Your Summer Wishlist

[Ole Gil]

i don't understand why people pencil in possession anchors who can't play defense alongside jeff skinner. ribeiro and lecavalier are two of the worst defensive centers in hockey, why would anyone want them alongside skinner of all people?

Because the 3rd line Skinner only plays in the offensive zone against weak competition.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Because the 3rd line Skinner only plays in the offensive zone against weak competition.

How did he wind up being -14 then?

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Because the 3rd line Skinner only plays in the offensive zone against weak competition.

skinner got outshot while he was playing on the third line. i assure you that a ribeiro-skinner line would spend plenty of time in the defensive zone. the fact that they would start in the offensive zone for faceoffs doesn't mean they'll only be there and won't have to worry about their horrific defense killing the team.

zone starts don't really have *that* big of a effect. they don't factor in any of the times players jump over the boards during play, which account for a huge number of shifts. they are for faceoffs only. also, the typically cited stat is the percentage of offensive zone faceoffs compared to defensive zone faceoffs. it doesn't count neutral zone faceoffs. when someone says "skinner starts 67% of his shifts in the offensive zone" it's more like he starts 44% of his faceoffs in the offensive zone, 34% in the neutral zone and 22% in the defensive zone. and then he jumps over the boards hundreds of times.

no amount of coaching is going to keep a skinner-ribeiro line from having to defend. which they will do poorly.

 

[Ole Gil]

Skinner and Nash had a GF% of 59. They may have been outshot, but they were getting outshot by the other teams Drayson Bowman, so who cares?

Skinner winded up being a -14 by playing with the Staal's against good hockey players.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Chip Alexander ‏@ice_chip
Francis says Canes are in talks with Tlusty. Will qualify him.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Chip Alexander ‏@ice_chip
Francis says Canes are in talks with Tlusty. Will qualify him.

Good. I'd have hated to see him go.

 

[What the Faulk]

Well, they weren't going to not qualify him. He could still be moved if he wants too much.

 

[DaveG]

Exactly. That said I'd prefer we keep him at the very least. I think he's arbitration eligible this year, would hate to see it come to that but it very well could.

 

[Vagrant]

Brett Bellemore testing free agency is a bit of a surprise to me. Curious if he'll find somebody out there to give him a Jeff Finger. Certainly had more value to us than Jay Harrison, but apparently the front office doesn't see it that way. Curious.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Hopefully, it's just posturing and we can bring him back at something reasonable. I'd hate to see him leave. Especially if Harrison isn't back.

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

We should trade Harrison for a grinder type (Moen?) and keep Bellemore. Him and Hainsey were awesome.

 

[What the Faulk]

Bellemore going to UFA makes me think he's trying to cash in on his first professional season. You can only spend so much on a guy like him.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The Canes might not like Harrison more, but he's under contract so unless they find a taker, it's hard to give Bellemore much money.

Ideally, it would be good to see them sign/trade for a legit top 4, move Harrison and re-sign Bellemore.

Faulk-Sekera
Hainsey - TBD
Liles/Murphy/Bellemore.

 

[DougieSmash]

Sekera- Faulk
Hainsey- Redmond/ Weaver
Liles- Murphy

 

[NotOpie]

Just read that he Coyotes are unlikely to resign any of their UFAs. That group includes Radim Vrbata, David Moss, and Derek Morris. Some interesting options....but Ronnie unlikely to pony up for Vrbata and Morris is old and slow....but I could see us snagging Moss.

 

[jeromeo87]

Any word on if we are spending to the cap this year?

 

[What the Faulk]

You're rarely going to hear a team say otherwise. I doubt it though.

 

[jeromeo87]

You're rarely going to hear a team say otherwise. I doubt it though.

Well, for years JR said they were a self-imposed cap team. Didn't know if anything like that had been said.

 

[Caniac125330]

Doubt it would ever happen but Ehrhoff would be a great addition.

