Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[gojetsgo]

You get it to 4.8 that way but Boeser gets 6.65. Still 2 mil short. What happens when we get Ehlers, Barron, Appleton back? Use Stanley and we need a replacement player on the roster.

In reality we have more than 1.3, but not enough for Boeser unless there is retention in the deal. Van needs to free up cap space. That's why they are trading an impact player. A little retention makes the price go up.

I'm not arguing against the idea. But the cap needs to be dealt with in any proposal. The easy way is retention, but that doesn't come for free.

we don't need it to be boeser I was just saying we have more cap then it seems, when everyone comes back we send the callups down and gain capspace and we don't need a stanley replacement we can just carry 7 d instead of 8

 

[Gm0ney]

Instead of Boeser for expensive, we should get Garland for cheap...

 

[Huffer]

Instead of Boeser for expensive, we should get Garland for cheap...

My thought as well. Not saying it's a true value, but a poster on the mains offered Garland for Lundmark and a 2nd. MUCH rather pay that price than a high price for Boeser, who has had injury and skating concerns.

 

[DRW204]

 

[DRW204]

The no-Maurice or Huddy effect

 

[MardyBum]

All around good too, and they've been getting better as the season goes on.(with the odd blip)

 

[DRW204]

 

[DRW204]

I didn't catch all of last nights game but apparently they ended off with heinola-Dillon as a pairing? i know it's pre-season and can't read so much into it, but the stats on those 2 together appear to be pretty solid.
wonder if he'll continue with that pair

 

[voyageur]

I didn't catch all of last nights game but apparently they ended off with heinola-Dillon as a pairing? i know it's pre-season and can't read so much into it, but the stats on those 2 together appear to be pretty solid.
wonder if he'll continue with that pair

I would consider last night's 3rd period a bit of practice time for that pairing. Samberg and Pionk should have some chemistry from practicing together in the offseason. Makes it easier on the road, I'm not sure a Samberg-Heinola pairing wouldn't get owned by some veteran lines.

 

[SLAYER]

I didn't catch all of last nights game but apparently they ended off with heinola-Dillon as a pairing? i know it's pre-season and can't read so much into it, but the stats on those 2 together appear to be pretty solid.
wonder if he'll continue with that pair

I recall Dillon saying in pre-season how much he enjoyed playing with Heinola.

 

[DRW204]

I recall Dillon saying in pre-season how much he enjoyed playing with Heinola.

interesting. since Dillon has been here he's been at his best with schmidt. heinola will need to continue to play well to earn trust and the promotion

 

[SLAYER]

interesting. since he's been here he's been at his best with schmidt. heinola will need to continue to play well to earn trust and the promotion

Absolutely. Do we know how bad Schmidt's injury is? Maybe Heinola will actually get a little run of games.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Absolutely. Do we know how bad Schmidt's injury is? Maybe Heinola will actually get a little run of games.

Bones said 6 weeks I think. It's not a concussion it's a shoulder injury

 

[Jet]

Bones said 6 weeks I think. It's not a concussion it's a shoulder injury

I called a shoulder injury but then they said he was in confusion protocol so both I guess.

Jeanot is a beast. I'd love to have him on the Jets

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I called a shoulder injury but then they said he was in confusion protocol so both I guess.

Jeanot is a beast. I'd love to have him on the Jets

He passed protocol. It was just shoulder plus some whip lash effect.

 

[DRW204]

 

[DRW204]

Thnx for this @WPGChief
Like any with or withouts need to consider who the alternatives are.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Was at the game today and chaos seemed to follow around Neal Pionk. He was just downright awful, awful, awful.

Would Bowness ever bench a veteran on the back end because #4 sure seems to need it.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Based on the amount of concern shown about Pionk's game I tried to look closer at his play.
Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to say that what people are saying isn't true... I'm just not seeing as much bad play as is being reported here. I'll have to keep watching to see more examples.

 

[voyageur]

Based on the amount of concern shown about Pionk's game I tried to look closer at his play.
Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to say that what people are saying isn't true... I'm just not seeing as much bad play as is being reported here. I'll have to keep watching to see more examples.

I watched the 2nd and 3rd periods on rerun, so I'll try to give an objective view on how Pionk played in those periods.

2nd period he made some plays, early on stopped a Canuck in his tracks with a good stand up check creating a turnover. Another shift he created a 3-1 by winning a loose puck on the boards, and made a great pass to Scheifele. He was on the ice for the 3rd and 4th Canuck goals. 3rd one he had to cover a 2-1 on the blue line because of the long change 2nd and a bad line change, that was moved to Horvat, Pionk had coverage on him. Horvat scored from the circle, a shot that probably should have been stopped. His work on the Vancouver PP goal was good. I watched him closely battle Brock Boeser in front of the net, and Boeser didn't get any touches because of good stick position, and strength from #4. Goal came off a tip from the slot, on Kuhlman's coverage. He had one shift that was pretty rough, again because of the long change, and the inability to get off the ice as a RD, because of turnovers, where he was on for some scoring chances, and lost a puck battle. Pionk also had 2 good scoring chances below the circles in the offensive zone. The GWG came off a good rim pass from him. I tracked him in the 2nd as 100% passing efficiency and zone clears.

