Proposal: Who do we move Morgan Rielly for?

[The Apologist]

Rielly's biggest value is being an effective 5-5 bug minute guy. Im not married to him on the powerplay, however. A guy like Sandin might thrive there even thiugh he may be less effective 5-5

Based on?

Again, he has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL on the powerplay for several years now.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Given how insanely good Sandin apparently already is I'm not looking forward to what his asking price will be.

I'll get a "What should we trade Sandin for" thread started.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Odd that he was a big part of a good PP before any of them were Leafs too eh? Just lucky I guess.

And this is not even taking into account how much more important he's been 5 on 5 on this team.

Anyway, moving on.


Oddly enough no. Just Rielly.

I’m not even gonna look but I’m sure the years we drafted 8th, 4th and 1st we didn’t have a good PP the prior year

 

[Mickey Marner]

How can Rielly's partner not even be on the list when he played with Rielly for pretty much all 5 on 5 minutes? See alot of other pairings on there but no Brodie is really strange.

Sample size is way too small and numbers are pro-rated to 60 minutes. He's played he's only played 35 5v5 minutes with about 7 minutes apart from Brodie. Those 7 minutes are pro-rated to 12 minutes, so 5/12 (~42%) of those minutes apart are an imaginary pace, as well as 25/60 of the total minutes.

 

[Griffin76]

I like Rielly. My point is don’t anoint him the PP QB and give him all the credit for the success we had especially when it’s very clear that he is not the PP QB.
Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Spezza

Are all bigger factors of the success of our PP

But when it's struggling then it's Rielly's fault?

 

[ALine]

Based on watching leafs games. PP's clicked well in the past with Rielly as a mainstay, but it shouldn't be written in stone. Sandin's a high IQ guy but doesn't have the wheels like Rielly, I see him more a middle pairing guy that could help a PP aswell, vs Rielly who is a bonafide #1 5 vs 5. I guess its more of a minute share thing where if sandin can take over the pp role, you have Rielly first over the boards when we're back to even strength.

If you were looking for a wall of stats to back my claim ala poster 'zeke', well that ain't me, friend

 

[123offtheglass]

Don't think they should shop Rielly but should listen on offers; worst case he's a solid own-rental & a leader for a team that's in win-now mode.

Winnipeg 2022 1st round pick + Mason Appleton

Something like this I could see. Appleton is a solid add with a good cap hit, & the pick adds to their trade bait. Could be worthwhile if they had a plan to utilize the cap space gained.

 

[Stonehands1990]

But when it's struggling then it's Rielly's fault?

No. When it’s struggling you look at why it’s struggling. Personally what I’ve seen is because Rielly refuses to shoot the penalty killers just tighten up on Matthews & Marner. Also our puck movement is too slow and predictable and a good portion of that falls on Rielly as well. He always takes a 1/2 second extra to think

Go watch Boston, Colorado or Washington on the PP. Rapid puck movement so the PK can’t get set

 

[demonslayer]

Don't think they should shop Rielly but should listen on offers; worst case he's a solid own-rental & a leader for a team that's in win-now mode.

Something like this I could see. Appleton is a solid add with a good cap hit, & the pick adds to their trade bait. Could be worthwhile if they had a plan to utilize the cap space gained.

Dougie Hamilton

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Winnipeg 2022 1st round pick + Mason Appleton

Lol forget about that. I'd rather just keep Rielly for playoffs and let him walk as UFA

 

[Petrus]

Hmmm, most of the guys are from Boston, Colorado, Toronto and Carolina. I wonder what that means?

For us, it likely means Morgs is not trying to force offence and focusing on being more cognizant of his defensive responsibilities.

 

[LeafGrief]

We only trade Rielly if we lose in this first round and we need to semi-blow things up tbh. He's a playoff performer and our #1D on a great contract for next year. I don't care that he's mediocre defensively, he's a good player and we're looking to maximize having good players on the team.

