Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[MXD]

Well, if scoring continues to go up, and Matthews isn't missing 1 and a half season due to a lockout, and continues to be healthy (like Ovechkin was) they could be closer than everyone expects right now. The numbers will come with a caveat, but they could be really close.

The difference will probably amount to the fact that Ovechkin could win the Richard in a bad year, something I don't see Matthews doing at all, due to simply not being as a good a player, and because he's also more balanced than Ovie.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I say yes. But he would need some luck

Didn't someone on here post that ages aligned Matthews is only 7 back?

He's not even 7 he's 1 or 2.

 

[Despote]

In terms of games played, they're basically even though, so its not like Ovi was way outscoring Matthews through his first 481 games. 299 to 305 goals.

I don't think they're far apart strictly in goalscoring ability through age 25. Ovechkin played in a lower scoring era but did have the benefit of more favourable PP usage. That being said Matthews struggles with playing full seasons and it's just impossible to predict that he'll be able to match Ovechkin's unnatural aging curve.

 

[PensandCaps]

Nope. He’s probably closer than people will admit in terms of goal scoring ability, but career wise he has no shot. He’s not near durable enough compared to ovechkin.

Also you should probably be comparing Ovechkin’s gpg at the same age as Matthews instead of career.

It's basically the same. Matthews might actually be higher there if you don't count his age 19 season.

age 20-25, Matthews has 259 goals in 399 games.

For Ovi at 20-25 years old, he had 301 goals in 475 games.

Matthews is on his level. Health is the problem with him. Ovi has never gotten seriously hurt.

 

[psycat]

He's not even 7 he's 1 or 2.

Problem is Ovi is pretty much one of a kind in terms of durability and concistency as a goalscorer I feel like Matthews would have to be like 100 ahead for me to bet on it being a huge possbility. Nevermind any decline, which is usual for goalscorers, or freak accidents etc.

I mean maybe todays players will have longer average careers due to advancements in medicin, or heck even bionics, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[PensandCaps]

I don't think they're far apart strictly in goalscoring ability through age 25. Ovechkin played in a lower scoring era but did have the benefit of more favourable PP usage. That being said Matthews struggles with playing full seasons and it's just impossible to predict that he'll be able to match Ovechkin's unnatural aging curve.

Matthew's first 3-4 years, were not some offensive driven league.

Ovechkin played in an easier scoring league if anything lol. 05-06 and 06-07 was nutty.

16-17 and 17-18 was not the league we see today in terms of offense.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Problem is Ovi is pretty much one of a kind in terms of durability and concistency as a goalscorer I feel like Matthews would have to be like 100 ahead for me to bet on it being a huge possbility. Nevermind any decline, which is usual for goalscorers, or freak accidents etc.

I mean maybe todays players will have longer average careers due to advancements in medicin, or heck even bionics, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'm still not betting on Ovechkin doing it until he breaks the record because all it takes is one bad injury and It's done, and he's 38.

But if we are playing this game Matthews is right there where Ovechkin was at 25.

 

[EverTheCynic]

Matthews is injured every year. No.

 

[Henry Miller]

Probably not but something always seems impossible until it’s not. There was a time when Andy Reid couldn’t win a Super Bowl. You never know what can happen. Maybe a player of the Bunting ilk hits his stride and starts potting 80 a year for the next 10 years..boom..he’s right there with Gretzky and OV

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Matthew's first 3-4 years, were not some offensive driven league.

Ovechkin played in an easier scoring league if anything lol. 05-06 and 06-07 was nutty.

16-17 and 17-18 was not the league we see today in terms of offense.

It's basically the same. Matthews might actually be higher there if you don't count his age 19 season.

age 20-25, Matthews has 259 goals in 399 games.

For Ovi at 20-25 years old, he had 301 goals in 475 games.

Matthews is on his level. Health is the problem with him. Ovi has never gotten seriously hurt.

Matthews has been in higher scoring league by far.

League GPG in 22/23 and 21/22 was higher than 05/06.
06/07 was "nutty" but GPG was higher in 17/18-19/20, 21/22 and 22/23 (and basically the same in 20/21).

