William Nylander Value/Contract

[thewave]

Not really, if the Leafs can get him under $5M on a 3-year deal (similar to Kuch's contract), that gives them some extra wiggle room to play with in other areas of the roster. Even if they bridged all 3 of 34/29/16, the net difference between what they might get them signed at now vs. in 3 years might be worth it if it means bringing in an extra star level player during that time, and winning 2-3 Cups.

If, after all 3 are done their bridge deals, you have to move one of 16/29 (might not even have to) to fit their bigger contracts in, then you do it and keep the youth cycle flowing.

For example:

Signing Long term deals:

Matthews = 12 * 8
Marner = 7.5 * 8
Nylander = 6.5 * 8

That's $26M between the 3 of them, which is fairly reasonable and I'd be ok with.

Signing bridge deals:

Matthews = 7.5 * 3 -> 15 * 8
Marner = 5.5 * 3 -> 10 * 8
Nylander = 4.75 * 3 -> 9 * 8

That gives us 3 years where the 3 of them combine for less than $18M (might even get them to sign for less on bridge deals), enough to realistically fit another big contract. With those 3rd contracts, they combine to $34M, which is a lot, but under a cap that's around $90M+, still doable to keep all 3. If you end up moving one of 16/29, you're replenishing the youth and picking up at least one ELC that would be able to contribute at that point.

Basically, I don't think there's a wrong choice between bridging and signing long-term (as long as you don't overpay on the cap hit, obviously).

12m x 8 is a huge overpay from anything we have seen out of him. The only accurate value I see is Marner.

 

[DarkKnight]

Agreed, I can see Marner having more success in the middle than Nylander.

I wonder if there is any internal discussion about Marner at center long term. He was excellent on the draw this year. I saw real progress defensively, he was great at back checking and positionally. The only downside was strength, and this was less and less of a factor as the season moved forward (just look at how much less he was on his ass late last season, playoffs). I truly believe Marner could be a center in this league with a bit more strength, he's defensively responsible, has the smarts and he drives a line like a center regardless. Anyways, a bit off topic here.

 

[Notsince67]

I feel like it's either going to be an Ehlers contract, or a Kucherov contract for Willy. As much as it would suck trying to fit him in after a bridge, I'd be ok with it and then figuring out what to do after that, since it would give us some extra space for the next 3 years. He'd still have 2 years of RFA status afterwards, as well, so we'd still have all our options available when the bridge comes up.

If Willy insists on a bridge, I suspect he will be on the block

 

[DarkKnight]

If Willy insists on a bridge, I suspect he will be on the block

Not a chance.

 

[Fatass]

12m x 8 is a huge overpay from anything we have seen out of him. The only accurate value I see is Marner.

What's Ehlers paid, 6 times 6? Maybe that's a fair deal for Nylander too?

 

[hamzarocks]

12m x 8 is a huge overpay from anything we have seen out of him. The only accurate value I see is Marner.

Even marner should not be paid that much. The guy has been a diehard leaf fan for his life according to himself and fans. He is the guy that you expect to give you a pay cut. I think we get following deals
Nylander 6.25x8
Marner 6.5x8
Matthew's 10.25x8

 

[hamzarocks]

Delete

 

[Notsince67]

Even marner should not be paid that much. The guy has been a diehard leaf fan for his life according to himself and fans. He is the guy that you expect to give you a pay cut. I think we get following deals
Nylander 6.25x8
Marner 6.5x8
Matthew's 10.25x8

You think Marner would give up 1MM per year?

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

During the season everybody praises the big three non stop, but when the season is over and contract talks start coming up all of a sudden everybody wants to nickel and dime them, pick apart every little part of their game to make them look less valuable for a smaller contract, or expect them to take pay cuts... lol

We have three elite young players only scratching the surface of their potential, they are going to be paid like elite players so we may as well brace ourselves for it and get over it. Matthews is probably getting more than Eichel, Marner is NOT taking any kind of silly hometown discount right when his career is about to take off just because he's from the area, and Nylander is a back to back 60pt player with more than enough talent to reach or eclipse 75pts on the regular.

