They're willing to pay him 8.25 and that's a deal.
Whay makes you think he will decljne this year?
Rumor has it the 1st line is going to be Laine Scheif Wheeler. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if his points total is higher this year.
Putting up more points doesn't necessarily mean he's a better player. You just basically said that he could put up more points if circumstances change. So you have to ask yourself how many points could someone else put in that same position? Is the difference worth the salary difference?
For example, a stat I saw in a good article I'll link below. Wheeler put up 6 5v3 points in his entire Jets career before last season. Then last season he put up 6 5v3 points. He doubled his output in one year. So did he suddenly become a much better playmaker 5v3? No, it's just that now he's the guy playing catch with the Jets right handed shooters, specifically Laine teeing up his unstoppable shot. But a lot of players could probably do that. So you have to consider how much value he's really adding with those assists. The credit for that specific increase in production should probably go elsewhere.
Consider this question. How many more assists would Jack Roslovic have if he was on PP1 feeding Laine/Scheifele/Buff from Wheeler's spot? A lot more. So we have to acknowledge that raw point production is at least somewhat a product of circumstances. And the tricky task is trying to determine the value each player is providing. As I've said before, I don't think Wheeler should get the bulk of the credit for his PP explosion this year.
Anyways, here's an article that I saw yesterday that goes over a lot of the points I've made in this thread. So I'm not the only one who doubts how good a deal this was.