William Nylander Value/Contract

[The Iceman]

Kadri had an insanely unlucky season in his contract year that resulted in this contract, completely irrelevant to the Nylander discussion unless you're placing your bets on Nylander having insanely low luck in a 48 game season in his next contract year.

Giroux signed for a bridge deal and then put up a 93 point season the year after, how are you using him as a beneficial view of bridge contracts?

Again with Couture, you're just listing good players that did bridge deals instead of thinking whether they would've been better off with an 8 year deal. Can't comment on Tanev since I don't know when he broke out, but a 1 year deal for 1.5M before getting his 4.45M deal seems also irrelevant to Nylander as there's no way a potential Nylander bridge deal is anywhere close to that since he's a 60 point player vs a dman that's worth 1.5M.

Draisaitl is market value right now so it's not a bad deal, they're just not saving any money on the value they're getting out of it. And it was an overpayment on day 1 anyways, they should've gotten him for less but they had an idiot GM negotiating (same with McDavid's 12.5M that he wrote on a blank cheque). Eberle has consistently put up market value as well.

Ekblad would be a loved contract if it wasn't for the 2-4 concussions he got after, which makes him totally irrelevant in this discussion as well as you can't predict the player gets a couple concussions to seriously deteriorate his game.

Phaneuf wasn't even that bad of a deal I'd say. And Calgary was smart on betting 6.5M on having a guy who was in Norris talks in his rookie year.

Really poor choices to comment on to use as evidence of your argument IMO.

You are providing excuses and reasons why the Ekblad/Phaneuf contracts are bad instead of understanding that reasons happen and that is why it is a big risk. LD contract for Edmonton at this point is horrible for Edmonton too. McDavid might pad his numbers over the years but he is not worth the $$$ he is getting.

 

[Gary Nylund]

During the season or in GDT threads:

'THESE KIDS ARE AMAZING!'

When contract talk rolls around:

'Low ball em'

That's just life in the big city.

 

[Boutette]

During the season or in GDT threads:

'THESE KIDS ARE AMAZING!'

When contract talk rolls around:

'Low ball em'

The Spirit of Harold Ballard live on. No wonder Keon still keeps this team at arms length.

 

[Sypher04]

more the AAV Kev

Okay, that's fine but I also think that's overly optimistic. If we want term (7 or 8 years) we will almost certainly be north of 6 million imo

 

[Nithoniniel]

Okay, that's fine but I also think that's overly optimistic. If we want term (7 or 8 years) we will almost certainly be north of 6 million imo

If we go max term, I expect the AAV to be closer to $7M.

 

[Sypher04]

If we go max term, I expect the AAV to be closer to $7M.

Yup. I agree. At least mid 6s.

I mean I think we maybe can argue he's still below Pastrnak right now as a comparable. Even with the cap increase.

 

[therealkoho]

Okay, that's fine but I also think that's overly optimistic. If we want term (7 or 8 years) we will almost certainly be north of 6 million imo

yeah i'm more on the 3 year bridge train

 

[Mess]

Nylander's contract will be one of the 1st big tests for greenhorn GM Kyle Dubas.

All eyes will be on this to see how it turns out.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Nylander's contract will be one of the 1st big tests for greenhorn GM Kyle Dubas.

All eyes will be on this to see how it turns out.

no it's not.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nylander's contract will be one of the 1st big tests for greenhorn GM Kyle Dubas.

All eyes will be on this to see how it turns out.

I don't think "test" is the right word. All eyes will be on this though that's true. Of course that's true for anything that happens in Leafland so nothing new in that sense.

 

[leafsrule123]

I could see a bridge deal like what happened to Kucherov, pay him 4.5-5 mill for 2-3 years. Saves money until Marleau’s contract comes off the books

 

[Boutette]

I could see a bridge deal like what happened to Kucherov, pay him 4.5-5 mill for 2-3 years. Saves money until Marleau’s contract comes off the books

No need. Marleau's contract is likely coming off the books next summer.

 

[DarkKnight]

I kind of agree with seeing the Nylander contract as a "test". I see this contact negotiation, and the ability to shore up our D, as the two most interesting storylines to watch with Dubas. I mean, I really could care less how well he deals with people, whether he knows Jen in the mailroom by name or if everyone is enamoured with his verbal acumen. I'm simply looking at substance, and how he handles Nylander is a huge indicator of his "chops" because it's a tricky consideration, in my opinion harder than the Matthews and Marner calls. I also think it important Dubas looks firm, because I sense the media will turn on him pretty quick should there be any hiccups with this team. As for what to do, seems pretty compelling reasons for both a long term and bridge deal, glad it's not my call, lol!

