Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[TGWL]

Ask in 10 years.

 

[Jericho111091]

It's not impossible, but would take some luck. He'd likely have to age as gracefully and with similar durability to OV

 

[Spawn]

Ovechkins ungodly shooting ability is only half of the question. Matthews has certainly shown he can match that (if in a different way).

The challenge is that he’s already shown he can’t match Ovechkins other ungodly ability, which is an otherworldly ability to stay healthy for basically his entire career.

Even 8-10 missed games a season eventually will have Matthews start to fall behind.

 

[Legion34]

I’m not sure he will score more than Mario let alone Ovechkin

He is not that unique. There have been quite a few players that succeeded with a great shot. He has certainly been up there with some of the greats so far

Of course. Getting to 690 goals would be insane.

Matthews is a very unique player

All time

10th fastest to 300
Top 10 in goals by his age
Already has American records

Defensive C who leads the league in blocked shots
Scored the most goals since he entered the league over 7 seasons

How many players have done that?
there are 3 C on the top 10’lists i believe. Gretz Mario. Matthews (stamkos was earlier)

How many players lead the league in goals their first 7 years?

How many hart winning C lead the league in blocked shots

He’s not Mcdavid
But he is clearly unique

 

[WarriorofTime]

The challenge is that he’s already shown he can’t match Ovechkins other ungodly ability, which is an otherworldly ability to stay healthy for basically his entire career.

While durability is an underrated skill, I do think it gets overstated to say Ovechkin has "other ungodly ability" in that it almost feels a bit passive aggressive. Jamie Benn, Brent Burns, Andrew Cogliano, Claude Giroux, Phil Kessel, Anze Kopitar, Joe Pavelski, Corey Perry, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter, Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, Blake Wheeler It's not like Ovechkin's the one and only guy that's managed to stay upright after a long period.

 

[Spawn]

While durability is an underrated skill, I do think it gets overstated to say Ovechkin has "other ungodly ability" in that it almost feels a bit passive aggressive. Jamie Benn, Brent Burns, Andrew Cogliano, Claude Giroux, Phil Kessel, Anze Kopitar, Joe Pavelski, Corey Perry, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter, Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, Blake Wheeler It's not like Ovechkin's the one and only guy that's managed to stay upright after a long period.

He’s the one and only one who has been able to do it without a drop off in his game (with the bizarre exception of Pavelski who seems better now than he was 10 years ago).

I truly don’t mean it to be passive aggressive. I think a lot of Matthews game is overrated, but not his goal scoring ability. I just think something is going to need to change for him to be able to maintain it for as long as Ovechkin was able to.

 

[ponder]

I won’t say it’s impossible, but it’s very, VERY unlikely. Ovie is 2nd all time in goals, and has a legit chance to finish 1st. He has an incredible combo of absolutely elite goal scoring talent and excellent health/longevity.

Matthew would need to turn into an Ironman from now on to have a chance, like a guy who almost never misses games, and even then his chance would be small.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Kind of dumb comparing goals per game for a guy in his prime to a guy who will soon be 38 years old. Matthews scoring per game will likely drop dramatically as he ages just like most players not named Ovechkin.
That’s what makes Ovechkin so unique and why he is challenging Gretzky’s ‘untouchable’ record.

Matthews and Ovechkin aren’t really close or comparable at all.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Even if you think that Matthews is close to Ovechkin in terms of natural goal-scoring ability, there are two reasons he'll likely fall short:

Durability - Matthews has already missed more games (55) in seven seasons than Ovechkin has in eighteen years (52). Any time Matthews goes through a cold streak, people say it's a wrist injury. Neither of these points help Matthews in this comparison.

Aging - Ovechkin has aged extraordinarily well as a goal-scorer. His ability to score 40+ goals (almost) every year in his 30's is so rare, it's unlikely that any player (Matthews or otherwise) will keep up. Since we can't expect Matthews to age as well as Ovechkin, he'd have to be significantly ahead through age 25 in order for it to be likely to pass his career totals. Merely keeping pace with Ovechkin isn't good enough.

I'd give Matthews a 1% chance of matching Ovechkin's career totals. (But if leaguewide scoring keeps rising, that would help).

 

[Video Nasty]

Extremely unlikely, even if Ovechkin suddenly retired tomorrow.

Matthews began his career 525 goals behind Ovechkin. He’s already burned through 7 seasons of his career and still trails by 523. He’s chipped away at the lead by all of 2 goals. Ovechkin actually made the same headway when he outscored him 42-40 this past season.

If Ovechkin only plays 2 more seasons, breaks the record, and leaves with 900 goals, does anyone really see Matthews potting 500 goals past from age 28 onwards?

Depending on how Stamkos and Crosby finish out, most should be satisfied if Matthews ends up becoming just the 9th player to hit 700 goals.

 

[authentic]

No, but he’ll age better than HF thinks

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

His wrist injuries are the one reason I'm warming up to the idea of signing him for only 4 years and not 8

AM34's shot was off for the entirety of last season and has had long spells in the past where it has been like this. Despite this he's still a high end goal scorer and can pot 40, but the shot is what makes him special and allows him to join the greats of the goalscoring.

Agree. While Ovechkin managed to stay injury free, the first physical attribute he lost in the process of aging is the skating speed (followed by stickhandling abilities).

