GDT: Winnipeg @ Calgary: Sept 30th 7:00 PM MT (NOT on TV)

[Anglesmith]

Lucky in the sense that it was higher offensive numbers than expected for all 3 guys and lucky in the sense of watching all the games last year and they had a ton of fluke/bad goals.

Backlund and Frolik are not terribly good offensively or creative players and Tkachuk is hard to tell because of how you he is so I see them struggling to match those numbers again with such little offensive talent between them.

I really don't think that's true. Backlund saw all of 6 more points last year than in the previous campaign. That basically fits the trend of him getting better each year, and last year he had the best linemates he's ever had with the addition of a high-skill player in Matthew Tkachuk. He also saw more powerplay time than every before, and had the most shots he's ever had in a season. Frolik had 44 points last season, after scoring 42, 42 then being on 41 point pace in the three prior seasons. Tkachuk himself was a 6th overall pick, and had respectable numbers as a rookie given his draft position. I would say that if these results didn't match your expectation, then your expectation was actually a random drop-off, and not the status quo.

Fluke/bad goals is not a realistic argument over the length of time that a season encompasses. Every player in the league, even Crosby or McDavid, has a highlight reel of flukey goals during a season. The fact is that they've been putting up these numbers consistently, and they don't ask how, they ask how many.

You're basically saying that in spite of all prior trends, and in spite of the mountains of statistical data that would indicate that they are very good at turning defence into offence, based purely on your own personal assessment of individual offensive skills, they are going drop off this year and have down years, collectively.

 

[SaintMorose]

If he's a better version of Backlund, then he should easily be able to crush possession numbers, drag Brouwer's useless ass around the ice, and put up half a point per game in 3rd line minutes. Let's see him actually do even one of those things before we anoint him King of the Flames.

He looks very toolsy, but his results are bad across the board, and you simply cannot blame that entirely on Brouwer and "only" getting 2nd PP unit minutes. This kid spent the entirety of last season stickhandling himself into corners, and trying to dangle through the centre of the ice and losing the puck multiple times in a row. Until he figures out mentally how to effectively play in the NHL, he's not going to be any of the things you and OKG are talking about.

I'm much less inclined to believe the problem is Brouwer and PP time and much more that it's just going to take patience from our franchise. 2-way players aren't even close to a finished product before 24. He's going to get there, we've seen his style of play work before.

Brouwer I get on because of the money we pay him when the league is about your top players and filling in the rest with system guys (the Fleury interview after his training camp is good for this) and Brouwer is a system guy getting paid too much. Plus the number of times he kills a breakout or a play by holding the puck too long and/or putting it in a position where the Flames cant make a play on it. Last night was very encouraging he skated better and the puck came off his stick better than it did at any time last year. And I'm happy to see him do well can't root against your own players, but I'm sure as hell pissed when they could cost us a cap causality to do nothing.

I actually disagree. I think the key is splitting them apart. Go back to Brodie with Stone, and have Hamonic with Kulak/Andersson.

I think the most successful teams are the ones that know when to start playing your top D with the bottom pairing guys at times. In the last 10 minutes of a close game there's no reason to ever have Bart/Kulak and Stone on the ice together when we could do this even dbl shifting Gio and Hamilton back.

 

[Baxterman]

You're basically saying that in spite of all prior trends, and in spite of the mountains of statistical data that would indicate that they are very good at turning defence into offence, based purely on your own personal assessment of individual offensive skills, they are going drop off this year and have down years, collectively.

I am saying based on common sense of watching them play I don't expect Backlund or Frolik to be able to match their last season totals.

 

[Calgareee]

All I want is for Bennett to be a staple on the PP. he has so much offensive potential and he needs an opportunity.

Tkachuk
Versteeg JG
Monahan
Brodie

Tkachuk down low/net front
Versteeg and JG on the half walls
Monahan in the slot and Brodio playing up top

Jankowski/Brouwer/Ferland/Frolik
Backlund Bennett
Hamilton Gio

 

[Anglesmith]

I am saying based on common sense of watching them play I don't expect Backlund or Frolik to be able to match their last season totals.

Expecting them to suddenly become worse is neither common nor sensible.

 

[Baxterman]

Expecting them to suddenly become worse is neither common nor sensible.

I am not expecting them to be worse just more to what normal expectations should be.

I would expect about 35 points from Backlund and Frolik and if Tkachuk is saddled with them and limited PP time maybe 40 points for him. I do expect more from Tkachuk if he is given a better role/linemates.

