Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent IV: Live Free or Be Discontented
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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- Dec 12, 2017
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My thoughts too. But, does the combo of Granderson Pearce Pillar and Grichuk produce more than any combo with Morales at DH.
I wonder how many ABs Morales gets. In my old school thinking that affects Smoak if he has to hit in front of him.
BlueForever75
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Unless you can unload Morales for another piece in bullpen with not having to pay too much of his salary, Morales stays. He's a switch hitter that will continue to contribute power numbers in spirts and will be useful to the Jays if they wish to contend this season.
Ideally, we wouldn't have Morales clogging up the base paths and DH role, but we live with what we have to and he isn't exactly a useless part on the team.
Ideally, we wouldn't have Morales clogging up the base paths and DH role, but we live with what we have to and he isn't exactly a useless part on the team.
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
Well, you'd like to get Solarte, Diaz, and Granderson as many AB's against RHP as possible, and Pearce as many AB's against LHP as possible. You also want to get Donaldson, Tulo and Travis off their feet once a week each (utilizing the DH spot for them). These are the reasons why you actively move Morales.
As for Smoak, he hit in front of Morales for the majority of 2017. I wouldn't really worry about that.
As much as I would like to see them find a way to move Morales, using him primarily against LHP and sparingly against RHP wouldn't be the worst idea.
Against LHP, Morales is the DH.
Against RHP, one of Solarte/Donaldson/Tulo/Travis is the DH with Solarte playing in the field for for one of the other guys. Morales gives you a decent bat on the bench.
It would give them a nice lineup in all situations and let everyone get plenty of days off.
Unfortunately, I think they're more likely to just plug Morales into the DH spot everyday because he's a switch hitter.
Against LHP, Morales is the DH.
Against RHP, one of Solarte/Donaldson/Tulo/Travis is the DH with Solarte playing in the field for for one of the other guys. Morales gives you a decent bat on the bench.
It would give them a nice lineup in all situations and let everyone get plenty of days off.
Unfortunately, I think they're more likely to just plug Morales into the DH spot everyday because he's a switch hitter.
Anthrax442
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Anthrax442
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phillipmike
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Im not one to move Morales for the hell of it. Has to make sense at some point. Kansas payroll sits at 114M and they want to sign Hosmer and get it down to 105-110M.
I am wondering if Hammel, Herrera and Soler for Morales and Carrera would work. Its 21.6M in 2017 for 12.9M - KC saves almost 9M in 2017 and 8M in total. KC's payroll goes down to 104M... They can signing Hosmer to 147M over 7 years - year 1 is work 6M, years 2 to 7 are worth 23.5M each - doubt the escalation would be that much right away in year 2 but an option getting them to 110M for 2018 and getting to keep Hosmer. Morales replaces Soler at DH, one of the Oakland arms replaces Hammel, the other replaces Herrera in the pen and Carrera is their 4th OF.
Jays DFA Soler, Hammel is your 5th starter and Herrera is your setup man. Jays still have 6M to spend or save in season.
Jays 2018: -8.7M
Jays 2019: +5.33M
Jays 2020: -4.67M
Jays lose close to 9M in 2018 but address two big holes; 5th starter and backend of the pen. They save 5.33M in 2020 and then lose 4.67M on 2020 when they already have a lot of money off the books and only 14M in commitments to date. If KC wanted to keep Soler then the Jays could simply send 9M (4.5M in 2018 and 2019) with Morales and you get the same outcome in 2018 and 2019 for the Jays.
Pearce is your DH. Maile, and Solarte on your bench. They can add a RH OFer to be your 4th guy and potentially roll with 8 in the pen.
I am wondering if Hammel, Herrera and Soler for Morales and Carrera would work. Its 21.6M in 2017 for 12.9M - KC saves almost 9M in 2017 and 8M in total. KC's payroll goes down to 104M... They can signing Hosmer to 147M over 7 years - year 1 is work 6M, years 2 to 7 are worth 23.5M each - doubt the escalation would be that much right away in year 2 but an option getting them to 110M for 2018 and getting to keep Hosmer. Morales replaces Soler at DH, one of the Oakland arms replaces Hammel, the other replaces Herrera in the pen and Carrera is their 4th OF.
Jays DFA Soler, Hammel is your 5th starter and Herrera is your setup man. Jays still have 6M to spend or save in season.
