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Blueline Bomber

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Since when does using averages illustrate a best case scenario?

Especially considering we all know that Ward's SV% over his career has been affected by circumstances outside of his control.

His first year as starter had him playing behind Lavi's "defense optional" system, which led to more breakaways/oddman rushes I've seen throughout a season. Who would have thought giving Commodore the go-ahead to pinch at every opportunity would come back to bite that team? His last couple of years, he's obviously struggled with injuries/confidence issues, which have also affected his SV%.

Now, I'm not saying it's not risky to keep Ward and hope that he rebounds, but to write him off before the season even begins seems a little presumptuous. And given the carousel of goaltenders we've had on this team that simply couldn't handle the way this team decides to play "defense", assuming that we could sign someone else (like Greise) and have him perform well is another risk.
 

What the Faulk

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Well, considering has last 2 years have been below .910, and goalies usually only tend to get worse, especially after multiple injuries, I don't expect that he'll post a better-than-average season. If you want to bump him up to .915, that's 6 fewer goals over his 2400 minutes.

Basically, the point is, his impact (over a replacement level goaltender) will be minimal for what he's paid. Francis electing to stand pat rather than being forced to is a mistake.

Boom Boom Anton said:
With all the discussions on goalies (which I agree need to be resolved, especially if Cam can't handle being 2nd fiddle) and the 3rd/4th line, this team will not go anywhere if Staal, Staal, Semin and Tlusty have similar production as last season.

WTF listed what it would take to shave off goals, but the flipside is that the Canes were 22nd in the league with goals scored with 205 which is anywhere from 10-20 below where they have been the last 5 years. I think a lot of that is due to the PP as well.

It's the problem with no depth. The Canes cannot really afford any key players having off years. If any of them do, it makes it extremely difficult to make the playoffs. Skinner, Staal, Staal, Semin, Tlusty, Faulk, Sekera, Lindholm and Goalies all really need to play well.

Yeah, I didn't touch the offense, and that's (obviously) a huge piece of the puzzle. I expect the players you listed to score more (as a whole) simply based on regression and development. But they need the bottom six to play better. They had some of the highest on-ice save percentages despite being wildly outshot in most cases. Radek Dvorak's PDO of 102 was only bested by...uh oh...Zach Boychuk.

(PDO is on-ice shooting percentage + save percentage. It almost always adds up to 100 for the majority of NHLers and is somewhat of a measurement of luck. Obviously the really good and really bad will be above/below slightly. Fun fact, over the last 7 years, the player with >2000 minutes that sits at the bottom of the NHL? Craig Adams. Chad LaRose is 30 slots higher.)
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Especially considering we all know that Ward's SV% over his career has been affected by circumstances outside of his control.

It certainly was within his control. Saying it wasn't is just an excuse. Ward just wasn't that good his first year, which isn't too unexpected as it was his first season as the #1. He steadily got better over the next 4-5 years (even with bad defensive teams), but he wasn't that good these last two season (even before injuries).
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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. But they need the bottom six to play better. They had some of the highest on-ice save percentages despite being wildly outshot in most cases.

Oh no doubt the bottom six needs to be better. My point is that even if the bottom six plays better, the team still goes nowhere unless the stars perform. If the stars and goalie all perform, the team likely makes the playoffs even if the bottom six isn't any better IMO.

Radek Dvorak's PDO of 102 was only bested by...uh oh...Zach Boychuk.
obviously sample size with Boychuk.
 

Joe McGrath

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Basically, the point is, his impact (over a replacement level goaltender) will be minimal for what he's paid. Francis electing to stand pat rather than being forced to is a mistake.

So best case scenario for him is that he's a replacement level player. So I ask you, how in the hell is Francis going to unload him? He is being forced to stand pat right now whether that's what he's telling you or not.
 

FlyingSquirrels

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At this point....Loki, Boychuk and Bowman (among others) all appear they will not be qualified and will hit the market tomorrow. I am assuming Jiri is qualified today.