The season with the lowest GPG in Matthews career was 16/17. OV has played in 5 seasons with a lower GPG (11/12-15/16).

OV, in a lower scoring era, had 4 50 goal seasons after his first 7 seasons. Matthews has 1. Scoring less goals in a higher scoring league doesn't put you on the same level, it makes you worse.

You sit here and promise me he plays the amount of games that Ovechkin has played in his career, I would say maybe.

Believe AM already has a couple seasons where he matched or exceeded Ovechkins peak. Issue is like others have said that Matthews simply isn’t as durable as Ovechkin. Will he be able to score 50 in his 30’s. Probably not.

Lol when did Matthews match or exceed OV's peak? Couple of seasons?

 

[Legion34]

Nope. He’s probably closer than people will admit in terms of goal scoring ability, but career wise he has no shot. He’s not near durable enough compared to ovechkin.

Also you should probably be comparing Ovechkin’s gpg at the same age as Matthews instead of career.

It’s almost identical.
At the exact same age

Matthews games: 481. Goals. 299
Ovechkin games. 475. Goals. 301

Matthews is top 10 all time in goals at 25 or under
Will be top 10 fastest to reach 300.

People don’t realize what a completely unique talent he is.
Top line defensively solid leads the league in goals in his first 7 years

I think he has zero chance of having the later career of ovy

But he has been ovy like in his first 500 games

 

[WarriorofTime]

Well, if scoring continues to go up, and Matthews isn't missing 1 and a half season due to a lockout, and continues to be healthy (like Ovechkin was) they could be closer than everyone expects right now. The numbers will come with a caveat, but they could be really close.

The difference will probably amount to the fact that Ovechkin could win the Richard in a bad year, something I don't see Matthews doing at all, due to simply not being as a good a player, and because he's also more balanced than Ovie.

Ovechkin scored 521 goals in 872 games (0.597 GPG, 48.99 Goals per 82) from ages 26-37, it also included 7 Rockets in 8 seasons from ages 27-34. Only 38 players in their entire NHL career have scored 521 goals in any amount of time.

Even with high scoring and no Lockouts, that's going to be really hard to replicate. Look at probably the 2nd best Goal Scorer from Ovechkin's era, another guy that was getting called Ovechkin's equal early in the near the peak of his career. Stamkos got hurt and has been at 203 goals in 434 games (0.468 GPG, 38.35 Goals per 82) ages 26-32, which is more likely than not to dip further from 33-37.

Of course, Ovechkin's not even done yet. Others you can see, Teemu Selanne, who played forever and was notable for scoring into old ages, from 26-43 (missed 04-05 due to Lockout), ironically enough, had 521 goals in 1,192 games (0.437 GPG, 35.84 Goals per 82). Jarome Iginla from 26-39 (also missed 04-05) had 416 goals in 1,009 games (0.412 GPG, 33.81 Goals per 82)/ Joe Sakic from 26-39 (also missed 04-05) had 391 goals in 870 games (0.449 GPG, 36.85 Goals per 82)

 

[Legion34]

Matthews has been in higher scoring league by far.

League GPG in 22/23 and 21/22 was higher than 05/06.
06/07 was "nutty" but GPG was higher in 17/18-19/20, 21/22 and 22/23 (and basically the same in 20/21).

The season with the lowest GPG in Matthews career was 16/17. OV has played in 5 seasons with a lower GPG (11/12-15/16).

OV, in a lower scoring era, had 4 50 goal seasons after his first 7 seasons. Matthews has 1. Scoring less goals in a higher scoring league doesn't put you on the same level, it makes you worse.



Lol when did Matthews match or exceed OV's peak? Couple of seasons?

This isn’t a complete analysis. You cant say “goal scoring is up” therefore it was easier to get higjer goal totals.

It’s very likely that 4th line goons and d that can’t skate got phased out and the increase in scoring overall was driven by the bottom rather than the top.

