Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent IV: Live Free or Be Discontented

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Those 3 guys had a combined 1.6 WAR last year.

This team wasn't good enough last year and they've so far acquired no-one of substance and basically all the same holes still remain. Still no production from DH and no production or defense from the corner OF positions. Still a mixed-up mess in middle infield. Still no quality backup catcher. 2 starters on the roster who had over a 100 OPS+ last year. No upgrades to the pitching staff so far.

If Sanchez can come back and stay healthy, and if Smoak duplicates last year's performance, maybe this team can creep up to the .500 mark.

I guess I can do a public service while I wait for my food to arrive.

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

Depth Charts » Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Eyedea]

They were combined for 2.7 fWAR, which was like a 4 win swing compared to the Goins/Barney/Bautista trio last year.

 

[Kurtz]

I guess I can do a public service while I wait for my food to arrive.

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

Depth Charts » Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

Pretty good - puts us right into the thick for that 2nd wildcard- ahead of Minny. I do wonder if they've factored in the fact that Minny will get to feast on the White Sox, Royals and Tigers for a good deal of the season though.

 

[Eyedea]

Got an answer for the Pearson omission:



Alford #47
Bichette #14
Vlad #3
-------
Acuna #2
Ohtani #1

MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

 

[canucksfan]

Looks like no Pearson

 

[Nineteen67]

Pretty good - puts us right into the thick for that 2nd wildcard- ahead of Minny. I do wonder if they've factored in the fact that Minny will get to feast on the White Sox, Royals and Tigers for a good deal of the season though.

How do the Twins usually fair against their division?

If the Jays can win 40+ against the AL East they should be in great shape. They play the NL East in inter league , which hopefully will result in a wining inter league record.

Let's assume they add a dependable 5th SP and 85 wins should be the floor for this team. Anyone else they add will only improve the win total.

 

[canucksfan]

Will they also update the top 30 Jays prospects as well in the next few days?

 

[phillipmike]

I thought it was odd that he ranks Jays prospects at #2, 17, 44, and 100 and still thinks the system is only 17th best, but then someone mentioned Law always seems to value a high floor over a high ceiling. In that way, I guess it does make sense since he's probably more interested in systems with a ton of decent prospects instead of a few great ones (which is stupid, of course, but it explains how he arrived at 17th).

I still think Jansen is being horribly underrated.

Im with you on Jansen. I had him as a top 5 catching prospect bordering top 3 and if he gets off to a good start in Triple A he might be pushing himself on the team late this season or early next. And im the last guy to praise a catching prospect. Outside of the elite like a Posey... i think they are swing and miss.

Speaking of catchers if you guys want a good laugh go look at MLB.com's top 10 list for catchers going into 2018. 7+ lists and only one had Martin and he was at 10.

Guys like Suzuki, Avila, Flowers, Chrinos and Pina were on some lists instead of Martin, Lucroy, McCann and Perez... yes Salvador Perez.

 

[phillipmike]

Will they also update the top 30 Jays prospects as well in the next few days?

Doubt it. They say "coming in February"... might update 1-3 teams a day so it could be a few days or the end of February.

 

[Discoverer]

i think they are swing and miss.

That's not a problem for Jansen.

 

[canucksfan]

Doubt it. They say "coming in February"... might update 1-3 teams a day so it could be a few days or the end of February.

So it will be a bit of time then.

Jansen moved up three levels and he dominated all of them. He will be 22 to start the year and he seems to get no recognition. Defense seems to be okay too.

 

[Battle Lin]

i think we're darvish away from contending

 

[hockeywiz542]

Whenever it is that Martin is done in Toronto, there will be a homegrown catcher ready to step up and take charge. In addition to the current backup — Luke Maile, 26, obtained last year from the Rays as a defensive upgrade over Martin’s other backups — there is catching quality percolating down on the farm.

Of MLB.com’s current listing of the top 30 Jays prospects, five claim squatter’s rights on the diamond and any one of them might be Martin’s replacement, depending on individual development and timing.

The five ranked Jays’ catching prospects are No. 8 Max Pentecost, No. 9 Hagen Danner, No. 15 Riley Adams, No. 16 Dan Jansen and No. 21 Reese McGuire. This is the deepest set of receivers in the system since 2012, when J.P. Arencibia was the major-league starter with minor leaguers Travis d’Arnaud, Yan Gomes, A.J. Jimenez and Brian Jeroloman.

The Jays understand they need to have a consistency of philosophy behind the plate, so that no matter which level any of these catchers are at, they are handling the pitching staff basically the same way Martin is working with his hurlers at the major-league level.

To effect that goal, the Jays have a roving catching instructor who works closely with all of the receivers at the minor-league camp, then travels around the system during the season to make sure organization philosophies are being followed. That instructor is former Jays catcher Ken Huckaby, who fans might remember for his frantic race to cover third base on a heads-up play by the Yankees’ Derek Jeter on opening day of 2003, which ended with Huckaby crushing the captain’s shoulder and sidelining Jeter for 36 games.