 

[Boutette]

I could see a bridge deal like what happened to Kucherov, pay him 4.5-5 mill for 2-3 years. Saves money until Marleau’s contract comes off the books

And could end up being pretty brutal right after that should he get just a little better and become a PPG center. 6x6 or thereabouts is probably the best compromise between min and max risk.

 

[Laista]

When You Finally got 4-5 players that could be Good Core for att least 6years why do some of You gamble on Bridge deals? I have suffered with You from after the Sundin era and now when the tabletter is set You think its a Good start and lowball some of that Core?

 

[Mess]

I suspect William Nylander's agent is drooling now that he gets to deal with rookie Kyle Dubas instead of sly vet Lou Lam.

He is seeing $$ signs for his client and thinking what looked like the Ehlers contract could now exceed the Pastrnak deal for Willie.

Dubas will be tested to see if they can get the upper hand in negotiations.

 

[ULF_55]

Who usually gets more, wingers or centers?

2 60 point seasons
This year 2nd. on the team in even strength scoring.
Wasn't on the top PP unit so no padding of stats there.

If you were his agent would you want the triple now, or bridge it and hope the next time you negotiate go for the homerun as a full time center?
If he's moved to center, I'd speculate it would be a scoring line, not a shutdown line.
If he's with 2 offensive players I could easily see him put up the same points.
If he's on a good PP unit, 70+ points aren't out of the question.

I think it is an Ehlers type of deal is most likely.
Interestingly, Nylander had more even strength points this year than Pastrnak did when he got his contract. Take into account Pastrnak missed 7 games.
This year Pastrnak had 54 ESP, Nylander had 49 ESP.

The contract is in there ...

 

[nuck]

I suspect William Nylander's agent is drooling now that he gets to deal with rookie Kyle Dubas instead of sly vet Lou Lam.

He is seeing $$ signs for his client and thinking what looked like the Ehlers contract could now exceed the Pastrnak deal for Willie.

Dubas will be tested to see if they can get the upper hand in negotiations.

The comps are still the comps. He isn't Drai or Pasta. Over 6 and under 7, even if he goes 8 years. Things could change somewhat if another deal happens that resets the market but IMO Dubas has it fairly easy. Now if it was last summer after Draisaitl got his payday but before Ehlers and Pastrnak did, he would have his hands full.

 

[Mess]

Who usually gets more, wingers or centers?

2 60 point seasons
This year 2nd. on the team in even strength scoring.
Wasn't on the top PP unit so no padding of stats there.

If you were his agent would you want the triple now, or bridge it and hope the next time you negotiate go for the homerun as a full time center?
If he's moved to center, I'd speculate it would be a scoring line, not a shutdown line.
If he's with 2 offensive players I could easily see him put up the same points.
If he's on a good PP unit, 70+ points aren't out of the question.

I think it is an Ehlers type of deal is most likely.
Interestingly, Nylander had more even strength points this year than Pastrnak did when he got his contract. Take into account Pastrnak missed 7 games.
This year Pastrnak had 54 ESP, Nylander had 49 ESP.

The contract is in there ...

The biggest question for me is as you pointed out it must first be determined if Nylander is going to be a #1RW playing alongside your franchise player Matthews or as your #3C replacing the departing Bozak going forward.

- If its option #1 a #1RW then Ehlers < Nylander < Pastrnak type deal is more inline with his 60+ point output.
- If its option #2a #3C likely playing between Johnsson -- Nylander -- Kapanen etc and 2nd PP unit then < 60 points is the expectation and paying him as a 3rd line C has to fit with the team salary structure.
- If its option #2b (with a twist) and Nylander is going to be used in a scoring role as a #2C (minutes and opportunity) and given Marner as his permanent RW then together the duo would rack up > 60 points each on a Marleau -- Nylander -- Marner line. This would them make Kadri the #3C checking line centre (@$4.5 mil) paired with players like Brown etc and then Willy $$ > #3C Kadri but < #1C Matthews.

So its almost as important to define Nylander's role first and then determine his remuneration that would fit that salary structure for the team afterwards !!!

 

[ULF_55]

The biggest question for me is as you pointed out it must first be determined if Nylander is going to be a #1RW playing alongside your franchise player Matthews or as your #3C replacing the departing Bozak going forward.

- If its option #1 a #1RW then Ehlers < Nylander < Pastrnak type deal is more inline with his 60+ point output.
- If its option #2a #3C likely playing between Johnsson -- Nylander -- Kapanen etc and 2nd PP unit then < 60 points is the expectation and paying him as a 3rd line C has to fit with the team salary structure.
- If its option #2b (with a twist) and Nylander is going to be used in a scoring role as a #2C (minutes and opportunity) and given Marner as his permanent RW then together the duo would rack up > 60 points each on a Marleau -- Nylander -- Marner line. This would them make Kadri the #3C checking line centre (@$4.5 mil) paired with players like Brown etc and then Willy $$ > #3C Kadri but < #1C Matthews.

