Who wins the first game of the regular season: Leafs or Jets?

[Weezeric]

I think every team tries to reduce the number of injuries, not just the Leafs.

It would be easier to support the theory that the Leafs' low injury total last season was due to smart management and coaching if the Leafs weren't near the very top of the NHL in injuries the prior season (2015/16) with the same GM and coach.

Any reasonable assessment would conclude that injuries constrained the Jets' performance last season, and lack of injuries contributed to the Leafs' success. I don't think there is much of an evidentiary basis to project that the Jets and Leafs will have such a huge a discrepancy in injuries next season and beyond.

Maybe the leafs should invest in teaching their players how to win a shootout...

Oh right! Shootouts are totally luck dependant and not getting injured is a skill.....

 

[TDK67]

I think every team tries to reduce the number of injuries, not just the Leafs.

It would be easier to support the theory that the Leafs' low injury total last season was due to smart management and coaching if the Leafs weren't near the very top of the NHL in injuries the prior season (2015/16) with the same GM and coach.

Any reasonable assessment would conclude that injuries constrained the Jets' performance last season, and lack of injuries contributed to the Leafs' success. I don't think there is much of an evidentiary basis to project that the Jets and Leafs will have such a huge a discrepancy in injuries next season and beyond.

But not every team has the money or resources that the Leafs do. Nor, by all accounts I've seen/read, is every team putting the focus and energy into sports science the way the Leafs are. Just because every team might do a bit of due diligence on a specific element in hockey (health, advanced stats, etc) doesn't mean that every team values those specific elements the same way.

And continuing to point to a 15-16 roster that has seen the overwhelming majority of players leaving the org (only 6-7 regulars from 15-16 are still on the Leafs) doesn't say anything about the current roster or the recent push that Shanahan and co are making in the sports science front. The only players remaining from that roster that saw significant injuries that year are JVR & Bozak (sordid history of injuries), so again, that roster is about as irrelevant to this discussion as it gets.

I never said there would be a huge discrepancy between the injury numbers of the Leafs and Jets next year. Again, I don't think the Leafs have discovered a magical method to prevent freak accidents. That doesn't mean there won't be some discrepancy between the Leafs' and Jets' injury numbers. In reality, we won't be able to definitively say anything about how effective their methods are until 4-5 years from now. BUT, the Leafs' massive push (bigger than every other team in the league) in the sports science area is very recent (past year or so) and their 3 big FA signings this summer have missed a combined 84 games out of 1,162 in the last 5 years. I just think it's foolish to look at that and say the Leafs aren't doing everything possible to ensure they can ice a roster that is generally very healthy and can stay generally very healthy.

 

[Whileee]

But not every team has the money or resources that the Leafs do. Nor, by all accounts I've seen/read, is every team putting the focus and energy into sports science the way the Leafs are. Just because every team might do a bit of due diligence on a specific element in hockey (health, advanced stats, etc) doesn't mean that every team values those specific elements the same way.

And continuing to point to a 15-16 roster that has seen the overwhelming majority of players leaving the org (only 6-7 regulars from 15-16 are still on the Leafs) doesn't say anything about the current roster or the recent push that Shanahan and co are making in the sports science front. The only players remaining from that roster that saw significant injuries that year are JVR & Bozak (sordid history of injuries), so again, that roster is about as irrelevant to this discussion as it gets.

I never said there would be a huge discrepancy between the injury numbers of the Leafs and Jets next year. Again, I don't think the Leafs have discovered a magical method to prevent freak accidents. That doesn't mean there won't be some discrepancy between the Leafs' and Jets' injury numbers. In reality, we won't be able to definitively say anything about how effective their methods are until 4-5 years from now. BUT, the Leafs' massive push (bigger than every other team in the league) in the sports science area is very recent (past year or so) and their 3 big FA signings this summer have missed a combined 84 games out 1,162 in the last 5 years. I just think it's foolish to look at that and say the Leafs aren't doing everything possible to ensure they can ice a roster that is generally very healthy and can stay generally very healthy.

Most teams are focused on "sports science" (which is often an oxymoron) to keep fit and avoid injuries. The Jets are no exception (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-jets-new-recovery-method-1.3515214).

I suppose time will tell whether any team will gain a sizable advantage based on strategies to avoid injuries.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Laine lost out on the Calder last year. It will take him a while to make up the gap on Matthews (I don't think he ever will tbh, as Matthews is simply the better player), even with a better year this year Laine would still be behind Matthews career-wise.