The Matthews conversation starts at $11M in my opinion, Marner with at least $7.5M (even more - $8M+ - if he smartly holds out until next summer to sign after possibly dropping 80pts next season) and Nylander $6.5M (which will be a steal in a year or two only because he has to sign now and can't wait until another more productive season to boost his leverage like Marner can).

 

[diceman934]

How many times did Nylander run his car over your dog? Sounds like he does it every morning. Teams pay 60 point players what they pay 60 point players. It doesn't matter what 'line' he is playing on, 60 pts are 60 pts. Bozak picked up 40+ points a year and he was paid $4.5 mil. Was he a physical grinder like you think, because he wasn't getting paid $2.5mil to play on the 3rd line either. Nylander's a consistent 60 pt player as a 20 year old, making him a top producers in the league as a 20 year old, despite how 'soft' you consider him to be. And he will be paid for that capability, not for how many 'hits' he has or how often he goes into the corner to dig out pucks. If he's a point a game player after 2 years at center, it won't matter what line he's on, points are points. He'll be eligible for arbitration and be looking at $8-$10 million instead of $6mil. Is that how much you want the leafs to be paying him in 2 years? Most people would prefer that kind of payout to be at least 6 years down the road.

Really you have been calling him a 70 pts center when he had never shown he can produce points away from Mathews wing. He has always shown him self to be fearful.

Why anyone would want to pay him a lot of money right now if the plan is to play him in the middle is beyond me. All that he has proven is that he can play with a very gifted center and away from him he has struggled to put up points at anywhere near the same pace.

Next season Marner will be playing with Mathews if he signs a contract this summer and Nylander will be either a winger with Kadri or a center on the 3rd line, either way I see limited risk in offering him a bridge deal and see if we can pay him the money being discussed on here. I say away from Mathews he will be a 50 point player possibly and still with a flaw in his game and if he does not show he can play for keeps them we have to move away from him and get players who will.

No one need to look any father then Vegas for all the proof you need as to the type of players and team we need to build around if we are to win the cup. Me type players are not needed or required.

 

[meefer]

Matthews has not shown anything to warrant a 12/year contract.
Marner may get 7.
Nylander, as he's the more likely to transition to C, might command, based on current play, 6/6.25/ yr, but if he bridges, I can't see more than 3x5/yr. If he blossoms into a 75 point/yr C I could then see him get a 7x7.5-8/yr deal depending on variables.

 

[Superstar]

You think Marner would give up 1MM per year?

If he values the security of a long term contract, then why not? $50 plus million USD is not chump change. He could still make his mega bucks as a UFA if he earns it. These days, it's quite the privilege to get an 8 year deal after only 2 years of NHL experience.

 

[Superstar]

Matthews has not shown anything to warrant a 12/year contract.
Marner may get 7.
Nylander, as he's the more likely to transition to C, might command, based on current play, 6/6.25/ yr, but if he bridges, I can't see more than 3x5/yr. If he blossoms into a 75 point/yr C I could then see him get a 7x7.5-8/yr deal depending on variables.

Yeah, we shouldn't be in any rush to overpay Willy...he should be right around what Ehlers makes...we all saw how ineffective Ehlers was playing for Winnipeg in these playoffs even with decent regular season numbers...until Willy plays like he wants to win at all cost and has the production to accompany that desire, he's replaceable...there's a reason why Babcock wants real men on this team...and I don't even doubt that Kapanen could be more effective if he plays on Matthews' wing.

 

[Menzinger]

Really you have been calling him a 70 pts center when he had never shown he can produce points away from Mathews wing. He has always shown him self to be fearful.

Why anyone would want to pay him a lot of money right now if the plan is to play him in the middle is beyond me. All that he has proven is that he can play with a very gifted center and away from him he has struggled to put up points at anywhere near the same pace.

Next season Marner will be playing with Mathews if he signs a contract this summer and Nylander will be either a winger with Kadri or a center on the 3rd line, either way I see limited risk in offering him a bridge deal and see if we can pay him the money being discussed on here. I say away from Mathews he will be a 50 point player possibly and still with a flaw in his game and if he does not show he can play for keeps them we have to move away from him and get players who will.

No one need to look any father then Vegas for all the proof you need as to the type of players and team we need to build around if we are to win the cup. Me type players are not needed or required.

