Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

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Faltorvo

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Feb 18, 2008
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Some important questions regarding Stamkos:

How effective will Stamkos be when we're ready to compete regularly for a playoff spot in 3-4 years from now?

How effective will Stamkos be when we're ready to be a Stanley Cup competitor in 5-7 years from now?

Are we, and is Stamkos, ready to possibly waste his prime years during the current rebuild?

I'm not sure the bolded is a absolute timeline.

I may be a diehard tanker but I can see some paths that have us competing for a PO spot in 2017/2018 , mind you some things have to fall into place.

we add

Stammer
Mathews/Laine ,in their 2nd nhl season, same for
Marner
Nylander

just to scratch the surface of the premise and possibility.
 

BayStreetBully

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Oct 25, 2007
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Some important questions regarding Stamkos:

How effective will Stamkos be when we're ready to compete regularly for a playoff spot in 3-4 years from now?

How effective will Stamkos be when we're ready to be a Stanley Cup competitor in 5-7 years from now?

Are we, and is Stamkos, ready to possibly waste his prime years during the current rebuild?

That is a consideration for Stamkos for sure. Yes, he probably would love to be a Leaf when times are good, but how much more losing can he stomach? I know we can sell him on being part of a bigger rebuild, but he might just think, "that's your problem, not mine. I'm not getting any younger, and I've paid my dues on a losing team. I want to have fun winning now."

For that reason alone, I can see truth to rumors saying he wouldn't choose Toronto in 2016. Crazy how he probably thought back in 2008 that he could sign with the contending Leafs by 2016.
 

BayStreetBully

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Oct 25, 2007
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I'm not sure the bolded is a absolute timeline.

I may be a diehard tanker but I can see some paths that have us competing for a PO spot in 2017/2018 , mind you some things have to fall into place.

we add

Stammer
Mathews/Laine ,in their 2nd nhl season, same for
Marner
Nylander

just to scratch the surface of the premise and possibility.

To play devil's advocate: apart from Rielly, our defensive core is in shambles, and there is no one coming on the horizon. No top prospect. Any draft pick used in 2016 will be more ready around 2020. The Leafs will need to find a way to revamp the D through trade.
 

Babcocks Marner

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Mar 3, 2015
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People have become so age obsessed it's frightening. They're worried about a player like Stamkos in his early 30s? For context, Dion Phaneuf is 31. Makes $7 million, has 5 years left on his deal. Didn't have an issue moving on from that.

Well Dion I would also worry about in 2-3 years :laugh: just because his skating is already declining.

But Stamkos even at 8 years, is fully done at 34.

Like I said, if you are going to sign someone till 34, than they better be a work horse, and Stamkos is that.

People also seem to forget, in 3.5 years... guess who is left on the Leafs?

Rielly (Since he will be signed 100%)
Gardnier
Kessel retention
Horton

That's it :laugh:

We got cap
 

Al14

Registered User
Jul 13, 2007
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I'm not sure the bolded is a absolute timeline.

I may be a diehard tanker but I can see some paths that have us competing for a PO spot in 2017/2018 , mind you some things have to fall into place.

we add

Stammer
Mathews/Laine ,in their 2nd nhl season, same for
Marner
Nylander

just to scratch the surface of the premise and possibility.


I hope so, however, I see this as a very optimistic view. For me, I see us being ready to easily make the playoffs by the 2019-2020 season.

I think we'll be on the playoff bubble for the 2018-2019 season at the earliest.

I hope we make the playoffs earlier, however, it'll take a lot of pieces falling into place and a great deal of luck IMHO.
 

Razz

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Jan 23, 2011
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I think a lot of people tend to forget, Stamkos has to consider a 7 or 8 year commitment, not simply 3-4. He has to examine more than just how good a team is right now which in my opinion is lower in the priority list, what's more important especially for his age is where the team is going to be. If I were him, I'd look hard at the foundation of any potential franchise.

In this, I really think Toronto is more appealing than the "insiders" think. The Leafs have arguably the best coach in hockey, probably one of the most respected GMs in hockey and a hall of famer forward thinking President. Furthermore, a top notch scouting staff headed up by Mark Hunter whom I'm sure he knows well due to being from the area.