Jays 2018: -8.7M
Jays 2019: +5.33M
Jays 2020: -4.67M
Jays lose close to 9M in 2018 but address two big holes; 5th starter and backend of the pen. They save 5.33M in 2020 and then lose 4.67M on 2020 when they already have a lot of money off the books and only 14M in commitments to date. If KC wanted to keep Soler then the Jays could simply send 9M (4.5M in 2018 and 2019) with Morales and you get the same outcome in 2018 and 2019 for the Jays.
Pearce is your DH. Maile, and Solarte on your bench. They can add a RH OFer to be your 4th guy and potentially roll with 8 in the pen.
BlueForever75
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Ideally like your saying we would like to rotate the DH spot. But you do not get rid of Morales for nothing
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phillipmike
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I did none of the hard work - credit goes to a poster (BigG's) on the BA site; just made it look pretty.
phillipmike
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2018 Jays Spring Training Gear;
http://shop.cbssports.com/CBS_Toronto_Blue_Jays_Spring_Training_Gear
Pitchers and catchers report on Feb 14th, first workout is the 15th.
Position players report on Feb 19th and first workout is the 20th.
When do pitchers and catchers report? MLB spring training reporting dates for 2018
Less than 2 months to Opening Day - March 29th @ the Rogers Centre vs the Yankees: Stroman vs Stanton and Judge
http://shop.cbssports.com/CBS_Toronto_Blue_Jays_Spring_Training_Gear
Pitchers and catchers report on Feb 14th, first workout is the 15th.
Position players report on Feb 19th and first workout is the 20th.
When do pitchers and catchers report? MLB spring training reporting dates for 2018
Less than 2 months to Opening Day - March 29th @ the Rogers Centre vs the Yankees: Stroman vs Stanton and Judge
- Dec 12, 2017
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I’ll buy one those hats but not my favourite..
I like the one they wore the last two years.
I like the one they wore the last two years.
BlueForever75
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Having Morales on your team rather then nothing in return is not good asset management. Morales will be an integral player for our team this season. Bank on it. Pull this up later when I'm wrong if you want, but I doubt I will be.
Anthrax442
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Smoak looked like the old Smoak the last few weeks of the season, just sayin
TF97
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Now, here is a crazy idea that I had a while back, but I had never put much thought into it. There has been lots of discussion here regarding some type of trade with Kansas City involving Hammel and Morales. I don't expect this to be well received, but it is another way to get rid of Morales and fill the fifth starter slot. My idea is trading Morales to the White Sox for James Shields.
Shields is owed $21M this season with a $2M buyout for 2019, but San Diego is paying $10M of this years salary as well as covering the buyout for 2019. Morales is owed $23M total over the next two seasons, so the Blue Jays could also send the White Sox a prospect or some cash to offset the difference a little bit. Now, why might the White Sox want to do this? They would get Shields off their roster after his disastrous season and a half in Chicago, they would also add a league average bat who can fill their currently unimpressive DH in Matt Davidson, they would also acquire a prospect or cash along with Morales. Why might they not want to? They would be adding more salary in 2019 to get rid of Shields, thus adding more committed salary to a team that is likely to pursue one of the big free agents next offseason.
Despite Shields being one of the worst starters in baseball the last few seasons, he made a slight - but effective change to his mechanics last season. He dropped down to a 3/4 arm slot that lead to better results.
Shields' 2017 statistics. Post arm slot change (8/12/2017) is bolded
GS: 12 / 9
IP: 62.2 / 54.1
K%: 17.2% / 23.5%
BB%: 10.7% / 9.7%
ERA: 6.03 / 4.31
ERA-: 139 / 99
FIP: 6.82 / 4.81
FIP-: 151 / 108
GB %: 35.9% / 41.3%
HR/FB: 16.8% / 18.5%
Now, Shields was still walking too many batters and was homer prone. But here are Hammels numbers (besides GS/IP)
K%: 18%
BB%: 6%
ERA: 5.29
ERA-: 119
FIP: 4.37
FIP-: 102
GB%: 38%
HR/FB: 10.6%
Now, there are many other statistics and I could dive deeper, but I am satisfied with that. But since the mechanical change that Shields made, he no doubt improved and moved closer to performing like a league average starter rather than the disaster that he had been for over a year. I would still rather go after Hammel, but Shields is just another option in which the Blue Jays could creatively buy low on a veteran starter who has shown positive signs as well as get rid of Morales and open up the DH spot for either another free agent or a rotating platoon/group of players.
