William Nylander Value/Contract

[Havoc]

Nylander can be Matt Barzal if he wants too. If Nylander changes his ways, the Leafs will regret moving him. But rarely a player changes his ways. Nylander is by far the most difficult Leafs player to handle moving forward.
Are #3c minutes enough for his talent? If he isnt responsible defensively, Kadri will always have the #2 c. His salary factors into what position he plays on this team. Far more money on the 1st line vs 3rd line.
The franchise player, Matthews is telling the media in his exit interviews he wants to play with Marner. This was not a comment in passing. There was no endorsement of Nylander, the man Marner would replace on that line. When u factor in Nylanders disappearing acts, having him overall as a linemate would be frustrating, unrealible feeling.

I didn't know Barzal was turning into a selke force.

 

[diceman934]

The OEL resigning in Arizona made it less likely now that Nylander is traded.

If Arizona couldn't have gotten him resigned I thought Leafs might take a shot and it would likely have costed them Nylander as a key component.

How about an even better D man.

Ottawa is shopping their stud and LA may be interested in trading their stud.

Add in Gardiner and a pickand bob is your uncle.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Nylander is star quality. Learn from the mistake Montreal made with Subban. Bridge deals are for the young players that aren't star caliber talent but have unexpectedly achieved great things early. ROR when he was in Colorado is an example of a bridge deal candidate.

In the days of the cap you don't monkey around with top young talent. These are the guys you sign to max deals in term.

Nylander has the worst compete level on this team. Nylander forechecking during the playoffs was embarassing. He was Leafs version of Kessel. He would slow down on purpose to avoid contact. Possession given away, no battle. I can only imagine how Hyman or Brown would view this from the bench. Two guys with heart who love the game and give themselves. I cant watch this play out and have his game negatively impact this team.

I give him the Kadri short term contract to change your ways or your out of town. Nylander doesnt have to play the body, Connor Brown is a great example of how to do it and not over power people in the corners or along the wall and get the puck back.

I feel its inevitable they trade him.

 

[Stephen]

If Nylander doesn't up his compete level, he's going to always be a weakness in big game situations. No one's asking him to be Wendel Clark, but when you see the work someone like Brayden Point does or Mitch Marner does in heavy physical situations, he has his work cut out for him.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Well he has been a late game replacement every time we are protecting a league since he started his NHL career as Babcock does not trust him to pay the price to get the puck out of our zone. You thinking it was only in this years playoffs are wrong. It has been a constant issue.

If the reason Babcock doesn't use him late is because he doesn't trust him to get the puck out, then that's a Babcock issue since Nylander is one of the best on the team at getting the puck out of our zone. He does sometimes get weak on the puck, especially on his backhand, but overall he's been absolutely terrific in this area.

If Nylander doesn't up his compete level, he's going to always be a weakness in big game situations.

Worst case scenario he becomes a playoff liability like that Kessel, eh?

Edit: Well that's maybe a but unfair to Kessel. The thing is, you mention Marner. He looked terrific, and he went fearlessly into traffic. That's also what Nylander did last year. The difference is that this year he had a monster of a man against him on almost every shift, something that Marner saw very little of.

Nylander is a terrific young player with a terrific track record, with tons of positives in almost every area of the game, and who showed already last year that he can perform in the playoffs. To ignore all that because he went up against Chara, got manhandled and lost his mojo as a result in a few games is absolutely beyond me.

Not directed at you, Stephen, but some here would be terrific yes men to a Chiarelli. I can totally see them encourage, for example, the decision that sent Seguin to Dallas for whatever they could get. Remarkably similar argumentation.

 

[Stephen]

If the reason Babcock doesn't use him late is because he doesn't trust him to get the puck out, then that's a Babcock issue since Nylander is one of the best on the team at getting the puck out of our zone. He does sometimes get weak on the puck, especially on his backhand, but overall he's been absolutely terrific in this area.


Worst case scenario he becomes a playoff liability like that Kessel, eh?