So its almost as important to define Nylander's role first and then determine his remuneration that would fit that salary structure for the team afterwards !!!

Kadri's contract is excellent for a hybrid shutdown-scoring line center. It isn't out of whack for a 3rd. line center, and he contributes above that, but we're talking salary structure here.

 

[Mess]

The comps are still the comps. He isn't Drai or Pasta. Over 6 and under 7, even if he goes 8 years. Things could change somewhat if another deal happens that resets the market but IMO Dubas has it fairly easy. Now if it was last summer after Draisaitl got his payday but before Ehlers and Pastrnak did, he would have his hands full.

I hear what you're saying but I see it a little differently but through Willy's eyes.

Nylander last summer when he could have signed his new extension deal when Ehlers did, (with similar stats) and gotten then gotten a similar $6 mil per type deal as a player comparable. Perhaps Lou Lam was too smart to give Nylander that option and reward him after only 1 season and knowing Matthews impacted those point totals greatly, so he told Willy to prove it first before the new long-term deal was an option.

But I think Nylander was betting on himself thinking another season playing #1RW beside Matthews another season could have seen his point totals go from 61 points >> 75 points potentially and then he would be trying to use the Draisatl contract ($8.5 mil per).

Now after back to back 61 point season and underperforming Pastrnak last year totals and this year regular season and playoffs stats then << Pastrnak ($6.67 mil) seems his negotiating ceiling as max ask.

Now Dubas is taking over in a good position holding the upper hand because Nylander's point totals plateaued (61 points + 61 points) and didn't peak (61 points + ~75+ etc), forcing Nylander to be pigeon holed closer to Ehlers than Pastrnak in contract comparable with Draisaitl hopes completely dashed.

Will Nylander now take a bridge deal 2-3 years at < $$ to attempt once again to hit big and then get the Draisaitl deal in the future when his stats warrant it or will Dubas attempt to lock him in long-term using Ehlers contract as the guide comaparable? Hopefully an inexperienced GM Dubas doesn't give Nylander +$7 mil and more than Pastrnak on a term deal, without the stats to earn it .

 

[Mess]

Kadri's contract is excellent for a hybrid shutdown-scoring line center. It isn't out of whack for a 3rd. line center, and he contributes above that, but we're talking salary structure here.

#1C - Matthews..... @ +$10 mil per
#2C - Nylander...... @ ~ $6 mil per
#3C - Kadri ..............@ $4.5 mil per

That would be a good team cap structure.

 

[Schooner]

I hear what you're saying but I see it a little differently but through Willy's eyes.

Nylander last summer when he could have signed his new extension deal when Ehlers did, (with similar stats) and gotten then gotten a similar $6 mil per type deal as a player comparable. Perhaps Lou Lam was too smart to give Nylander that option and reward him after only 1 season and knowing Matthews impacted those point totals greatly, so he told Willy to prove it first before the new long-term deal was an option.

But I think Nylander was betting on himself thinking another season playing #1RW beside Matthews another season could have seen his point totals go from 61 points >> 75 points potentially and then he would be trying to use the Draisatl contract ($8.5 mil per).

Now after back to back 61 point season and underperforming Pastrnak last year totals and this year regular season and playoffs stats then << Pastrnak ($6.67 mil) seems his negotiating ceiling as max ask.

Now Dubas is taking over in a good position holding the upper hand because Nylander's point totals plateaued (61 points + 61 points) and didn't peak (61 points + ~75+ etc), forcing Nylander to be pigeon holed closer to Ehlers than Pastrnak in contract comparable with Draisaitl hopes completely dashed.

Will Nylander now take a bridge deal 2-3 years at < $$ to attempt once again to hit big and then get the Draisaitl deal in the future when his stats warrant it or will Dubas attempt to lock him in long-term using Ehlers contract as the guide comaparable? Hopefully an inexperienced GM Dubas doesn't give Nylander +$7 mil and more than Pastrnak on a term deal, without the stats to earn it .

I find it funny how little credit you give Dubas in contract negotiations. You do realize he used to be an agent and a GM in the OHL right? The practice is still the same.

 

[Sypher04]

I find it funny how little credit you give Dubas in contract negotiations. You do realize he used to be an agent and a GM in the OHL right? The practice is still the same.

Not to mention he probably did some contract negotiations over the last couple years while he's been Assistant GM

 

[Schooner]

Not to mention he probably did some contract negotiations over the last couple years while he's been Assistant GM

Exactly, and he may have done some negotiating with Hunter while interm too