Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent IV: Live Free or Be Discontented

[zeke]

I like Jansen a lot, and you were indeed in early on him. (At least in 2017)

All that said, I think its clear that if Max Power is healthy coming out of Kennesaw, he's by far the better prospect.

Alas, he never was, and is now a bit of a shadow of what he could have been.

not trying to pump my own tires here - just saying that there were legit baseball reasons to prefer jansen even before this past season....and actually, arguably right from the start, as max wasn't impressive right out of the draft, and was always something i don't like - an older prospect still getting hyped mainly for raw athleticism, not actual baseball skill.

 

[BlueForever75]

not trying to pump my own tires here - just saying that there were legit baseball reasons to prefer jansen even before this past season....and actually, arguably right from the start, as max wasn't impressive right out of the draft, and was always something i don't like - an older prospect still getting hyped mainly for raw athleticism, not actual baseball skill.

What were your views on players like Bautista, EE, Gruber, Upshaw, Barfield, Travis, Biagini, Pannone, etc... All players that bloomed late and became players. Just curious.

 

[zeke]

What were your views on players like Bautista, EE, Gruber, Upshaw, Barfield, Travis, Biagini, Pannone, etc... All players that bloomed late and became players. Just curious.

pretty sure all those hitters you listed were in MLB at Max's age, not A+.

 

[zeke]

So heading into AA's final year as GM, BA ranked us the 9th best system. 3yrs later, we're at 7th, despite the Great Gutting.

Jays' BA Top-10 is split evenly between AA guys (Vladdy, Alford, Jansen, Urena, Borucki) and Shapkins guys (Bo, Pearson, Gurriel, Pardinho, Warmoth).

 

[Discoverer]

So heading into AA's final year as GM, BA ranked us the 9th best system. 3yrs later, we're at 7th, despite the Great Gutting.

Jays' BA Top-10 is split evenly between AA guys (Vladdy, Alford, Jansen, Urena, Borucki) and Shapkins guys (Bo, Pearson, Gurriel, Pardinho, Warmoth).

It seems weird that you refer to the "Great Gutting" and then talk about where the system was ranked before it happened.

Fun fact: after the "Great Gutting" (i.e. the 2016 offseason, not the 2015 offseason) BA had the system ranked 24th.

Regardless, the "emptied farm system" stuff was always stupid anyway. They always had a lot of good prospects, they just hadn't advanced to the upper levels of the minors yet.

 

[zeke]

It seems weird that you refer to the "Great Gutting" and then talk about where the system was ranked before it happened.

Fun fact: after the "Great Gutting" (i.e. the 2016 offseason, not the 2015 offseason) BA had the system ranked 24th.

Regardless, the "emptied farm system" stuff was always stupid anyway. They always had a lot of good prospects, they just hadn't advanced to the upper levels of the minors yet.

I was trying to point out the system that AA "gutted" (i.e. the 9th best system), and how long it took to completely ungut it.

 

[BlueForever75]

pretty sure all those hitters you listed were in MLB at Max's age, not A+.

My point is that players like EE, Bautista, Gruber, Upshaw etc... never became great players until they were 25/26. In Bautista and EE cases they were both 29.

Pentecost is 23 years old and has been injured. But when not, was better then any of those players mentioned at that age. Giving up on a 23 year old due to injuries is just plain dumb considering he is a position player. Maybe catcher isn't for him long term, but it wasn't for Donaldson either and he only became good at 25 years old when he moved over to third.

 

[Discoverer]

I was trying to point out the system that AA "gutted" (i.e. the 9th best system), and how long it took to completely ungut it.

Ahhhh ok... that's fair.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

not trying to pump my own tires here - just saying that there were legit baseball reasons to prefer jansen even before this past season....and actually, arguably right from the start, as max wasn't impressive right out of the draft, and was always something i don't like - an older prospect still getting hyped mainly for raw athleticism, not actual baseball skill.

That's not really fair to Max considering everything that happened from the draft onward. The kid was quite the talent. I mean, AA took him over Trea Turner, so there was certainly something there.

