William Nylander Value/Contract

[Notsince67]

I don’t think anybody is trying to argue that he played well against Boston - because he didntZ

What some people are challenging is the notion that this recent series should define who he is as a player or mean more than everything else he’s done as young player/prospect.

Fair point. I don't think he isn't redeemable but it gets harder and harder as he gets older.
This is where Babcock earns his money. I know that Matthews, Marner, Reilly, Dermott etc. will get better and if they don't, I have time to assess what to do with them. Do I really feel confident enough being strapped to a long term with Willy? Maybe at the right price. At $6MM, I might have to eat .5MM/yr if I have to trade him (not terrible). At $7MM?....way too much.
Would Willy accept a 6x7 contract?...I doubt it.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Delusional. Please explain...

What does the below first two quotes have to do with me thinking it is borderline delusional to twist what happened in a few games into a career issue, when there's literally no support for such an assertion?

... why he is never on the ice when protecting the lead late in games and I do not mean the last two minutes it is much longer then that.

Babcock has a short list of people he trusts in the last few minutes. Like most of our forwards, including Marner up until the end of this year, Nylander is not on it. And the results of how Babcock handles the last few minutes with leads have been bad, so it's not like the decision looks terrific.

And that Nylander is not on the ice in much longer than the last two minutes in the third is demonstrably false.

Then also please explain the amount of times Babcock has removed him from playing with Mathews and put him elsewhere perfering Brown there?

Because the line, like all other lines, sometimes goes stale. And Babcock obviously does not "perfer" Brown there, considering he plays Nylander there as much as he can. Which has been quite obviously the better option, as the line has dropped off considerably without Nylander there.

Then while you are at it look at post game threads and see just how many times people have said the same thing I have been saying every time we play a physical team. It is very consistent and even the Marlie coached benched him in the playoffs for the same reason as the team we were playing were very physical. It has been since his career had started and you calling me delusional is priceless when people seem to conveniently forgot that this was not a 7 game series issue but his NHL career to date issue. Happens in every physical game more so on the road as we lack last change.

Nylander has produced better on the road than at home. If you look at his spread of production and underlying numbers, the trend you speak of is not there.

So you are making stuff up. You claim things that demonstrably false. When I argue against how you attribute how he played against Boston to the rest of his career, you answer by just throwing random crap at Nylander. And you want to claim that you are being reasonable on this topic? You're acting like Pookie when he talks about Kadri.

You can argue that he lapsed but the rest of your statement....? Perhaps disappear is the wrong word. He was quite visibly **** against Boston.

I don't think anyone disputes that.

Actually nhl player development is charted almost always as a gamma curve in the first few years. Not sure the point here.
Outside the quantitative descriptions, there are also some qualitative attributes of champions. Champions perform when they need to. Call it heart, compete, grit...etc.

Champions like Crosby? Last time he met Boston and was matched up like Nylander was, he had 0 points in 4 games and was absolutely dominated as the Penguins got swept.

It's one series.

 

[diceman934]

Marner spent two months on the fourth line this year for the same type of stuff.

Lol no he never did. He never avoids high traffic areas or avoids checks etc. He spent time there because the line was not playing well and he was not scoring and was far worse without him. Every line Marner played on played a lot better with him on it.

Nylander and Marner are not comparable I the way they play and the impact they have on the team.

 

[Notsince67]

Champions like Crosby? Last time he met Boston and was matched up like Nylander was, he had 0 points in 4 games and was absolutely dominated as the Penguins got swept.

It's one series.

Specious. My earlier stat of Nylander's lack of carry out success would not happen with Crosby in a single game.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Specious. My earlier stat of Nylander's lack of carry out success would not happen with Crosby in a single game.

Perhaps not. He still got dominated by pretty much every metric during that series.

The point remains. Everybody can have a terrible series, even proven champions and Conn Smythe-worthy playoff performers. I don't think some lack of carry out success changes that.

Every line Marner played on played a lot better with him on it.

Statistically, this fits one player on this team well, and that happens to be Nylander.