 

[TDK67]

Most teams are focused on "sports science" (which is often an oxymoron) to keep fit and avoid injuries. The Jets are no exception (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-jets-new-recovery-method-1.3515214).

I suppose time will tell whether any team will gain a sizable advantage based on strategies to avoid injuries.

Maybe you missed this part:

But not every team has the money or resources that the Leafs do. Nor, by all accounts I've seen/read, is every team putting the focus and energy into sports science the way the Leafs are. Just because every team might do a bit of due diligence on a specific element in hockey (health, advanced stats, etc) doesn't mean that every team values those specific elements the same way.

 

[nbwingsfan]

What he could have done was not skate through the middle with his head "to the side"

It's a suicide pass, you have to look away to get those, pretty common sense.

Or do you think players never have their head down?

I don't think the Leafs have found the magical solution to be 100% injury free but on the other hand I think it's equally silly to pretend they're not actively trying to move the needle in that area. Like TheDoldrums said, the Leafs have supposedly become one of the biggest (if not #1) investors in the sports science department while also simultaneously continuing to bring in players with little to no injury history. Nobody can prevent freak accidents from ocurring, but its management's literal job to try and give their organization every possible competitive advantage in the league. Managements typically play a game of inches (or increments) so this is just another small but real thing some organizations are trying to get an edge in. Just because the Jets don't have the same resources (or interest?) to pursue this doesn't mean its voodoo garbage.

Not sure why this is so hard to believe or understand.

Literally every single team puts money and time into "sports science" and I don't see anything anywhere that says Toronto puts more emphasis than every single other team?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It's a suicide pass, you have to look away to get those, pretty common sense.

Or do you think players never have their head down?



Literally every single team puts money and time into "sports science" and I don't see anything anywhere that says Toronto puts more emphasis than every single other team?

did you miss the post right above yours?

 

[Whileee]

Maybe you missed this part:

I just posted reference to the Jets' efforts in this regard. I haven't seen the evidence that the Leafs put more resources into this than the Jets, as an example.

 

[nbwingsfan]

did you miss the post right above yours?

Where does it say the Leafs do more than any other team other than him just saying so cause they have money?

 

[TDK67]

I just posted reference to the Jets' efforts in this regard. I haven't seen the evidence that the Leafs put more resources into this than the Jets, as an example.

The article you posted talks about a fitness director and a recovery method he's "developed". Nothing about sports science or additional resources in that regard. In fact I can't find anything online about the Jets having a whole department dedicated to "sports science" or anything of that ilk. Maybe I'm missing something.

Literally every single team puts money and time into "sports science" and I don't see anything anywhere that says Toronto puts more emphasis than every single other team?

Here's a basic google search for "NHL sports science department"

Only the Pens and Leafs turn up results in relation to such a department.

Here are some quotes from a few articles regarding the Leafs' sports science department.

TheStar

For the past couple of seasons the Leafs have ploughed millions into the latest and greatest innovations in athlete optimization, acquiring various gizmos with the same verve with which GM Lou Lamoriello has been stockpiling fourth-line glue guys.

Decisions on the need for rest days, for instance, may or may not be made with input from the Catapult GPS tracking system worn by players in practice. (The Raptors, who’ve been using the same system for a few years, have credited the data Catapult produces with making them one of the most injury-averse organizations in the NBA.)

More recent additions to the fold are two dressing-room cryotherapy tanks wherein players are immersed from the neck down in a temporary freeze that dips around minus-110C...Also: a hot tub, a cold tub, a steam room and a dry sauna — all of which, depending on which Leaf you ask, apparently have merits as wellness enhancers.

Head coach Mike Babcock has dismissively referred to the organization’s army of research-journal-reading employees, headed by performance director Dr. Jeremy Bettle, as “the science project.

What can’t be argued is that the Maple Leafs look like a team sparing little expense in pursuit of excellence, which hasn’t always been the case.

“They don’t skimp,†said Martin of the Maple Leafs. “It says they’re doing whatever they can to help us be our best — and in the end that’s all you can ask for.â€

EditorinLeaf:

"With the medical staff gone, Shannahan began flexing MLSE’s financial muscle, which included installing a performance sports science division. This division’s task was to redefine how Leafs players performed, recovered and most notably, properly addressed injuries."