So heading into AA's final year as GM, BA ranked us the 9th best system. 3yrs later, we're at 7th, despite the Great Gutting.

Jays' BA Top-10 is split evenly between AA guys (Vladdy, Alford, Jansen, Urena, Borucki) and Shapkins guys (Bo, Pearson, Gurriel, Pardinho, Warmoth).

Makes sense. Full marks to AA for selling out on Vlad, and having faith in Alofrd. I imagine some could\would\will argue that some credit goes to the current regime for Jansen\Borucki's development.

Regarding this year's ranking, its kind of funny seeing a discrepancy of 10 spots between BBA and KLaw.

It seems weird that you refer to the "Great Gutting" and then talk about where the system was ranked before it happened.

Fun fact: after the "Great Gutting" (i.e. the 2016 offseason, not the 2015 offseason) BA had the system ranked 24th.

Regardless, the "emptied farm system" stuff was always stupid anyway. They always had a lot of good prospects, they just hadn't advanced to the upper levels of the minors yet.

Very stupid. I never thought I'd see so many people upset about Jairo Labourt.

 

[zeke]

My point is that players like EE, Bautista, Gruber, Upshaw etc... never became great players until they were 25/26. In Bautista and EE cases they were both 29.

Pentecost is 23 years old and has been injured. But when not, was better then any of those players mentioned at that age. Giving up on a 23 year old due to injuries is just plain dumb considering he is a position player. Maybe catcher isn't for him long term, but it wasn't for Donaldson either and he only became good at 25 years old when he moved over to third.

Pentecost will turn 25 before this season starts, and hasn't even reached AA.

 

[zeke]

That's not really fair to Max considering everything that happened from the draft onward. The kid was quite the talent. I mean, AA took him over Trea Turner, so there was certainly something there.

no doubt, but you know I like me my stats, and for me a drafted prospect's first taste of pro ball is a HUGE marker as to what he actually is (moreso than draft position), and Max' was pedestrian, despite already being old for the level they first introduced him at. I mean, it was an even less impressive debut than Warmoth's, and Warmoth wasn't impressive. I get optimism if the toolsy prospect is a baby (like alford was - though even 17/18yr old alford showed more promise in his brief debuts in terms of bb/k and iso), but a 21yr old college guy just has to hit the ground running or else imo it's pretty clear immediately that the pick was a bad one.

And I don't think this is something scouts would disagree with too much, tbh. If they re-drafted last year's draft right now, I think Pearson would likely be picked right near the top of the draft, while the likes of Warmoth and Danner would drop down considerably.

 

[zeke]

Very stupid. I never thought I'd see so many people upset about Jairo Labourt.

"Have you SEEN what Nick Wells is doing!"

 

[zeke]

Good stuff:


AP Sports @AP_Sports
BREAKING: Cleveland Indians removing Chief Wahoo logo from game jerseys and caps, starting in 2019 season

 

[Discoverer]

Good stuff:


AP Sports @AP_Sports
BREAKING: Cleveland Indians removing Chief Wahoo logo from game jerseys and caps, starting in 2019 season

That's long overdue. The complaints about it are going to be hilarious, though.

 

[zeke]

the cleveland Cukcs?

 

[phillipmike]

Its Blair so take it for what it is worth;

The Blue Jays were in enough on free-agent Lorenzo Cain that they called his agent to check in just before making the trade for Randal Grichuk. I still think the Jays add one more outfield bat before spring training.

 

[zeke]

That paragraph doesn't make sense. If they were making sure with Cain before they got Grichuk, then wouldn't that mean that they were only looking to add one of them?

 

[phillipmike]

That paragraph doesn't make sense. If they were making sure with Cain before they got Grichuk, then wouldn't that mean that they were only looking to add one of them?