You realize he scored at a near 50 point pace over a 20ish game sample size when he played centre during his first call up? Playing alongside scrub linemates, On a terrible Leafs team, Matthews not even drafted.

Your assessment hat hes just a 50 point player now As a centre away from matthews doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

 

[meefer]

Yeah, we shouldn't be in any rush to overpay Willy...he should be right around what Ehlers makes...we all saw how ineffective Ehlers was playing for Winnipeg in these playoffs even with decent regular season numbers...until Willy plays like he wants to win at all cost and has the production to accompany that desire, he's replaceable...there's a reason why Babcock wants real men on this team...and I don't even doubt that Kapanen could be more effective if he plays on Matthews' wing.

We shouldn't be in a rush to overpay anyone. I think Nylander has fabulous talent, and will become a C who can help a 3rd line dominate (assuming Kadri's line is considered the 2nd unit). However, until he proves that potential, he is what he is - Ehlers being a good comparison.

 

[diceman934]

You realize he scored at a near 50 point pace over a 20ish game sample size when he played centre during his first call up? Playing alongside scrub linemates, On a terrible Leafs team, Matthews not even drafted.

Your assessment hat hes just a 50 point player now As a centre away from matthews doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

How about these past two years away from Mathews. He has not produced and his first year Kadri got all the tough match up and no teams were even concerning them selfs with Nylander who got highly sheltered minutes.

I simply am making a valid point and that is we can not pay him as a 60 point player if he is going to play a different position as he need to establish value as a center before we can assess his ability and impact on the teams success away from Mathews.

Any contract around 7m per year is a vast over payment for a player who wants to play another position and I say a short term deal holds very little risk as Nylander will be playing away from Mathews and should see a drop in production or at best come close to matching his production.

 

[WTFMAN99]

What's Ehlers paid, 6 times 6? Maybe that's a fair deal for Nylander too?

7 years, 6m per for Ehlers. Seems like it's the right fit for Nylander too.

Imo makes zero sense to go short term with Nylander to pay even more later.

 

[Nithoniniel]

The idea that what we saw against Boston is an ongoing problem is absurd, and easily proven false. Willy in that series was intimidated cutting through the neutral zone. As a result, he had abysmal transition numbers. In contrast, they are normally near-elite. Willy in that series got absolutely owned along the boards, and had barely any contested pucks won in the series. In the rest of the measured games in his career, he's got surprisingly good stats in this regard. Willy shied away from the front of the net against Boston. The rest of his career his shot charts clearly show that he goes frequently to the slot, something that also shows up in other metrics. His Boston series was night and day compared to absolutely everything he has ever shown before, in any kind of shape or form.

Of course, I've brought all this up several times before and had it summarily ignored by those that would actually prefer to push a negative narrative against an incredible talent on their favorite team, which I find quite sad.

Oh, and as for Nylander not having proven anything away from Matthews. It's interesting that this argument never comes up from these same posters regarding Matthews, considering that his performances away from Nylander has been worse. Similar production but worse underlying metrics. When Nylander played center in a secondary matchup role with Hyman and Brown and didn't have great production, it's brought up as a reason why he's not a center, despite great underlying metrics. Despite Babcock praising him, and starting to talk about him as a future center again. When Matthews played between Hyman and Brown in the same role with the same kind of production but with bad underlying metrics, not a word is said by the same people. Makes it kind of clear that something else than the actual performance defines their opinion.

However, until he proves that potential, he is what he is - Ehlers being a good comparison.

That doesn't really work in contract negotiations though. Unless we go for a two year bridge, paying for potential will always be a part of it.

Either way, an Ehlers contract would likely put him at $6.5-7M6Y due to the increasing cap. The numbers some people propose would put him lower than any reasonable comparable in the whole league.

 

[ZEBROA]

Feels like a fanbase filled with haters. Or should a call them scapegoatzombies. Marner aint better than Nylander they got different skills. And streaks. The advanced data shows this realy clear. The zombies opinions will turn with the current player who is in a pointstreak. Thats how a scapegoatzombie works, they just turn to another scapegoat if the first scapegoat escapes.

Around 6mils+ iguess

Nylander will play better at C but he needs Johansson and hard working sniper . But no puckhog , thats Nylanders role.

