Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[The Hanging Jowl]

He's just miscalculating the amount of seasons.

8 seasons = 656 games right? There were no shutdowns, lockouts I know of 2005-2014. Here are the games played by Ovechkin in these seasons according to NHL.com:

81
82
82
79
72
79
78
48

The math is hard to get wrong so either I'm forgetting a work stoppage, I'm completely clueless on something, the NHL has bad data or I'm right. Lemme know.

Edit: I see now I said 137 games missed for some reason. Sorry, was just waking up. Doesn't change my point though. Auston steps on the ice in October and he's missed less games than Ovi in his first 8 seasons.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I purposely chose 8 seasons for a reason. Matthews has missed 55 games in his 1st 7 seasons (not exactly what you would call injury prone). Ovechkin missed 137 games in his first 8 seasons. Matthews needs to step on the ice once this October to miss less games than Ovi in their first 8 years in the league and Ovechkin is universally acknowledged as one of the most durable players in the league. Weird huh?

Edit: This ironically makes what Ovechkin has achieved even more impressive.

So you’re counting work stoppages as absence then. If Ovi hadn’t lost all that time due to lockouts and COVID league wide shut down, he’d already be past Gretzky and aiming for 1000 career goals.

Nothing guarantees Matthews won’t have to go through a lockout eventually. Seems to be happening every 10-15 years in the NHL since Bettman took over.

The original point was related to games missed due to injury. Ovechkin simply never got seriously hurt at any point of his career. That part is hard for anyone to replicate.

 

[AvroArrow]

Depends on his commitment to conditioning/nutrition. If he can keep his body healthy and scoring stays as high as it is now, there's a decent chance. I'll go ahead and say no, he has had wrist injuries and players very rarely age like Ovechkin, just depends entirely on his health. Plus Ovechkin is still playing, he could hit 900 before he retires.

 

[Warden of the North]

Unlikely.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

81+82+82+79+72+79+78+48=601
82*7+48=622

He has missed 21 games.

Ugh, forgot there was a lockout 2013-2014. Thanks.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Believe AM already has a couple seasons where he matched or exceeded Ovechkins peak.

Ha! That's hilarious.

Pens fans say the darndest things.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

So you’re counting work stoppages as absence then. If Ovi hadn’t lost all that time due to lockouts and COVID league wide shut down, he’d already be past Gretzky and aiming for 1000 career goals.

Nothing guarantees Matthews won’t have to go through a lockout eventually. Seems to be happening every 10-15 years in the NHL since Bettman took over.

The original point was related to games missed due to injury. Ovechkin simply never got seriously hurt at any point of his career. That part is hard for anyone to replicate.

Yes, I'm an idiot. Sorry.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Matthews could get to 700 goals. That's an incredible feat.

Ovechkin is a tier above. There are maybe three players ever (Gretz, Mario, and Bossy; if McDavid continues scoring goals like last season, make it four) who you could reasonably argue are equal or better to Ovi when it comes to goal scoring. Matthews is not one of them.

There is no argument, what-so-ever, for Mike Bossy over Ovechkin as a goal scorer.

In fact there really isn't an argument for anyone.

Lemieux led the NHL in goals 3 times in 17 seasons. Ovie did it 9 times in the same number of seasons. Bossy did it twice. Gretzky 5 times.

Even on a per game basis, Ovie led the NHL 9 times. Lemieux did it 6 times. Gretzky 3, and Bossy 1.

I have no idea why you think McDavid is remotely close to this discussion.

Here's a bunch of data:

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 7/31/23	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	822	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	2	5	11	1	22	7	18	3	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	924	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	2	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 7/31/2023	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG (first 15 seasons)	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG (first 15 seasons)	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
Adjusted GPG (first 15 seasons)***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
First 15 seasons	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

For "on-pace" to become the goal record, you do have to play the games. So, I'll say no.

