William Karlsson Vs William Nylander

[Castle8130]

Castle8130 "hahaha in my imagination I made up a scenario where Leaf fans look dumb, hahaha Laff fans XD"

My imagination is just as preposterous as this thread. Disregarding leaf and knight fans, this should be a ainec thread. Nylander will never have as good of a season as karlsson just had.

 

[PuckSeparator]

Nylander is soft as butter, not a playoffs guy at all. William Karlsson is much better at this point at everything hockey related outside of maybe passing, and plays close to Selke level D.

 

[HanSolo]

I'll take the guy that can shut down star players and still turn around and make game changing plays offensively even if said player sees his production drop. Nylander isn't in the same atmosphere defensively.

 

[Randy Randerson]

My imagination is just as preposterous as this thread. Disregarding leaf and knight fans, this should be a ainec thread. Nylander will never have as good of a season as karlsson just had.

there's a pretty good case to be made that Nylander's rookie season was as good as the season that Karlsson just had, luck being the big differentiating factor.

Karlsson 17/18
goals - 43
assists - 35
CF% - 53.8%
FF% - 53.9%
CF%.rel - 3.7
FF%.rel - 3.9
shots - 184
SH% - 23.4% (highest of any player with 80 games played in the last 20 years)
OIsh% - 11.7%

Nylander 16/17
goals - 22
assists - 39
CF% - 53.2%
FF% - 53.0%
CF%.rel - 3.6
FF%.rel - 4.3
shots - 205
SH% - 10.7%
OIsh% - 6.9%

with Karlsson's shooting and OIsh%, Nylander would have had 48 goals and 103 pts. And that's not to say that Nylander is a 48 goal/103 point player, but it should underline how lucky Karlsson was this year

 

[Newsworthy]

WilBilll is a two way forward who scored 43 goals last year.
Wow.

 

[PuckSeparator]

there's a pretty good case to be made that Nylander's rookie season was as good as the season that Karlsson just had, luck being the big differentiating factor.

Karlsson 17/18
goals - 43
assists - 35
CF% - 53.8%
FF% - 53.9%
CF%.rel - 3.7
FF%.rel - 3.9
shots - 184
SH% - 23.4% (highest of any player with 80 games played in the last 20 years)
OIsh% - 11.7%

Nylander 16/17
goals - 22
assists - 39
CF% - 53.2%
FF% - 53.0%
CF%.rel - 3.6
FF%.rel - 4.3
shots - 205
SH% - 10.7%
OIsh% - 6.9%

with Karlsson's shooting and OIsh%, Nylander would have had 48 goals and 103 pts. And that's not to say that Nylander is a 48 goal/103 point player, but it should underline how lucky Karlsson was this year

Which line did Nylander play on? Karlsson was a #1C that shut down opposing top lines and contributed 43 goals. I think we have to be careful about using these stats, there's often a huge difference between attracting the toughest assignments night in night out vs playing against weaker opposition.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Which line did Nylander play on? Karlsson was a #1C that shut down opposing top lines and contributed 43 goals. I think we have to be careful about using these stats, there's often a huge difference between attracting the toughest assignments night in night out vs playing against weaker opposition.

Nylander would have been the 1RW for about 2/3 of that season playing with Matthews and Hyman, which drew the toughest competition during away games and Babcock would have tried to get that line match ups they could take advantage of at home, very similar to Karlsson

agree that Karlsson at center is an important consideration, what I'm trying to point out is that his 43 goal/78pt campaign was heavily influenced by pucks going in at a considerably higher rate than they are likely to over a larger sample. Karlsson's season is really more like a 30ish goal/60ish point season in terms of performance that was inflated by luck, which is still a hell of a season for an expansion draftee

 

[PuckSeparator]

Nylander would have been the 1RW for about 2/3 of that season playing with Matthews and Hyman, which drew the toughest competition during away games and Babcock would have tried to get that line match ups they could take advantage of at home, very similar to Karlsson

agree that Karlsson at center is an important consideration, what I'm trying to point out is that his 43 goal/78pt campaign was heavily influenced by pucks going in at a considerably higher rate than they are likely to over a larger sample. Karlsson's season is really more like a 30ish goal/60ish point season in terms of performance that was inflated by luck, which is still a hell of a season for an expansion draftee

I think the reason for Karlsson's really high shooting percentage is that he spent an exorbitant amount of time practicing his shot last summer. If I remember correctly, he took something like 1000 shots a day and some other Swede (whose name I forget now) said he only takes about half of that during his practices. He probably improved his shot so much that he took the entire league by surprise this year. So luck sure, but also a vast improvement in his shot in 1 year that was probably completely overlooked by everyone else in the league.

 

[blueberrie]

My imagination is just as preposterous as this thread. Disregarding leaf and knight fans, this should be a ainec thread. Nylander will never have as good of a season as karlsson just had.