The Athletic:

“I know Toronto is on the cutting edge with their sports science division and what they do for their players,†Marleau told TSN 1050 earlier this month. “They’re on top of it. They’re on top of the nutrition. They’re on the top pushing players when they need to be pushed. I think that’s going to benefit me.â€

Bettle also introduced Catapult Sports technology tracking to the Leafs. The system tracks the mechanical load of a skater while they are on the ice. If there are deviations in a player's performance, the GPS tracking technology will identify it and decrease the chance of soft tissue injuries which could develop into serious problems down the road.

The shift in thinking meant the Leafs were adopting a different philosophy. There were wholesale changes in management that season including Mike Babcock signing on as coach in Toronto. Along with his own standards of practice, he implemented some of the intel from the sports science staff to include giving players more rest days. Veterans or players dealing with an ailment of any magnitude would take practices off with the intention of having a more optimal performance on game day.

(worth noting that all of these articles credit the Leafs sports science division with the reduction in injuries this past year, but I didn't quote those sections since HF experts seem to think it's a ludicrous concept )

There's no source that discloses how much the Leafs are spending versus other teams, but reading between the lines seems to make it very clear that the Leafs are on the forefront of this work in the league and are at the very least "ploughing millions" into it which I'm not sure most teams are financially capable of doing at all.

 

[TheDoldrums]

There's no source that discloses how much the Leafs are spending versus other teams, but reading between the lines seems to make it very clear that the Leafs are on the forefront of this work in the league and are at the very least "ploughing millions" into it which I'm not sure most teams are financially capable of doing at all.

Incredible that you have to defend the idea that the team with the most resources is putting the most money into this department.

These are the ways that rich teams operate in a salary cap league. They throw money at everything outside of player salaries to gain any advantage. It's why the Leafs have the highest paid coaches in the league. Yet some people here think that every team is the same, like Arizona is putting as much money into their medical staff as Toronto. It's absurd.

Besides, Toronto's approach to health was only a part of my original point. There's also the fact that the Jets rely on a bunch of players who habitually get hurt, so I won't be surprised when they have injury problems in the future yet again.

 

[Flair Hay]

Canucks were doing this stuff back when Gillis was GM and they weren't the first. Leafs amd Pens have caught up. That's why they are the ones talking about it.

That said I could see the Jets lagging behind in this department. Even if that has little to do with bad injury luck.

 

[TDK67]

Canucks were doing this stuff back when Gillis was GM and they weren't the first. Leafs amd Pens have caught up. That's why they are the ones talking about it.

That said I could see the Jets lagging behind in this department. Even if that has little to do with bad injury luck.

Source?

 

[TDK67]

Incredible that you have to defend the idea that the team with the most resources is putting the most money into this department.

These are the ways that rich teams operate in a salary cap league. They throw money at everything outside of player salaries to gain any advantage. It's why the Leafs have the highest paid coaches in the league. Yet some people here think that every team is the same, like Arizona is putting as much money into their medical staff as Toronto. It's absurd.

Besides, Toronto's approach to health was only a part of my original point. There's also the fact that the Jets rely on a bunch of players who habitually get hurt, so I won't be surprised when they have injury problems in the future yet again.

Agreed. Guys like Myers and Bozak have long injury histories and have rarely ever played a full season. Foolish to expect that to change as they age.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Predicting who wins any one single game in a season is a fools errand...

Flip a coin.

 

[Whileee]

Incredible that you have to defend the idea that the team with the most resources is putting the most money into this department.

These are the ways that rich teams operate in a salary cap league. They throw money at everything outside of player salaries to gain any advantage. It's why the Leafs have the highest paid coaches in the league. Yet some people here think that every team is the same, like Arizona is putting as much money into their medical staff as Toronto. It's absurd.

Besides, Toronto's approach to health was only a part of my original point. There's also the fact that the Jets rely on a bunch of players who habitually get hurt, so I won't be surprised when they have injury problems in the future yet again.

Weren't the Leafs trying to sign Stamkos?

I'll be watching with interest to see if the Leafs maintain their very low injury rate this season.

 

[TDK67]

Weren't the Leafs trying to sign Stamkos?

I'll be watching with interest to see if the Leafs maintain their very low injury rate this season.

Big difference between the willingness to gamble on the health of a Top 5-10C and the willingness to gamble on the health of role players.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Predicting who wins any one single game in a season is a fools errand...