Anyone worth their salt knows Toronto will be on the rise and the fans are in sync with the plan. This has not happened in Toronto in a long time, the momentum is there.

Stamkos to Toronto is a very real possibility. If he was older and only had a few years left, this would be a different story entirely. Stamkos is probably looking for an organization to plant roots in, whether that be with Tampa, Toronto or elsewhere.
 

Menzinger

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In the end, his agent will do what Stamkos ultimately wants, or, they risk being fired and replaced. So, if Stamkos wants the Leafs, and, Leafs want him, and, they both can agree to contract dollars and term, then, he signs! Simple as that.

Personally I feel the "discount " that Stamkos may/will give the Leafs is to agree to sign here in the first place.

A bottom of a league team with a high provincial tax rate will need to offset those negatives by a high salary but maybe Llu Babcock and Shanahan will be able to convince him otherwise
 

Faltorvo

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Feb 18, 2008
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To play devil's advocate: apart from Rielly, our defensive core is in shambles, and there is no one coming on the horizon. No top prospect. Any draft pick used in 2016 will be more ready around 2020. The Leafs will need to find a way to revamp the D through trade.

I think revamp/shambles is a little harsh. We are just talking about honestly competing just for a playoff slot, right? I thinks Guards is a useful piece .

That's 1.5 years from now

by the looks of it , we should have some cap wiggle room, so UFA adds are not out of the question , at the very least UFAs and our prospects should be able to fill the 5th/6/7th slots and if we list Rielly as a #1/2 and Guards is a #3/4

The only serious holes would/should be a useful 1/2 and 3/4. Now one has to ask , are those 2 holes big enough to prevent a team from earning a wildcard?

I'd say , it depends on who we have inadequately filling those holes.

I look at a team like Florida who finished 2nd last 1.5 years ago and realise, it's not a impossible task.
 
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ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
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Some important questions regarding Stamkos:

How effective will Stamkos be when we're ready to compete regularly for a playoff spot in 3-4 years from now?

How effective will Stamkos be when we're ready to be a Stanley Cup competitor in 5-7 years from now?

Are we, and is Stamkos, ready to possibly waste his prime years during the current rebuild?

Why are those questions important?
Those are your timelines, not necessarily Stamkos or the Leafs timelines.
 

Faltorvo

Registered User
Feb 18, 2008
21,067
1,941
I hope so, however, I see this as a very optimistic view. For me, I see us being ready to easily make the playoffs by the 2019-2020 season.

I think we'll be on the playoff bubble for the 2018-2019 season at the earliest.

I hope we make the playoffs earlier, however, it'll take a lot of pieces falling into place and a great deal of luck IMHO.

Oh I would say I am spending less optimism of us making it compared to us getting 2 of

stammer
Mathews
laine

my thought process has no hope IMO, if the 2 out 3 thing does not happen.

I look at Florida finishing 2nd last 1.5 years ago and where they are now , now I'm not asking for or saying #2 in the east , all I'm talking about is a wildcard or a honest solid shot at it.
 

BayStreetBully

Registered User
Oct 25, 2007
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Toronto
I think revamp/shambles is a little harsh. We are just talking about honestly competing just for a playoff slot, right? I thinks Guards is a useful piece .

That's 1.5 years from now

by the looks of if , we should have some cap wiggle room, so UFA adds are not out of the question , at the very least UFAs and our prospects should be able to fill the 5th/6/7th slots and if we list Rielly as a #1/2 and Guards is a #3/4

The only serious holes would/should be a useful 1/2 and 3/4. Now one has to ask , are those 2 holes big enough to prevent a team from earning a wildcard?

I'd say , it depends on who we have inadequately filling those holes.

I look at a team like Florida who finished 2nd last 1.5 years ago and realise, it's not a impossible task.

Well, I look at yesterday's defense at it's not a stretch to call it terrible. Rielly is a top pairing d-man, and Gardiner is a 2nd pairing d-man. Polak is serviceable but will be gone. Hunwick would be better as a 2nd pairing d-man and maybe isn't even part of our future. The rest are just fillers. We could still use another top pairing d-man and another 2nd pairing d-man moving forward. And I don't see us finding that top pairing d-man internally as of this point.

The most likely scenario I think is getting one through UFA or taking one off a contending roster that they can't afford to pay anymore.
 