The Matthews line has been much better with Nylander on it.
The Kadri line saw an improvement with Nylander on it.*
The fourth line saw an impprovement with Nylander on it.
He never played with Bozak.

Marner has barely played with the Matthews line.
The Kadri line saw an improvement with Marner over Brown.
The Bozak line actually had similar success with Brown on it.
Marner improved the fourth line as well.

* With the exception during when Komarov was on the other wing, as that line was brutal.

 

[Notsince67]

Perhaps not. He still got dominated by pretty much every metric during that series.

The point remains. Everybody can have a terrible series, even proven champions and Conn Smythe-worthy playoff performers. I don't think some lack of carry out success changes that.

Not arguing but lets stay to the point. What is Willie worth?
Like I said before....I'm ok for 7yrs but not a penny more than $6MM and that has some risk. I just figure eating .5MM a year isn't terrible as a floor for a potential return of something beter

 

[Nithoniniel]

Not arguing but lets stay to the point. What is Willie worth?
Like I said before....I'm ok for 7yrs but not a penny more than $6MM and that has some risk. I just figure eating .5MM a year isn't terrible as a floor for a potential return of something beter

I don't see a return that would be worth it. We'd look at a young NHL RHD with top pairing potential, and those guys are not available.

I'd do the Ehlers contract, or something similar. It's pretty much market value for a guy with his impact, and is manageable if he doesn't progress (which is unlikely), and can be a steal if he does.

 

[Kiwi]

Exactly what was said of Phaneuf

Did you just use Phaneuf as a reason not to give Nylander a long term deal? And if so I'd like to know what the **** your reasoning is

 

[Kiwi]

Do you watch games with your eyes open or closed?

He is not being singled out it is a fact that he avoids high traffic areas against physical teams. He has ALWAYS did so and he did so against Washington last year. It is an issue.

So Nylander along with Matthew's are clearly our best players during the playoffs last season but thats not good enough because you didn't like the areas of the ice he went to?

Interesting you have that option since it quite clearly worked, or don't results work for you? Oh right the whole "those points don't count as much" rubbish

 

[diceman934]

So Nylander along with Matthew's are clearly our best players during the playoffs last season but thats not good enough because you didn't like the areas of the ice he went to?

Interesting you have that option since it quite clearly worked, or don't results work for you? Oh right the whole "those points don't count as much" rubbish

Maybe if you had a good grasp of hockey you would know what high traffic area means.


Last year he did the same as he did this year as he avoided high traffic areas and checks all over the ice. You simply do not have a concept of what it takes to win in the playoffs as you can not have a player avoid areas of the ice that he may be on the recieving end of a big hit.

Have you watched any playoff hockey this year. Boston got owned as they really were not as good as most made them out to be.

Watch LasVegas and point out one player who plays like a frighten child. You will see player after player taking checks to keep possession or to keep a puck in or get the puck out. Those are the areas he avoided and no way should he be rewarded with a long term contract.

FYI I have never been a trade Nylander poster on here but he will find himself out if he does not get over his fear of being hit.

 

[bentharbs]

Why is everyone so salty?

 

[Notsince67]

Did you just use Phaneuf as a reason not to give Nylander a long term deal? And if so I'd like to know what the **** your reasoning is

You need to ask? Phaneuf was like an albatross. If you don't Fing know...do a bit of research.
Leafs got rid of him by taking bad contracts.
Ottawa got rid of him by eating $1,750,000 per year.
Toronto currently eating $1,200,000 from Kessels long term.
Toronto had sign some crappy long term contracts.
This is well known by anybody who knows this team so in the future, you should ask..."excuse me sir...I'm a little ignorant on the subject do can you please tell me what you mean?"
You might come across as a little smarter

 

[Notsince67]

I don't see a return that would be worth it. We'd look at a young NHL RHD with top pairing potential, and those guys are not available.

I'd do the Ehlers contract, or something similar. It's pretty much market value for a guy with his impact, and is manageable if he doesn't progress (which is unlikely), and can be a steal if he does.

So we agree. I don't think Nylander will take it though

 

[Kiwi]

Maybe if you had a good grasp of hockey you would know what high traffic area means.