 

[North Cole]

Very doubtful. Ovechkin is where he is because of unprecedented scoring as he aged. Matthews compares well now, but until he actually compares well in his 30s we won't know. I'd err on the side saying no, given how unlikely what OV has done has been

 

[cneely]

Huh? In what season has Matthews exceeded Ovechkin's peak? Let alone a couple seasons. Peak Ovechkin is closer to peak McDavid than Matthews.

This.

At AM's age, Ovi had 4 seasons at 106 points or more (Matthews best so far) and 4 - 50 goal seasons.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Yes, I'm an idiot. Sorry.

It’s OK, I also wish the 2012-13 lockout never happened!

If it never happened, Ovechkin would be in sole possession of the record for the most 50 goal seasons. Same with the 2020 season where he finished at 48 with 13 games in hand (could’ve hit 60 with a hot streak).

 

[Debrincat93]

Ovi never suffered a lockout and he and Matthews were both equally affected by the Covid shutdowns.



All true. Ovechkin is a phenomenon and it would be close to impossible for Matthews (or anyone else) to replicate his late career production.

wasnt 2012-13 a lockout? 48 games versus 80-82, difference for him of 20-30 goals.

i know both were affected by the covid lockdowns. but i was more so referring to ovechkin's totals if both didnt happen. he would probably have 30-40 more goals, health aside. at 84-850, good chance he could have broken the record this year.

btw, he was affected by the 2004 lockout because he was drafted in 2004 and didnt get a chance to play in 04-05. So, again, add in that missed year and give him a modest 25 goals at 18 years old.. he'd be even closer to 900. Going to be hard for AM34 to hit 800 goals, nonetheless 900.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Ovi never suffered a lockout and he and Matthews were both equally affected by the Covid shutdowns.



All true. Ovechkin is a phenomenon and it would be close to impossible for Matthews (or anyone else) to replicate his late career production.

OV missed his first year due to lockout, and played a 48 game season due to lockout.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Sure he has a shot.

It'd probably be 1/10000 chance but if anyone has a chance right now it'd be him.

Will have to stay on the ice more and score goals 50+ more.

 

[tuckerintensity]

Hard no. If he wants to prove me wrong, that will be fun, but AO had 40 more goals at this point in his career, his longevity is insane, and so is the level of production that he's kept up during that. What AO has done on the other side of 30 isn't normal and I have to expect that Matthews will see more of a normal pattern. Even if he doesn't follow a more normal pattern, he's starting from behind.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

If Ovy manages to beat Gretzkys record be become #1 all time in goals, Matthews doesn't stand a chance. I don't think anyone comes close for at least 20 years.

 

[blundluntman]

I'm 99% certain there's no chance in hell. He's a great goalscorer, probably the 2nd or 3rd best post-2005 lockout, but Ovi is a completely different animal.

 

[wetcoast]

Is this a serious thread ?

It's summer, can't you tell.

Next will be 28 of the 32 fanbases making the claim for their team being the 24 SC winner then the first week will happen in October and most serious fans will realize 5 actual contenders with maybe 5 more possibilities.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

He won't simply because of the discrepancy in ice time. It's too much lost opportunity. No one knows how long he will keep scoring well but even if his pace doesn't drop much, his ice time is way behind. I think the league is also moving like some others towards load management. Barring the unforeseen, I can see him finishing top 5 to 10.

 

[Pez68]

Nope. I'd be shocked if he comes within 150 goals, when all is said and done. Consistency and durability are a huge part of this.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Comparing the career pace of a 26 year old to the career pace of a 38 year old is a big reach.
It’s a pretty meaningless comparison and assumes Matthews keeps up his pace until he hits age 38. It just ain’t happening.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

In this thread are a bunch of people failing to realize that the most impressive thing about OV’s goal scoring BY FAR is actually what he’s been able to do since he turned 30.

The target for Matthews should be 600+. He’s an outstanding player having an outstanding career. Expecting him to do what Ovechkin has done is bananas.

 

[Face Of Bear]

I'd say its very likely he will

 

[Satoru Gojo]

I would bet he doesn't