Our depth, especially at F, is being seriously tested and I'm not exactly sure who is going to fill out Charlotte's roster.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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At this point....Loki, Boychuk and Bowman (among others) all appear they will not be qualified and will hit the market tomorrow. I am assuming Jiri is qualified today.

Our depth, especially at F, is being seriously tested and I'm not exactly sure who is going to fill out Charlotte's roster.

Has this been reported somewhere? or is it speculation because we haven't heard anything?
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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I'll be kind of disappointed if the Canes decided to sign Terry but let Boychuk go. Unless Boychuk wanted some guarantees that the Canes weren't willing to give, that just seems odd to me. Not the end of the world or even a big deal in the greater scheme of things, just odd.
 

tarheelhockey

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At this point....Loki, Boychuk and Bowman (among others) all appear they will not be qualified and will hit the market tomorrow. I am assuming Jiri is qualified today.

Our depth, especially at F, is being seriously tested and I'm not exactly sure who is going to fill out Charlotte's roster.

I don't get why we would let those first three just walk away. They're probably not gonna get much attention on the free agent market, so perhaps it's just a negotiation ploy, but it seems like a waste of depth if the intention is really to let them go.
 

Francis10

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I don't get why we would let those first three just walk away. They're probably not gonna get much attention on the free agent market, so perhaps it's just a negotiation ploy, but it seems like a waste of depth if the intention is really to let them go.

Agreed. Those 3 if not in the NHL provide depth in Charlotte and can be injury fill ins easily in the NHL. I still think Loki is perfect for PP2.

Read that Bryan Bickell is available for the right offer as CHI is looking to dump salary. Talk about a guy who would change the look of our team from being soft to having some bite.
 

Joe McGrath

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I don't get why we would let those first three just walk away. They're probably not gonna get much attention on the free agent market, so perhaps it's just a negotiation ploy, but it seems like a waste of depth if the intention is really to let them go.

Don't you have to give them a 10% raise if you qualify them?
 

tarheelhockey

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Don't you have to give them a 10% raise if you qualify them?

It depends how much they were making in their previous contract. In this case, Boychuk and Bowman would be due a 10% raise (from $550k and $600k respectively) and Loktionov would be due a 5% raise (from $725k).

Of course that's chicken scratch to an NHL team, a grand total of just over $100k. And presumably there's no real cost savings in having to replace them for similar salaries.
 

bluedevil58*

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My summer wishlist.

Based on the current contracts that we have and the holes that we have to fill and given our current self imposed cap situation my main wish is to not experience another train wreck season.
 

jeromeo87

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Jul 23, 2010
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Love it for the right contract. Would prefer a situation where he's the 4th line center with the ability to step up to 3 though.

Honestly if we could get both him and Richards somehow I'd be a happy camper.

He's set to make $3mil with a cap hit of 2.8 next year. Too much for a 4th line center. May be a good fit for 3rd line center.
 

Carolinas Identity*

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http://www.extraskater.com/player/328/kyle-brodziak

He was in way over his head as the 3C of a pretty bad possession team.

Richards would be fantastic to add as 3C, I agree there.

If we sign Richards, any chance you think we see the Staal's on the same line?

Eric//Jordan//Semin
Skinner//Richards//Lindholm
Gerbe//UFA (Brodziak)//Tlusty
Terry//UFA//Dwyer
Boychuk

Or some such? Not sure where that leaves Loktionov if we keep him.
 

nobuddy

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Oct 13, 2010
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If we sign Richards, any chance you think we see the Staal's on the same line?

Eric//Jordan//Semin
Skinner//Richards//Lindholm
Gerbe//UFA (Brodziak)//Tlusty
Terry//UFA//Dwyer
Boychuk

Or some such? Not sure where that leaves Loktionov if we keep him.

That's a good question.

I would say we'd see:

Tlusty-Eric-Semin
Skinner-Richards-Lindholm
Gerbe-Jordan-Dwyer
Terry-Nash-Boychuk

insert McGinn or UFA wingers where need be.
 
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