3rd period was rougher I counted at least 2 turnovers in the defensive zone, both on his backhand, a couple of pucks that went over his stick as well. Pionk gave up one grade A chance on the PK, because the opposing player lifted his stick, which I see a lot more of these days. He was on for other scoring chances against off the rushes, as Vancouver was successful at moving puck behind the d, including Morrissey.

I think he got promoted with Morrissey because 44-2 were a -2 in the first period, Morrissey had some struggles, and De Melo had one goal against that was his coverage. In a way it worked because Dylan De Melo was on for the last 3 Jets goals scored, including 2 ES paired with Samberg. Though I don't think that the defense created all that much offense other than the shorty, a couple of those Pionk chances, and Dillon's breakaway pass for Lowry.

Putting Dillon and Schmidt back together seemed to work. I think Bowness has a more consistent defensive unit with those 2.

He may run Pionk with Josh for a stint, but I'd be surprised if that lasted. De Melo's defensive awareness and support, generally complements Morrissey's game.

I think Pionk could find himself on the 3rd pair at some point, but he is still one of the best puck managers and distributors on the team. Offensive zone I see some potential from him to contribute, as he is very good on the pinches, but defensively Samberg and Pionk could be an adventure, they are probably the two most inconsistent defensemen on the team.

 

[JetsFan815]

Based on the amount of concern shown about Pionk's game I tried to look closer at his play.
Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to say that what people are saying isn't true... I'm just not seeing as much bad play as is being reported here. I'll have to keep watching to see more examples.

I agree with this as well. Pionk is getting dragged over the coals and some advanced stats agree but I am just not seeing him be as much of a liability as many claim and I've been watching him closely for a couple of games. Can't fully ignore the stats but my eyes tell a different story so far. It's not the same situation as guys like Myers who had me screaming at the screen multiple times a night with their defensive play.

 

[lomiller1]

I agree with this as well. Pionk is getting dragged over the coals and some advanced stats agree but I am just not seeing him be as much of a liability as many claim and I've been watching him closely for a couple of games. Can't fully ignore the stats but my eyes tell a different story so far. It's not the same situation as guys like Myers who had me screaming at the screen multiple times a night with their defensive play.

Human nature is to assume that "I notice X, therefor X is the most important thing", but this doesn't really work. Historically the biggest problem Pionk has is that he's terrible at preventing zone entries. In one analysis of a stretch of games in his last year with the Rangers teams were successful in establishing offensive zone possession over 95% of the time when they attacked his side of the ice.

This won't show up when you look for "defensive mistakes" but it all but assures he'll be hemmed in his own zone most of the night.

 

[WPGChief]

Human nature is to assume that "I notice X, therefor X is the most important thing", but this doesn't really work. Historically the biggest problem Pionk has is that he's terrible at preventing zone entries. In one analysis of a stretch of games in his last year with the Rangers teams were successful in establishing offensive zone possession over 95% of the time when they attacked his side of the ice.

This won't show up when you look for "defensive mistakes" but it all but assures he'll be hemmed in his own zone most of the night.

I think you're the closest on this, because honestly I'm not quite sure why Pionk is having quite a rough go at it over the last month.

Based on Corey's All Three Zones microstats tracking - sample size alert, only 11 games tracked with most of them in October, a few in December - he shows up well based on what people were impressed by in his Canadian Division season: retrieves the puck well and moves it up in the DZ, and didn't turnover the puck himself when carrying it out. That being said, boy, the Jets in this sample had a lot of entries against that led to scoring chances.

Maybe the repeated scenario is something as such: Pionk is too slow or doesn't step up at the blueline, Hellebuyck makes a save, maybe there's a rebound or two that Hellebuyck also saves, and Pionk finally goes in to retrieve the puck and move it out, somewhat successfully most of the time.

Watching the game yesterday and the previous one, there's no doubt that Pionk still does most of the things he's good at (passing out of the DZ). Even I recall a few plays at 5v5 where he stopped a cross-seam pass by VAN and quickly moved it out. But (IMO) these days, he hasn't been doing that as often as he's been making plays to avoid situations - or rather, not making plays - that lead to dangerous shots and chances against, and it just shows up everywhere:

• In terms of 5v5 rate stats (CA/60 and xGA/60):
  • Fine in November - 53.46 and 2.49
  • Horrid since December (cutting this to just Dec 15+) - 64.93 and 3.53
    • This is over 10 more shots and nearly 1.5 xGA relative to team average in this span.
• In terms of Evolving-Hockey's RAPMs, this recent stretch has dragged his overall numbers to be amongst the worst in the league, never mind the team:
  • xGA/60 RAPM: 0.395 (3rd worst amongst 249 defencemen with 100 minutes)
  • CA/60 RAPM: 5.82 (2nd worst, behind only Erik Gudbranson)
• Just a plain ol' WOWY showing how bad things are get in the DZ when he's on the ice versus off it.

