Will the Maple Leafs even have interest in Steven Stamkos?

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The Thin White Duke

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That's not an apt analogy, because the issue isn't money, but a limit on what you can spend.

Of our imaginary future Stanley Cup winning team, there's probably 1 guy on the main roster and 2 in the entire organization who look like real cornerstone pieces, and 1 more major piece likely to be put in place at this June's draft. Of the 3 pieces we actually own, 2 of them are on ELCs until 2019...

...and you're worried about adding a player, whose salary will basically be the same as Bozak plus Lupul. Talk about penny wise and pound foolish.

It's more like you need a car to commute to work every day, and you're looking at buying a convertible Ferarri. It's overkill for the 6 months you can actually drive it, and you'll still need to buy another car for the other 6.
 

Stephen

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Do any of his 48 playoff games define him then? Because none of them have been very good so far. Again, Johnson's role involved shutting down the opponent's top lines, and he STILL significantly outscores Stamkos while facing much harder competition. Stamkos's ONLY job was to score and he didn't do it better than Killorn for crying out loud. Expecting someone to turn into something they haven't been in any of their 48 playoff games is a little silly, giving them a contract based on the assumption that they turn into something else is how you get fired.

Stamkos has a 0.73 PPG average in his fairly young career in three post season appearances. There's nothing particularly awful with what he's done there other than the fact that Johnson and Kucherov outshone him in this last run.

His game is based on not having the puck. I don't mean to make him sound like a bad player, because he's outstanding at what he does, but what he does isn't very important to a successful team in this NHL climate. He doesn't carry the puck because that limits the usefulness of his one-timer. It's a great one-timer, but he needs to be able to disappear in the offensive zone to use it. There is simply no way Stamkos can become an above-average two-way center without sacrificing the foundation of his offensive game.

Well, good thing we have two highly skilled and creative forwards in Nylander and Marner who love to carry the puck, and Nazem Kadri who is being rebuilt as a puck ragging possession beast. The entire hockey world has seen what the recipe with Stamkos and St. Louis looks like. Why not try to re-create this instead of worrying that he isn't David Backes?

He can be the Kane to someone's Towes I guess (if he had Kane's playoff resume anyway), but if we're paying the offense-only player 11 mil, how much is our Towes equivalent going to be making? Where do we find a Keith-calibre D for 5.5 per year? Chicago couldn't afford both Towes and Kane unless Hossa and Keith were on illegal contracts.

Kane and Toews each make $10.5 million, so if you pay Stamkos $11 million, I guess you can pay the Toews $9.5 million one day, hypothetically if you want to go with those same totals. In any case the only way we get a Toews is to draft one and develop one internally, so that guy is going to be very cost controlled for a few years.

i.e. if we draft Auston Matthews, he's going to be on ELCs until 2019 at the earliest, and probably get bridged after that. Most of our bad cap will be long gone, and Phaneuf will have 2 years left on his deal by that point. How the hell is this even a concern?

My main point is that Stamkos, while a good player, is a luxury, not a necessity to building a contender. I don't think it's wise to make a luxury complimentary player your far and away highest paid player in a cap world. Even if we assume that he's a 40/80+ player for the duration of his contract (pretty unlikely), that's not good bang for your buck at 11 mil per year if your goal is to win playoff series. If you just want to see some pretty goals, then yeah it's a great idea.

The Leafs are in a building phase where they need talent everywhere, however they can get it. They are in 29th place, so they ought not to be in a position to say no to talent because you think the only way to win a cup is to replicate the LA Kings.
 

Gabriel426

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You know this is a Leafs nation board when someone states Kesler is a better player than Stamkos. You can't compare someone career season to the other player's worst season and states your point. Gretzky had a few pretty crappy seasons toward the end of his career, would it be fair if I state Phil's 37 Goals season is better than Gretzky final yrs.

I think any time you compare a player career season to another player worst season, the player with the career season should win out.

Yes, Stamkos seems to struggle in playoffs, only producing 0.73 pts game average. And he is having another down yr which he will be close to 40 goals....
But lets look at all the forwards who are available and pretty much Stamkos level.