Last year he did the same as he did this year as he avoided high traffic areas and checks all over the ice. You simply do not have a concept of what it takes to win in the playoffs as you can not have a player avoid areas of the ice that he may be on the recieving end of a big hit.

Have you watched any playoff hockey this year. Boston got owned as they really were not as good as most made them out to be.

Watch LasVegas and point out one player who plays like a frighten child. You will see player after player taking checks to keep possession or to keep a puck in or get the puck out. Those are the areas he avoided and no way should he be rewarded with a long term contract.

FYI I have never been a trade Nylander poster on here but he will find himself out if he does not get over his fear of being hit.

I don't give a **** where he scores from all I care about is production, he's a 60 point regular season player with one good playoff series and one bad one, if he gets the same amount of PP points as last season this season he's a 70 point player ffs

If all this toughness high traffic area stuff you spout meant anything he would have been a no show last season down the stretch and into the playoffs which is completely incorrect since he was arguably our best player

How do you explain That?

You need to ask? Phaneuf was like an albatross. If you don't Fing know...do a bit of research.
Leafs got rid of him by taking bad contracts.
Ottawa got rid of him by eating $1,750,000 per year.
Toronto currently eating $1,200,000 from Kessels long term.
Toronto had sign some crappy long term contracts.
This is well known by anybody who knows this team so in the future, you should ask..."excuse me sir...I'm a little ignorant on the subject do can you please tell me what you mean?"
You might come across as a little smarter

This is without doubt one of the stupidest things I've read on here

You are comparing guys in there late 20's getting overinflated UFA contracts to a kid in his early 20's getting an RFA contract right in line with what he's worth that has a significant chance of being a bargain as soon as next season

You should probably knock off the condescension and get actual comparables instead of this rubbish

 

[Menzinger]

I don't give a **** where he scores from all I care about is production, he's a 60 point regular season player with one good playoff series and one bad one, if he gets the same amount of PP points as last season this season he's a 70 point player ffs

If all this toughness high traffic area stuff you spout meant anything he would have been a no show last season down the stretch and into the playoffs which is completely incorrect since he was arguably our best player

How do you explain That?





This is without doubt one of the stupidest things I've read on here

You are comparing guys in there late 20's getting overinflated UFA contracts to a kid in his early 20's getting an RFA contract right in line with what he's worth that has a significant chance of being a bargain as soon as next season

You should probably knock off the condescension and get actual comparables instead of this rubbish

Yeah, I don’t see how then comparison fits either. Age differences aside, all the underlying numbers suggest Nylander is going to increase rather than decrease his production.

I’d go as far as to say there’s next to zero risk signing him to an Elhers type deal

 

[Kiwi]

Yeah, I don’t see how then comparison fits either. Age differences aside, all the underlying numbers suggest Nylander is going to increase rather than decrease his production.

I’d go as far as to say there’s next to zero risk signing him to an Elhers type deal

Even if he stays a 60 point player (which I doubt) he's still basically getting paid what he's worth

Unless he gets hit by a bus this is a slam dunk

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Maybe if you had a good grasp of hockey you would know what high traffic area means.


Last year he did the same as he did this year as he avoided high traffic areas and checks all over the ice. You simply do not have a concept of what it takes to win in the playoffs as you can not have a player avoid areas of the ice that he may be on the recieving end of a big hit.

Have you watched any playoff hockey this year. Boston got owned as they really were not as good as most made them out to be.

Watch LasVegas and point out one player who plays like a frighten child. You will see player after player taking checks to keep possession or to keep a puck in or get the puck out. Those are the areas he avoided and no way should he be rewarded with a long term contract.

FYI I have never been a trade Nylander poster on here but he will find himself out if he does not get over his fear of being hit.

Do you think the Dubas hiring will impact Nylander's future contract?

 

[Nithoniniel]

As can be seen in the below visualizations, Nylander never goes to high traffic areas like the slot. As can be seen here, everything is right around the perimeter. Because it couldn't be that some people here are continuously making crap up to try to tear down one of our core players because they are [inconvenienced in their hindquarters] over a bad performance in 5 or so games.