He went through some slumps as he was losing this speed, but progressively modified parts of his game to stay productive. His highlights from his early 20s versus late 30s make it seem like he’s a totally different player. The only constant is his shooting ability, which is as good as it ever was even at 37.

I think Matthews will have to do something similar eventually. If wrist issues continue to be a problem, I think he is smart and talented enough to find other ways to score. I noticed that he has been scoring some great deflection goals in front of the net, that could be a path to production for an older Matthews.

 

[BallardEra]

He's "only" 523 goals behind Ovechkin

 

[Matsun]

Top 15 most goals in a season Ovechkin/Matthews:
Ovechkin 08: 65
Matthews 22: 60
Ovechkin 09: 56
Ovechkin 15: 53
Ovechkin 06: 52
Ovechkin 14: 51
Ovechkin 19: 51
Ovechkin 10: 50
Ovechkin 16: 50
Ovechkin 22: 50
Ovechkin 18: 49
Ovechkin 20: 48
Matthews 20: 47
Ovechkin 07: 46
Ovechkin 23: 42

Matthews could catch Ovechkin, but he is making it hard if he is going to beat Ovechkin with consistency instead of having multiple awesome peak seasons like a Brett Hull.

 

[JianYang]

Just off the top of the head, if he scores 40 on average for a decade that takes him to 36 years old, he'll be at 699 goals.

If he scores 50 on average over a decade he'll be at 799, 4th place and still behind Ovechkin.

I doubt he'll get there. Could definitely be top 10 when his career is done, maybe top 5 if he stays healthy and can play long

That really puts it in perspective. Averaging 50 goals for a decade would still leave Matthews short.

It's an easy no.

 

[deleted user]

Lol.. no.

 

[ES]

Seven years from draft Ovechkin leads 301-299.

Ovie lost one season due to lockout, Matthews have lost about half a season due to COVID-shortened seasons.

 

[Fatass]

Kind of dumb comparing goals per game for a guy in his prime to a guy who will soon be 38 years old. Matthews scoring per game will likely drop dramatically as he ages just like most players not named Ovechkin.
That’s what makes Ovechkin so unique and why he is challenging Gretzky’s ‘untouchable’ record.

Matthews and Ovechkin aren’t really close or comparable at all.

Yup. OV is clearly a top 10 all time player. Is Matthews even top 10 in the league right now?

 

[YoRy]

Matthews games: 481. Goals. 299
Ovechkin games. 475. Goals. 301

Matthews (19-25) — 42,7 goal/season
Ovechkin (20-25) — 50,1 goal/season
Ovechkin (31-37) — 42,4 goal/season

Identical. Just old Ovi.
The age comparison works against Matthews. He started early, but he's still behind by age 26.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Seems like almost everyone reached the consensus, but I’d like to add one more thing.

Matthews doesn’t just have injury history, his injuries are hand/wrist related. These sorts of injuries don’t always heal 100%, and they’re extremely problematic for a sniper like Matthews who relies on is his wrist shot a lot to score.

I agree but Ovi had some injuries too. Looks to me if Matthews can stay even moderately healthy next season he will have missed less games than Ovechkin in his their first 8 seasons Also, Matthews scored 60 and won the Rocket after the wrist problems surfaced. He scores in many ways, not just with the wrister.

 

[Despote]

I agree but Ovi had some injuries too. Looks to me if Matthews can stay even moderately healthy next season he will have missed less games than Ovechkin in his their first 8 seasons Also, Matthews scored 60 and won the Rocket after the wrist problems surfaced. He scores in many ways, not just with the wrister.

Matthews has already missed more games than Ovechkin has in his entire career.

 

[SUX2BU]

 

[BigEezyE22]

Not the way he dresses.

 

[HFpapi]

People saying they are close through age 26 or 450ish games or whatever aren't realizing that what Matthews has done so far is the easy part.

Lot's of players in the NHL's history have potted many 40-50 even 60-70 goal seasons and had comparable goal totals by age 26.

Only Ovechkin however has ever continued to truck along and put up those 50 goal seasons all throughout his 26-36 years. His back 9 was basically as good as his front 9 in terms of strictly goal totals.

That's the hard part and that's what separates Ovechkin.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I agree but Ovi had some injuries too. Looks to me if Matthews can stay even moderately healthy next season he will have missed less games than Ovechkin in his their first 8 seasons Also, Matthews scored 60 and won the Rocket after the wrist problems surfaced. He scores in many ways, not just with the wrister.

Matthews missed 55 games so far in his career (7 seasons). Ovechkin missed 56 games in his career (18 seasons).

If you were to only check Ovechkin’s first 7 seasons, that number is 21 games. Many of Ovechkin’s missed games earlier in his career were due to suspensions. Below is the breakdown of all 56 games he missed:

• 32 games to injury (6 of which were due to a scrap with Columbus’s Jason Chimera in 2009)
• 7 games for on-ice disciplinary reasons (3 suspensions total)
• 6 games for family/personal reasons
• 6 games due to COVID protocol (including 2 in 2022)
• 3 games suspended for skipping the All-Star game
• 1 game for oversleeping – punished by the team
• 1 game because the regulars sat for a meaningless Game 82

I know Matthews had wrist issues even before hitting 60, I’m just talking about this issue potentially resurfacing when he is much older like Ovechkin is now.