Toews-No
Kane-No
Kopitar-No
Sid-No
Malkin-No
JT-No
Seguin-No
Benn-No
Ovie-No
McDavid-No
Hall-No
Tarasenko-No
Giroux-No

Kessel-Yes

Maybe the Leafs should try to get Phil back and see if the Pens would take some salary retention. Phil is almost a pt a game in the playoffs. His contract at most will be 8mil for the Leafs which is smaller than Stamkos. Once he reunite with Bozak, he might hits 35 goals again. On top of that, it is sort of his homecoming too. Works in so many levels.

The point is the Leafs is at a stage of gathering as many talents as they need now without giving any assets away. Stamkos fits that description. It is like how Dubas said about drafting, Leafs need to draft talent above anything else, can't target certain type of players bc the Leafs needs talents.
Kind of like what Noodles was saying in Leafs lunch the other day about Reimer and how much would he cost Leafs or other teams. They stated that maybe Reimer is the 20th best Goalie in the League, but might get paid like the 10th best bc the next available Goalie could be the 40th best.
 

Gabriel426

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all those guys are x 8 years.

9.25 x 8 = 74 million
74 ÷ 7 = 10.57 million /year

i think thats the ballpark stamkos will be in.

Lou can give this deal to Stamkos.
14.5/1 yr on July 1st.
Then the 1st day of training Camp, sign extension with Stamkos to be 10/7or 8 yrs.

Thus the cap hit will be 10 mil after first year.
 

Stephen

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It's more like you need a car to commute to work every day, and you're looking at buying a convertible Ferarri. It's overkill for the 6 months you can actually drive it, and you'll still need to buy another car for the other 6.

Using this horrible analogy, a championship team requires 20 cars to deal with different road and weather conditions. So yes, buy the Ferarri because you can get it cheap now but keep shopping for the Ford F150 and keep driving your lousy SUV, etc.
 

Gabriel426

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It's more like you need a car to commute to work every day, and you're looking at buying a convertible Ferarri. It's overkill for the 6 months you can actually drive it, and you'll still need to buy another car for the other 6.

Only if you live in a place where it snows 6 months a yr.
 

080

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Well, good thing we have two highly skilled and creative forwards in Nylander and Marner who love to carry the puck, and Nazem Kadri who is being rebuilt as a puck ragging possession beast. The entire hockey world has seen what the recipe with Stamkos and St. Louis looks like. Why not try to re-create this instead of worrying that he isn't David Backes?

The Leafs are in a building phase where they need talent everywhere, however they can get it. They are in 29th place, so they ought not to be in a position to say no to talent because you think the only way to win a cup is to replicate the LA Kings.

This.

Surely one of Nylander or Marner can be Stamkos' St. Louis -- and we all know how that went.

There is no right way to win a Cup. You put the right pieces and the right talent in place when you can. What if we'd drafted Stamkos and we were in this situation? Would any of us being considering letting him walk for nothing?

Vancouver signed Hamhuis to a huge contract (back then) before losing in the Cup Final -- was that a mistake? Boston signed Chara to what was a huge contract at the time, when the team wasn't that good, and he's been a stalwart for a decade for them. Chicago signed Hossa to a very long (though not terribly expensive) contract and he's been arguably their best two-way player (behind Toews). I'm sure there are other examples but off the top of my head that's all I can think of.

Stamkos is an asset. If we still can't win or things are still dire, you simply trade him.
 

coachbob

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Let's say Stamkos has told Yzerman he is going to test the market.
Let's say Yzerman wants to move him at the deadline.
Let's say Stamkos with his NTC gives Yzerman 2 or3 teams which he would accept.
Let's say Toronto is one of those teams.
What does Toronto offer at most, knowing Tampa is looking at a playoff run?
Does Yzerman take a Bozak or Kadri thrown in with a Kapanen and Polak type deal?
 

