William Nylander Value/Contract

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Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Interestingly enough, at Nylander's age, Kucherov was a 60 point winger. Its not outlandish to say Nylander could reach his level.

The risk of a bridge deal backfiring is most certainly there.

Yeah, I think it'd be incredibly short-sighted and unwise to sign any of the the big 3 to bridge deals.
 
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Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
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Yeah, I think it'd be incredibly short-sighted and unwise to sign any of the the big 3 to bridge deals.

I think some people like to imagine, or at least tell themselves, that the three have underwhelmed in some sense, and should be bridged and\or not be given significant term. When in reality, their ceilings are immense, and the organization should be seeking to lock in value now when they still can.
 

Menzinger

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I think based on the rising cap, it'd be entirely reasonable to see Nylander end up with the Ehlers contract, but just slightly bumped on the AAV. Something like 7 years, 6.5 mil per.

I can even see the Leafs going up to 6.75 based on the rising cap too as a result of Seattle expansion.
 

Boutette

Been there done that
Sep 28, 2017
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With Evander Kane netting a 7M X 7 year contract, I think it's going to inflate Nylander's next contract.

How? Its a UFA contract, not a RFA contract that doesn't even have the choice of arbitration. Its not like we haven't seen lots of similar UFA contracts before.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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He's gonna get a fair amount more in money, and double that or more in term.

I don't know about double or more in term, I could see a 5 years deal being the best he can do. Three years seems highly unlikely though. As far as the dollars, on a 5+ year deal I agree he probably gets more, I don't know about a fair amount more though, he might come in under 6m, we'll see.
 

Sypher04

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I don't know about double or more in term, I could see a 5 years deal being the best he can do. Three years seems highly unlikely though. As far as the dollars, on a 5+ year deal I agree he probably gets more, I don't know about a fair amount more though, he might come in under 6m, we'll see.

Hard to say really.

I don't see any reason to think he gets less AAV than Evander Kane did. He's a consistently more productive player and goalscorer.

Maybe the term could be slightly shortened due to him being a few years older though.
 

Gary Nylund

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Hard to say really.

I don't see any reason to think he gets less AAV than Evander Kane did. He's a consistently more productive player and goalscorer.

Maybe the term could be slightly shortened due to him being a few years older though.

I don't know much about Kane and I'm not really sure but I can't imagine he has the same rep as JVR - one dimensional and weak defensively. I'd think he gets less than Kane myself but you could be right, if it's a 5 year deal I guess someone might get him 7.

I'll be curious to see what his deal comes in at that's for sure. As long as it's not us signing him I'll be happy, really want the JVR era to be over.

Edit - just had a quick peek at Kane's numbers, yikes, I had no idea they were that poor. Maybe you're right, if Kane's worth 7m, why not JVR. Just gross, the more info I get and the more I think about it it just seems so wrong to sign guys like this to these kind of contracts.
 
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Sypher04

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I guess the one thing I'll say in mild defense of Kane would be that he's typically played on bad to awful teams. That said, he doesn't have the resume imo to demand what he got from San Jose. I think right now it's a bad contract that MIGHT work out. Until of course Kane decides to become a headache again
 

PromisedLand

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Just wondering in terms of “foreign” players playing in the leafs what’s the tax on moact on them?

For ex: Kadri, Mitch, Rielly are all Canadians so they probably get taxed according Canadian tax laws but what about foreign nationals like Nylander, Gardiner, Matthews etc...

Is their income tax reduced because they are not Canadians? This might play into contract negotiations as well

Only info I could find was
Non-residents of Canada - Canada.ca

But it doesn’t tell us if foreign nationals pay the same tax rate as Canadians.

Any accountants in the house who can shed some light on this?
 

The Hanging Jowl

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Apr 2, 2017
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I don't know much about Kane and I'm not really sure but I can't imagine he has the same rep as JVR - one dimensional and weak defensively. I'd think he gets less than Kane myself but you could be right, if it's a 5 year deal I guess someone might get him 7.

I'll be curious to see what his deal comes in at that's for sure. As long as it's not us signing him I'll be happy, really want the JVR era to be over.

Edit - just had a quick peek at Kane's numbers, yikes, I had no idea they were that poor. Maybe you're right, if Kane's worth 7m, why not JVR. Just gross, the more info I get and the more I think about it it just seems so wrong to sign guys like this to these kind of contracts.

One dimensional? ONE DIMENSIONAL???

Jebus man, he can tip shots *and* flip the puck up high through his legs when tight to the net!

I can't believe you defamed him like that.
 

MyBudJT

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Mar 5, 2018
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If we bridge Nylander we're stupid

There are plenty of cases where bridge deals worked well for the NHL club.

Kadri is a recent example for us... Giroux, Tanev, Couture, etc are all good examples of bridges that works...