Flip a coin.

Not true at all, Toronto has NJ on October 11, they have a MUCH better chance to win that game than NJ does and that was with a healthy NJ team.

Now Zajac is out the chances of them beating Toronto drop even further.

Same can be said about the NYR, their center position does not stack up they have have a great D but they have nothing that can match up with Matthews.

Even Chicago isn't what they were, they lost Hammer, Hossa, Krurger and Panarin not to mention Darling I expect Toronto to beat them too assuming Toronto is healthy

I would argue Predicting hockey is among the easier sports to predict and it has nothing to do with advanced stats it has to do with knowing rosters and knowing what teams lost vs what they gained

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

For Winnipeg to have any chance they have to stay out of the box, Toronto had the #2 PP and that was before they added Marleau, Now they have added Marleau so there is reason to believe the PP should be even better than it was at least % wise.

if the Jets don't stay out of the box they lose.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Not true at al, Toronto has NJ on October 11, they have a MUCH better chance to win that game than NJ does and that was with a healthy NJ team.

Now Zajac is out the chances of them beating Toronto drop even further.

Same can be said about the NYR, their center position does not stack up they have have a great D but they have nothing that can match up with Matthews.

Even Chicago isn't what they were, they lost Hammer, Hossa, Krurger and Panarin not to mention Darling I expect Toronto to beat them too assuming Toronto is healthy

I would argue Predicting hockey is among the easier sports to predict and it has nothing to do with advanced stats it has to do with knowing rosters and knowing what teams lost vs what they gained

Predicting the first game of the season with no relevant regular season data is a coin flip. The teams split the series last year, the Jets are at home. This match is a total coin flip.

Later into the season I assume that the ability to predict outcomes becomes a bit easier but there's still random upsets.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Predicting the first game of the season with no relevant regular season data is a coin flip. The teams split the series last year, the Jets are at home. This match is a total coin flip.

Later into the season I assume that the ability to predict outcomes becomes a bit easier but there's still random upsets.

but you said "any" game, hence why I picked NJ because you can look at that game right now, about 5 weeks before it happens and you can say that is a game Toronto should win, and that is even if Zajac was healthy.

Zajac isn't healthy he will not play and chances are A the devils will not win and B it will not be close, NJ does not have the firepower up front that a healthy Toronto team has so assuming Toronto is healthy, and granted that is the unknown Toronto is highly likely to win because as of now we don't know if Toronto will be healthy but we do know NJ won't be.

 

[snowkiddin]

Based on some of the comments in this thread, some people better really hope that the Leafs don't have any injuries this year. Otherwise, they're gonna look like fools...

 

[kelsier]

Spending millions on scientific research (where often results or benefits are being seen far into the future) and having one season with less injuries compared to other teams seems more of a coincidence than a result of ground-breaking science when talking about contact sports. Guess we'll see in the following season(s) if the Leafs have some major advantage on this particular field.

Unless the Jets run into an injury spree during the pre-season I hardly see this having much relevance to the topic. Anyway, couldn't imagine a more exciting match-up for a season opener. From more personal perspective, getting to see how far Laine has developed during the summer, let alone playing against the team he scored his first hat-trick against. A goal in the first shift?

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Spending millions on scientific research (where often results or benefits are being seen far into the future) and having one season with less injuries compared to other teams seems more of a coincidence than a result of ground-breaking science when talking about contact sports. Guess we'll see in the following season(s) if the Leafs have some major advantage on this particular field.

Unless the Jets run into an injury spree during the pre-season I hardly see this having much relevance to the topic. Anyway, couldn't imagine a more exciting match-up for a season opener. From more personal perspective, getting to see how far Laine has developed during the summer, let alone playing against the team he scored his first hat-trick against. A goal in the first shift?

I think 19 year old Laine will be a lot different than 18 year old Laine. This has to be their year.

 

[Narow]

Laine lost out on the Calder last year. It will take him a while to make up the gap on Matthews (I don't think he ever will tbh, as Matthews is simply the better player), even with a better year this year Laine would still be behind Matthews career-wise.

Sounds like insecurity...

So far matthews is ahead with 5 points and 4 goals in regular season and his playoff run...in 15 more games...

Matthews was the better player last year slightly...nothing is set in stone and they could just as well switch places for better player year by year...one thing is certain both will be among the better players of the league...