Confucius

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Let's say Stamkos has told Yzerman he is going to test the market.
Let's say Yzerman wants to move him at the deadline.
Let's say Stamkos with his NTC gives Yzerman 2 or3 teams which he would accept.
Let's say Toronto is one of those teams.
What does Toronto offer at most, knowing Tampa is looking at a playoff run?
Does Yzerman take a Bozak or Kadri thrown in with a Kapanen and Polak type deal?

I'd just wait for his UFA to kick in. We don't need a rental for this year.
 

HoweHullOrr

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Let's say Stamkos has told Yzerman he is going to test the market.
Let's say Yzerman wants to move him at the deadline.
Let's say Stamkos with his NTC gives Yzerman 2 or3 teams which he would accept.
Let's say Toronto is one of those teams.
What does Toronto offer at most, knowing Tampa is looking at a playoff run?
Does Yzerman take a Bozak or Kadri thrown in with a Kapanen and Polak type deal?

I'd just wait for his UFA to kick in. We don't need a rental for this year.

What if he never hits UFA? Let's say a team is given permission to speak to Stamkos and his agent. This team ultimately sign him for the balance of his term (this season) and identify a (next) contract that is good for Stamkos that Stamkos would and does sign? Maybe they offer SS $12 m a year starting next year. Can't happen? Never? IDK.
 

TLeafsFan

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While our young stars are developing, Babcock is absolutely gonna want someone he knows for certain can score goals in the NHL and if you look at the body of work of this 25 year old along with his work ethic, you can only count on one hand in the NHL today, how many players can challenge him in that department.

He may have even unofficially given a shout out to Stamkos last night.

Jonas Siegel ‏@jonasTSN1050 10h10 hours ago
Mike Babcock on the lack of scoring among forwards: "What are you expecting?...How many of these guys really score?"
 
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Confucius

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What if he never hits UFA because the team that is given permission to speak to Stamkos and his agent that eventually sign him for the balance of his term (this season) identify a (next) contract that is good for Stamkos that Stamkos would and does sign? Maybe they offer SS $12 m a year starting next year. Can't happen? IDK.
If some team wants him bad enough to offer him 12, I doubt they would pull the offer after July 1 just because he may want to see if the Leafs are interested. It would be surprising if the team said too bad we don't want you now. Especially if they already gave up an asset to get him for the remainder of the year.

We may offer somebody we had no use for if Stamkos did sign here. Bozak, I guess but certainly I wouldn't be giving up prospects or draft picks, or multiple players.
 

080

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What if we drafted Kessel? Keep him through the rebuild?

I don't think it's really comparable.

Kessel is 4 years older and has 50 fewer goals in 200 more NHL games. He's also notoriously lazy and out of shape. Pittsburgh is talking about trading him, even though they're only paying him 6.75 million.

By the time Stamkos and Kessel are the same age, we could potentially be a very competitive team.
 

HoweHullOrr

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I am really hoping he gets to the UFA market.

7 years x 9.25 million = $64.75M

Comparables:

Kopitar - $10M
Ovechkin - $9.54M
Malkin - $9.5M
Perry - $8.63M
Giroux - $8.28M

all those guys are x 8 years.

9.25 x 8 = 74 million
74 ÷ 7 = 10.57 million /year

i think thats the ballpark stamkos will be in.

Many of those deals were signed a few years ago. Kopitar is most recent and his deal is $80 million over 8 years. Divide that $80 million by 7 years and see what you get. Stamkos has an agent.
 

studebaker17

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Jan 24, 2010
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Many of those deals were signed a few years ago. Kopitar is most recent and his deal is $80 million over 8 years. Divide that $80 million by 7 years and see what you get. Stamkos has an agent.

It doesn't work that way. The idea of and why players sign with existing teams is because they can get that 8th yr at a huge salary amount rather than gambling . There's a thresh hold of both cap hit and salary that it isn't worth crossing and trying to match another teams 8yr offer but in a 7yr term would cross that.
 

coachbob

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If some team wants him bad enough to offer him 12, I doubt they would pull the offer after July 1 just because he may want to see if the Leafs are interested. It would be surprising if the team said too bad we don't want you now. Especially if they already gave up an asset to get him for the remainder of the year.