 

[bluedevil58*]

Man we have a lot of holes to fill. I am starting to become nervous...

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah, I'm thinking this entire season will bank on whether or not we can trade Ward. If we can't, we'll be bad next year. We'll probably be bad anyway, but...

 

[What the Faulk]

A little math:

Let's pretend Ward rebounds to post a .910 save percentage (career average). Let's also pretend the defense somehow becomes league average, and they allow exactly 30 shots per game (down from 30.8 last year). Finally, let's pretend Ward plays exactly 40 games worth of minutes, through starts and in relief of Khudobin when he has an off night.

That means, in 2400 minutes, he'll face 1200 shots. Stopping 91% of those yields 108 goals. If Khudobin starts the other 42, facing the same frequency of shots, and stops 92.8% (his career average), he'll allow 91 goals.

199 goals would rank 8th best last year, and 27 fewer than they actually allowed. They shave off roughly one goal against every three games.

Sounds good, but it assumes a lot:
-Ward will rebound enough.
-Khudobin won't struggle in any way.
-Neither will get hurt.
-The defense will allow fewer shots.

This is probably a best case scenario, and they're paying 6.7 million for it.

 

[jeromeo87]

Yeah, I'm thinking this entire season will bank on whether or not we can trade Ward. If we can't, we'll be bad next year. We'll probably be bad anyway, but...

Yes, I believe a lot is banking on what they do with Ward. We have a lot of holes to fill in order to be a real competing team. Ridding ourselves of Liles would help, as well.

I think we shoudln't go into next season with the same top 6.

Depending on what we do with Lindholm, we may be shopping for a third line center.

We have to add size and toughness to our bottom 6 (top 6, too, preferably).

We also need to add another top 4 dman, someone preferably right-handed, with an offensive edge to help run the PP. (Anyone have any ideas?)

That's a lot to do with not that much cap space.

FA/Trade EStaal Semin
Skinner JStaal FA/Trade
Gerbe Lindholm FA/Trade
Dwyer Nash FA

Sekera Faulk
Hainsey FA/Trade
Harrison Bellemore/Murphy

 

[What the Faulk]

Anyone know how much money Michael Del Zotto is looking for? It seems Nashville might not even qualify him because "he wasn't a good fit". He's been very inconsistent possession wise, but has put up good number offensively, outside of this year. I doubt they'd take on Liles' contract, but maybe Harrison? Either of those exchanges would be an upgrade.

 

[bluedevil58*]

The plan is to keep Ward. it's official. Francis is going to use our 2 guys as atandem and send peters to free agency. Looks like that contract is staying.

As far as I can tell here are our holes. I am assuming Tlusty is resigned. Let's put Lindholm on the wing and negate us having to go out and acquire a 2nd line forward. I assume a 3 C is cheaper than a 2nd line F.

Semin-Staal-Tlusty

Skinner-Staal-Lindholm

Gerbe-UFA-UFA

Dwyer-Nash-UFA

Faulk-Sekera

Hainsey-Liles

UFA-Harrison

Murphy

As far as I can tell priority should be a 3C. Lokt is a maybe. If Lokt is signed I would move Lindholm to 3C or put Lokt there. Lindholm seems to have the body/play style to be more of a 3C than Lokt. But signing that 3C should be a priority. Mind you there are unknowns here. Those unknowns are Mcginn, Boychuck, and Rask. Past that...I don't know. Sutter maybe and thne move Nash to the 3C but meh..... So given that we are pretty much screwed CAP wise here is what I would do/propose.

Semin-Staal-Tlusty

Skinner-Staal-Lindholm

Gerbe-Nash-UFA

Dwyer-Rask/Sutter-McGinn/Blanchard/Sutter(the 6.5 one).

Faulk-Sekera

Hainsey-Liles

Murphy-Harrison

Jordan

We are going to have to rely heavily on our prospects/checkers now. There simply isn't any other way around this. Is there? Thoughts?