 

[meefer]

The idea that what we saw against Boston is an ongoing problem is absurd, and easily proven false. Willy in that series was intimidated cutting through the neutral zone. As a result, he had abysmal transition numbers. In contrast, they are normally near-elite. Willy in that series got absolutely owned along the boards, and had barely any contested pucks won in the series. In the rest of the measured games in his career, he's got surprisingly good stats in this regard. Willy shied away from the front of the net against Boston. The rest of his career his shot charts clearly show that he goes frequently to the slot, something that also shows up in other metrics. His Boston series was night and day compared to absolutely everything he has ever shown before, in any kind of shape or form.

Of course, I've brought all this up several times before and had it summarily ignored by those that would actually prefer to push a negative narrative against an incredible talent on their favorite team, which I find quite sad.

Oh, and as for Nylander not having proven anything away from Matthews. It's interesting that this argument never comes up from these same posters regarding Matthews, considering that his performances away from Nylander has been worse. Similar production but worse underlying metrics. When Nylander played center in a secondary matchup role with Hyman and Brown and didn't have great production, it's brought up as a reason why he's not a center, despite great underlying metrics. Despite Babcock praising him, and starting to talk about him as a future center again. When Matthews played between Hyman and Brown in the same role with the same kind of production but with bad underlying metrics, not a word is said by the same people. Makes it kind of clear that something else than the actual performance defines their opinion.


That doesn't really work in contract negotiations though. Unless we go for a two year bridge, paying for potential will always be a part of it.

Either way, an Ehlers contract would likely put him at $6.5-7M6Y due to the increasing cap. The numbers some people propose would put him lower than any reasonable comparable in the whole league.

I did not take into account the increasing cap. How that affects my numbers will depend on the new cap total.

 

[Boutette]

Either way, an Ehlers contract would likely put him at $6.5-7M6Y due to the increasing cap. The numbers some people propose would put him lower than any reasonable comparable in the whole league.

Nylander and Ehlers will be starting their next contract at the same month. No reason for Nylander to be paid any more, IMHO. And even if there was any validity to that, the cap is going up less than 7%. 7mil over 6 is double that increase. If the leafs are handing out their most expensive RFA contracts at double the rate of CAP inflation, this train is going to derail very quickly. At best, if you are comparing him to Ehlers, who scores a lot more goals than Nylander, and pretend that Nylander deserves more because of cap inflation the most he should get is $6.5 mil a year.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nylander and Ehlers will be starting their next contract at the same month. No reason for Nylander to be paid any more, IMHO.

I'm pretty sure that historically the signing date has been more of a defining factor than the start date. Can't swear on it though. And you're right that 6.5 sounds more reasonable, the upper number there was in case we added a year or two, something I forgot to mention.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The idea that what we saw against Boston is an ongoing problem is absurd, and easily proven false. Willy in that series was intimidated cutting through the neutral zone. As a result, he had abysmal transition numbers. In contrast, they are normally near-elite. Willy in that series got absolutely owned along the boards, and had barely any contested pucks won in the series. In the rest of the measured games in his career, he's got surprisingly good stats in this regard. Willy shied away from the front of the net against Boston. The rest of his career his shot charts clearly show that he goes frequently to the slot, something that also shows up in other metrics. His Boston series was night and day compared to absolutely everything he has ever shown before, in any kind of shape or form.

So then the question is - why did Nylander's level of play drop in the playoffs? If it was a 7 game stretch during the season it wouldn't be an issue but when he goes from "near elite" to "abysmal" the minute the playoffs start, that would be a valid concern no?

 

[ZEBROA]

So then the question is - why did Nylander's level of play drop in the playoffs? If it was a 7 game stretch during the season it wouldn't be an issue but when he goes from "near elite" to "abysmal" the minute the playoffs start, that would be a valid concern no?

Matthew did too so maby they influenced each other in a bad way. And Hyman just hymand the best he could wich made him look great. Its like they accidentally turned off the chemestry switch and never found it again. Maby they should have switch lines earlier.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Matthew did too so maby they influenced each other in a bad way. And Hyman just hymand the best he could wich made him look great. Its like they accidentally turned off the chemestry switch and never found it again. Maby they should have switch lines earlier.

Haha could be.