 

[JPeeper]

35 points from a healthy Backlund and Frolik is normal expectations? Frolik's is a consistent 40+ point player and Back's has had 100 points combined over the last 2 years (47 + 53) and now he is dropping to 35?

k

I think Tkachuk is one of the reasons why Backlund's total went up last year and I think he is offensively better than both Frolik and Backlund, but that isn't to say Backlund or Frolik are some 3rd line scrubs. There's a reason why they were a top line in the NHL last year and it wasn't solely because of Tkachuk.

 

[Anglesmith]

I am not expecting them to be worse just more to what normal expectations should be.

I would expect about 35 points from Backlund and Frolik and if Tkachuk is saddled with them and limited PP time maybe 40 points for him. I do expect more from Tkachuk if he is given a better role/linemates.

But you are expecting them to be worse. Last year they were in exactly that situation and put up 53 and 44 points, respectively. They played like players who put up those totals. They didn't benefit from any kind of outlier luck where they were succeeding in spite of the way they play. They're the one line that consistently had good shift after good shift. Even on nights when we were being run out of the building, we were basically able to always rely on having offensive-zone chances thanks to that line. Relative to other guys in the league, they don't have the strongest pure offensive traits, that is true. Neither of them has a spectacular shot or amazing passing, nor can they power their way to the net. But these limitations are what keeps them at those point totals. Those point totals are basically the worst you can do if you play two-way hockey as well as these guys do as a unit.

So if those are your realistic expectations, then that means that your expectations have been wrong for years upon years now. So what does that tell you about how objective and realistic you're being? The way those guys played last year leads to at least the numbers they put up, if not more. So if you're expecting fewer points, you are expecting them to either get worse in some way, or get unpredictably unlucky for a long stretch of the season.

 

[Anglesmith]

35 points from a healthy Backlund and Frolik is normal expectations? Frolik's is a consistent 40+ point player and Back's has had 100 points combined over the last 2 years (47 + 53) and now he is dropping to 35?

k

I think Tkachuk is one of the reasons why Backlund's total went up last year and I think he is offensively better than both Frolik and Backlund, but that isn't to say Backlund or Frolik are some 3rd line scrubs. There's a reason why they were a top line in the NHL last year and it wasn't solely because of Tkachuk.

I think you can directly point to powerplay success as the reason his point totals went up. He actually had one fewer even strength point than the previous season. He just had more help on that second unit thanks to Matthew Tkachuk. Also, due to the strength of that line, he got a bit of a bump in ice time.

 

[Baxterman]

But you are expecting them to be worse. Last year they were in exactly that situation and put up 53 and 44 points, respectively. They played like players who put up those totals. They didn't benefit from any kind of outlier luck where they were succeeding in spite of the way they play. They're the one line that consistently had good shift after good shift. Even on nights when we were being run out of the building, we were basically able to always rely on having offensive-zone chances thanks to that line. Relative to other guys in the league, they don't have the strongest pure offensive traits, that is true. Neither of them has a spectacular shot or amazing passing, nor can they power their way to the net. But these limitations are what keeps them at those point totals. Those point totals are basically the worst you can do if you play two-way hockey as well as these guys do as a unit.

So if those are your realistic expectations, then that means that your expectations have been wrong for years upon years now. So what does that tell you about how objective and realistic you're being? The way those guys played last year leads to at least the numbers they put up, if not more. So if you're expecting fewer points, you are expecting them to either get worse in some way, or get unpredictably unlucky for a long stretch of the season.

Last year they were very lucky I alsready stated that and were not that impressive game after game. There were plenty of games where they were duds and I expect there will be a lot more this year based on their "skill." Last year was a fluke offensively for them and I expect this year will line up more with their lack of talent.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

The million dollar question for us is: Where will the scoring come from?

The 3M line kept our season alive for large stretches of the season but to expect them to put up the same numbers under the same deployment is asking for too much imo. We know Johnny and Sean should have good numbers but I think there needs to be some line juggling for us to maximize our offense, especially on the PP if anything. How neither Gio nor Hamilton are on the top unit is baffling.

3M had 33.87 expected goals and scored 35 goals. In other words, they scored a whopping one more goal than they should have as a unit. And considering xG is usually weighed down by depth players and Tkachuk is looking quicker and more dominant this year, we should very much expect another 35-ish goals from them this year - it's not asking too much because they are that good. If anything a better Tkachuk could have them be the legitimate best line in the league - whereas last year they trailed Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak.

