smith, Ward and Holtby all have poor save percentages and all have hit double digits in stoppable goals already.

    Roberto Luongo: .957% - 2 goals against, 0 stoppable.
    Laurent Brossoit:. 957% - 5 goals against, 0 stoppable.
    Darcy Kuemper: .957% - 4 goals against, 1 stoppable.
    Jaroslav Halak: .952% - 11 goals against, 3 stoppable.
    Pekka Rinne: .948% - 11 goals against, 1 stoppable.
    Thomas Greiss: .944% - 12 goals against, 4 stoppable.
    Devan Dubnyk: .937% - 21 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Semyon Varlamov: .936% - 19 goals against, 4 stoppable.
    John Gibson: .936% - 26 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Mikko Koskinen: .935% - 6 goals against, 2 stoppable.
    Andrei Vasilevskiy: .935% - 20 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Linus Ullmark: .934% - 8 goals against, 2 stoppable.
    Casey DeSmith: .933% - 10 goals against, 3 stoppable.
    Ryan Miller: .932% - 8 goals against, 0 stoppable.
    Antti Raanta: .929% - 19 goals against, 5 stoppable.
    Robin Lehner: .928% - 16 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    David Rittich: .927% - 13 goals against, 5 stoppable.
    Frederik Andersen: .924% - 27 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Anton Khudobin: 923% - 7 goals against, 1 stoppable.
    Ben Bishop: .923% - 23 goals against, 9 stoppable.
    Jusse Saros: .917% - 18 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Henrik Lundqvist: .917% - 28 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Aaron Dell: .913% - 11 goals against, 3 stoppable.
    Keith Kinkaid: .913% - 26 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Jack Campbell: .912% - 23 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Jimmy Howard: ,912% - 29 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Anders Nilsson: .912% - 16 goals against, 5 stoppable.
    Carter Hutton: .910% - 29 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Craig Anderson: .909% - 39 goals against, 9 stoppable.
    Peter Budaj: .909% - 1 goal against, 0 stoppable.
    Corey Crawford: .907% - 20 goals against, 1 stoppable.
    Carey Price: .907% - 26 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Connor Hellebuyck: .907% - 33 goals against, 10 stoppable.
    Cam Talbot: .904% - 28 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Tukka Rask: .902% - 17 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Marc-Andre Fleury: .901% - 29 goals against, 6 stoppable. (surprised by this)
    Martin Jones: .900% - 27 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Jacob Markstrom: .899% - 30 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Antti Niemi: .898% - 10 goals against, 1 stoppable.
    Alexander Georgiev: .897% - 11 goals against, 3 stoppable.
    Sergei Bobrovsky: .895% - 29 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Alex Stalock: .895% - 10 goals against, 0 stoppable.
    Brian Elliott: .893% - 30 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Philipp Grubauer: .893% - 18 goals against, 2 stoppable (surprised by this also)
    Scott Darling: .893% - 6 goals against, 3 stoppable (not surprised by this)
    Garret Sparks: .892% - 7 goals against, 3 stoppable.
    Curtis McElhinney: .892% - 11 goals against, 4 stoppable.
    Matt Murray: .890% - 28 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Cory Schneider: .889% - 4 goals against, 2 stoppable.
    Braden Holtby: 888% - 34 goals against, 12 stoppable.
    Louis Domingue: .887% - 12 goals against, 0 stoppable. (1 was a blowout 7 goal against game)
    Cam Ward: .887% - 32 goals against, 11 stoppable. (not surprised at all)
    James Reimer: .885% - 21 goals against, 6 stoppable. (surprised it's not more stoppable goals, but he seems to fail the eye test even in his good years)
    Phoenix Copley: .882% - 10 goals against, 4 stoppable.
    Malcolm Subban: .881% - 7 goals against, 2 stoppable.
    Joonas Korpisalo: .881% - 17 goals against, 3 stoppable. (surprisingly low for how poor the save percentage is, but that's 5 game samples for you)
    Petr Mrazek: .880% - 22 goals against, 7 stoppable.
    Jake Allen: .879% - 41 goals against, 14 stoppable.
    Jonathan Bernier: .873% - 19 goals against, 8 stoppable.
    Chad Johnson: .872% - 6 goals against, 2 stoppable.
    Mike Smith: .871% - 34 goals against, 12 stoppable.
    Calvin Pickard: .851% - 15 goals against, 5 stoppable.
    Jonathan Quick: .845% - 17 goals against, 4 stoppable.
    Michael Hutchinson: .839% - 14 goals against, 6 stoppable.
    Mike McKenna: .808% - 6 goals against, 4 stoppable.
    Mike Condon: .800% - 8 goals against, 3 stoppable.
    Michael Neuvirth: .727% - 6 goals against, 1 stoppable.

    So there's some surprises and some that aren't surprising. I still think we're too early in the season, where just one or two good or bad games will either sink a save percentage or blow it up. There's a lot of fluctuation this early int he season, but guys like Holtby, Allen, Ward and Smith have been horrific. Mrazek has been poor. Pickard and Bernier have also been brutal in a smaller number of games, while Hutchinson and McKenna have been terrifyingly bad in a very small number of games. Vasilevskiy has a high count of stoppable goals from me for a .935%, but I think 4 of them came in the same game a week or two ago. Crawford has a very low number from me for being just below the current league average, but it's definitely early. Rinne looks to be VERY good in both save percentage and eye test so far.

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