Not quite. It's who you would take going forward, not who had the better season/better now. Karlsson might not ever have another season as good as he just did.

Nylander probably won't ever hit 40+ goals but there is no basis for saying 78 points is out of his range. Nylander is 3 years younger and unless Karlsson has literally the best shot the game has ever seen he isn't going to be regularly converting on 23% of his shots.

 

[DRW204]

I think the reason for Karlsson's really high shooting percentage is that he spent an exorbitant amount of time practicing his shot last summer. If I remember correctly, he took something like 1000 shots a day and some other Swede (whose name I forget now) said he only takes about half of that during his practices. He probably improved his shot so much that he took the entire league by surprise this year. So luck sure, but also a vast improvement in his shot in 1 year that was probably completely overlooked by everyone else in the league.

I also saw 80% of his goals are in front of his net/slot, similar distribution to players like Lee and Matthews

there's a pretty good case to be made that Nylander's rookie season was as good as the season that Karlsson just had, luck being the big differentiating factor.

Karlsson 17/18
goals - 43
assists - 35
CF% - 53.8%
FF% - 53.9%
CF%.rel - 3.7
FF%.rel - 3.9
shots - 184
SH% - 23.4% (highest of any player with 80 games played in the last 20 years)
OIsh% - 11.7%

Nylander 16/17
goals - 22
assists - 39
CF% - 53.2%
FF% - 53.0%
CF%.rel - 3.6
FF%.rel - 4.3
shots - 205
SH% - 10.7%
OIsh% - 6.9%

with Karlsson's shooting and OIsh%, Nylander would have had 48 goals and 103 pts. And that's not to say that Nylander is a 48 goal/103 point player, but it should underline how lucky Karlsson was this year

it would be interesting to see Karlsson's HDCF as a % vs SOGS or Corsi with players who have similar goal heatmaps to him.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think the reason for Karlsson's really high shooting percentage is that he spent an exorbitant amount of time practicing his shot last summer. If I remember correctly, he took something like 1000 shots a day and some other Swede (whose name I forget now) said he only takes about half of that during his practices. He probably improved his shot so much that he took the entire league by surprise this year. So luck sure, but also a vast improvement in his shot in 1 year that was probably completely overlooked by everyone else in the league.

his shooting percentage is the #1 of 3134 player-seasons since the 93-94 season in shooting % for guys with 80+ gp, I don't think that's something you can practice your way to - he's the zero percentile mark of the bell curve. Laine's best season is 18.3%. Kovalchuck's was 18.4%, Ovechkin's was 14.6%, and I don't think anyone would argue that Karlsson is in that tier as a shooter

We definitely underestimate the role that luck plays, even for guys at this level. And again, don't get me wrong, this guy went from being a career 3rd liner to a definite top 6 and likely top line center in one year which is really impressive, I just don't see him repeating at near the level he did unless he takes another significant step forward in play because betting that his luck will continue at the same rate is not wise

If Karlsson levels out as Nazem Kadri that's still a hell of a get for Vegas

 

[I am Canadian]

I think Karlsson is the clear guy here - but it wouldn't shock me if Karlsson regressed and Nylander ended up the better player in a few years.

 

[EP40 AKA Lil Wayne]

I think William is the clear guy here - but it wouldn't shock me if William regressed and William ended up the better player in a few years.

 

[EP40 AKA Lil Wayne]

William AINEC

 

[Randy Randerson]

I also saw 80% of his goals are in front of his net/slot, similar distribution to players like Lee and Matthews
it would be interesting to see Karlsson's HDCF as a % vs SOGS or Corsi with players who have similar goal heatmaps to him.

I honestly didn't watch many Vegas games, but if you're right about the shot distribution being similar to Lee and Matthews:
- Lee has generated between 183 and 208 shots per year for each of his last 4, shooting %'s between 8.2 and 19.2, goal totals between 15 and 40 that completely correlate to shooting percentage (which makes sense, shooting from an area that you have no time to think and there's lots of stuff to hit - when you're lucky it finds mesh, when you're not it finds goalie/shin pad/the glass/etc)
- Matthews has generated between 187 (in 62 games) and 279 shots in his first two seasons, shooting %'s of 14.3 and 18.2, goal totals of 40 and 34
- Karlsson generated 184 shots this year (82 games, his previous best was 108), shooting % of 23.4 and 44 goals - looks more in line with the Lee level player than the Matthews level player at face value, that's where I'd place my bet. Karlsson would have to up his shot volume a lot to sustain 40ish goal production

I looked a little at what you're talking about for HDCF as a product of total CF for this year:
- Karlsson - 17.4% of his total CF was HDCF
- Matthews was 21.9%
- Lee was also 21.9%