Edit: Well that's maybe a but unfair to Kessel. The thing is, you mention Marner. He looked terrific, and he went fearlessly into traffic. That's also what Nylander did last year. The difference is that this year he had a monster of a man against him on almost every shift, something that Marner saw very little of.

Nylander is a terrific young player with a terrific track record, with tons of positives in almost every area of the game, and who showed already last year that he can perform in the playoffs. To ignore all that because he went up against Chara, got manhandled and lost his mojo as a result in a few games is absolutely beyond me.

Not directed at you, Stephen, but some here would be terrific yes men to a Chiarelli. I can totally see them encourage, for example, the decision that sent Seguin to Dallas for whatever they could get. Remarkably similar argumentation.

Whatever frustration I have about Nylander is it's a snapshot in time. Earlier in the season Nylander looked all pro and Marner looked like his head was still in London, but things evolve and will evolve again. Generally I have high hopes for Nylander still, but really didn't like the way the software was working under duress against Chara and is one of those "wait and see items" he needs to prove himself on.

 

[Notsince67]

If the reason Babcock doesn't use him late is because he doesn't trust him to get the puck out, then that's a Babcock issue since Nylander is one of the best on the team at getting the puck out of our zone. He does sometimes get weak on the puck, especially on his backhand, but overall he's been absolutely terrific in this area.

Nylander’s carry-outs end in failed plays immediately after ...47.4 % of the time in the bruin series. Marner is only failing to make a pass or carry the puck through the neutral zone 12.5 per cent of the time. Granted Marner is second to Nylander in carryouts, the success rate amounts to a huge gap.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Whatever frustration I have about Nylander is it's a snapshot in time. Earlier in the season Nylander looked all pro and Marner looked like his head was still in London, but things evolve and will evolve again. Generally I have high hopes for Nylander still, but really didn't like the way the software was working under duress against Chara and is one of those "wait and see items" he needs to prove himself on.

Very reasonable, this.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nylander’s carry-outs end in failed plays immediately after ...47.4 % of the time in the bruin series. Marner is only failing to make a pass or carry the puck through the neutral zone 12.5 per cent of the time. Granted Marner is second to Nylander in carryouts, the success rate amounts to a huge gap.

That's very interesting. I was looking at a larger sample there, but I think this illustrates just how much Willy struggled in this series.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner and Matthews are getting offers this summer? Did I miss this news somehow?

Right! They might get offers but they likely will not accept unless they are optimistic of next year

 

[Menzinger]

Right! They might get offers but they likely will not accept unless they are optimistic of next year

Depends on the offer.

I mean Matthews likely is going to get what he wants now anyways, his agent may just prefer to get it locked up now. Marner may likely want to hold off another year, hope he hits 70+ points and then earn a larger contract.

 

[Kiwi]

I have a reason why he does not deserve a long term contract at a cap hit that takes into account future value as his future is up in the air.
You are wrong as he was always replaced late in games when protecting leads. He avoided checks in playoff games and was a key reason we lost in the playoffs as he had to be replaced so Mathews had players who would at least battle for pucks.

Focusing on pts only creates opportunities for huge mistakes on contracts as he hates the physical game and had the opportunity to play with a great talent something he will not be doing again this coming season. 60 points is not a given next year playing as a #3 center nor as a winger playing with Kadri.

I simply do not see the need to sign him to a long term deal at anything over 5m as he has to many question surrounding his game.

Many posters on here fail to see just how bad his game is when the games get physical as most have never played the game. Or are from the other side of the pond and just simply do not understand. Just watch the playoffs now and see just what it takes to win in the playoffs and understanding Nylanders game and he simply is not a player at this time that can help us win in the playoffs which is our goal.

So we give him a two year deal with the understanding that he shows that he can contribute when we need him. If he fails to show this we trade him and get back assests that can help us right away.