The only real issue I have with scoring next year is whether Gulutzan can learn to ride the hot hand. Too often a guy like Gaudreau, Ferland (on line four), or Bennett, would be having a great game and he would continue to roll his lines. Sometimes you have to double shift a guy who's just flat out going, and get them out there in situations to score (and I'd add empty net situations to that). That's about reading the game, not player talent.

 

[Anglesmith]

Last year they were very lucky I alsready stated that and were not that impressive game after game. There were plenty of games where they were duds and I expect there will be a lot more this year based on their "skill." Last year was a fluke offensively for them and I expect this year will line up more with their lack of talent.

How does what you decide to 'state' carry any relevance in a discussion of Backlund? You could state that Backlund has one leg, and I wouldn't take your word for that, either. They were both subjectively and objectively impressive last season. You're on an island here.

And you can continue to pretend that everyone is wrong but you, but you've already basically admitted to being wrong for multiple seasons in a row prior to this one. So that seems unlikely.

 

[Baxterman]

How does what you decide to 'state' carry any relevance in a discussion of Backlund? You could state that Backlund has one leg, and I wouldn't take your word for that, either. They were both subjectively and objectively impressive last season. You're on an island here.

And you can continue to pretend that everyone is wrong but you, but you've already basically admitted to being wrong for multiple seasons in a row prior to this one. So that seems unlikely.

And you could say Backlund has 3 legs and I wouldn't take your word for it. Not sure what the point is here. It is all just our opinions when talking about next season.

And I haven't admitted or been wrong for multiple seasons at all.

 

[Anglesmith]

And you could say Backlund has 3 legs and I wouldn't take your word for it. Not sure what the point is here. It is all just our opinions when talking about next season.

And I haven't admitted or been wrong for multiple seasons at all.

My mistake. I assumed that if you were expecting 35-40 points this coming season for Backlund and Frolik after their best season last year, that you would have been expecting the same or less in the seasons prior. Or have you just reduced your expectations this time around?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I am not expecting them to be worse just more to what normal expectations should be.

I would expect about 35 points from Backlund and Frolik and if Tkachuk is saddled with them and limited PP time maybe 40 points for him. I do expect more from Tkachuk if he is given a better role/linemates.

A player being saddled by Backlund? That's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard . . .

[mod]

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I am not expecting them to be worse just more to what normal expectations should be.

I would expect about 35 points from Backlund and Frolik and if Tkachuk is saddled with them and limited PP time maybe 40 points for him. I do expect more from Tkachuk if he is given a better role/linemates.

You expect Frolik to drop 5-7 points below his norm for the past 4 seasons (almost identical PPG), and Backlund to drop below his PPG average for the past four seasons "because they were lucky last season?". And that the line was "unimpressive". Interesting, despite what literally almost every single scout, media outlet or organization was saying about them.

Mr. Contrarian out to play again.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Anglesmith is a philosophical terminator when it comes to arguments. He states his initial premise as fact, then uses deductive logic to form another premise, thus drawing his conclusion as irrefutable truth and does this more beautifully than any poster I’ve ever seen on HF. It’s very hard to get an edge on him because he has this mastered.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I would expect about 35 points from Backlund and Frolik and if Tkachuk is saddled with them and limited PP time maybe 40 points for him. I do expect more from Tkachuk if he is given a better role/linemates.

Hmm, now where have I heard this before.

 

[Baxterman]

My mistake. I assumed that if you were expecting 35-40 points this coming season for Backlund and Frolik after their best season last year, that you would have been expecting the same or less in the seasons prior. Or have you just reduced your expectations this time around?

A little but of both.

My expectations are lower than they were before but I am also not definitive in my expectations so I would say about 35-40 points is the range I would expect. A little higher than that say 42 isn't really that crazy and last year was a bigger year for Backlund than I would have expected.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Backlund also took harder competition last season than other seasonsin his career, along with more Dzone starts and better underlying numbers minus a measly 0.01 worse goals against relative to peers (Which is expected when you take significantly more Dzone starts and super hard competition).

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Backlund also took harder competition last season than other seasonsin his career, along with more Dzone starts and better underlying numbers minus a measly 0.01 worse goals against relative to peers (Which is expected when you take significantly more Dzone starts and super hard competition).

If we even slightly ease Backlund's deployment, he'd probably score even more points.

 

[Mr Snrub]

Backlund's season last year wasn't an anomaly. He just is legitimately getting better and better.