Not only that, for every Subban or Kucherov there are two or three Draisatls, Eberles, Ekblads, Phaneufs, etc.

I'd argue, if we sign Nylander higher to a 6.5 mil cap hit, "we're stupid".


I think we should aim for a 4-6 year contract with Marner and Nylander, kinda like Kane and Toews.
 

Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Sure but a 4-6 year contract is in not really a bridge contract. Bridge contracts are more like 2 or 3 years.

Also, based on production Nylander can already demand probably 5.5 minimum. If you wanna take that short term over an extra mil to lock him down for 7/8 years you're gonna regret that most likely.
 

MR4

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Oct 20, 2014
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There are plenty of cases where bridge deals worked well for the NHL club.

Kadri is a recent example for us... Giroux, Tanev, Couture, etc are all good examples of bridges that works...

Not only that, for every Subban or Kucherov there are two or three Draisatls, Eberles, Ekblads, Phaneufs, etc.

I'd argue, if we sign Nylander higher to a 6.5 mil cap hit, "we're stupid".


I think we should aim for a 4-6 year contract with Marner and Nylander, kinda like Kane and Toews.
Kadri had an insanely unlucky season in his contract year that resulted in this contract, completely irrelevant to the Nylander discussion unless you're placing your bets on Nylander having insanely low luck in a 48 game season in his next contract year.

Giroux signed for a bridge deal and then put up a 93 point season the year after, how are you using him as a beneficial view of bridge contracts?

Again with Couture, you're just listing good players that did bridge deals instead of thinking whether they would've been better off with an 8 year deal. Can't comment on Tanev since I don't know when he broke out, but a 1 year deal for 1.5M before getting his 4.45M deal seems also irrelevant to Nylander as there's no way a potential Nylander bridge deal is anywhere close to that since he's a 60 point player vs a dman that's worth 1.5M.

Draisaitl is market value right now so it's not a bad deal, they're just not saving any money on the value they're getting out of it. And it was an overpayment on day 1 anyways, they should've gotten him for less but they had an idiot GM negotiating (same with McDavid's 12.5M that he wrote on a blank cheque). Eberle has consistently put up market value as well.

Ekblad would be a loved contract if it wasn't for the 2-4 concussions he got after, which makes him totally irrelevant in this discussion as well as you can't predict the player gets a couple concussions to seriously deteriorate his game.

Phaneuf wasn't even that bad of a deal I'd say. And Calgary was smart on betting 6.5M on having a guy who was in Norris talks in his rookie year.

Really poor choices to comment on to use as evidence of your argument IMO.
 

MR4

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Oct 20, 2014
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Sure but a 4-6 year contract is in not really a bridge contract. Bridge contracts are more like 2 or 3 years.

Also, based on production Nylander can already demand probably 5.5 minimum. If you wanna take that short term over an extra mil to lock him down for 7/8 years you're gonna regret that most likely.
Hell just look at the Kane contract. If UFAs cost 7M for 50 points, we should be eating up the chance to get Nylander for anything less when he's put up 60 points in his 1st 2 years.

Barring a random drop in play from Nylander, even 60 points on his last year of a 7-8 year, 6-7M contract will be looked at as favourable with the cap going up.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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The only reason to give a bridge contract is if you’re not sure about a players higher end potential.

And quite frankly betting on Nylander’s offence taking off is probably one of the safest things a team can do. If the 2nd pp unit hadn’t been so dysfunctional he (and Matthews for that matter) could have easily had 8.-10 more points alone this season.
 

meefer

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Jun 9, 2015
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I know agents are there to counter the emotional pitch that teams make to convince players to accept below market deals. However, if the Leafs try to 'entice' Nylander with a long term deal at below market value, I can see him accepting something like 6x6(.15?) if he buys into the idea of 'helping the team's cap structure. If he and his agent play hardball, I'd guess the number to inflate towards 6.75 over a 5/6 year term.
I don't think the Leafs are going to try and lowball Nylander, or Marner and Matthews, but they may try to convince them that a small discount on what their highest potential number may be is a benefit to the team in it's ability to forage that special complimentary player that would help them move forward. If MNM were each to accept .3-.5 less/year than their potential maximum because they wish to see the Leafs contend, coupled with the advantageous contracts of Rielly and Kadri, the Leafs would then have 'arguably' close to 2 million/year to play with in the hope of getting that special player who rounds out a roster because of skill and intangibles, but is not a member of the core.
 

SniperOnTheWing

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Apr 28, 2017
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I think some people like to imagine, or at least tell themselves, that the three have underwhelmed in some sense, and should be bridged and\or not be given significant term. When in reality, their ceilings are immense, and the organization should be seeking to lock in value now when they still can.

During the season or in GDT threads:

'THESE KIDS ARE AMAZING!'

When contract talk rolls around:

'Low ball em'
 
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