I've got a few problems with this

I don't care if he on the ice protecting leads late or not, he's one of the guys we rely on to get us leads in the first place, by that metric Brown is a stud never mind the fact he sucked for large portions of this season and couldn't score to save himself or help us get leads

The whole sucks in the playoffs narrative has to end as well, Nylander was excellent against Washington and him + Matthew's were one of the major reasons that series went to 6 games, by that Metric Matthew's shouldn't get paid either because he completely sucked against Boston as well and was even worse after Nylander was taken off his line

The kid Is ****** talented and if we can get him locked up at 6M long term we should do it, not what you want which is to take one playoff series start talking about toughess like Brian Burke and bridge him because he "hasn't earned it" which is complete bull**** when he's hit 61 points twice in his career and got 4 points in each of the two playoff series he's played

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

That he has stalled is not really true. This season he went from playing a sheltered role to playing a secondary match up role with much, much tougher minutes. Despite that he saw his point production at even strength rise by quite a bit*, and the only reason he didn't hit 70 points this season is because of the PP. Analysis of the second PP unit shows that it wasn't the fault of Willie or Auston**, teams just took away the pass between them which left the puck carrier as the only threat as none of the others did anything at all, ever.

He was definitely invisible in the playoffs.

One thing I don't understand here is the idea that due to the idea that he's stalled, he isn't worth committing too long term. That's absurd. Even if he never would have developed going forward, he's still a first line forward with elite transition game. You tie up a player like that long-term in an instant. And that's in a scenario where a guy entering his 22 year old season never develop.

* He ended up at #44 in even strength production in the league, despite playing less than almost everyone above him.

** Speaking of Auston, I know people will bring him up as a retort to this. When apart, Auston suffered more than Nylander. Willie went on to play easier minutes but with worse players***, and actually improved in many metrics. Not the same production, but that's quite understandable given the difference in shooting talent on his line. Auston on the other hand fell off a cliff when Brown took Nylander's place. Which is not said to try and diminish Auston, it's just very hard to get much done playing with two guys that have limited offensive and transition ability. But Willy takes on a huge role on his line, all the way from winning pucks back**** to transitioning the puck up, to taking on the main playmaking role on his line.)

*** And we know that linemate quality has a bigger effect than opposition quality.

**** Willy ended up as a top 5 player in the league when looking at venue-adjusted takeaways compared to ice time.

I would ask you, is 61 points *really* a first line forward on a team we want to be a contending team? And maybe that applies to the whole roster of forwards. I think I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $6.5 or 7M a season get 80 points and I guess I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $10.5M get 100 points. If you ask me, that's the production those salaries warrant. Neither of the players I'm clearly talking about have earned those salaries. It's not just about locking up a guy long term at whatever cost.

 

[Menzinger]

I would ask you, is 61 points *really* a first line forward on a team we want to be a contending team? And maybe that applies to the whole roster of forwards. I think I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $6.5 or 7M a season get 80 points and I guess I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $10.5M get 100 points. If you ask me, that's the production those salaries warrant. Neither of the players I'm clearly talking about have earned those salaries. It's not just about locking up a guy long term at whatever cost.

It’s 61 points as a rookie/sophomore and every underlying statistic points to him increasing as he enters his prime years. Betting on Nylander’s offense is probably the safest thing a team could do when it comes to a contract.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I would ask you, is 61 points *really* a first line forward on a team we want to be a contending team? And maybe that applies to the whole roster of forwards. I think I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $6.5 or 7M a season get 80 points and I guess I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $10.5M get 100 points. If you ask me, that's the production those salaries warrant. Neither of the players I'm clearly talking about have earned those salaries. It's not just about locking up a guy long term at whatever cost.

Well what you describe and want to pay for here is not in line with the market. There's an ocean in between what you describe here and as "locking up a guy long term at whatever cost."

 

[Stephen]

I would ask you, is 61 points *really* a first line forward on a team we want to be a contending team? And maybe that applies to the whole roster of forwards. I think I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $6.5 or 7M a season get 80 points and I guess I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $10.5M get 100 points. If you ask me, that's the production those salaries warrant. Neither of the players I'm clearly talking about have earned those salaries. It's not just about locking up a guy long term at whatever cost.