Here is a Fangraphs article that goes deeper on Shields and his mechanical changes for those who are interested
The On-the-Fly Reinvention of James Shields | FanGraphs Baseball
Shields is owed $21M this season with a $2M buyout for 2019, but San Diego is paying $10M of this years salary as well as covering the buyout for 2019. Morales is owed $23M total over the next two seasons, so the Blue Jays could also send the White Sox a prospect or some cash to offset the difference a little bit. Now, why might the White Sox want to do this? They would get Shields off their roster after his disastrous season and a half in Chicago, they would also add a league average bat who can fill their currently unimpressive DH in Matt Davidson, they would also acquire a prospect or cash along with Morales. Why might they not want to? They would be adding more salary in 2019 to get rid of Shields, thus adding more committed salary to a team that is likely to pursue one of the big free agents next offseason.
Despite Shields being one of the worst starters in baseball the last few seasons, he made a slight - but effective change to his mechanics last season. He dropped down to a 3/4 arm slot that lead to better results.
Shields' 2017 statistics. Post arm slot change (8/12/2017) is bolded
GS: 12 / 9
IP: 62.2 / 54.1
K%: 17.2% / 23.5%
BB%: 10.7% / 9.7%
ERA: 6.03 / 4.31
ERA-: 139 / 99
FIP: 6.82 / 4.81
FIP-: 151 / 108
GB %: 35.9% / 41.3%
HR/FB: 16.8% / 18.5%
Now, Shields was still walking too many batters and was homer prone. But here are Hammels numbers (besides GS/IP)
K%: 18%
BB%: 6%
ERA: 5.29
ERA-: 119
FIP: 4.37
FIP-: 102
GB%: 38%
HR/FB: 10.6%
Now, there are many other statistics and I could dive deeper, but I am satisfied with that. But since the mechanical change that Shields made, he no doubt improved and moved closer to performing like a league average starter rather than the disaster that he had been for over a year. I would still rather go after Hammel, but Shields is just another option in which the Blue Jays could creatively buy low on a veteran starter who has shown positive signs as well as get rid of Morales and open up the DH spot for either another free agent or a rotating platoon/group of players.
Here is a Fangraphs article that goes deeper on Shields and his mechanical changes for those who are interested
The On-the-Fly Reinvention of James Shields | FanGraphs Baseball
BlueForever75
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I wouldnt be totally against a deal for Shields or Hammel but only if the salaries even out going both ways. I would be willing to take a risk on one of those pitchers in the 5th spot in the rotation.
One thing is interesting, Moss was just traded by KC to Oakland opening up more salary and the DH spot in their lineup. If a deal of Morales to KC was ever likely now would be the time. Wonder if Oakland and Toronto were ever in talks for Morales? Move would have made sense as Morales was better then Moss and their intentions are to use him as a DH.
One thing is interesting, Moss was just traded by KC to Oakland opening up more salary and the DH spot in their lineup. If a deal of Morales to KC was ever likely now would be the time. Wonder if Oakland and Toronto were ever in talks for Morales? Move would have made sense as Morales was better then Moss and their intentions are to use him as a DH.
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
You're right! We should sell high! Soy! Soy! Soy!
Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball
BlueForever75
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Smoak looked like old Smoak for a month and half of the season. For a player that has never played that much in a season, his legs were gone you could tell with his swing. That being said, I anticipate another strong season from him with better conditioning to prevent it this season.
You guys really need to lay off. I remember when Bautista broke out we had the same bashers and nay sayers. Look what happened. Same with EE. Now everyone is crying we replaced EE with Morales. Be happy with what you have and hope things turn out for the better instead of being full of negativity.
phillipmike
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Andrew Susac » Statistics » Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
Susac DFA'd. I would take a filer as Maile has options. 27 years old, good defensively and a .350 OBP in the minors. Didnt strike out a lot either.
Susac DFA'd. I would take a filer as Maile has options. 27 years old, good defensively and a .350 OBP in the minors. Didnt strike out a lot either.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
I don’t think Smoak’s production drop off was due to being tired, he actually had a leg injury which probably attributed to his lack of production in the second half. And he still wasn’t the Smoak of old, he just couldn’t generate enough power from his legs to push those flyballs for extra base hits (5% HR/FB in Sept/Oct).
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