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Goals

www.hockey-reference.com

The goal leaders haven’t really changed for the majority of the time. Last year was crazy and Matthews was hurt the whole time

Scoring going up doesn’t just uniformly add 5 goals to every player

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Ovi's more machine than man. If Matthews can age like him, sure, why not. But no one ages like Ovechkin has. I love Matthews but the chances of him outscoring Ovechkin over their careers are miniscule.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

No.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Seems like almost everyone reached the consensus, but I’d like to add one more thing.

Matthews doesn’t just have injury history, his injuries are hand/wrist related. These sorts of injuries don’t always heal 100%, and they’re extremely problematic for a sniper like Matthews who relies on is his wrist shot a lot to score.

 

[leafsfan5]

Seems like almost everyone reached the consensus, but I’d like to add one more thing.

Matthews doesn’t just have injury history, his injuries are hand/wrist related. These sorts of injuries don’t always heal 100%, and they’re extremely problematic for a sniper like Matthews who relies on is his wrist shot a lot to score.

His wrist injuries are the one reason I'm warming up to the idea of signing him for only 4 years and not 8

AM34's shot was off for the entirety of last season and has had long spells in the past where it has been like this. Despite this he's still a high end goal scorer and can pot 40, but the shot is what makes him special and allows him to join the greats of the goalscoring.

 

[Musampa]

I’m not sure he will score more than Mario let alone Ovechkin

 

[McVespa99]

No way; no chance; no how.

There is not even this much of a chance.

 

[Randyne]

Glowing star Matthews entered the league in 2016-17 season and scored 299 goals since then.
Fading old star Ovechkin since 2016-17 season scored 297 goals.
2 goals difference between young and old in 7 seasons.

 

[rfournier103]

Points? Maybe.

Goals? Probably not.

 

[LT]

Matthews could get to 700 goals. That's an incredible feat.

Ovechkin is a tier above. There are maybe three players ever (Gretz, Mario, and Bossy; if McDavid continues scoring goals like last season, make it four) who you could reasonably argue are equal or better to Ovi when it comes to goal scoring. Matthews is not one of them.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It’s almost identical.
At the exact same age

Matthews games: 481. Goals. 299
Ovechkin games. 475. Goals. 301

Matthews is top 10 all time in goals at 25 or under
Will be top 10 fastest to reach 300.

People don’t realize what a completely unique talent he is.
Top line defensively solid leads the league in goals in his first 7 years

I think he has zero chance of having the later career of ovy

But he has been ovy like in his first 500 games

Thing is

2005-06 through 2011-12 (this included the two worst seasons of Ovechkin's career in terms of goal scoring, right before ripping off 7 Rockets in 8 years)... these are Ovechkin's first 7 years

Ovechkin - 339 goals
Kovalchuk - 298 goals
Heatley - 269 goals
Iginla - 266 goals
Staal - 239 goals
Marleau - 234 goals
Nash - 231 goals
Vanek - 230 goals
Hossa - 229 goals
Gaborik - 228 goals

2016-17 through 2022-23.. these are Matthews first 7 years and who knows what's to come

Matthews - 299 goals
Ovechkin (heh)- 297 goals
McDavid - 287 goals
Draisaitl - 285 goals
Pastrnak - 276 goals
MacKinnon - 225 goals
Rantanen - 220 goals
Tavares - 220 goals
Marchand - 219 goals
Point - 218 goals

There is pretty clearer a big separation between Ovechkin and (everyone else) which only gets more extreme the more years of Ovechkin's career that you kick it out than there has been with Matthews

 

[McVespa99]

It’s almost identical.
At the exact same age

Matthews games: 481. Goals. 299
Ovechkin games. 475. Goals. 301

Matthews is top 10 all time in goals at 25 or under
Will be top 10 fastest to reach 300.

People don’t realize what a completely unique talent he is.
Top line defensively solid leads the league in goals in his first 7 years

I think he has zero chance of having the later career of ovy

But he has been ovy like in his first 500 games

He is not that unique. There have been quite a few players that succeeded with a great shot. He has certainly been up there with some of the greats so far

 

[ffh]

Hell nyet.