If we could sign Hamilton to a cheap deal then we would ship out Rielly for the fit. But scenarios generally end after that because it makes the team worse.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Sample size is way too small and numbers are pro-rated to 60 minutes. He's played he's only played 35 5v5 minutes with about 7 minutes apart from Brodie. Those 7 minutes are pro-rated to 12 minutes, so 5/12 (~42%) of those minutes apart are an imaginary pace, as well as 25/60 of the total minutes.

Oh I thought those were for the regular season lol ya trying to look a xGF/GA for 2 game sample size is less than useless lol

 

[Captain14]

Mo has been so damn good these 1st 2 gms.

Elite.

Hoping it continues to increase his trade value.

 

[zeke]

Hoping it continues to increase his trade value.

Love trading away elite players. Edmonton style.

 

[Budz]

This is not a discussion for now.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Oh I thought those were for the regular season lol ya trying to look a xGF/GA for 2 game sample size is less than useless lol

The real cringey part is the person who made that graph is apparently studying economics as Harvard.

A quarter million dollars ain't worth what it used to be, I guess.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The only way I really see it happening is if we need to blow up the core and do Nylander/Marner for a D and Rielly for forward.

No. When it’s struggling you look at why it’s struggling. Personally what I’ve seen is because Rielly refuses to shoot the penalty killers just tighten up on Matthews & Marner. Also our puck movement is too slow and predictable and a good portion of that falls on Rielly as well. He always takes a 1/2 second extra to think

Go watch Boston, Colorado or Washington on the PP. Rapid puck movement so the PK can’t get set

Just the shot alone is so important. It doesn't need to be a cannon, just needs to get on net. 3/5 guys on the ice (Matthews Tavares and Nylander) are probably top-10 or 15 garbage men in the league, if you feed them enough rebounds they're going to score regardless of how cold the puck movement is. 5 for 75 or whatever it was is insane when you have those 3 sitting on the doorstep waiting to roof a bad bounce.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Based on?

Again, he has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL on the powerplay for several years now.

From 2018-2019 to now amongst D men who have played at least 200 minutes on the PP Rielly is 61st in Goals/60 and 27th in First Assists/60. Assuming every team uses 1 D man on the PP He’s actually one of the worst 1st unit guys in the league

 

[Gallagbi]

From 2018-2019 to now amongst D men who have played at least 200 minutes on the PP Rielly is 61st in Goals/60 and 27th in First Assists/60. Assuming every team uses 1 D man on the PP He’s actually one of the worst 1st unit guys in the league

In fairness he spent roughly a year of that off the top PP unit, but I'd agree he hasn't been elite on the PP for 3+ years now

 

[The Apologist]

I’m not even gonna look but I’m sure the years we drafted 8th, 4th and 1st we didn’t have a good PP the prior year

make sure you check 2013 too ok? It's ok, facts haven't been your forte so far. For a player you 'like' you sure struggle to give him any credit.

 

[moon111]

My biggest beef has been his complete lack of player awareness as he's puck-watching in his own zone. If you're a forward on the other team, it's key that you easily sneak around Rielly and are left uncovered. I saw him quickly turn his head this season and almost fell out of my chair in excitement.

 

[Stonehands1990]

In fairness he spent roughly a year of that off the top PP unit, but I'd agree he hasn't been elite on the PP for 3+ years now

Good call I forgot about that. But the point stands he’s not as elite as everyone makes him out to be. I’m fine having an above average offensive minded D man but the cap hit would need to make sense

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The real cringey part is the person who made that graph is apparently studying economics as Harvard.

A quarter million dollars ain't worth what it used to be, I guess.

What the guy is doing is nothing special. He is effectively a Tableau (or equivalent) expert, which is no different than any other business kid from a half decent university. Other than that, what they post is no better than the quick stuff that people like me post on here to make a point but with prettier visuals.

Safe to say that if anyone wanted to make the NHL as any kind of data analyst/developer, they would put a lot more time and effort into making more sophisticated stuff than what they would post on HFBoards or Twitter.

 

[Stonehands1990]

make sure you check 2013 too ok? It's ok, facts haven't been your forte so far. For a player you 'like' you sure struggle to give him any credit.

You cherry pick and then lecture people about facts? Go check 2015 and 2016 when the PP was 15%