 

[Gargyn]

i think we're darvish away from contending

I see too many question marks on offence actually.

 

[Drew311]

I'm surprised Pentecost is still ranked above Jansen. Max is 24 and hasn't played above A ball. I know Jansen doesn't have a long track record of offensive ability, but what he did last year as a 22 year old was pretty spectacular. It's amazing what being able to see can do for a hitter.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Who wrote that awful article? MLB.com haven't updated their team top 30's yet so no those aren't how MLB.com currently ranks the Jays catching prospects. Referencing that list now is kinda pointless. If they want to write about the Jays catching prospects fine but that list is way out of date, might as well just list the writers own personal rankings.

Jansen will definitely be first among catchers when the new list comes out. After that it's interesting. They were hgher on Danner than I was with their current list but he had a really bad year. Adams had a goos year. McGuire was really good when he came back from injury, and Pentecost still has a bunch of question marks still unanswered regarding his ability to catch long term, so I would say those 4 have all kinda compressed, they probably will still have Danner 2nd though given how high they were on him initially, and his ability to pitch if catching doesn't work out.

 

[canucksfan]

TBH I don't know if Pentecost deserves to be in the top 30. So many question marks.

Although he played in Bluefield last year, Ryan Gold is another catching prospect to keep an eye on. Had a good year in Bluefield. No clue about his defense though.

 

[zeke]

personally i thought jansen was a better prospect than pentecost even before this year.

 

[BlueForever75]

If it wasn't for the poorly managed injury situation with Pentecost he would have already been in AAA and close to being an everyday contributor already. The kid can flat out hit and play when he isn't injured. As for Janssen, he's an up and comer but if Pentecost is healthy this season he will separate himself from everyone and be the first in line when the time comes.

 

[Morgs]

If it wasn't for the poorly managed injury situation with Pentecost he would have already been in AAA and close to being an everyday contributor already. The kid can flat out hit and play when he isn't injured. As for Janssen, he's an up and comer but if Pentecost is healthy this season he will separate himself from everyone and be the first in line when the time comes.

If he could prove he can hit higher levels, wouldn't that mean we would have had to place him on the 40 man? - Especially if he still has a chance at being an everyday catcher?

If we didn't, wouldn't that mean someone would have taken him in the rule-5?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

personally i thought jansen was a better prospect than pentecost even before this year.

I like Jansen a lot, and you were indeed in early on him. (At least in 2017)

All that said, I think its clear that if Max Power is healthy coming out of Kennesaw, he's by far the better prospect.

Alas, he never was, and is now a bit of a shadow of what he could have been.

 

[BlueForever75]

If he could prove he can hit higher levels, wouldn't that mean we would have had to place him on the 40 man? - Especially if he still has a chance at being an everyday catcher?

If we didn't, wouldn't that mean someone would have taken him in the rule-5?

Its all about asset management. Pentecost hasn't played higher then A ball due to injuries. This past season was the only one in past 3 that he had semi regular at bats. The Jays gambled that no team would waste a roster spot on him especially at the catcher position, and it worked out. Exposing a Jannsen or McGuire would have been more riskier. So this way they kept 3 prospects at the C position while only having to expose one will a very low prospect of being selected. Played really well by Shatkins to be honest.

 

[BlueForever75]

I like Jansen a lot, and you were indeed in early on him. (At least in 2017)

All that said, I think its clear that if Max Power is healthy coming out of Kennesaw, he's by far the better prospect.

Alas, he never was, and is now a bit of a shadow of what he could have been.

Still too early to throw in towel on Pentecost. Could become a late bloomer as others we have seen. Give it some time. This season will be make or break for him. Supposedly his shoulder is in the best shape it has ever been in a very long time. Maybe he isn't a future C but more so a 1B or OF. He has the power and hitting eye.

 

[Morgs]

Its all about asset management. Pentecost hasn't played higher then A ball due to injuries. This past season was the only one in past 3 that he had semi regular at bats. The Jays gambled that no team would waste a roster spot on him especially at the catcher position, and it worked out. Exposing a Jannsen or McGuire would have been more riskier. So this way they kept 3 prospects at the C position while only having to expose one will a very low prospect of being selected. Played really well by Shatkins to be honest.

Ah I misunderstood you. I thought you meant "he should have been playing higher in the minors last season", not "they f***ed up with his injuries".

Too bad though, I remember thinking he might turn into Buster Posey at one point.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Still too early to throw in towel on Pentecost. Could become a late bloomer as others we have seen. Give it some time. This season will be make or break for him. Supposedly his shoulder is in the best shape it has ever been in a very long time. Maybe he isn't a future C but more so a 1B or OF. He has the power and hitting eye.

I'm not throwing in the towel, per se. However, he is clearly #3 on the minor league depth chart. Now, the other two prospects have had their injury concerns as well, however both are a far better bet to remain behind the plate.

Regarding his position, he's lost a bit of athleticism since he was drafted, whereas at 21 I would've bought him as a passable LF, he very much so looks like a catcher now.