I did say "Its Blair so take it for what it is worth"

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

no doubt, but you know I like me my stats, and for me a drafted prospect's first taste of pro ball is a HUGE marker as to what he actually is (moreso than draft position), and Max' was pedestrian, despite already being old for the level they first introduced him at. I mean, it was an even less impressive debut than Warmoth's, and Warmoth wasn't impressive. I get optimism if the toolsy prospect is a baby (like alford was - though even 17/18yr old alford showed more promise in his brief debuts in terms of bb/k and iso), but a 21yr old college guy just has to hit the ground running or else imo it's pretty clear immediately that the pick was a bad one.

And I don't think this is something scouts would disagree with too much, tbh. If they re-drafted last year's draft right now, I think Pearson would likely be picked right near the top of the draft, while the likes of Warmoth and Danner would drop down considerably.

Understood, and I see the merit in that. Its hard for me to make that kind of determination after 25 games though. I tend to throw those first forays into pro ball, unless they are quite long, out for the most part. Under the same though process, David Cooper would have looked like the next Jon Olerud.

As far as Warmoth is concerned, given the profile, and the tools he's advertised as having, I'd say he performed as expected.

Entering pro ball after a full college season, and moving, and all the other stuff that comes along with it should be taken into account. As long as they aren't K-ing at a 35% clip, I'm usually good. Brian Dozier didn't hit a home run in his first 97 games (437 PA's) in pro ball.

 

[phillipmike]

So heading into AA's final year as GM, BA ranked us the 9th best system. 3yrs later, we're at 7th, despite the Great Gutting.

Jays' BA Top-10 is split evenly between AA guys (Vladdy, Alford, Jansen, Urena, Borucki) and Shapkins guys (Bo, Pearson, Gurriel, Pardinho, Warmoth).

2018 Organizational Talent Rankings | BaseballAmerica.com

2018 BASEBALL AMERICA ORGANIZATIONAL TALENT RANKINGS
Toronto Blue Jays - Ranked 7th
2017: 20 | 2016: 24 | 2015: 9 | 2014: 15 | 2013: 12

 

[Discoverer]

If they re-drafted last year's draft right now, I think Pearson would likely be picked right near the top of the draft, while the likes of Warmoth and Danner would drop down considerably.

It's pretty amazing to think the Jays took guys at 28 and 66 the last two years who would easily be in conversation for 1st overall in their respective drafts.

 

[Discoverer]

That paragraph doesn't make sense. If they were making sure with Cain before they got Grichuk, then wouldn't that mean that they were only looking to add one of them?

For sure. I felt the same way about the Yelich stuff. A lot of people kept saying how the "Jays were the only other team close on Yelich" comments meant they're still trying to add a top outfielder, but there was never any indication as to the timeline and nothing to suggest the Jays were still discussing that move after the Grichuk trade.

 

[phillipmike]

For sure. I felt the same way about the Yelich stuff. A lot of people kept saying how the "Jays were the only other team close on Yelich" comments meant they're still trying to add a top outfielder, but there was never any indication as to the timeline and nothing to suggest the Jays were still discussing that move after the Grichuk trade.

I see it as the FO thought the opportunity to get a player like Yelich with his affordability and control was too great to not put your best foot forward. Players like him with his control arent available often so they would acquire the player if possible and worry about fit after - similar how the Brewers went after him with OF not being a need. It was all about the player, availability timing and cost more so the position he plays. That's how i think they viewed Yelich vs someone like Cain- regardless of who we had, Yelich was always an option whether we had Grichuk or not. Not that they dont like Cain but players like him are available every off-season (30+ 4-5 WAR player) vs a 26 year old 4-5 WAR player with 5 years of control. Just my two cents.

They would make the exception for Yelich's case but i agree with you guys that i dont see them adding another OF unless it is a ridiculous bargain or a great opportunity player-wise.

 

[BlueForever75]

Pentecost will turn 25 before this season starts, and hasn't even reached AA.

Long ways until 29 when past superstars were loved by you yourself.

 

[BlueForever75]

I did say "Its Blair so take it for what it is worth"

Something tells me there are more moves coming. Maybe Pillar is gone??? And we trade for one of the Milwaukee extras? Or maybe bring in another platoon player like Melky?