FlareKnight

Registered User
Jun 26, 2006
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Alberta
This happened with Babcock too :laugh:

It's like déjà vu !

Pretty sure it was Dreger who said Babcock was unlikely to come here as well :laugh:
Yeah, I just kind of chuckle at Dreger's report. I think nothing else has been proven with the current Leafs that he has no freaking clue what will happen. Nonis is gone, his sources are history. I somehow doubt he knows any more about Stamkos's personal preferences as he did with Babcock.

Could Stamkos want to go elsewhere? Yeah. May want to win sooner than later. But could easily be like Babcock and want to win here. If Shanahan can convince Babcock to join the fold I wouldn't put it past him and this group to convince anyone.
 

Faltorvo

Registered User
Feb 18, 2008
21,067
1,941
I think a lot of people tend to forget, Stamkos has to consider a 7 or 8 year commitment, not simply 3-4. He has to examine more than just how good a team is right now which in my opinion is lower in the priority list, what's more important especially for his age is where the team is going to be. If I were him, I'd look hard at the foundation of any potential franchise.

In this, I really think Toronto is more appealing than the "insiders" think. The Leafs have arguably the best coach in hockey, probably one of the most respected GMs in hockey and a hall of famer forward thinking President. Furthermore, a top notch scouting staff headed up by Mark Hunter whom I'm sure he knows well due to being from the area.

Anyone worth their salt knows Toronto will be on the rise and the fans are in sync with the plan. This has not happened in Toronto in a long time, the momentum is there.

Stamkos to Toronto is a very real possibility. If he was older and only had a few years left, this would be a different story entirely. Stamkos is probably looking for an organization to plant roots in, whether that be with Tampa, Toronto or elsewhere.

I would like to add in this little nugget.

We are set to finish in/near the basement , yes?

Where is all the screaming/freaking out by the media/fans regarding this topic, where is the EPIC drama?

Remember ALL THE BS we heard from (nope not gonna say it) AHA, "i'll informed folks that this media, this fans base ,could not ,would not stand for this.

Any chance we are now seen in a different light as a fanbase/media by possible UFAs?

Maybe management and ownership deserves a salute on that front.
 

Faltorvo

Registered User
Feb 18, 2008
21,067
1,941
Well, I look at yesterday's defense at it's not a stretch to call it terrible. Rielly is a top pairing d-man, and Gardiner is a 2nd pairing d-man. Polak is serviceable but will be gone. Hunwick would be better as a 2nd pairing d-man and maybe isn't even part of our future. The rest are just fillers. We could still use another top pairing d-man and another 2nd pairing d-man moving forward. And I don't see us finding that top pairing d-man internally as of this point.

The most likely scenario I think is getting one through UFA or taking one off a contending roster that they can't afford to pay anymore.

Oh bay, I hear what you are saying and fully agree that work has to be done.

But once again I want to point out, that we are only debating about grabbing the last wildcard spot.

Not every hole has to be properly filled to pull that off.

Properly competing for the cup is a completely different debate and timeline.
 

BayStreetBully

Registered User
Oct 25, 2007
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Toronto
Oh bay, I hear what you are saying and fully agree that work has to be done.

But once again I want to point out, that we are only debating about grabbing the last wildcard spot.

Not every hole has to be properly filled to pull that off.

Properly competing for the cup is a completely different debate and timeline.

Ok that's fair. You don't need a great D to get 8th seed.
 

hockeywiz542

Registered User
May 26, 2008
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5,014

for the time being, nothing has changed. As much as we would like to conjure up a multitude of trade scenarios, unless told otherwise in the days ahead, it’s believed stamkos is intent on doing what he can to help tampa bay vie for the stanley cup in june.

This isn't going to cool the speculation and desperate hope of maple leafs fans who are more than willing to wait, anticipating stamkos will arrive at air canada centre on july 1 in a blue and white limo flanked by mike babcock on one side and brendan shanahan and lou lamoriello on the other, eager to introduce their newest and perhaps most prized possession.

Nothing sparks a rebuild like convincing one of the game’s brightest stars to sign on for seven years at $12 million per to jump-start the long trek back to stanley cup contention.

Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it likely? Not when you sift through the facts stamkos is consuming as he weaves his way through the regular season, playoffs and then into a boardroom at newport sports to meticulously hammer out the contract of his career.

First of all, it's still a large assumption steve yzerman and lightning ownership won't or can't find the balance between good business and keeping stamkos, a key cog in their long-term plans. It's unlikely tampa bay will move from $8.5 million to $12 million, a figure i use in relation to the leafs because if stamkos is giving up two, three, or more contending years, he's going to get paid to do it and paid large. So, provided the lightning move a bit on the money, there's no reason to think his days in florida are numbered.

Beyond signing an extension, stamkos will obviously have multiple options if a decision is made to go to market. Teams will be packing offers creatively mapping out the financial benefits, endorsement ideas and, most importantly, convincing arguments on why stamkos is the missing piece in their stanley cup puzzle.

Toronto could be near the front of this line in terms of offers, bells and whistles, stamkos street signs, etc. However, further analysis charts their chances at this stage as remote.

When the leafs win toronto is electric, among the best playoff cities in the world. But, when things aren't going well, which has been often for this franchise over recent years, this city and market can be a cesspool.

Stalking media digging for scoops (including tsn insiders). Talk radio picking apart you, your game, your family, your lifestyle...it gets rabid. It gets ugly. In canada, it comes with the territory.

Make no mistake, balancing the long list of positives the leafs and toronto might be able to provide is the vast collection of negatives that go hand in hand. Seldom are they overlooked by unrestricted free agents in their decision making.
 

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
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To those concerned about his age, remember that Mats Sundin was only a couple of years younger when we acquired him, and he had 13 great years here.
 

saminator

Registered User
Jan 24, 2016
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The only real question I have about Stamkos is when people say hes going to leave the Lightning to win a stanley cup. Wouldn't it make more sense for him to stay with the lightning then since they are contenders, plus what contender can afford stamkos? If he get's to free agency don't count out our boy's Shanny, Babs and Lou doing some major convincing.
 

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
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Oh, and the fact that Dreger thinks it's a longshot gives me even more optimism.
 

p.l.f.

use the force
Feb 27, 2002
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if we get stamkos we would have to be in a win now mode such as he's hitting his prime years
presently we have a 5 yr+ rebuild plan built mostly around players younger than Morgan Rielly
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
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The only real question I have about Stamkos is when people say hes going to leave the Lightning to win a stanley cup. Wouldn't it make more sense for him to stay with the lightning then since they are contenders, plus what contender can afford stamkos? If he get's to free agency don't count out our boy's Shanny, Babs and Lou doing some major convincing.

I think there's a broken relationship there. Not necessarily a cup thing.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
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if we get stamkos we would have to be in a win now mode such as he's hitting his prime years
presently we have a 5 yr+ rebuild plan built mostly around players younger than Morgan Rielly

How is it certain we have a 5+ year rebuild ahead of us? We have a good group of prospects, the next two drafts promise to inject more bluechip lottery picks and plenty of other picks, and we have $20 million in cap space.

Right now we have Marner, Nylander, Brown, Kapanen, Timashov, Johnson, etc in the system waiting to be injected in the next two years, the 2016 and 2017 picks in similar situation, and whatever $20 million may buy you on the market. That represents a huge chunk of turnover that's just waiting to happen.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
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I think there's a broken relationship there. Not necessarily a cup thing.

Yep - there definitely seems to be a tense relationship with Cooper.

Having to play wing and not getting a good replacement lineman for St Louis seem to have soured the relationship for sure.

Is somewhat cold comments to the media about his future also seem to indicate hat he wants to leave - or at least get a guarantee from Yzerman that things will change for him on the Bolts.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
79,370
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Yep - there definitely seems to be a tense relationship with Cooper.

Having to play wing and not getting a good replacement lineman for St Louis seem to have soured the relationship for sure.

Is somewhat cold comments to the media about his future also seem to indicate hat he wants to leave - or at least get a guarantee from Yzerman that things will change for him on the Bolts.

Sounds like he's just going to go to market, originally wanted to pursue a cup run this year in Tampa, but may just get out of dodge if the situation's right.

In the end he controls everything. The negotiation at the deadline may be an 8th year for Stamkos (traded to his destination of choice) for some return for Tampa.
 
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