We may offer somebody we had no use for if Stamkos did sign here. Bozak, I guess but certainly I wouldn't be giving up prospects or draft picks, or multiple players.

Bozak is on a decent contract for a couple more years which could fit tampa and adding Polak to the deal is no biggie l as he would get us probably only a mid to late 2nd. I wouldn't like the idea of adding a prospect, but that may be what it would take to beat out any other offers. If Stamkos were to give Yzerman a list of teams, I would expect he would be willing to sign long term with those teams.
So if the Leafs have to give up a prospect not named Nylander or Marner, that may be the price they have to pay.
Getting rid of Bozak or Kadri would be a necessity if we were to plug Stamkos in at the centre position. Assuming Nylander can handle 2nd or 3rd line centre duties only leaves room for one of Bozak or Kadri. There is also the chance that we land Matthews in the draft which would crowd the C position further.
 

TLeafsFan

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It doesn't work that way. The idea of and why players sign with existing teams is because they can get that 8th yr at a huge salary amount rather than gambling . There's a thresh hold of both cap hit and salary that it isn't worth crossing and trying to match another teams 8yr offer but in a 7yr term would cross that.

Agreed. An existing team has the "advantage" of an extra year, if the player wants to remain loyal.

but if you're earning north of 70 million + pretty much guaranteed from your next contract, that extra 10 million or so (US) for an extra year to stay with the team that signed you to your previous contract is probably the least of your concerns.

In Toronto, Stamkos would absolutely more than make up that difference quickly through possibly a signing bonus that doesn't affect cap, combined with the insane amounts of endorsements he'd no doubt receive here.
 

supermann_98

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Let's say Stamkos has told Yzerman he is going to test the market.
Let's say Yzerman wants to move him at the deadline.
Let's say Stamkos with his NTC gives Yzerman 2 or3 teams which he would accept.
Let's say Toronto is one of those teams.
What does Toronto offer at most, knowing Tampa is looking at a playoff run?
Does Yzerman take a Bozak or Kadri thrown in with a Kapanen and Polak type deal?

Bozak and Lupul
 

studebaker17

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Jan 24, 2010
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Agreed. An existing team has the "advantage" of an extra year, if the player wants to remain loyal.

but if you're earning north of 70 million + pretty much guaranteed from your next contract, that extra 10 million or so (US) for an extra year to stay with the team that signed you to your previous contract is probably the least of your concerns.

In Toronto, Stamkos would absolutely more than make up that difference quickly through possibly a signing bonus that doesn't affect cap, combined with the insane amounts of endorsements he'd no doubt receive here.

signing bonus's are factored against the cap
 

HamiltonNHL

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The downside for Stamkos is he comes here, his production is off, the Leafs don't improve and the Toronto media hounds him to death. Would be like Chinese water torture for years.
 

TLeafsFan

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The downside for Stamkos is he comes here, his production is off, the Leafs don't improve and the Toronto media hounds him to death. Would be like Chinese water torture for years.

Not gonna happen.

Davey Keon is about to lift the Ballard curse for good on Saturday.

Praise be to Shanahan.
 

Jerkini

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I fell asleep midway through the first period of last's night game. Woke up to see a 1-0 OT loss. Felt like this team needed a Stamkos more than ever in that moment.

There is no one exciting to watch anymore. No one with game breaking ability. They're playing a structured game and they are doing things the right way, but they desperately need a big injection of Stamkos-like talent.

And then I look at what Kopitar received in LA. No doubt in my mind this guy will be pushing $11-12m/year on the market considering his age and production. And i'm okay with that.

Just get it done, money be damned. We would be so lucky if we don't have enough money to pay our prospects down the road.
 

Stephen

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What if he never hits UFA? Let's say a team is given permission to speak to Stamkos and his agent. This team ultimately sign him for the balance of his term (this season) and identify a (next) contract that is good for Stamkos that Stamkos would and does sign? Maybe they offer SS $12 m a year starting next year. Can't happen? Never? IDK.

If that was the case, I'd just tell him what the July offer will be... tell him to enjoy his final cup run with Tampa, and see you in the summer...
 
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