Meanwhile, his Quality of Teammates is best on the team only being slightly better than Morrissey's, and Quality of Competition slightly easier than 44 (but is 2nd on the team) - but really the percentage points difference in the top 4 of Jets defencemen isn't even 1% in either. In other words: Pionk is getting the same teammates and same competition as the three other Jets top 4, yet is producing the worst results in the defensive zone by far (lately).

Something's off, and if it is injury as some local media has hinted at, then there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that he should be resting to reset and not trying to play through it, especially now that the team is healthier in its forwards and on the backend, and with Heinola putting together a strong stretch of games that is deserving of more TOI to see what's there - especially when the Jets are essentially playing every 2nd night up until the All-Star Break.

 

[LowLefty]

I think you're the closest on this, because honestly I'm not quite sure why Pionk is having quite a rough go at it over the last month.

Based on Corey's All Three Zones microstats tracking - sample size alert, only 11 games tracked with most of them in October, a few in December - he shows up well based on what people were impressed by in his Canadian Division season: retrieves the puck well and moves it up in the DZ, and didn't turnover the puck himself when carrying it out. That being said, boy, the Jets in this sample had a lot of entries against that led to scoring chances.

Maybe the repeated scenario is something as such: Pionk is too slow or doesn't step up at the blueline, Hellebuyck makes a save, maybe there's a rebound or two that Hellebuyck also saves, and Pionk finally goes in to retrieve the puck and move it out, somewhat successfully most of the time.

Watching the game yesterday and the previous one, there's no doubt that Pionk still does most of the things he's good at (passing out of the DZ). Even I recall a few plays at 5v5 where he stopped a cross-seam pass by VAN and quickly moved it out. But (IMO) these days, he hasn't been doing that as often as he's been making plays to avoid situations - or rather, not making plays - that lead to dangerous shots and chances against, and it just shows up everywhere:

• In terms of 5v5 rate stats (CA/60 and xGA/60):
  • Fine in November - 53.46 and 2.49
  • Horrid since December (cutting this to just Dec 15+) - 64.93 and 3.53
    • This is over 10 more shots and nearly 1.5 xGA relative to team average in this span.
• In terms of Evolving-Hockey's RAPMs, this recent stretch has dragged his overall numbers to be amongst the worst in the league, never mind the team:
  • xGA/60 RAPM: 0.395 (3rd worst amongst 249 defencemen with 100 minutes)
  • CA/60 RAPM: 5.82 (2nd worst, behind only Erik Gudbranson)
• Just a plain ol' WOWY showing how bad things are get in the DZ when he's on the ice versus off it.

Meanwhile, his Quality of Teammates is best on the team only being slightly better than Morrissey's, and Quality of Competition slightly easier than 44 (but is 2nd on the team) - but really the percentage points difference in the top 4 of Jets defencemen isn't even 1% in either. In other words: Pionk is getting the same teammates and same competition as the three other Jets top 4, yet is producing the worst results in the defensive zone by far (lately).

Something's off, and if it is injury as some local media has hinted at, then there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that he should be resting to reset and not trying to play through it, especially now that the team is healthier in its forwards and on the backend, and with Heinola putting together a strong stretch of games that is deserving of more TOI to see what's there - especially when the Jets are essentially playing every 2nd night up until the All-Star Break.

Looks like he's lost a step to me -
No way to know if injury related although I would assume Bones is aware of his game at this point and I'd think he's sit an injured dman if needed. The local media are only guessing at an injury - there has been nothing to confirm.

One thing about Pionk that can impact his game, is his skating. IMO, he probably works twice as hard to get from A to B as a guy like JoMo - he has a short stride and has to pump hard to make any headway.
That, along with the added offense these guys have added under Bones systems, might be taking a toll on his ability to keep up.

One thing I'm pretty sure of - he is losing his coverage in the center of the dzone - and struggling with any kind of cycle that has them chasing. Maybe less minutes for a few games - or if injured, sit him for a couple. Personally, I don't see anything in his game that looks injury related - he's still working hard along the walls - but struggles to keep up. Looks like he's lost a step.

 

[Turin]

Man I was super wrong about Bowness, if not just because of what he's done with Morrissey. The main component missing with WPG was that go-to Dman since Byfuglien.