 

[MR4]

Omg Nith it's like he's shooting from the fans' seats it's so on the perimeter!

Like it's been said before, even if he plateau's at 60 points, he's still worth 6M. And there's no reason to think he's done developing.

 

[Funk21]

His comparables this past year was Ehlers, 60 points in your sophomore year is nothing to sneeze at but when Matthews was out he was all but invisible. He needs to work on that.

Because of inflation and a rising cap he will likely get 6.25-6.5 long term. That is 7/8 years. If he wants just 6 years then it should be under 6 IMO.

 

[Nithoniniel]

when Matthews was out he was all but invisible. He needs to work on that.

I think this needs to be expanded on. When Matthews was out, Nylander transitioned into a center role on a line that was used as our second matchup line*, mostly got stapled with two offensively limited in Hyman and Brown, and still actually improved on his season average in several key metrics (don't remember exactly which ones the visualization I saw used, think it was CF% and xGF%.) Yeah the production wasn't really there, but it's important to note that not even Matthews produced much at all when playing with those two as his wingers. In fact, Nylander with those two performed better than Matthews with those two. Context is important. It was a pretty good run for Willy that got his coach trusting him as a center and talking about him as a future center again.

* That is, he and his line was used in the exact same way as when it was Matthews line.

Edit: Come to think of it, I think Marleau and Hyman was probably just as common combination of linemates during that sequence. There was also a period or so when Babcock tried Marner on his wing. Take that into account when reading the above.

 

[Notsince67]

As can be seen in the below visualizations, Nylander never goes to high traffic areas like the slot. As can be seen here, everything is right around the perimeter. Because it couldn't be that some people here are continuously making crap up to try to tear down one of our core players because they are [inconvenienced in their hindquarters] over a bad performance in 5 or so games.

Scoring chances are half the story. Interesting chart though. Explains the failure to score with the Bruins though. One of the best teams in the slot. He is pretty neutral in helping team mates. Marner's comparison (second chart) is an eye opener. CLEARLY Marner makes teammates better.

 

[Stephen]

With Marner ahead of Nylander for the time being, and Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom seemingly ready to take on full time jobs (and excel) and Bracco and Timashov following behind, the Leafs have a plethora of skilled wingers. Seems to me like it would make sense to bridge Nylander for 2-3 years in the hopes he emerges as a David Pastrnak and then make a decision at a later date than to lock him up for 7-8 years. He's like a great thing we have a lot of good substitutes for, but depending on his development, might be a luxury that we have available substitutions for. I'm certainly glad not to be making that decision.

 

[kindalaidback]

lol, imagine thinking these players are better than william.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Scoring chances are half the story. Interesting chart though. Explains the failure to score with the Bruins though. One of the best teams in the slot. He is pretty neutral in helping team mates. Marner's comparison (second chart) is an eye opener. CLEARLY Marner makes teammates better.

Yeah I looked at those too. Marner definitely had a stronger effect on his linemates than Nylander this season*. I think Nylander's for last season is the most impressive. He had everyone but one player perform better with him than without him. And I wouldn't say that he had a neutral effect. The only ones that did better away from him were the sheltered bottom pairing options, and quite a few that did worse.

I'd suggest that a big part of the effects at display here, aside from the obvious boost players get from playing with someone good, is what change in context these scenarios incur. I think part of the reason why everybody played better with Nylander last season was that when people were moved onto his line, it was usually a move towards a more sheltered line. So they played with a good player, while playing more in the offensive zone against lesser competition. This season Babcock did not shelter Nylander the same way, so some might actually play harder minutes with him than without him.

* It's interesting that so many measures seem to contradict themselves. An article a while ago brought up a comparison between Marner and Nylander. They went into a lot of these questions, and one of the things they pointed out was that when you looked at line combinations that they were part of compared to other common line combinations without them, Marner didn't have the same pronounced effect. The Bozak line was for example just as effective with Brown. And I know they brought up that RelTM values favored Nylander.

The thing that separates Marner from Nylander at the moment, in my opinion, is his upward trajectory. He improved his two-way game while becoming a PPG player second half of this season, and his high OISH% over that time only explains part of that development.