Agreed. From a fan/management position, I'm going hardline on Nylander even if I think he's a good player with great potential because he's had ups and downs which should balance out his value. There's no reason to destroy the cap structure on a player just because you're desperate to move ahead with the Big Three narrative in the hopes they live up to expectations.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I would ask you, is 61 points *really* a first line forward on a team we want to be a contending team? And maybe that applies to the whole roster of forwards. I think I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $6.5 or 7M a season get 80 points and I guess I'd like to see the guy we're talking about paying $10.5M get 100 points. If you ask me, that's the production those salaries warrant. Neither of the players I'm clearly talking about have earned those salaries. It's not just about locking up a guy long term at whatever cost.

The problem with this is that your evaluation of what that money should pay for versus what the market actually is is not comparable. 6-7 million nowadays gets you a bonafide top 6 forward, not an elite scorer (which is what 80 point players are). Patrick Kane is making 10.5 million and he's only come close to or exceeded 100 points once. Toews has never cracked 80. Eichel has yet to hit 60. Nylander is a first line player currently that has all the promise you could want of turning in to one of those elite point producers I talked about. Ridiculous skill level, strongest possession player on the team, excellent puck carrier, and a proven offensive track record wherever he's played. 6-7 million if we get term would be a fantastic contract and people here need to wake up and smell the coffee. Too often we celebrate dime a dozen players like Hyman and Brown because they work hard, even if they don't produce results, where as actually talented players like Nylander get run out of town.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Agreed. From a fan/management position, I'm going hardline on Nylander even if I think he's a good player with great potential because he's had ups and downs which should balance out his value. There's no reason to destroy the cap structure on a player just because you're desperate to move ahead with the Big Three narrative in the hopes they live up to expectations.

You are not destroying the cap structure by giving term at a fair cap hit (looking at comparables 6-7 million is 100% fair for Nylander) to a sure fire core piece. You only run in to cap trouble when you are unable to draft and develop cheap talent or hand out bad contracts to bad players. (Looking at you Lucic). People here complain about our center depth yet want to trade arguably the second best center on the team?

 

[diceman934]

I've got a few problems with this

I don't care if he on the ice protecting leads late or not, he's one of the guys we rely on to get us leads in the first place, by that metric Brown is a stud never mind the fact he sucked for large portions of this season and couldn't score to save himself or help us get leads

The whole sucks in the playoffs narrative has to end as well, Nylander was excellent against Washington and him + Matthew's were one of the major reasons that series went to 6 games, by that Metric Matthew's shouldn't get paid either because he completely sucked against Boston as well and was even worse after Nylander was taken off his line

The kid Is ****** talented and if we can get him locked up at 6M long term we should do it, not what you want which is to take one playoff series start talking about toughess like Brian Burke and bridge him because he "hasn't earned it" which is complete bull**** when he's hit 61 points twice in his career and got 4 points in each of the two playoff series he's played

See you simply do not get it... we want to build a cup winning team and it becomes real hard when you are paying 6m plus for a player who is afraid of his own shadow. Just an FYI regular season points mean squat when you are ineffective in the playoffs he either buys in or is shipped off for players who are needed.

Brain Burke has nothing to do with him being a chicken shit. He has been since he started in the NHL not just this year against Boston in the playoffs.

 

[Maplebeasts]

See you simply do not get it... we want to build a cup winning team and it becomes real hard when you are paying 6m plus for a player who is afraid of his own shadow. Just an FYI regular season points mean squat when you are ineffective in the playoffs he either buys in or is shipped off for players who are needed.

Brain Burke has nothing to do with him being a chicken ****. He has been since he started in the NHL not just this year against Boston in the playoffs.

Was he a chicken shit against Washington last year? Maybe his struggles had more to do with being matched up against Chara, Marchand and Bergeron often than being afraid. Only a dinosaur would give up on a 21 year old first liner with much greater potential because they don't play tough or physical. There's a reason this kind of thinking is dying in the league today.

 

[diceman934]

The problem with this is that your evaluation of what that money should pay for versus what the market actually is is not comparable. 6-7 million nowadays gets you a bonafide top 6 forward, not an elite scorer (which is what 80 point players are). Patrick Kane is making 10.5 million and he's only come close to or exceeded 100 points once. Toews has never cracked 80. Eichel has yet to hit 60. Nylander is a first line player currently that has all the promise you could want of turning in to one of those elite point producers I talked about. Ridiculous skill level, strongest possession player on the team, excellent puck carrier, and a proven offensive track record wherever he's played. 6-7 million if we get term would be a fantastic contract and people here need to wake up and smell the coffee. Too often we celebrate dime a dozen players like Hyman and Brown because they work hard, even if they don't produce results, where as actually talented players like Nylander get run out of town.

If Nylander gets run out of town it will be his lack of determination that he rides out on.

The kid is very talented but he has been exposed as a player who simply will not pay the price to help his team win. That needs to change before we should be willing to sign him to any long term deal.

Another thing he will not be playing with Mathews this coming season as well as maybe playing center and he has not established that he can carry a line not established that he can produce numbers that would see him earn 6-7m a year away from a number one center. A bridge deal is what I see for both of the reasons I have discussed and if he can compete hard and stop pulling the chute and produce offense away from Mathews then pay the man his money.

One last thing he will not be playing on the 1st line this coming season and paying as a first line player when he will be a 3rd line center or a 2nd line winger seems silly so another reason to bridge him so he can show value in his long term role.

 

[diceman934]

Was he a chicken **** against Washington last year? Maybe his struggles had more to do with being matched up against Chara, Marchand and Bergeron often than being afraid. Only a dinosaur would give up on a 21 year old first liner with much greater potential because they don't play tough or physical. There's a reason this kind of thinking is dying in the league today.

Yes he has always been a chicken shit. Have you even watched the playoffs games this year if so name a team with a candy ass playing on it. He did not struggle he showed fear that had nothing to do with his opponents but all to do with fear as he pulled the chute and turned away from making a 50/50 puck battle so many times I wanted to puke.

The game still requires a player willing to take a hit to help his team win and this is today and not bygone years. I am looking to bridge him and not give up on him but if he can not complete when we need him to we cut bait and move away from him as paying him a lot of money to tuck tail seems silly and hurts our chances at winning the cup which is what I want. I could care less if we had 3 regular season 100 point players but they hid when the games get real.

 

[Stephen]

Was he a chicken **** against Washington last year? Maybe his struggles had more to do with being matched up against Chara, Marchand and Bergeron often than being afraid. Only a dinosaur would give up on a 21 year old first liner with much greater potential because they don't play tough or physical. There's a reason this kind of thinking is dying in the league today.

Part of the evaluation process with Nylander is if he can turn up the intensity and learn to thrive in those situations.

 

[Menzinger]

Agreed. From a fan/management position, I'm going hardline on Nylander even if I think he's a good player with great potential because he's had ups and downs which should balance out his value. There's no reason to destroy the cap structure on a player just because you're desperate to move ahead with the Big Three narrative in the hopes they live up to expectations.

Though is paying a guy 6ish million really destroying his cap structure? It’s not as if folks are advocating he get 8+ million. It’s what’s in line with every reasonable salary/contract comparison.

 

[Kiwi]

See you simply do not get it... we want to build a cup winning team and it becomes real hard when you are paying 6m plus for a player who is afraid of his own shadow. Just an FYI regular season points mean squat when you are ineffective in the playoffs he either buys in or is shipped off for players who are needed.

Brain Burke has nothing to do with him being a chicken ****. He has been since he started in the NHL not just this year against Boston in the playoffs.

Except that's complete bull**** because he was one of our best players against Washington during last season's playoffs or are we pretending that didn't happen?

His major line-mate played struggled like **** and played even worse without Nylander on his wing so why Nylander is the one being singled out is beyond me and it's not exactly like the rest of this team loves contact either